YouSaid · the spoken record

James Lavish

lines on the record: 90
first: 2022-06-29
most recent: 2022-06-29
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“I hate the fact that my industry is so opaque. And I hate the fact that people are scared of it. They don't know what to do. They don't know how to, they hear all this jargon and they don't know what it means. And it just goes right past them and it shouldn't. So it's a great thing for people and it's free. I just really like doing it. It's like one page, boom, knockout, like what's a yield curve control. What's a Fed put? So I do that, and that's it. James Lavish on Twitter, you know where I am.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They're awesome. And so this is just a simple platform, educational platform for your listeners. If you want to know more about money, how money works, the system, and how it all kind of leads to Bitcoin. It's not Bitcoin heavy. It's really money heavy. And, you know, and the history and how, and it's super simple and it's in. Easy modules to go through just like a coursework online. I highly recommend it. That's the one thing. And then part of that is my informationist newsletter. So I write a newsletter every Sunday, comes out that I take one complicated financial topic and simplify it. Super, super simple for anybody to understand. And I love doing that.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah. Well, you just had us on with our looking glass education platform. You can find it on my Twitter profile in my bio. And that's the thing that Greg Foss kind of pulled me into Steph Bunny, Dasbia. You've got pleb music on there and Dalia Platt, Jason Sansoni's, a surgeon in Wisconsin. These guys are super smart guys and gals. They're so smart. I just, I basically, I'm the old, you know, the old guy with Greg. We just help with a little bit of advisory. But Greg's, he helped them really kickstart it. So he's been a very important part. I don't want to belittle that. But the guys that are running it.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, you know, I just look like just looking around for where I may see the risk. Where's the systematic risk? And you do the same thing. So I like talking to you too, man.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, in this particular I wouldn't agree with that. That's all. Yeah. I wouldn't agree with it. Yeah. Get your credit card debt off”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Why? He's like, I just feel like I should own it. I should have that debt. I was like, you understand as the dollar inflates that you're paying off Your house with cheaper dollars. Like, I never really thought about it. This is a banker, you know”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exactly. So I was, yeah, I mean, I was at the bank the other day because I had to send a wire. So I had to sit down with a banker and fill out like 17 pages of paperwork. I've literally sent 250 wires with this bank, but I didn't do it every time. I go and got all the paperwork. And this young banker, you know, he's just a kid, but he's like. What do you suggest I invest in? Because yes, what I do. And, you know, and I was talking to him about it. He's like, well, first I want to pay down my mortgage. I was like, I go, what?”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It does. It restricts movement. Yeah, it's interesting. It's something that hasn't been talked about much, but you're starting to hear people chirp about it. And I think you can sense it's just another thing. We need a few more data points there. I want to see a few more data points and see where this thing's going. And how it's really affecting people's bottom line. And where the consumer credit is going, how much it may be affecting that.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, so now you have, of course, you can get a whole lot more house in Austin than you can in San Francisco. On a house that is now going to be comparable to the one they're leaving. So, what's the point?”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So I think it's just a different structural problem, but it is a big enough problem that, again, it's going to cause more stagflation, where you've got inflation of goods that people need, but a deflation of their assets at a time when the Fed is raising rates. It's just, it's a recipe for more pain.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so here we are again. I don't think it's going to be as bad in the housing market as it was back then. Because, I mean, look who's buying up all these houses. BlackRock and Berkshire Hathaway. All they're going to do is rent them out, right? And they can sit on them forever.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That are now upside down. Because they took on an extra 100 grand at the wrong time or whatever it is. And so that's going to start squeezing people's credits. So now you're watching the credit that people's credit card debt tick up back up to the 2008 levels”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because, okay, housing prices have to fall 50%. I think we talked about this earlier on the show. They have to fall 50% to have the same mortgage payment as you did two years ago because house prices went up so much. And so did interest rates, right? Interest rates have doubled, and so housing prices. So they have to come down 50% just to have the same. But the problem is they're coming down. Demand's coming. Demand's coming off. It's just fallen out of bed, right? There's no demand right now in so many cities, right? So the problem is as those prices come down, people's equity, that they are expecting to be sitting on as part of their personal balance sheet is evaporating. They may have borrowed off of it because they've got lines of credit. You know, they've got home equity lines of credit that they're borrowing off of.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because I don't, because people aren't levered the way they were in 08. I mean, you remember you were back in 08, there wasn't Uber, but you were taking a cab in San Francisco. Somebody was the cab driver's like, oh yeah, I own six houses. Like, wow, and the values have appreciated”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Make people heads. So, and they're just, and that's just one company, one pension fund And when these guys come in, so I actually wrote this down somewhere here at Preston. There's five asset managers who control $30 trillion of assets. BlackRock, Vanguard, Fidelity, State Street, and Morgan Stanley, $30 trillion. When all those guys come in and they get 1 or 2%, they're not going to get 1% until the world. They're going to get 3%, 5% until the world. And then everybody's going to be going. I mean, that's just the way I see it happening.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And when they come in, when they do come in and they've got, you know. But because they're going to say, I need 1%. They're not going to say, well, it's trading at $47,000, wait until it comes back to $42. No, they're going to say, I need 1%. By 1% of my portfolio. Sorry, I need 1% of my portfolio. I'm managing $100 million. I need a million dollars or a billion dollars need $10 million worth.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You'd go in for 100,000 shares and you're this huge hedge fund and you'd get one, two, three, four, five thousand shares. That's it. So 1,000 shares of this IPO. But Preston, this thing will go up 100, 200, $300. You'd make a quarter million dollars without even blinking. And so there's a point to this. So for the first time, you're sitting in the same seat as those hedge funds. individual investor because you don't have to go through all the garbage that the institutions have to go through Buy Bitcoin. You can buy it right now. You don't have to go through all”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Hedge fund desk at the time. And you would go in, so what happens in IPO allocation, you know this, but for the benefit of your listeners, what happens in an IPO allocation as an investment bank or as a hedge fund or an investment firm, you ask to be allocated a certain amount of that IPO. You say, we want 100,000 shares. We love this Google thing. We want to own some of it, right? And so the investment bank works with their syndicate desk and they decide who gets what. And back then, it was like, well, who knew who? What kind of favors did you need? How much, how many commissions did they give us as an investment bank? Have they done a lot of business with it? It was ridiculous.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So you were around in high school. Maybe you were in an investment club and you played the dot-com bubble a little bit, right? And you saw how some of these prices, they got released, IPO'd, and just went. The first day.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Going to be the prime broker, like pension funds don't hold stock certificates in their back office. They have a broker who holds everything for them, custodian bank, holds everything for them. So who's going to custodia? And who's got the keys? Are they going to do multi-sig? Like who's going to be in control of those signing devices? How is that going to work? And then get all that done and you still got to figure out when you're going to market. Like, do you market at midnight London? Do you market at the closed in York Stock Exchange? Because it's open 24-7. There's just a litany of steps you have to go through. And so for the first time. This is the great thing, though, Preston. And it's unfortunate that the prices collapsed here, but I think it's given people a lot of opportunity here. Big opportunity.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, exactly. The math. The math is exactly. Then they get all those guys. So now we're talking about weeks or months of meetings just to get those people, the investment people, the risk takers On board. Now you've got to get the risk mitigators on board, who are the general counsel and the compliance officer, the chief compliance officer, and the compliance committee. So you get the general counsel, the chief compliance officer, you've got the compliance committee. Now you want to talk about meetings. Holy mother, like you cannot believe what this is like. Okay. So then they go through all those meetings. They finally get everybody understanding it on board. They're all gone home and done their homework and they're on board. They at least get to majority where they can start pushing this through. Well, then they've got to get everything in place. Like who's going to trade it? Is the exchange worthy enough to handle the capital of this pension fund? And is it going to breach any fiduciary duty of this pension fund by using them? That's number one. Then how are they going to settle it? Who's going to?”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“One percent of portfolio, okay? So let's say they get there, they get to the understanding. Well, the first thing they've got to do is get their chief investment officer to buy into it. So they've got an orange pill that guy. Okay. Then they've got to get they're successful there. Then they've got to get the investment committee. Agree to it in order to adjust their mandate. So they've got to say, you want to say something?”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Pension fund, and you're the portfolio manager of that portfolio, you've got a really tight, narrow, narrow mandate, right? But let's pretend that a portfolio manager digs in, reads a Bitcoin standard, reads the price of tomorrow. Jeff Booth's awesome book understands the deflationary versus inflationary pressures that are about to collide, that are actually colliding, right? They see it, they get it, they understand it, and they see it as a separate asset class and something that is insurance and is more like a bond than they've admitted that it should be something they own in their portfolio, even just 1%.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The institutions, the true institutions, the ones who control the massive amounts of capital, the ones who have that control the hundreds of trillions of dollars in investment assets. These guys are your pension funds, your endowments, your nonprofits. These are sovereigns. These are players that are so big that these are the ones who really move the market. Okay, but why have they not done it yet? Well, the problem is it's structurally very difficult to do. Number one, when you're at a pension fund or endowment or something, you've got mandates of what you can do. Let's talk about a pension fund. You've got a mandate of in your fund of what you can buy. And it's very, it's tight. You can't just buy, if you're in a growth stock fund, part of that.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, yeah. And then beyond. Yeah. So, but they don't, they don't need it. Okay. So that's number one. They just don't need it. And so their instinct is, hey, they know that it's disruptive. So when you hear of disruptive technology and you're in the technology that's going to be disrupted. Of course, you're going to battle against it. It's your first instinct. You're going to battle against it. Whether or not you know anything about it. But let's just pretend, okay? Because I do know that there are institutional investors, the ones who know it who are playing it right now, Preston are hedge fund guys.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And walked away. Okay. So you have some of that that's been going on all these years. Now it's front and center. Okay. It gets a lot of negative press. We see it all the time. You guys are out there trying to battle against it constantly. But the problem is institutional investors are super close-minded because number one, the system's worked for them perfectly. I mean, it's been fantastic for most of these guys. They've fastened.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's a scam or it's a Ponzi. There's no fundamental value to it. Don't just avoid it at all costs. And of course, may the worst trade of my career, which was avoiding it and not buying it.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Good question. I mean, I can tell you from my experience, Preston, back in 2018, I had some discretionary discretionary capital. I wanted to put to work in something a little bit further out in the risk curve, you know, something I hadn't really dug into yet because I had private equity, you know, obviously owned real estate house, public equity, you know, and venture capital. Like I want to go a little bit out on the risk curve and do something different. So I heard about this Bitcoin thing and run up to 20 something thousand, come all the way back down to four or five. And so I did what you do as an institutional investor. I went and asked my traditional technology analyst at the investment banks, hey, what about this Bitcoin thing? And I mean to the T every single one of them, they said it's super speculative. It's just or.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like the moment you need it, if you're Venezuelan, if you're in Lebanon, if you're in the Ukraine and you need it to get across the border with your net wealth, then you need it. And if you don't have it, your currency is deflating against Bitcoin. So rapidly that you won't get a chance to get it. So the point is that it saves you in spots, but we're seeing this. We've seen it play out in real time a number of times.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's almost maddening to sit here and watch the system just try as hard as it can to repel it. Maddening because you and I know how it can fix so many problems. Won't get into that. People have heard that ad nauseum, but it's almost unnerving to watch. And like you're seeing it act like this leading risk on asset for so long, it can be frustrating. I know it's frustrating for people who've been who are saying, well, that narrative's dead. There was a remark on one of my Twitter threads about, well, it's no longer, it can no longer, and this is by somebody who's very smart that I respect. You can no longer claim that it's CDS on sovereigns. Well, but the answer is it's not going to act like a CDS that trades in the open market. It's going to act like a CDS the moment you need it”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They're talking a big game as politicians. But But look at what's happening in Europe. I mean, they're allowing countries to buy energy from Russia and gas because they don't want a problem this coming fall and winter of citizens freezing to death because they don't have heat. Of course, they dug their own trench there by shutting down the nuclear plants. We've put ourselves in a spot where just like you said, we're so interconnected that. You're going to have to come to an agreement.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Energy energy work oil. Yeah, I mean, like that's those are so they could stand it up. They could. But just like to your point is that China needs the United States. I mean, they certainly don't want us to default. That would be terrible.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, the credit risk will make it hard for people to deal in that currency. So they will absolutely have to back it by hard currency. They'll have to back it by gold. And I think that they would back it by Bitcoin. Now, China's a funny one, right? Because they've banned Bitcoin mining. Of course, there's still mining going on there, which is odd, although maybe not surprising. I don't, and there's a question about how much Bitcoin the Chinese government may own. Wait, nobody knows. But if you had something that's backed by Gold and”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think they do have to. So honestly, if you look at the, and I was looking at this because I saw that somebody asked that question in that thread that you posted today. And if you look at the weighted average of the five-year sovereign CDSs, the credit default swaps. So for your listeners, Accredit default swap just is a insurance instrument that institutional traders use that when they own a bond, they can buy insurance against that bond failing, you know, defaulting. So credit default swap. But the five-year default swaps on the BRICS is at least 20 times wider than the CDS for the SDR currencies. Okay. I mean, Russia's rated at 100% to default. They're absolutely defaulting. It's just question one, right? Now, of course, we have a hand in that, but that's what's happening.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Do you want to be holding U.S. treasuries? Of course not. That's why they're all selling. That's why the Russia owns none. That's why China has been selling them with abandon. And they all own what we have suddenly realized is actually important, not just our good word that we're going to full faith back by the US government. Great, but having oil and gold and food and fertilizer and wheat actually matters. It's no surprise. They actually have something to stabilize the currency with”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We've seen, I mean, this is, it doesn't surprise me at all. Now, whether or not they're successful, I don't know. I mean, I would expect long term. I mean, I've said this before, I expect long term, not in the next two or three years, but long term, that you have a couple of currencies that are the base currencies in the world. Like US loses its sole status and you have the US euro kind of collapse into each other and some other the yen. And then you've got the, you know, you've got the Russian China. And this is it. This is the BRICS, you know, the BRICS currency. But why it shouldn't surprise us after what we saw with Russia sanctions and with the United States seizing U.S. treasury assets owned by foreigners? What? I mean, if you're one of these countries.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like, did something come out? Because that's the leading risk indicator right now. What happened last night, you know, so”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“First thing I do is I don't look at Bitcoin to see, oh, how's my portfolio doing? I look at to see if there was a systematic shock last night.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But look, when this all started happening back in the beginning of the pandemic, I have a lot of friends who were not in finance and who, when I started talking about how the money printing is really actually hurting the little guy, how it's not, you know, the cantion effect. And I try to explain that to him. They're like, they need that money they need that 1200 bucks yeah but it's gonna hurt on the back end like they're gonna they're gonna get hit with inflation it's gonna hurt and arguments about this now it's not that they're not smart they're smart people Not thinking about it the way we are. They're not looking at the way we're looking at this stuff every day. What do you do the first thing you wake up in the morning Besides, like, I absolutely”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So they admitted it. And I mean, they know that. So what do they do? What do they do? They do the best they can to throw up smoke and mirrors and to adjust that CPI in ways that kind of obfuscate the realities of the prices of the goods that people need. And they're hurting them the most.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Look at them. Yeah. Yeah, exactly not free cash flow positive. They've been shellacked. Exactly. So it's their time to actually Solidify their balance sheets and make sure that they're a whole going forward. Yet you've got people that are just career politicians that all they're doing is trying to have the next sound bite to get that margin of vote so they can stay in office so they don't have to go to work.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“would build into an environment that the politicians are saying, oh, we're going to have a windfall tax on you guys. We're going to make sure that your margins aren't too high. We're going to make sure that we regulate how much you're pumping and how much you're refining, when and where and how. Who in their right mind wants to go into that industry right now?”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But there's no solution there for a long time. The problem is we have suffocated. The growth of that industry for so long. With certain narratives and with big time, there's been no incentive to build there. So infrastructure is kind of a capacity.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Those are not food Not rent, it's not energy, you know, it's not your utilities. All those are going up. The rent might come down, but if you have a mortgage rate that's not fixed, it's variable, that's gone up. So you're getting hit there. You're getting hit on your gas costs. You're getting hit on your food costs. So you're definitely lowering your discretionary spending.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And you're worried that you can't get inventory heading into that. You know, period. So you front load it. So, I think we're going to see eventually we're going to see a collapse of prices in those places. But here's the problem. Those are goods that we don't necessarily need.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So they're front loading Q3, Q4, which is where they have all of their, like, Huge percentage of sales, over 50% of sales come in the last quarter. Some of these companies, it's 70, 80%, right? Christmas, Thanksgiving and Christmas. So the holidays are a massive, massive driver of retail sales. So they front-loaded it.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's everything. And so I do think the funny thing is I saw in the PMI, the manufacturers index and the purchasers index, right? In the PMI, it indicated that the purchasers were worried about supply chains, but their inventory levels went up.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So it's hard to tell where even if we're starting to see prices come down, you won't see it in the CPI because that's past data. So it's kind of garbage data. And the Fed has admitted numerous times, Powell stood up there and he said, where reactionary? We're going with what we've got. Now, you and I have heard Walmart has decreased their earnings estimate by massive amounts because of the price of Shipments, energy, it's impacting them in everything. This is not them shipping goods from the target store to the people's houses. This is them getting the goods from distribution facilities or overseas from China or from India or wherever it's coming from.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In all the things it affects, right? So energy oil prices go up, gas prices go up. I mean, every single delivery is more expensive. Every single item that gets moved from one place to another is more expensive. Every single piece of food that's created is more expensive that's created. You said this garbage food. But every single food piece of food that's processed, it's more expensive. I mean, again, you would think that we've reached this point that surely prices must come down. I mean, look, with where the rates are on the mortgage, the 30-year mortgage, and how much home prices have appreciated over the last two years, you need home prices to come down 50%, 50% to get the same monthly mortgage. You got on your house back then Just two years ago, 50%. So surely, now here's the problem. The CPI is a super lagging indicator, right?”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's not because they're admitting they were wrong. They're like, oh, dang, we've got to get these up fast because we need these rates to be at a level that we can then back off. Because what we don't want to do is go negative. And we saw what happened. And Jeremy ran negative rates for so long. Just this last fall, there was over $15 trillion. Of negative yielding. Negative yielding, not nominal, not real yield. Take out inflation. Real yield”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT