YouSaid · the spoken record

Jeremy Siegel

lines on the record: 180
first: 2015-10-18
most recent: 2015-10-18
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Revolution on Wall Street. Now, what's interesting is when Marshall Bloom, which just retired as a faculty member at Wharton, he knew everything about history and historical. I went up, he said, called me. He said, Jeremy, you're interested in the markets. You want to do this book? I said, yeah. So I said, I'll tell you what I want to do, Marshall. I want to look at the longest history of stocks in the U.S. as I can. And he said, go ahead and do that. I got it. I got this stuff together. We put it in the book. And New York Stock Exchange came back and said, Jeremy, your stuff is fascinating, but it makes it too long. And Marshall Bloom in one of the most, I think, generous gestures, he said to me, Jeremy, this stuff you can make your own book and just join me as a co-author on the institutional side of what happened since 1792, which is when the New York Stock Exchange was founded. I got stock market data from 1802.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Actually, it's just the Wharton school. It used to be the Wharton School finance, but now they've just shortened it. The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I know Something wrong. It is not working. And again, Bob is just using the received one. And Bob has seen, I've written a paper on this, actually. It's being considered one of the journals now, and I hope it'll be published soon. It's called The Cape Ratio, a new look. And I acknowledge what a great idea this is to average them, but then point out what the problem is. And what I do, Barry, is I use alternative definitions like operating earnings and national income account earnings. And I put those and develop a CAPE ratio for that, and that shows much less overvaluation in the market. So that basically is where I stand in terms of why has the cape ratio been not a good predictor over the last four or five years and it's been because of this change in accounting standards.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Very, much more extensive. In fact, so I follow month by month the Cape ratio very closely, Bob, it did at the bottom of the bear market go below the average. And then a few months later, by May, and the average's bottomed in March, by May, it already jumped above. And I said to myself, come on. I mean, we're not into overvalued position on that. And of course, it's been going up ever since, but this is really the first year we've had a correction of any magnitude that is affecting it. But he, in my opinion, until we get that zero out of that average, which I guess will be 2019. 2018, 19. Yeah, 2018-19, Bob is going to look and say, ooh, wow, the CAP ratio is very, very overextended.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's right. That's in the denominator. Don't forget, Bob takes the cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio, takes the simple average of the last 10 years. No waiting, no other adjustments are done. So for two years, we've got almost a zero. There are a very low number. And when that's in the denominator, that pushes up the cape ratio.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“2029 to 32, we had a 25% drop in GDP. We only had about a 6% drop in the last one, and yet the earnings, and then I discovered, yes, it's the mark-to-market. All these firms started writing down all their assets and taking it into earnings as they were mandated to do. Now, the effect of that very simply is that you have in 2008, 2009, almost zero earnings.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, what you got, and particularly that jumped out at me because actually the drop in earnings recorded in the 2009 recession was many times worse than in the 1930s. And again, we have 140 years of history. And I said, just a minute here. I mean, yeah, this was bad, but, you know, was 19.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not an economic drop. Not an operating drop, which is what they used to record previously. So in other words, the whole...”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Stop auctions, but particularly mark to market. That never used to be the case. You never used to write down until you sold. Then you would record either a gain or a loss. What they did said is you got to mark down whether you sell or not. Now, what has happened as a result is in the last two recessions, now the 2001-2 was a relatively mild recession, of course. The next one was the deep crisis recession. Produced a tremendous drop in earnings that way exceeded what we had seen in prior recessions.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Why is that? That is not Bob's fault that it's gone off the rails. What has happened? Remember, he goes all the way back to 1871 where we have earnings, and Bob, both Bob and I love to work with long-term series. He goes all the way back and looks at that. In the 1990s FASB, the financial conning standing board, started changing the way firms do their accounting.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Absolutely Well, it's very interesting because I've been looking and examining CAPE for a long time. And this is basically my conclusion. Cape has done a fantastic job at forecasting ten year returns until the last ten years when I think it has gone off the rails.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Your family vacation together with Napo knows at the Jersey Shore. We visit each other. We both have two boys as sons. We've had a wonderful relationship.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And as we've been very, very close friends, he was at Penn when I was there. He stayed another 10 years before going to Yale. And so now, of course, he's at Yale University.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That is the expected. So basically after inflation, I see around a 6% return on stocks going forward, a little less than the 6.7 the historical average. But what do you got on the tips? We're looking at real after inflation. You get 50 basis points on the 10-year, a little over one on the 30 years. So you're looking, that margin six to one is that 5%. And that is a greater margin in favor of stocks than the long-run historical average.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not to, in a low extraordinarily low interest rate world, that margin between what's called the valuation of stocks and bonds is still very much greater than the historical average. It's called the equity risk premium, and economists have written about that a long time. If you go through all of history, it's about 3% to 3.5% a year that stocks are over bonds. Now, when I look ahead, I'm looking at around 5%. And that's.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The energy sector and the dowing higher. I have people I talk to, they said that that could have clipped 13 bucks off of the S&P earnings. So that's a huge chunk. And a lot of people are saying, you know, if we don't get a repeat of that, and I don't mean it goes back, but just don't repeat it. People are talking about $120 to $125 next year. And by the way, that puts us at 16, 16 and a half times earnings.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, well, that's also very important. And that's one reason why, even though we're slightly elevated, I mean, if you take a look at what time is earnings you are, yeah, we're about 18 times earnings. This was a bad year. I mean, the oil collapse.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, they were all selling at 200, 300, 500, 6 hours. I said, this is absolutely crazy. I said, I mean, that was, I said, listen, you know, I'm a bull on the market, and I think the rest of the markets isn't really all that overveveled, but you got to get out of these.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Recall About Yes. Yeah, the March 10th, which was the high March 14th, I had a lead op-ed piece in Wall Street Journal, Big Cap tech stocks are a sucker's bet. And I looked at the biggest tech stocks Yahoo EMC AOL, you know, sun microwave oracle.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. I mean, a lot of people said, well, Jeremy, you know, you were not, well, what I said, it's very important what I said. I said tech stocks were crazy. I said the non-tech sector wasn't.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I was reflecting on what I said in the first section, oh, just buy and hold. I've gained a greater appreciation that it is important to look at valuation. We're going to talk about PE ratios, you know, the average around 15. But in March of 2000, when you were at the peak of that dot-com bubble and the Nasdaq was selling at 500,000, 600 times earnings, and it was crazy, that's a time to be lighter in stocks. Now, the interesting thing.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Economic contraction. So again, it's very hard to predict these contractions. We can see them after a fact, but there's no question. That the market's behavior is linked to those contractions.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, there's that famous Samuelson quote that the stock market has predicted like 11 out of the last five recessions. Yes. You know, one thing we know The market always goes down in a recession, but it often goes down when there isn't a recession. There's a lot of false alarms. With the market. But, you know, I think the accumulation of events, I mean, again, let's go back to the crisis. The Lehman Brothers collapse, the stresses in those markets. I mean, it just kept on moving into the market and everyone saw the economic fallout of that and you fell 65% from October of 2007 until March 2009 now in my lifetime. I'd never had seen that. My parents lived through 1929-32 where the decline was 85 to 90% the worst in world history. And that also was the worst.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, and so if you take a look at a graph, and by the way, you know, actually, I find that on Bloomberg, a graph of PE ratios on NASDAQ. And it just goes like this and then collapses like this. And I tell people now that's a”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, no, I'm going to tell you NASDAQ, and I'm going to tell you why I do NASDAQ at 30. Because in March of 2000, it was 600.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Don't look at it. That is true. If you can be patient and just put it in indexed fund and let it ride and don't panic when things go bad. You know, I think you will do very, very well.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, yeah. Well, very significant. I mean, I take a look at the financial crisis. You know, produced the worst decline in GDP since the Great Depression and not Coincidentally accidentally the worst bear market since the Great Depression. So, you know, business cycles, economic health, that's all inflation. Wow, that's really all about bonds and stocks and markets.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Over ten thousand soon. So I decided I'm going to take it a little easier. And I just have an honors undergraduate class, which I love. They're very unbelievably smart at Wharton. And so I'll be on reduced teaching for a few years, probably four or five years, and then, you know, settle back after that.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I don't know. Actually, they have a very good program if before 70 you can do a reduced load. I have one honors undergraduate class after teaching I've counted Barry. I've taught over 10,000 students in the 44 years I've been teaching.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was very interesting. So I was in my fourth year. I was assistant professor of business economics. And I got a call from a colleague, a person, Tony Sant'Amero, who, by the way, was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia after he left Wharton, but at that time he was in Wharton. He called me up and said, Jeremy, I need another macro person here. Would you consider coming to Wharton? I went to Wharton and they offered me a very, very attractive job, even though I like Chicago a lot. I decided to settle there at the Wharton School.”
2015-10-18 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jeremy Siegel: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source