YouSaid · the spoken record

James Lavish

lines on the record: 90
first: 2022-06-29
most recent: 2022-06-29
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“So they need to get them up. And they've got to get him up to three and a half, 4% minimum. I mean, they've got to get them up there. And they'll do it fast. That's why we had a 75 basis point.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But I think that's what they're doing. And they're hoping that we'll have to reverse course by early next year, which. At the rate we're going.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think they're waiting. They're watching the U.S. economic numbers closely. We just had a negative GDP print, right? And then we get another one next week. If that comes in negative, it signals we are definitely in recession. We're heading down that road. Energy prices are up. Food prices are up. Stagflation, you're going to have the unemployment rate start ticking up and then the GDP turns negative. So they're playing chicken and one, they're trying to hold out. The point where the Fed posits. And when the Fed pauses, that takes so much pressure off them. Why? We'll go back to what we said at the beginning. The yen follows the spread between the 10 The 10 year JGB and the 10 year U.S. Treasury. So if that spread stops, then the pressure stops. It's like, okay”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And we'll buy yours. And it just, we just push the QE down the road on each other's balance sheets. So it's like in your monopoly game, you know, it's the central banker goes to the other central bank and says, you know, if.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Try to keep it super simple for people. So they could target a different point on that yield curve, a different bond to control. Or they could, another thing they could do is they could try to save themselves by selling U.S. treasuries, right? and showing it, which they've been doing. I don't know how much they've been actively selling versus how much they're just letting treasuries roll off their balance sheet. They're definitely allowing their US Treasury balances to decrease, which helps them. They get dollars by yen. It helps them support the yen, right? And then the other thing they can do is they could come to an agreement, which is kind of crazy. This would be like global QE, right? Where they come to the US or to another nation and they say, all right, you buy our bonds.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because it's hard sometimes because I know you understand it, but I know there's a lot of people who don't know these things that are Bitcoiners that listen to your show, that don't know some of these things. So I apologize if I'm doing that.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not sure, but let me walk through all of them. So then the other thing they could do is they could target a different maturity on the curve, right? They go to the”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, what No, I think it can go for a while. You know, I'm watching it, but I think it can go for a while. I mean, what's the Bank of Japan's choices, right? So as this pressure builds, they can either scrap, they yield curve control entirely, just walk away. They can move the peg from 25 basis points to maybe 50 basis points. Is that the next movie?”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It does make sense. It does make sense. At some point, though, it decouples, you know, it does decouple. It's got to get to a certain market cap. It's got to have enough liquidity that it's a separate asset class, right? And we're nowhere near that right now.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As risk comes back into the market, Bitcoin goes up first. So you lever it both ways, right? So they're leveraging themselves to a recovery as these things have gotten beat. down, knowing that, you know, if they don't die, which I don't think they'll die in the cycle, you know, I think they're just going to keep going and they can make some great money in that way.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Bitcoin. And so they know two things. Those coins have high beta to Bitcoin because that's the stable one. That's a stable asset of the whole group. Of course, it's different in every way that we can think and imaginable. But that's the first thing they know. The second thing they know is that Bitcoin typically leads risk assets now. It's been doing it for months and months and months, right? So as risk comes out of the market, Bitcoin goes down first.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think that this is going to swallow up whatever's left. Now, as these other so-called protocols, these securities, they collapse, well, there's obviously less market cap to go into Bitcoin. So even though Bitcoin's dominance, this dominance is going up, there's only so far it can go. And you still have a lot of people who have not been wiped out. who have some cash on the side who are buying some other some some cryptos you've got them buying ethereum or solana's been all over the place so they're they're buying those thinking that well especially hedge funds thinking that that has a high beta to”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. And so, you know, if you own Bitcoin and you're watching all this happen, I mean, my thing is I'm just holding it. I mean, I haven't sold anything. I mean, I'm just holding it. Why? Because.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Mike Alfred on the show. He knows all about it. So, just like the spread blew out here, and there were major investment banks that were prime brokers that were going to fail. So they go to the New York Fed and they said, look, this is so bad that we've got to shore up the markets. We've got to rescue. We've got to be rescued or else the financial markets are going to melt down. So that was the impetus for the real step in of the Fed put and I think I wrote about this, but the strange thing is though, and the scary thing is there's no Fed put here in Bitcoin and in crypto. There is only downside to the point where it gets washed out. Whoever is taking too much risk, sorry, you have the consequences.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, the longest of it is what's crazy about this is this reminds I was thinking about it all last week. I was like, this is exactly what happened. These guys took super crazy, stupid risk. Levered way up, you know, they've got this collateral that is highly volatile that they're levered against. Okay, we're not getting into the mechanics of what happened.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Anyways, these spreads blow out everywhere. I mean everywhere. And it happened like that because everybody got a sniff that these guys were going under. And so it wasn't that everybody was selling as much as everybody just backed away Said, we're not offering liquidity, and we're going to let there be price discovery. And it was madness. I don't know, do you remember this?”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But they weren't just getting at those deals, they were levering up their position. So they have a book of a billion dollars of merger deals, but they only have a billion dollars of, they only have like a hundred million dollars of cash in that book, right? So they're leveraged so far up. And they've done it with swaps and it's just crazy.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“For their own good. So, what they did is they took a billion dollars, they levered it up and borrowed doing swaps with every single prime broker and counterparty they could find. They levered this book up to over $100 billion. So they're like 100 to one lever. And what they're doing is they're basically short volatility because they're playing interest rate arbitrage. Which is one of the big things they were doing, and there's a lot of stuff they were doing. That was one of the biggest things they were doing, and a lot of merger arbitrage, a ton of merger arbitrage.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“He's like, you've heard what's going on with long term capital management. I said, yeah, of course. It would be while watching the spreads kind of creep out. Anyway. So, what had happened is long term capital management, this hedge fund that's run by Nobel Prize-winning mathematicians who have created the Black Schoals theory, the Black Schoals calculation for the risk of options trading, right? And so these guys are really smart. I mean, super smart, right?”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, you know, so I'm trading the merger arbitrage. And so you're studying the likelihood of the deal closing. It's all you care about. You don't care where the market goes. You usually avoid the deals that have financing risk because you don't want to have market risk, right? So anyway, so we have this book of deals. I mean, we're in 1998, I want to say Preston, we're probably have half a billion dollar book at that point Of merger deals in this hedge fund. Get this call. And it's a trader to another firm. And he asked, Hey, do you guys have any exposure to Goldman Sachs? I was like, Who's asking why?”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I've got to dig into it from the market's telling the market's telling you no, or that it's at least going to get repriced.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You don't care where the market goes, the market could go up or down. You're kind of hedged out of beta unless somehow the market movement impacts the likelihood of the deal closing, which is unlikely unless the deal is subject to financing. And if the deal is subject to financing and the market falls apart, then you could have issues.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Helping manage this book of tons of positions of merger arbitrage. And for your listeners, merger arbitrage is where you buy the stock of a company that's going to get bought out, whether it's for cash or stock or a combination of cash and stock. It can get super complicated, but you buy the stock that's of the company that's getting bought out and you short the stock of the company that's buying them in the right ratio and you annualize that return and you can capture the spread. The only risk is that the deal falls apart. That's the risk. The deal falls apart.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The common person, risk happens. Greg Foss' favorite quote. And, you know, and I was watching the Luna thing happen. And I thought at the time. Naively, I thought, well, it's kind of contained, you know And, you know, looking back on it, like you just said, everything happened so quickly. It's just like 1998 with long-term capital management. And I was sitting there on the desk and I get this call from another trader at a hedge fund. At the time, I was trading risk arbitrage, trading merger arbitrage.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And it can happen faster than you realize. And do I think it will? No, I don't think it will happen. Not anytime soon. I hope that we have an, I have this hope and this vision of an orderly operating system getting put in place and being used and working in coordination as a Bitcoin as a reserve asset and then for us to kind of switch over. If we have things like they're happening in Japan and in Europe and you get complete meltdowns. All bets are off the table. Every single bet is off the table”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We're ending up in it. So I wrote a thread a long time ago about why you should have Bitcoin as a write the Bitcoin, right? Why you should have a Bitcoin? Why you should have Bitcoin as a hedge? Against hyperinflation. People come on that thread, you know, and kind of laugh it off and say, never happen in the United States, in no way. And, well, I do believe that the United States would be the last for it to happen to. That's my belief. We're super fortunate that we're kind of in that position, I believe. I don't know, but I believe that. But if you think it can't happen here, you're kidding yourself. It can absolutely happen here.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“mutiny exactly which it will eventually be anyways right because of the separation of wealth I was in college, we studied this as like, and I couldn't relate to it. You know, this is, I mean, I'm going to date myself here, but back in 1990, 1993. And we were studying the separation of wealth in Latin American countries. And I couldn't really relate to it. I was like. But, you know, they made so many mistakes. They should have retained a middle class or built up a middle class. And literally at that time, we're destroying our middle class. And so from then to now, now that we have virtually no middle class, right, we're just gutting it, that we're ending up in the same position.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's the thing that they're all doing it together. you know and i loved your uh your your analogy with with um when you were on what bitcoin did with peter and your analogy with the monopoly boards in They're the central bankers from each board are like, all right, you gonna so are you, what are you doing? Okay, yeah.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Who are going to have to take care of them? That's a recipe again for disaster. So it's, uh, Yeah, it's going to be interesting to say the least, it's going to be interesting. And it's, you know, I'm sitting here laughing. It's kind of a nervous laugh. It's not, it's super serious. I've never seen anything like this. You know, people are asking, like, well, is this like 1970s? Is it like 1940? Is it like the great financial crisis? Like, nope. Nope. I don't think it's like any of them. I know that it's a little bit more like 1940 because of the, you know. The kind of lockdown from the World War and the supply chain issues and inflation. But this is something we've never seen. We never had.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Great way to put it. They're living in your basement You know, there are 38, 42 years old. They run up this massive debt.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Their Italian 10 years blow up over 4% yield. And so they have an emergency meeting. They're like, okay, well, so we'll only do QE in Italy. And then everybody else, you're on your own, but we're doing QE in Italy. Oh, and maybe Greece. And if Spain and Portugal pop up, maybe we'll have to do it there too.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“People lose confidence, sovereigns lose confidence, investors lose confidence. They stop buying the Japanese bonds. The bond market locks up. Japanese government has just continued buying them or back away, whatever happens. And the confidence in the yen just collapses. The yen hyperinflates, right? What does that do? It's what you just said. There's going to be contagion to other sovereigns and to major, major banks that have exposure to this. It's just, it just, it's the kind of thing that'll have ripples across the world. So one of the things that you and I have talked about, and we're watching pretty closely, I know you are watching too, is Europe. I mean, now we have this thing where Lagarde comes out and says that, well, we have this new tool, right? It's called the Anti-Fragmentation Tool, right? And so they're watching the Italian bonds.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I mean, there's absolutely going to be contagion. I think. I tried to burn through some of your questions that people posted underneath. Thank you for posting the questions today. And somebody said, well, what happens to the end? So you just ask, like, what's the resolution? Well, the resolution, as you know,”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“US dollars worth of Japanese government bonds this month in June. And there's a metric that nobody's, no sovereign has ever crossed, right? No central bank has ever crossed. And that's owning 50% of your own debt. They're already at over 228, 230% of debt to GDP I mean, mathematically, the answer is there's no solution. That has to blow up, right? It has to blow up”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It doesn't. And that's the crazy thing. So if you look at it now, okay, so for the people who are listening, the Japanese yen that spread between the US 10-year treasury and the Japanese 10-year treasury, has that widens, the yen follows that spread. So you can see, you can plot it against it and you could see how the yen just follows it. And so The problem is that we're not loosening anytime soon. We're tightening. We're tightening it. We're hell-bent on tightening into this recession, right? So that's where we're going and our rates are going higher. Japan has now taken in, what, 80 billion dollars worth of US dollars worth of yen last week. So they're on track to buy over 300 billion dollars.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They kind of look like maybe like the tremors before the tremors called before an earthquake. They're four shots, right? So kind of like the four shocks of this currency that's about to collapse. And it's not funny, actually. It's terrible. I'm actually a little bit worried. I like Japan. I've got Japanese friends. It's not a good thing.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like on the chart, yeah, yeah. So that's during our market hours, right? So that's when their window, their windows So, what you're seeing is that's the swap market. So that's the institutional traders, the hedge funds who are shorting the Japanese bonds because they're expecting that the Bank of Japan is going to have to back away. They can't just keep doing this forever. So they're shorting the bonds and buying the yen against them in that trade. So that's kind of where it gives you, it's a little bit scary. And that's why I'm watching this every single day and to see what happens outside the trading window, outside the Bank of Japan, their open market window. And so it gives you an idea how quickly this thing will move. And they just, if they stepped away and let them trade freely, this is going to half a percent without even blinking.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know is we've talked about before that puts a tremendous pressure, amount of pressure on their currency because if you have investors, other sovereigns who are selling the yen, selling these JGBs, and then they get yen for those, they're going to sell that yen out because they don't want to be holding yen. And of course the yen just it's skyrocketed against a dollar, meaning it's a reverse quote in the market. So when it goes from 120 to 130 to headed to 140, that's a major negative move in the yen. So this is just a release valve. You know, there's pressure building up and the currency is the release valve. And it's wild how they're disdaining there just swallowing all this debt.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And you know, it's not anything different than they've been doing all along. However, they've diverged from what the Fed is doing so severely now that it has just been like everybody, you're starting to hear people talk about a lot. You know, Luke has talked about, Lynn is talking about it. You're talking about it. Greg and I are talking about it. It's something that it's like you're watching the slow motion train wreck and there's nothing you can really do except just watch these guys continue this. For the benefit of your audience, what's going on is that the bank of Japan has instituted a policy that just like we've been doing all the way up until this point of quantitative easing, they have said that they're going to keep the 10 year JGBs 0.25% and they're going to buy every single bond that is offered to keep it at 0.25% and as you”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Kind of exploded onto my radar. And when you asked that question in the first interview or our first podcast, yeah. You said, what are you looking at? Like, what charts are you looking at? And I said, I'm really watching the yen because this is kind of wild what they're doing.”
2022-06-29 · We Study Billionaires · BTC084: Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT