YouSaid · the spoken record

Jonah van Bourg

lines on the record: 109
first: 2024-06-25
most recent: 2024-06-25
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“There to be like a hope that the tide is going to rise and lift your ship. Right now, if you buy AO, which is the AI sort of like let's call it the computational engine of our weave, which is very capable of processing AI applications like Llama, or even if you buy RWEV, AR, the token, which is already basically the most important consumer product in crypto. It's like the AWS, the Amazon Web Services of Crypto, like any revenue that people are”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, some of them actually work, like live peer. I had a chat with the RW guys and, oh my God, like AO is just so interesting. A stateless computer that can process like llama three on chain. I love these ideas. I think they're so interesting. I think, again, the blockchain product is early stage. And even if the blockchain product achieves mass adoption, we're past the point where in terms of like just markets, markets and market psychology, where like people are going to feel comfortable buying a token because in name only, it's associated with something that's kind of cool, right? Or that works or that people are using. Like, again, you need a pass-through of genuine economic activity to the token holders in order for people to, in order for.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of hydrocarbons. And I think that if you're going to take a bet on pre-regulatory clarity, if you're going to take a bet on an altcoin, you should be sitting around waiting to dip by the things that will benefit the most from revenue, like genuine business activity revenue pass through. I know it's a complicated thesis, but to me, like, I just, I'm seeing that ball very clearly personally. And so those are the altcoins I like. Now, do I want to buy them here? Watch them sell off 90% and then have the regulatory clarity emerge? Like, no, I'm kind of waiting in the wings, right? So those are the ones that I think you'll ultimately want to buy on a proper jackknife.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Ondo on chain. Like to me, that's just pure magic, right? And so I think that to the extent that I do believe the dollar will remain the world's leading global reserve currency, not the only one, I think that on-chain projects that collect a sliver of the difference between the yield they deliver to their end user and the yield that they collect from lending to Uncle Sam. I think that those types of projects represent like an absolutely critical use case in the global banking ecosystem. And as soon as regulatory clarity starts to emerge, I think you're going to end up with a system where those revenues get passed through to token holders and you're not just holding some worthless governance token. You're getting actual dividends from that business. And then soon you'll end up with tokenized stocks on these platforms, tokenized corporate bonds. Hell, maybe even tokenized cargoes.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, okay, so just a little bit of like inside baseball for you. We wanted to call the show 100X, but Arthur Hayes, the founder of Bitcoin, a Bitmax, sorry, He had that like he already had a company called 100X. This is an investment company. So out of respect to Arthur, we're like, we're going to call it 10x? No one's going to listen to this shit. So call it a thousand X. It's a little bit aspirational. So I'm not sure. I know what's going to thousand X. But in terms of what I think is going to 100x, I am extremely bullish on what's called like things like Ondo, like things like let's call it the RWA space, even though a treasury bond is not a real world asset. I think that use cases like stablecoins, like, did you know that stablecoins are the 18th biggest lender to the United States of America right now? Like, to me, the idea that JP Morgan won't bank you if you live in Argentina or you're an itinerant farmer in Bolivia, but you can get dollarized checking account with Tether or a dollarized high yield savings account with.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Zombie tokens out there floating around. But I don't think That's what people are looking for if they're going and buying altcoins. So I would be touch the altcoin space with a 10 foot pole. Now, to your point about Eth and Solana, yes, they were all coins at some point. So if you're that good at picking winners and we can talk about ways to do so, like I think there are tokens here and there that are going to thousand X. I'm just saying the space as a whole is kind of cursed.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You need another source of capital other than like random guys on the street, dentists and mom and pop people to come and buy altcoins. You need inflows from genuine business activity. You need this to start disrupting TradFi economics in order to bring in the amounts of capital necessary to sustain these multi-billion dollar valuations. And we're not going to get it in the next year or two. So I think we're due for proper altcoin underperformance. Now, on the other side of that, just very quickly, my former boss at DRW, Don Wilson, has this amazing saying, which is, you know, I was complaining one time about Cardano or Polkadot. I don't remember which. Like something that shouldn't exist. And he's like, Jonah, tokens don't file for bankruptcy, which is true. They don't go to zero. You can't short them, right? So it's unlike stocks. You're not just like, these things aren't going to go to zero. So you'll have a lot of like.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's no supply. The marginal buyer for what little liquidity is out there, their algo sloshing things around. There are market makers like GSR and Winter Mute providing two ways on these tokens because they're contractually required to do so so that they look liquid and stable. And the marginal buyer is somebody who just like listens to a podcast about SUI or say and gets excited and pushes the price up. But like when the venture capitalists who have in these in their like investment vehicles like hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars worth of this funny money to unlock, there's not enough retail to buy it anymore because retail's gone and bought the last two VC bull markets. And there's just not like you need a new infusion of capital. And so my whole thesis around crypto, like around altcoins in particular and tokenomics in general is what I was saying earlier, which is that”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not in the parlance of systematic trading statistically significant. It's entirely possible that something that worked twice could fail on the third time. And I firmly believe that it will. Why? Well, retail has had their hands burned twice by this. Retail was not deploying the systematic strategy at an optimal time and exiting at the highs. Retail was holding the bag in the last two altcoin bull markets. And I do not think that retail is there this time to buy sui and aptos and Great question, but it's an L1, it does something that no one cares about, right? Like there are people, like when there are no venture capitalists unlocks,”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, okay. So, first of all, yes, you're absolutely right. This is a controversial take. It's a spicy take. I've taken a lot of heat for it on Twitter. Here's why I'm confident that my contrarian view on altcoins is correct. Let's say that you were to create a systematic strategy. The systematic strategy is buy an index of the top thousand altcoins market cap weighted index of the top thousand altcoins when the market when Bitcoin has been in a bull market by some definition, let's say pick your definition. It doesn't matter. Has been in a bull market for longer than six months, right? You would have had an awesome time in 2017 and again in 2021. So your systematic strategy has two data points to sort of like validate your thesis, right?”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Response about, oh, the fundamental tech isn't there, but I would have said that that was true in 2020 and 2021. The promising has been very, very big and the delivery has been a little short, to say the least. But that's not new to me. So what's different?”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's going down Final thing on altcoins yesterday you posted that altcoins are not done nuking this is not an opportunity to buy and you said your signal was to get out of alts was that the bitcoin to ETH to sole ratio and you talked about that earlier on the thousand expodge shout out to that but just when you say about why do you think this is the moment for altcoins to do poorly typically i think it is fair to say you know i got we don't have huge amounts of sample size but when bitcoin and goes up eth also goes up and other altcoins goes up i mean there's a go up there was a time when solana and eth were considered altcoins in the same way that if the s p goes up the high beta stocks tesla and the video will go up as well and you know the crap you know huge frenetic bull market like 2021 or late 2020 the crappier the company the higher rate of the company the more it will go up and certainly that can be you know characterized of crypto during the same period of 2020 and 2021 why is this time different and just to sort of preempt your”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't really see who's going to be willing to pay up for it. So maybe zero is probably an exaggeration that I posted to get some engagement, but I think it's going down a lot. It already has. It nuked like 20% in a couple of minutes on the headline.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, if you held Bitcoin on Mt. Gox way back when the exchange got hacked, like the fork happened after the exchange went down. So now all of those exchange accounts are holding both current, like what is today Bitcoin and the fork, which is Bitcoin Cash. And so like theoretically most of these people don't want Bitcoin Cash. It's just a shitcoin that they don't want. So they're probably going to sell it. And unless all of the Bitcoin cash true believers slash whales go and absorb that extra 100 million, which they very well may, but I doubt they will. The marginal buyer of that, which is where the price gets set, right? For anything, whether it's oil or Bitcoin or some random token you've never heard of, it's always the price the marginal buyer is willing to pay for additional supply. All the supply is coming to market.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The great thing about crypto is that the code is open source. So if some people don't like the roadmap for a given project, they can just do what's called forking it, which is copy all the code, paste it into some new repository and get going with like the exact same thing with a few small modifications. And honestly, I think Bitcoin, I can't remember whether the current Bitcoin is the original STEM or whether Bitcoin cash is. I think Bitcoin Cash is an original STEM of like Bitcoin looked more like Bitcoin Cash in the beginning than it does today. And so our current Bitcoin is a fork of Bitcoin Cash or something, I don't remember exactly. I'm not a dev. I haven't been in this since 2011. But anyway, Bitcoin Cash is this like legacy almost Bitcoin Bitcoin thing that is held by a few whale accounts.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That by itself is irrelevant. I think the selling flow on BCH, which is, I think it's like almost nine figures or maybe slightly over. That could send BCH down a lot. So that selling will matter for Bitcoin Cash. But no, the actual flows of Mt. Gox Bitcoin unlocks don't matter. It just, the news is hitting the market at a fragile time when there's already, like I said, altcoin carnage going on and a lot of value being lost and people panicking and getting upset. So, yeah, like you said, sentiment is the exact word I would use to describe what's causing the sell-off right now. Not actual like technicals.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Pass through the revenues of a real business to token holders, which is not currently legal. When that happens, then you'll have new sources of inflows into crypto other than just like the greater fool buying your shitcoin. But until then, I think we've run out of greater fools to buy your shitcoin. And I think that whole altcoin space is going to go from hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap to a lot lower, unfortunately.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, my sound bite on that. Like, I think the meme coin casino is a fun way to play around and make money. I think that the majors like BTC, ETH, and Solana are an awesome long-term hold. Anything in the middle of that risk curve, the altcoin space with air quotes, I think it will ultimately have value when there's regulatory clarity and when crypto can fulfill Chris Dixon's sort of prediction. He's a venture capitalist at A16Z. He basically predicted that crypto would disrupt the LLC. It would disrupt corporate structure. It's better than a safe agreement or startup private equity. Like I totally agree with that. It's a better way to organize value sharing amongst like disparate participants in some sort of software project. I totally agree with that. But you need regulatory approval first. And then once a crypto economic system can pass through the benefits of genuine economic activity.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like your participation rate is going to be well below 10. I mean, tens of billions of dollars worth of this stuff trades every day. So I think Mt. Gox is a negligible price impact. I think the reason why it nuked on the Mt. Gox headlines was because people just sort of like forgetting this cardinal rule, which is that you can't front-run flow, the timing of which you aren't completely fully aware of. You can only front run flow when you know exactly when it's going to hit the market. And I think it's amateur out there where people are like, oh, it's going to be selling. Let me sell. So, you know, I think there's been some panic around that. Ultimately, though, Jack, I think what's really causing the sell-off is a broader light bulb going off, which is that most altcoins are completely worthless. And like billions of dollars worth of VC unlocks are happening. So I think a lot of retail is finally waking up to the fact that they're...”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And if the one shot worst case scenario bid for the full size is like down five or six percent, then the like feed it to the market over six months for like a third of that size or a half of that size price is probably like almost negligible. So a good heuristic if you're a trader is you want to, it's called the participation rate. It's the amount of the daily volume that is like generated by you. If you're less than 10% participation, meaning like your volume accounts for less than 10% of the market's volume, that's usually like a sort of like a rule of thumb maximum for what it takes to like get your volume off without moving the price too much or barely in barely noticeable amounts. And like what I just described where there's like a six month ratable unlock of eight and a half billion dollars worth of Bitcoin of which maybe half at most gets sold.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like a few minutes, right? The bid for that would be like down five or six percent or seven percent, but like nothing crazy. Like, okay, five thousand dollars a token worst case scenario for that. Instead, what's going to happen is it's going to get slowly unlocked over the course of six months if this is real, unlike the last five times the market thought Mt. Gox was unlocking. But like, let's assume this is actually for real this time. Basically, what's going to happen is you're going to have like some of the people want to keep their tokens because they still are bullish Bitcoin. You're going to have some of the people wanting to sell some or all of their tokens. And they're going to go and do that piecemeal on a variety of exchanges. I think this is getting delivered on Kraken and a couple of others. It's very different. Like one thing you learn as a trader, which I've been doing for 20 years, if you feed risk to the market, it digests it very quickly.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, if you were bidding a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin on a day where it was down percent, yeah, it'd be hard. But like I'm talking about just in a like the liquidity picture in a sideways day, like you wouldn't bid down more than one or two percent for that much volume. So, okay, so eight and a half billion dollars. Realistically, like the Mt. Gox community is not asking one or two liquidity providers for a bid on 8.5 billion over the course of”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like an enormous amount of Bitcoin. You can get out of it really easily. Binance was this phenomenal liquidity engine with so much going through it and that liquidity filtered through the whole crypto market.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, so what's interesting about this is that when I was at Cumberland, we actually priced a few big liquidations because a lot of bankrupt crypto companies like the estate of the bankrupt crypto companies would come to us and they'd say, you know, we have this many tokens for sale, we have a yard of ETH, a yard of staked ETH, a yard of Bitcoin, like a yard is a billion dollars, you know, like what's your bid? You know, if you're bidding in one shot, if you're bidding a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin in the middle of nuclear bear market, you're not going to get away with, and you're in competition, meaning you can't just show some price that you can't show an uncompetitive price, basically. You're not going to show more than one or two percent off of mids for.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As a Bitcoin hyperbol over the long run over my lifetime, like I do think it will be a major reserve currency, if not the major reserve currency. I know that I've got a fringe opinion there. I think a more acceptable base case would be that it becomes a relevant global reserve currency in which Saudi Arabia perhaps denominates some of its hydrocarbon trade, but not most. I think the dollar is going to be around for a while unless we Americans do something really stupid, like you said, something really drastic. But yeah, I think to your point about Saudi Arabia, just to close the thought, not renewing, like not renewing a contract that you don't have to renew. Why would they give up the optionality?”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think 50 years ago, they signed some 50 year agreement to use the dollar and they haven't raised their hands saying, Joe Biden, we'd like to renew this and sign up for another 50 years. But I mean, let's face it, right? Billions of dollars of Saudi oil every month are getting sold to mostly Europe and Asia, not so much North America anymore, denominated in dollars still. So symbolically, it matters because they're not like gosh, we're so in bed with America that like we're committing publicly to another half century of this, but functionally nothing's changed.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Commodities in Bitcoin anytime soon. But Nigeria and China just might, right? Or the US and Iran inadvertently might or Venezuela. You know, that's how these networks work. So I think it will become a minority player in the global reserve currency market.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Leave this podcast right here, like exit or like hit, you know, like turn off Spotify and get upset. Like basically what I'm what I was trying to say was, okay, so I'm not saying that Bitcoin needs to displace the dollar as the number one global reserve currency in the imminent future. What I'm saying is when you look at this pie chart, and we will get it up there, like you can see just how many reserve currencies there are on there. And I think if Bitcoin eats even a like if it eats a plurality of market share, like even if it's a few basis points or 10%, like you're looking at millions of dollars per token in terms of the price of Bitcoin. And it doesn't need to go any further than that. Like the dollar will always dominate in the, let's call it NATO hemisphere, right for global trade, like the UK and the US will not be swapping energy.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. Yeah, that's right. And there's this awesome movie that I posted on Twitter. It's a pie chart representing market share of every global reserve currency and every frame is a different year. So it starts in like 1890 or something and goes until the present day. What you can see is just how dynamic it was. Like the Dutch Gilder, the French Frank, the British pound. The global reserve currency picture is extremely fluid. It wasn't always the dollar and it won't always be the dollar. And it's really hard to see. Sovereign currency being the next global reserve currency for major international hydrocarbon trade transactions, as well as others, other types of transactions.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“East and West, emerging economies and developed economies. And to me, Bitcoin seems like an obvious one. I think at this point it checks all the boxes for kind of an independent monetary system in a box that, again, like with time and battle testing, there's not a debate that it's better than most of the world's currencies.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I read that news a couple months ago. You know, I think it's going to happen gradually then all at once. And the gradually part has already, you know, people think I'm crazy, right? You know, I come from an industry that's very well established. Oil is a hydrocarbon market like with use cases. It started in the late 1800s. So it's very mature. And if you leave a stable oil job to go into crypto, people say you're nuts. But I really believe this is going to happen. I don't think I'm crazy and I think it's already started. I think that the Bretton Woods sort of like dollar world is gradually deteriorating. America's pulling back, right? America is not going to be the global guarantor of safety and dollarized diplomacy forever, probably. And so you need some sort of common denominator, some sort of financial common denominator that can perforate these Orwellian hemispheres of interest.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“El Salvador and Bitcoin is a local currency, you won't even have to do any conversion at the end of the funnel, it'll just go straight into the local economy and its local currency, which is Bitcoin.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The Nigerian producer's problem and converting Bitcoin to Nigeria would be a Nigerian producer's problem, but my hypothesis is that as the dollar becomes a bigger and bigger weapon and as dollar banking becomes less and less available and as populations across the world, you know, like in emerging markets demographically, these populations are quite young and quite crypto savvy, like these economies will get redenominated into Bitcoin, much like El Salvador has. I don't understand why if you're Nigerian, you would ever want to hold Nigera, whether you're young or old, it just inflates your wealth into oblivion, right? And so I understand why if you're an American, you want dollars, that's a no-brainer. But if you're live in Chad, why wouldn't you want to have your wealth in Bitcoin instead of their local currency? And Chad has quite a lot of oil too, interestingly enough, Exxon explored it. You know, eventually you'll remove that last hop when Chad becomes like.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So the oil traders would be sending into Nigeria dollars, but would the oil be bought in dollars or in Naira? In other words, is the conversion from dollars to Naira, is that the oil traders problem or the Nigerian producers problem?”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Elegant in that it settles at block time and it can be transferred and stored in a minuscule sort of like thing in the physical world. It's very interesting stuff”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Send Bitcoin to a local gateway, and then as soon as it arrives in China, just receive Bitcoin for the cargo, right? Like there's no correspondent banking system. There's no SWIFT. There's no currency conversion. All of the pricing can be converted based on some index, like their fixings for Bitcoin to dollar. Like none of this correspondent banking and the holdup, the tie up in time space, which now has translated in a high interest rate environment into dollar space is necessary, or like you could literally just hand a thumb, this is this wouldn't happen, but you could literally just like hand a thumb drive over to somebody at the port in Nigeria and pick one up in China. And it's otherwise you don't offload the oil, you know. Bitcoin is.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In arrears and nonsense before those dollars end up in a Chinese bank account that hopefully isn't sanctioned for Iran oil trade and can then get converted into wand somehow with their complicated system of onshore and offshore currency management. It's not simple, right? Like all of that's a big shit show. It would be so much easier if the trading company could just lift the oil in Nigeria.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In these emerging economies that need the money to grow. Then the boat will go over to China. It'll go around the Horn of Africa, basically. This is like in the case of a direct voyage. Sometimes the trading companies back to back tit, they just have a buyer at the same time as they bought the oil other times. They're like floating it out there speculatively, hoping that someone in Shandong, or not hoping, algorithmically or discretionarily determining that someone in Shandong will want to buy that oil. By the time the next bill of lading gets issued in China to like offload that oil into some refining pipeline system, it can turn it into useful things like jet fuel and gasoline for the Chinese people to put into their cars and airplanes to get around and uses a mobility catalyst. Then there's going to be another few weeks worth of price.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As you'd imagine, Bank of America isn't like handing out business bank accounts in the creeks, right? It'll eventually get there, but between the time when the oil is, it's called lifted, meaning taken from the port into the boat and a bill of lading is issued, which is shipping speak for like a receipt for the oil. Like you're looking at like possibly weeks before dollars hit the local Nigerian banks or Naira hit the local Nigerian banks. And in the zero interest rate area, it didn't, who cares? Money now equals money later. But in the current era, like if your money is tied up in transit, you could be earning interest on it. And these are not like microtransactions. You know, like a couple weeks worth of interest on $180 million or $160 million or whatever is not trivial, especially.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, except the Nigerians won't pay for the freight to China. They'll just sell it. It's called FOB, Free On Board, which is like, this is the price at our port in Nigeria or next to Nigeria. And then do you pay for that? Like, how do you determine the right price? Well, it's not just like going to the store and buying ice cream cone. And the ice cream cone guy picks the ice cream seller picks the price of the ice cream cone. It's linked to the price of global crude with a formula. Anyway, so that transaction will happen. The trading company will buy the oil from Nigeria. The price will be determined at some later date in arrears and then money will get wired somehow to some bank in Nigeria in dollars. And then obviously that'll go through correspondent banks and it's a big mess to get it back like into the Nigerian economy because”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you can't say, but I'll make it up of, oh, this oil is similar to the sweet sour crude, and we're going to have a certain margin of safety. And then there's the cost for us to transport to China, all of the costs. And, you know, we're targeting a certain return, something like that, right?”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Beneficial to do so and happen to, you know, part of her family office portfolio is this stream of oil called forcados in what's the place called the creeks. It's like a warlord-run ecological disaster where Shell found a lot of oil and pipes it to an offshore platform. Anyway, like there are all these little independent and national non-independent producers of oil in Nigeria. They've got oil. have a like they don't have Place called Banana Island in the middle of Lagos, like a place where you can live there without feeling insecure. Anyway, there are lots of oil companies that do stuff like this. Anyway, so there'll be relationships, and Vital will buy the oil. They'll buy it with a pricing mechanism that I'm not at liberty to get into, but there's a mechanism there that like you don't pay for the oil with a certain set of rules.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So let me caveat this by saying that I was never in the finance department managing the minutia of this transaction, but I was adjacent to it. I understood it. Now, I was at VTOL during the zero interest rate era. So a lot of what I just said is far more relevant now than it was then. But let me talk you through it as you request it. Nigeria is a place where there's too much oil and China is a place where there's not enough, right? The job of trading companies like Vital is to reallocate commodities across the world from places where there's a surplus to places where there's a deficit. And Vital's not the only company that does this. There are hundreds of them, big and small. A VTOL will have relationships with the NNPC, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. They'll have relationships with like the grandma seamstress who had a relationship with a general at a time where it was economic.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sanctions and the U.S. banking system, but also because it's just, it settles at the speed of a block, which is T plus 15 minutes instead of T plus whenever. And so as the US starts to weaponize the dollar more and more throughout time, I don't even think Bitcoin's a dark horse for the next candidate to become like an alternative reserve currency. It's certainly not going to be the wand or the euro or the yen. What else is there really?”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“United States and Nigeria, like they're happy to take dollars, but how does that filter through to the local economy? It settles T plus 17 days, 17 business days or whatever. And then in order to convert those dollars into Naira and have that wealth trickle down to local economies, like God knows how much grift occurs in the middle of that, it's a disaster when you watch emerging economy to emerging economy, commodities trade. To me, it would be much simpler for Bitcoin to be the denominator of this rather than a currency like the dollar that's one counterpart is quite hostile to. And the other counterpart just can't get banked in. It makes no sense. So already you're seeing at the very extremes of this debate, countries like Venezuela offer discounts to buyers of their refined products if they're willing to transact in Bitcoin because it allows them, you know, frankly to serve.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You are a person attempting to store value in one of these places, like, would you rather, if you lived in Libya, would you rather hold the Libyan local currency or would you rather hold Bitcoin? Like, I don't even think there's a debate about the right answer to that question at this point. And let's say that having worked at VTOL and seen what it's like to lift a cargo of crude oil from Nigeria and ship it off to China, the crazy thing about that type of trade, and this isn't buying a coffee. This is a big transaction. When you load crude oil in Nigeria, it's a deep water port. Usually you're putting two million barrels of crude oil in there. That cargo is holding 160 million dollars worth of hydrocarbons. It goes from Nigeria to some port and the Shandong province. And it has to get paid for and transport it. All of this stuff, right? China doesn't want to use the dollar because they're basically in a cold war, in an economic cold war.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So I think Bitcoin is the only token with spectacular product market fit. And what does that product market fit? The way I would describe it is that let's start here. Bitcoin, in my opinion, is a better store of value and in many cases a better means of exchange, not for microtransactions, but for big payments. Then let's call it 100 to 150 of the world's bottom fiat currencies, not the dollar, not the euro, not the yen. If you're Toyota and you sell a car in Japan, like Yen's fine, it works. You don't need Bitcoin. And if you're buying a coffee in Chad, you don't need Bitcoin to pay for your coffee or pay for your meal. You know, let's say that you're doing international commerce in one of the world's economies that has one of the world's bottom 150 currencies. Or, I mean, no disrespect to these places. Or let's say that.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Every nanosecond, you're going to have a hard time trying to actively day trade this. It's a better thing to just sort of wait around and buy dips, in my opinion, for the longer term megatrend.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Basically, off the table for 10 years, deterioration in sentiment around altcoins, which is something that we should probably touch on briefly because the promise of blockchain as a technological enabler for all sorts of different financial applications is essentially falling short of its promise, which is weighing on the entire space, including Bitcoin, undeservedly so, I would say. And then you also have investor fatigue and capitulation and a few other sort of momentum trades. So ultimately you have this sort of like unstoppable force being the structural bull market for Bitcoin against this immovable object, which is effectively a number of factors representing disenchantment with the space and a lack of new money in the short term, creating this kind of like short-term chop. And I think that unless you're atomically scanning the order book.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Long term narrative, which is Bitcoin becoming sort of a geopolitically relevant force that keeps central banks honest, sovereign, non-sovereign money, you could say, this sort of massive tailwind combined with more of a technical thing, which is ETF's debottlenecking retail and institutional investor access to the asset class. So there's that kind of that bullish thing, as well as the Bitcoin halving, which is a structural fundamental bold thing going on in the background, contrasting with Mt. Gox unlocking.”
2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT