YouSaid · the spoken record

George Noble

lines on the record: 89
first: 2022-05-09
most recent: 2022-05-09
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“So now we run the movie in reverse, and guess what happens? Not hard. So, you know, when people getting caught up in the midst of the bubble, Alberto Villar, Henry Bliga, all these guys, they were riding high. I mean, go back and look. Google them. These guys were up like 50, 60, 70 percent. And then in the ensuing years, 2001, 23, they went down like 95%. 95% I believe that that's closer to as good an approximation of the truth as any is what's going to happen to Kathy Woods. Oh, 95% Gee, George, you were wrong. Sean's going to go to 85%. I mean, look, it was 160. It's now 50. It's already gone down 70%. What's”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But it's also the growth rates for a lot of these stocks accelerated because demand was brought forward during the pandemic. So whether your Zoom or your telecom, which you had on other stocks about last week, or your Amazon, which I'm bearish on. Many of these companies had demand brought forward. So what happens? Growth accelerated. And as growth accelerated, evaluation expands. Valuation expands even more because rates are going down. So, you have peak valuation on peak earnings growth, on peak margins.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. I think that question is very well put. You know, she might be in the wrong macro environment now, but she certainly was the right macro environment before. So rather than attributing her success to skill, she had the wind at her back. Like one of the things I like people to look after. I've done this numerous times. Superimposed. Not just against Nasdaq in 2000. I mean, that one we know by now it's a bubble inflating and then bursting. But take ARC and superimpose it over Austrian 100 year bo 30 years zero coupon bond. Ticks take a really long duration asset Most people might be surprised by what they see. So you're telling me it wasn't skill after all. So it's not just the valuation expanding and compressing, as you just mentioned.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Goes up 10%, the stock probably will go up 30% if the SP 500 goes down 10%, the stock will now go down 30%. And in this particular instance, you mentioned the beta to the NASDAQ. And the NASDAQ was the most typical indicative example of stocks that went up from the COVID crisis because interest rates were so low and these very long duration, most of the money that they're going to make isn't going to be out until 2027 and that sort of thing. I want to get your take on that, as well as to what degree is investing in ARC sort of a macro call? Because I would say, George, despite all of your investment wisdom, I would go with Kathy Wood over you if the 10-year note would stay at the record low of 33 basis points. But now interest rates are rising. So at what point is it just Kathy Woods in the wrong macro environment? And it doesn't really have to do with stock picking.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because when you look at returns, you have to ask yourself how much of it is just she's a beta merchant, she's just buying the highest betum of speculative garbage she could find, and how much of its skill and security selection. And so, for instance, if you haven't looked at it the last couple weeks, but if you take ARC and compare it to the cues, QQQ just by Nasdaq. You go back enough years, she's underperformed the Q's and she took a lot more risk. The story may be right, but the price was wrong. And now she's paying the price. What I marvel at is that her assets, she's still got, she said, the arc's still taking in $700 million in inflows this year. She's running, I don't know, 40 or $50 billion. This market will not bottom. This market will not bottom until she loses all her assets.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sorry, 40 some odd percent, whatever the number was. You have to look at dollar weighted returns. And by that I mean weight the returns for when the money actually came into the fund. Back in the day at Fidelity, Peter Lynch, the greatest of all time, his fund compounded at 29% a year. That was a time weighted return. But if you looked at what the end investor actually got, it was more like, I don't know, 12% or 15%, so much lower number. You'd say, well, George, how can that be? I got news for you. It's real simple. You think FOMO was Justin Vanis? We had FOMO in Fidelity in the 80s back in the 80s, right? So people are always buying the highs. Peter's a genius. Then the market goes down. They all sell. So the average investor got a number much, much, much lower than $29%. Okay. So you look at Kathy Woods, you look at the returns. The average investor has lost money with Kathy Woods. Why? Because all the money came in at the top. So that's the first point. Second point. If you look at the risk she was taking, the beta of her portfolio.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“She literally throws stuff against the wall and sees what sticks. Her stocks, to come back to the performance record, people look at her record and they say, oh, look at the returns. But here's the problem. Those are time weighted returns. Not dollated returns. And what do I mean by that? So when you're looking at Kathy Wood's returns, don't just look at the timely return of 29%.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Runs the OTC fund or low price fund, I should say. One of the greatest managers Fideli's ever had. The story may be right, but the price is wrong. And this goes to narrative and people not doing the work and people not knowing what they own. And for that matter, Kathy would not knowing what she owns. I'm a former autoalist. I've looked at her testal models. They're not worth the paper that they're written on. Frankly, I don't care if this podcast is seen by millions and she sees this, I hope she does see this. I'm happy to debate her.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And by the way, you guys probably remember he had some of those really crazy stuff. He would do this thing. He had one thing where he had a bunch of dice or whatever in one of his cups and he shook it up. And depending on the letters that came out, that would be the stock that he was buying. And it was going up. I mean, I want to shoot myself. All right. Okay. So Kathy Wood, I'll give her credit. She's a masterful marketeer. The story is my friend Joel Tillinghas Fidelli would say.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Very good question. So let's go back to 2020. In the depths of the pandemic, when the Fed injected all this liquidity into the system, all of a sudden, David Portnoy is schooling Warren Buffett. Like, did Warren Buffett get stupid all of a sudden? Like, what happened? Did David Portnay discover the magic secret to investing?”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But as Michael Guyad, who's a good mutual friend, always says there are no such things as cycles. Those things as gurus, they're only cycles. And so I spoke before about overachieving and underachieving. Kathy Woods had her day in the sun. People say, George, you shouldn't be so hard at her. No, I am going to be so hard on her. You know why? Because she's blowing up billions of dollars of people's money. It's because we've seen this movie before. There's nothing new under the sun. In 1999, 2000, their names were Garrett von Wagner, Kevin Landis, Ryan Jacob, Henry Blodgett, Alberto Villar, who actually went up going to prison. The same old, same old. Except go back to your question where I started this rant. How does this compare to other ones? She's done it on a scale, which leads to other ones in the dust. I rest.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Falling dollar and falling oil price. The reason the falling dollar was a positive for Japanese stock markets because it kept capital flows in Japan. It didn't go out. Now we have the opposite. We have the triple demerit scenario. We have rising interest rates, rising oil prices, and a rising dollar. And that is kryptonite for financial markets. So I think we're in a really, really bad place. Don't want to yell fire in the theater Someone said to me if you're bearish and you're wrong, you're an idiot. You're bearish and you're right, they hate you About as negative as I've ever been in my career, it's muscle memory. I've seen this before. I'll plead guilty. I did not participate on the upside, you know, on the way up in some of this stuff. It's looney tunes. It's craziness.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the public knows that. The public feels that. And so the idea that people say, well, is it Peking now? It may peak. It may peak. That's not the point. What the point is, how quickly will it come down? And so I think inflation is here unless Jerome Powell discovers his Interpol Vokar. It's not going away. And when you start thinking about that, I mean, I've been taking the over the last few months on oil interest rates and the dollar. We have what's known as a triple demerit scenario right now. For those of you that weren't around in the 80s, the Japanese stock market was the bedrock, the driving force behind the Japanese stock market was a so-called triple merit scenario. You had falling interest rates.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Assuming a five that pretends an inflation house prices housing costs were up only 5% over the last year. We know that's patently not true. It's only 25%. So if you just say plugin 25 instead of 5, what would the CPI have looked like? It's a number more like 13%, not 8.5%. So the CPI that you're seeing right now is a lie.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Flounding around the other down from 130 where they were just for a nanosecond because of the Russian thing. Oil prices have gone up, it's got nothing to do with the Ukrainian situation. We can talk about that later. Very important. To oil prices, I think are going to be considerably higher before the end of the year. It all has to do with a lack of spare capacity in OPEC. The only way that won't happen is if we get a recession. So oil prices up, food prices up, going higher. The Fed cannot grow more wheat. The Fed cannot drill for more oil. This is not going to go away. You have inelastic supply. And then, when it comes to housing, keep in mind, I believe owner's equivalent rent is something on the order of 30% of the CPI. So that 8.5% inflation number that we just saw.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And they walk the walk. They push rates up enough to break the economy. Everyone says, well, they're going to raise rates until you break. It's exactly right. You're not going to get inflation down until the economy breaks. That's the point. On the one hand, you can have a recession, in which case take your earnings estimates and kiss them all goodbye, and then you tell me what the stock market does. On the other side, if they whiff, and people say, oh, they're not going to do it. The market's pricey and six rate increases, 80 increases. If they don't do it, this is, and people are going to jump on me, I'm going to deliberately use provocative words. Why should I stop now? This is on the road to Weimar, right? Inflation is 8.5%. The same people who are saying it's peaking right now, it's the same crowd who told you it was transitory last year. Why would you believe them? As a matter of fact, if you look at the data, there's good reason to think it's not peaking. Oil prices, $105.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“He's a octogenarian. He's a British economist investment strategist. He served for S.G. Warburg back in the day. And one of the most brilliant strategists I've ever met. He had this term called stockbroker economics. And basically it was referring to are these sort of pithy maxims, these things which sound appealing, but they're a mile wide and an inch deep. And so the idea that we're going to have a soft landing not going to happen. You have one of two choices. They either talk the talk like they are right now. They're talking tough like they're going to raise rates.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's why, as Jim points out, the Biden popularity rating in the polls has plummeted lockstep with the rising inflation rate. People say the economy is a problem, but it's not an inability to get jobs. Jobs are plentiful. We have a record number of unfilled jobs. I think it's something we're 11 million. So normally when people are upset with the economy, it's because people are out of work. This time it's not that at all. It's that inflation's killing them. The Fed wants to kill inflation. The only way to do that is to have a recession. This idea that somehow we're going to have a soft landing and, you know, it's going to be like a nice airplane coming in on a gauge path. Not going to happen. Look throughout history. It never works that way. That, by the way, excuse my rant is we filed out one away under the heading of stockbroker economics. Stockbroker economics was a title that was given that I first learned of from Andrew Smithers, who's still around.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A shocking number. He pointed out that the average homeowner of that, price the average home, the average homeowner enjoyed a $54,000 appreciation in the price of their home. Average per capita income was something like $52,000. So they've made more money in terms of their house price appreciation than they did from their paycheck. That's if you owned a home. So, yeah, inflation's up. No problem. I'm merchant, at least on paper for now. You didn't own a piece of real estate, you got a problem. You know, Excuse me, your standard of living is falling.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“History Ryan just doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. And the investor class would have you believe that once the market's down 20% As you say, the pal put they'll come to the rescue. No, not this time. As a matter of fact, I think there's a chance that this decline could shock people by just how far down it goes. Let me explain why The Fed, the White House, have identified inflation as enemy number one. And if you notice, it's become a real political problem because 40% of the population is really, bottom 40% of the socioeconomic strata is really hurting. They're getting killed by inflation. I heard Jim Bianco, who's brilliant, by the way. He's a must follow. Jim Bianco last week at the conference I attended.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the mainstream media, ignore the fast talking of S& bankers. And so, you know, how many times have we seen this for the last couple of years? And so to answer your question, no, Nasdaq 5000 in 2000 was never this bad. Yeah, Tokyo had some crazy stuff in 1989. But for my money, this is the biggest everything bubble I've ever seen in my career.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Liar's figure, but figures don't lie. You can't get from here to there. It doesn't work. There's a study, and I think I shared some of the materials with you, Jack, which shows, for instance, what happens to when you buy stocks on 20 times revenues in one of the slides I showed you. The data shows, and I have to credit my friends at Kalish Concepts, the average stock in history, if you paid 20 times revenues, forget about whether underperformed the market. That stock had a 55% probability of being delisted. Oh, but bro, the story is good. So ignore the charlatans and”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Famously said, he went on this rant about what does it mean to buy a stock on ten times sales and how crazy that is in explaining that if the company basically dividended you back every dollar revenue, forget about cost of goods sold and everything else, you'd only get the stock price back after ten years. Remember, stocks should represent a stream of cash flows in the future. That's 10 times sales. We're talking now about stocks. You mentioned Snowflake 100 times sales. I'll be honest with you, Jack. I don't even know what they do. All right. But last time I looked, it's still on 50 times sales. And just do the math.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Jack, that's a great question. You know, I've been through many booms and busts. I was there in 87. I left Fidelity to start a fund to short the Japanese market. So the Japanese market peaked at 39,000 at the last 1989. Ever seen that price since I was there in 200 Tech recent. I was there in 2008, and I will say what we've seen now eclipses every other bubble that I've lived through. But Scott McCaley, who is CEO of some microsystems. At the height of the dot com mania. Around 2000-2001.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Don't think that trade is over. So I would run not walk as fast as you can away from any liquidity driven asset, and that's going to tend to mean for the purposes of people watching this podcast for invested in the stock market, high PE stocks, growth stocks, Kathy Wood type stocks”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Shouldn't buy anything. What if the answer is you should be in cash? Or what I really believe, because look, no one knows where the market's going to go. It's just my opinion. You're seeing a huge rotation from long duration to short duration assets. From virtual to real, from Crappy growth to quality value. I want to be careful how I say this to commodities. So, what I really believe is that the lash shall be first and the first shall be last. So I've been, for instance, very bullish the last year, and you can go look at my Twitter feed. I suggested a year ago already, I'm on the record with this. It was last summer saying people should short Kathy Wood, short arc, and go long XOP as a proxy for energy. Not trying to be a jerk about it and take a victory lap. It's all there. It's up 300%.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Stocks on 20, 30 times revenues, loss making companies, crypto, SPACs, Meryl, all the speculative garbage, NFTs. Now they're doing mortgages in cryptoland. Like, really? I mean, all that stuff, not a, no Buenos, as they would say. So I think, and that's been getting killed. I suspect that's the stuff that will continue to get killed. But now they're starting to get to the real stuff. So you look in the stock market most recently, you've seen the general, so to speak, the Fang stocks, you know, be it Amazon, you know, Facebook, et cetera, et cetera. They're starting to get hit. So I think when the tide's going out, People say, What should I buy? What if the answer is?”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Prices peak everything. And so that caused the economy to accelerate. It caused companies to overearn, look at a historical chart of profit margins. And it caused valuations to surge to levels which are completely out of whack with history. Now it's all normalizing. And so you ask yourself to get hit hardest are the ones most sensitive to liquidity. So whether you're talking about, you know, the Kathy Wood archetype stocks.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now they realize that because inflation is a problem, they need to do something about it, and the way to do something about it is slow down the economy. The Feds told you they want to slow down the economy. They've told you they want to tighten financial conditions, translated, they want the stock market to go down. Everyone always says don't fight the Fed. At the bottom, when things look dire and the fundamentals look terrible, the Fed starts pumping money into the system, people say, don't fight the Fed. Okay, well, don't fight the Fed. They're telling you they want the stock market to go down. We've had, as I said, irresponsible, reckless monetary policy. They kitchen sinked everything. I understand why we had the pandemic. Excessive monetary policy, we had peak fiscal impulse, peak monetary impulse, peak valuations, peak bombs.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, Jack, you Brilliant Michael Howell on a couple weeks ago. I've known Michael for over 30 years. He's one of the best in the business. And as he explained in your podcast, it's all about liquidity. Central banks around the world are now in the process of withdrawing liquidity, and that's going to have a disparate impact on various asset prices. So, I think we've had the Everything bubble the last few years. Everything's been driven up. Stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, collectibles, baseball cards, see everything bubble.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the problem is for me anyway, and I'm talking too much, is that people are just caught up in what's been working the last few years, and they're now going to get an education. They can get an education one or two ways. They can read about it in a book my father said there's two ways of learning by precept, read about in a book, or by experience. And learning by precept is a far more economical way. But I'm telling you, too many investors out there right now, they're going to get an education. And I fear it's going to be a very expensive education.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And he points out he's written his book as well there's a stock behind every company. It's not a share is not a lottery ticket. You own a piece of a company. But that's such like a quaint, antiquated notion. It's been irrelevant the last few years, but I think part of what the market is going through right now is we're deflating this liquidity-driven edifice and value once again will matter.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know what you own stock market's not a game, not a momentum play, it's not a thematic thing, it's not, oh, I'm buying this because it's going up and Kathy Woods is a genius. Know what you own, and what I really observe, I observe many things, one of the things that troubles me is how much people don't know what they own. And it's not because they're stupid. It's because, yeah, they get caught up in the spirit of the moment, the momentum, or they're told they can't beat the market, so they just buy an index fund and these index funds mindlessly buy equities, pushing the prices up with no price discovery. But is Peter Lynch would say, and I urge everyone to go on YouTube, there's a great clipping of him recording from 1994 where he's giving a speech to the press club in Washington, D.C.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sometimes the market makes you look smarter than you really are. Sometimes they make a mark, it makes you look dumber than you really are. Trading God's giveth and trading God's taketh away. And this business is Not have seemed met with the last few years with central banks around the world pursuing the most reckless monetary policies ever, so everything's blowing from the lower left to the upper right. But this business is hard. And I'm going to go back to the most fundamental lesson I've learned from my mentor, Peter Lynch, Know What You Own.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I blew it in 2009. At a grade 07, grade 08, but 2009, I got too aggressive. I actually turned bullish in 2009, believe it or not, but I turned bullish too early, and the market didn't bottom until March. I turned bullish in January, and I got off to a really rough start and I was burned out, so I closed the fund. I tell you all that only because I really tire of people. It's really the Wall Street way. Everyone talks about their wins and they're invincible and everyone make mistakes. You know, I'm the guy who had the number one fun on the country, but I'm also the guy who had to hang his head down in shame and close his hedge fund in 2009. We're all human, we all make mistakes. And, you know, I guess you ask the question, what have I learned? I've learned so many lessons. I guess one that comes to mind in the way you ask the question.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Was if they were seen to be shorting stocks that would not sit well with their shareholders. And so I remember Christmas week of 1990 sitting in Ned Johnson's office, who, by the way, God rests all he just passed a few weeks ago, saying to me, George, this was a great idea. It's just only one problem. You can't do it here. And so I left, went on to start my first hedge fund, ultimately grew, I think we had $28 million of inception, grew to a billion four. The returns were highly satisfactory. I really can't talk about those returns. They were highly satisfactory due to a health issue in the family, that fund had to get closed in 96. I did a bunch of other things. In 2005, I came back. Again, started another fund, also got up to about a billion four when a billion for was a lot of money. And I met my Danube in 2009.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That experience. So I should just say at Fidelity when I became Peter's assistant, I then went on to become the foreign stock jock, the Fidelity Overseas Fund was started in the last day of 1984. I was the manager from inception. It was actually a blessing. It was a curse really more than a blessing. But I had the number one fund in the country in 1985. In the six years I managed the fund from December of 85 till January of 91. I got that right. The fund was the number two fund of all mutual funds in the country. I rode the Japanese market on the way up. It was a large part of the performance record of the Fidelity Overseas Fund in the late 80s. And then when it peaked out at the end of 89, I was like, hmm, maybe we can make some money shorting this sucker. And so I was willing to say infidelity, but unfortunately Fidelity could ill afford at that point to have hedge funds because the view”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Thanks for having me. So, I was very fortunate to have started my career in 1981. When I went to work for this little company in Boston called Fidelity Investments, which had $8 billion under management, only three billion of which was inequities. Hard to believe this is the company which today has almost $5 trillion under management. And so I started in 1981 as a retail analyst, covered a bunch of consumer industries, also including automobiles. I was fortunate enough to have Peter Lynch became his research assistant, his third research assistant a couple of years into my career at Fidelity. And I was very lucky. I was actually the auto analyst when Peter made his journey to Detroit and visited Chrysler and Ford and General Motors. I carried his bags back then. I knew enough to keep quiet and just listen. And I was in the room and we had all day with Lee I Coke and the Chrysler people. So I was incredibly fortunate to have.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Take your pick. You could either have the recession, and good luck with your stock market if that happens, or we don't get the recession, in which case inflation ain't coming down and there ain't nothing transitory about high interest rates and yields are going to go higher. Either way, Equities are toast. FOMO is dead Tina is dead. Goldilocks is dead. They're all dead.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT