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Jeremy Siegel

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180
first
2015-10-18
most recent
2015-10-18
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1
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  1. Get lost in the weeds. Right. And that's why I kind of say, Gee, Jeremy, you always get to the big picture looking down. And I said, yeah, because that's the way I was trained. As a macroeconomist. As a macroeconomist.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. It's kind of a macro look. And so many times I see people bottom up. They're specialized. And I think there were little bits of holes that I had to fill on my own, which was a struggle. But I'm very thankful that I approached it from an expertise level in macro.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. You know, and I remember Bob once saying, he said, Jeremy, you know, there's some stuff here. Let's talk about it. You know, Bill Sharp and the beta idea and all that. Let's talk about this. And it was happening right there. But my whole focus, and I was in the economics department, was I love monetary theory and the policy, the Fed, all that. And I stayed there, but I always had a love for markets. And it was a perfect meld of And then I remember once my publisher when I wrote Stocks of the Wrong, first edition, he said, you know what's interesting? You really have a top-down look.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. Robert Merton You know, of black shoals. I mean, I had. Incredible reservoir of brains and talent that I bounced ideas. I remember Bob Merton coming to me. You know, I was in graduate school in the 60s when the capital asset pricing money was being developed.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. No, I don't have an NBA, but I didn't. You've never taken any questions. That's unbelievable. So they said, where'd you learn? I said, well, first of all, let me say, who was in my class at MIT? I'd only a class of 30 people. Bob Schiller?

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. I've disclosed it little bits, but not very much. I wonder when my students will say, just a minute. You're one of the most famous professors of finance, you're the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance, at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. And you've never taken a finance course

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. Everything. Everything. So, I mean, you know, and Milton was not for all that. I mean, he was, of course, he wanted to reform the fad to make it operate right, but he did believe we can't go, he did not support going back onto the gold standard. And I read the monetary history of the United States when I was at MIT. That was my specialty was monetary theory and policy. My thesis was on monetary policy and inflation. I was actually trained as an economist, not in finance.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. Black and white. Well, that's what I think is the problem. I mean, you know, Milton Friedman used to call himself a libertarian, but he is not, I mean, you know, libertarians today like Rand Paul want to get rid of the Fed, go back to the gold standard. Get rid of the...

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. That is something. But I would say the person that influenced me the most was Milton Friedman. University of Chicago. University of Chicago, first of all, I read a lot about him from capitalism and freedom, which I read in college. And I was really kind of a libertarian. And I still consider myself sort of a moderate libertarian in many ways.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. Yeah, listen, I'm honored. You know all those three were my three thesis advisors what PhD? Right. It was before, well, Samuelson had won the Nobel Prize, the other two had not yet. They got up after I actually left.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. Well, I don't eat now. I was full time at Wharton. I just did one. I took a one semester sabbatical where I actually was at the Fed as a researcher. So it wasn't, you know, I wasn't really any sort of a permanent job at the.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. Reform that has to be, yeah. Well, a lot of things, you know, in the name of let's give everybody a college education, it's gonna, you know, it pays for itself.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. And you know, yeah, you can't just And the government does through the guarantees. Oh, they can't go back. We're going to get our money. In fact, someone told me that according to government accounting, they were actually counting a profit because. From it because they were actually getting more from the students than they had to pay on the government debt. So I'm floating, you know, Treasury bills at three basis points and I'm getting student loans at five percentage points. It shrinks the deficit.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. I know, but that was one reason why none of that trillion dollars is in the budget. It was so easy for them, oh, we just give a guarantee. It's not on the budget. So

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. Because the government had to see this is another thing. You know what? The loan problem wasn't on the government budget because they all was alone.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. You know, again, I would have to check that. It might be, I just know when there's been a huge increase in the past decade. There's been a huge increase in the last decade. Now, you know, and that I saw, I mean, that was what was shocking.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. Some of these online Well, and it's not only that. Actually, there were just lesser schools that had a hard time getting students, and all of a sudden I said, just like the government now is paying tuition. And I see some of these lesser known schools. I'm not going to say which ones they are. They're charging like Harvard prices. And they say, we fill them through the loan program.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. So therefore, everyone, let's make everyone a graduate student. Yeah, we can make everyone a graduate student. It's late.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. So I think that what I understand the motive was good and I'm in education, but I think, unfortunately, that's been a burden for a lot of students.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. So these were not, and I know not as good students. They didn't have it, but now they were given a ticket. You had these lesser schools that could never charge $50,000, but now because the government gave them a loan, they could, they overcharged for the type of education they were giving. They weren't giving them the skills that they needed. They weren't getting placed. And as a result, after they get out, they weren't getting the jobs that were paying that much more.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. You know what it was? What's happened is there was an idea of let's take a look at the earnings of graduates, college graduates versus non-college graduates. And oh it's this much. That means they can actually take on 60, 80, 90, $100,000 a debt because their earnings are going to be so much more than they're going to pay it back. There's a little problem is now getting a generation that before would go into the workplace, they wouldn't get scholarships because they weren't as good because don't forget if you're really good, you can go to Harvard and they'll pay everything for you. Right.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. Time. It's at record heights now I'm No, but really we've had student debt over the last 10 years go from maybe $300 billion to $1.2.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  23. Yeah, I know. I mean, it's a lot of, but first of all, there's a lot of people now under the burden of the student debt, which is, as you know, $1.2 trillion.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  24. Some people say it's the millennial's work habits. They're just not working hard. They're not working hard on their job. So that's one reason why.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  25. It's a GPS. It's right. It's everything. No one by standalone GPSs anymore and they're building the car or you don't buy them. Everyone uses their phone. I mean, all sorts of things now have become free. Now, I've talked to others and they say, Jeremy, there's something to that. We don't know. I mean, Fun stuff. Anna J. Dustins are very, very difficult to do, but the data is absolutely striking. The collapse of productivity from 2011 through today is of a magnitude we have not seen, especially in an economic expansion. And this is very important in lower energy prices. We've had a collapse before, but that was in the 70s when energy was going way up in prices. We understand why productivity collapsed at that particular charge.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  26. I've suggested actually, I wrote an article, as I mentioned. I must have been referring to you? It might have been. I actually write Kiplinger's every other month. I write, and I talked about the productivity collapse. And I said, you know, no one buys cameras anymore because it's all on their phone. The government doesn't count it anymore because something that goes to zero in price doesn't get in GDP.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  27. Yeah, it absolutely is. And one wonders, you know, we've had, I'm a macroeconomist, so I always look at the GDP and all that. We've had a productivity collapse of enormous proportions over the last four or five years. We don't, as economists know all the reasons why that, but we should have been increasing GDP 4 to 5% a year, not two to three, given what we've seen. And we don't understand what's going on, but is it regulation? Is it rules? Is it compliance? Is it administration goo-overs? I mean, I'm just saying we, you know, we've been having a productivity collapse. Let's talk about that because...

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  28. I think it's, and I think that's bad because it doesn't give us ordinary people an access to exciting capital developments.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  29. Yeah, so at some particular point. By the way, I do think there's been some studies on this. I do think Sarbanes-Oxley and the regulation afterwards, the burden after 2000.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  30. I mean, you know, it's really the anti-IPO that go in private. And I think that that is really deleterious to our whole capital markets. I love IPOs now in sense of you're willing to go public. And my firm was willing to go public. I mean, we're publicly traded.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  31. Unless you really prop. Like That don't have profits. And I think really, Barry, one of our biggest problems is we have firms disappearing from.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  32. And I wasn't excited about that. Now, I didn't have the resources to because it takes an awful lot of time to, in my fifth edition to update it. Some other people said, Jeremy, you know, in the last five, six, seven years, things have been better for the IPOs. Because it's been a hard.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  33. The hot, not cherry picking the high one. And I did this around 2005 and 2006. And when I looked all the way back, I compared it to a small stock index, not just the S&P. And my conclusion was if you bought the portfolios of that, there were a few of these huge winners, but there were so many losers that you really didn't beat a small stock index.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  34. Strong position to buy. To a certain extent, that's true, but we know there's a lot of times the market goes down, as I said, when we talked about earlier, it over predicts recessions. It reacts 20 and 30 percent, and earnings are not down.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  35. It's cheap. Yes, right. So, in a way, it's not, you know, obviously some of them, if they do it all on one date or they don't do it for a few years.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  36. They shouldn't be timers, though. I think you just buy it at the market price. Yes, sometimes you'll be overpaying. Sometimes you'll be underpaying. You shouldn't try to time it. Now, I know Baron Buffett always says, Yeah, if I think it's cheap, I'll start buying more. Well, he's on that and he encourages others. But my feeling is, all right, if you're not going to give it as dividends, let's suppose you buy 3% back a year. Just do it every month, you know, just as a stand, some years you'll be overpaying, some years you'll be underpaying, but on average you'll be paying the price and you'll be getting a fair market value. In fact, by the way, you will be buying more when the price is low because $1,000. You're doing a dollar cost average. Dollar cost average. It's actually a dollar cost averaging.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  37. Yeah, I mean, you're borrowing money or you're borrowing equity. If you want to prevent all the over leverage, which is, you know, one of the things that led to the financial crisis, you don't want to, it's encouraging debt.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  38. Well, you can, or is that slicing it too fine? Well, but that's honestly firms have a choice. Debt or equity or both or what, you know.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  39. Right. And it's a level. Again, one reason they exempted it is because I'm taxed on the interest so they don't do it on corporation. Why do they double tax the dividend? I'm taxed on dividends and they're not. Get the break on the cost side.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  40. Or by holders. So, right now, as you know, corporations can subtract all the interest on their debt before pay. I also wanted them to be able to subtract all the dividends on their stock. Why not?

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  41. And that was a huge set of tax cuts. A huge. Now, I was actually interesting. I actually advocated that they exempt dividends.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  42. Yeah, I mean, or I was actually advocating. Testimony when President Bush first developed that break for dividends. Which one?

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  43. I know 40% got $100 exemption and married couples $200 exemption way back when? In the 60s, you got your first two and then it was absolutely ordinary income. Right. Now

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  44. We've seen that over and over again. Crazy. So, you know, as I say, I mean, I prefer with you. I would love to see it in dividends, unfortunately, you know. We're now, you know, under Obama. We used to have 15% tax. Now it went to 20% and then the 3.6 on that. This has raised the tax on dividends, again, pushed it to reduce the reduced reduced.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  45. You know, I mean, you have these CEOs. I mean, many are good, but some of our empire builders got cash on hands. They're going to buy. Well, they spend...

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  46. Yeah. Yeah, believe it or not, or expanding planet equipment. Or do you know what firms do? They have all this money. Hey, I can buy this firm. I always like that firm. Let's pay 100% premium on crazy.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  47. Oh, I'm with you there. Okay. But everyone else says, oh, they should be investing it in this and this and this and this and buying this. And I said, hey, listen. I'm with you, Barry, 100%. I prefer the dividends, but if it's not going to be dividends, the buybacks are the second best thing.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  48. And plus, you got the buybacks. Which is now so what had happened, and this has to do with a number of factors we could talk about if people want to, but firms have substituted buybacks for dividends. Now

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  49. Yeah, even the first half of the twins started changing post war, began to accelerate around the late 70s and 80s. And right now it's one-third.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  50. Yeah. Well, and it's changed. Let me kind of present a big picture here. Up until around 1975 or 80, firms used to pay out two-thirds of their earnings as dividends.

    2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source