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Jonah van Bourg

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109
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2024-06-25
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2024-06-25
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  1. “Over the long run, I do think it'll shoot up, but in the short run, the reason why I think it stays in a range is because you, you know, for an asset like Bitcoin or any asset, you need an influx of new money to send it higher. I think the big, the most recent big leg hire came from ETFs, legs higher before that came from different participant bases either entering the space for the first time or committing new capital after a spectacular sell-off. This time, there's no real narrative or catalyst for a vast new pool of money to enter the space. You basically have algorithm on algorithm violence going on in the short term. And I think that retail without the backing of tremendous financial and quantitative slash algorithmic firepower getting involved in this chop is going to struggle, I think, in the short term. I think ultimately the reason why we're going to chop, you have one very bullish.”

    2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “Just showing prices, benefiting from that volatility without taking a directional view. And the other is systematic trading strategies that are in the industry, Parlan's described as high frequency or mid-frequency. Basically anything with an outlook of seconds to a day.”

    2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “Exactly what it means to me. I think we're going to be in a wide, you know, sort of a high amplitude volatile range for a while in the short run. I've been a trader for almost 20 years. I've witnessed a lot of some of the best traders to ever do it and also some very junior traders as well. And what you see on Twitter, if you follow crypto accounts, you see junior trader emotions and behavior. You see people getting bearish on the lows and euphoric and bullish on the highs, and that's normal. That's human nature. That's market psychology. I think that people in these sort of public forums trying to predict the price of Bitcoin in the very short run struggle because a lot of them haven't been through the types of mechanisms in professional trading that allow you to profit from short-term chop. And in my opinion, there are two ways to profit from short-term chop. One of them is market making.”

    2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “I think we are absolutely in a crypto bull market. Medium to long term, I am so bullish. I can't even see straight. I think this is the asset to own for the medium to long term more than any other asset. However, in the short run, we've just pulled back from 70 plus thousand dollars per Bitcoin to 61K. In the short term, we're due for some proper chop for a number of reasons.”

    2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “Microstructure is in it had the characteristics of a commodity, like you buy it or mine it. It's useless in its native form, then you turn it into something interesting with some losses, much like a refinery. So that sort of microstructure, but then also microstructure like, hey, this is an OTC product over here for certain counterparties. That looks like FX microstructure. Over here, there's sort of a burgeoning exchange ecosystem. There's FTX and Binance and Coinbase and a few others. That looks a lot like equities or commodities trading. The market microstructure and kind of fundamental asset microstructure started to look familiar.”

    2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “You refine it, i.e., spend some gas and you can turn it into something useful, like it all kind of started to click. And the market had also just become big enough that there was volatility, there was opportunity to trade it. There's opportunity to profit, whether the price went up or down. And the structure, sort of the microstructure of the asset itself looked familiar. That's why I jumped in.”

    2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. “So, a commodity in and of itself, it can be useful if it's a refined commodity like gasoline or it can be completely useless like crude oil. Sometimes who uses crude oil except refinery to turn it into something useful? So to me, I looked at a commodity like ETH and I thought, all right, in and of itself, this token is worthless. But if you refine it by basically buying some of it and spending a bit of it as gas to basically gain access to certificate of authenticity, like that basically proves ownership of your digital goods and services like an NFT or DeFi, you can't get a yield-bearing dollarized instrument, but you can maybe access a yield bearing DeFi stream of income. And you live somewhere outside of the United States. Like to me, it was like, okay, this is a commodity. You buy it or mine it at the time EF was proof of work.”

    2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. “But I was at sort of an oil options trader at VTOL. I focused on systematic trading. Just sort of listed derivatives options, the way to get leverage by buying and selling insurance on the price of oil. And then through that, I got some exposure to physical oil trading as well and some, you know, my hands on some physical cargoes as well. Super exciting. Ultimately, though, when crypto started to look like a commodity in 2021 and an opportunity came along to run an entire trading business, it was pretty exciting for me. So I went and took it. That's how I ended up running trading at Cumberland, which is DRW's cryptocurrency arm.”

    2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. “You so much for having me on the show, Jack. I really appreciate it. I love your show, and I'm honored to be a guest. So I graduated in 2007 and started at Lehman Brothers. Really awesome first job to kind of pick the short straw there. I picked the hot desk CDS trading credit default swaps. And then when Lehman blew up, I sort of saw the eye of that particular storm. So after getting kind of tossed around finance for a while, I ended up in oil trading just by happenstance. A connection of mine was looking for somebody with my skills to be sort of the junior trader on the oil trading desk at Goldman Sachs. And I ended up doing that for four years. And then I got poached by VTOL, which is the world's largest oil trading company shortly thereafter in London. And I worked there for seven years, at which point crypto called, not to bore your listeners too much with my career.”

    2024-06-25 · Forward Guidance · Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT