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Jonathan J. Miller

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107
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2014-12-06
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2014-12-06
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  1. It becomes persistent and higher, especially when you're driving. So really, I'm trying to learn how to let these slights go and find a degree of peace. I forgive Delta Airlines for their gross incompetence, and I choose to use my fly. We know you have choices in airlines today. Hell yeah, and that's why I could at least get over my cost with Delta and gratefully fly very well. Well, they're ready when you are.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. Let me tell you something. It doesn't take much to set me off. I'm getting better, though. I'm much more present. I read a fascinating study the other day that essentially said... The catharctic release of anger does nothing to some people say, ah, you get it out of your system. It turns out they've done studies and people who manifest.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. Jonathan, I've had you here for two hours. Thank you so much for coming in. It's been a pleasure. My pleasure, too, Barry. You know, you and I talk about this stuff all the time, but it's rare when we actually get to sit down for an uninterrupted.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. Everyone Sheila Baer may be one of the few exceptions And the same with a woman who was the head of the Comales Futures Trading.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. So that was subprime. That was liar loans. That was mass securitization. That was a lack of rating agency accountability. There were a lot of factors that caused a functional system to freeze, choke, and spit everything out all at once.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. Which, by the way, supposedly was a debacle, a gnarly mess of corruption and lack of oversight. That in and of itself, I'm sure there's a book in that forever to sift through it. So really, the countries that don't have GSEs in the middle The alternative is fluctuating rates. You don't know

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. But there are some states that are recourse states, meaning that it's a debt you could discharge in bankruptcy, but you can't just walk away. And then there are non-recourse states. Where the state, the contract says in the event that you fail to pay for the house, the bank gets the house, you're done, which was always thought of as, oh, okay, I'm not making the payments, I lose the house. That was thought of as a kind of fair trade-off. Nobody expected a million people to do it at once. Right.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. One of the good parts about the bailout is that we stopped all that lobbying, at least for Fannie and Freddie. We could have done it for the banks and for Wall Street. We'd be in a much healthier country. Nobody thought to say, hey, Goldman and Bank of America shouldn't really be in the corridors of power as much as Fannie and Freddie were stopping both. But hold that aside. Do we need an entity between the buyers and the banks working either with or with the impremature of government to keep mortgage rates down? We've seen Europeans don't have this, although they also don't have 30-year fixed mortgages. How is this done around the world? We'll make this our last question. How are other mortgages? Processed, underwritten, regulated elsewhere that might provide an alternative example versus what Fannie and Freddie does.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. It was funny that I remember seeing guys like Newt Gingrich. Not complain about them, and then you find out years later, even though everybody thinks of Fannie and Freddie is a Democratic entity, they were spreading the money around on both sides of the aisle, which is the smart way to do it.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. You know, the Fanny and Freddie Basers always conflate two or three issues. One is Fanny and Freddie was a horrific Corrupt organization who spread a lot of lucre around DC. They were the biggest

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. But that's always true. Isn't every regulation backwards looking by definition? Absolutely. You know, it's amazing how well the formation of the SEC and Glass-Steagall worked from the 30s because it was backwards looking, but it was also when the pace of change was so slow. Slow. It was good for 75 years. Now, whatever you pass has got like an 18. That's part of my problem.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. Housing and what this means going forward. Assume the government does nothing. No meaning here. How does this play out? Yeah. What happens with Fannie and Freddie? What should the role of government be? And what do we do with this? How does housing?

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. It really does. So somehow. The poor people on a treadmill listening to this, I thought we were talking about real estate. This Rithelts guy will not shut up. So let's bring this back to...

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. I get to sit in the front at Virgin and JetBlue, it doesn't matter. You sit, even more spaces, like 40 bucks. That is the greatest. Air travel, bang for the buck. There is just those extra six inches by you.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. I love Virgin American Airlines, even though the last trip back from San Francisco, the seat didn't work, the juice didn't work, the power on the electrical didn't work, the...

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. So I said, you know, my penalty for this is one day I'm going to have a radio show. And on that radio show, I'm going to tell people.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. I'd like a refund of the difference. They proceeded to explain to me that they couldn't tell the difference in price. Let me stop you, Sec. I work in finance. I could tell you the price of any of 10,000 stocks on any day for the last hundred years at any second of the day. Your own tickets, you can't tell me what the hell these are selling for. I bought it. You could see the day I bought it. What were you selling the coach tickets for? Just refund me the difference. And I said, you know what? And they refuse to do it. They actually sent me a certificate for $250, which when I went to use seven months later was expired.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. And there was like a $600 difference in price. So I don't know what 6GY is or whatever the code was, but you give me two choices, business or coach. I pick business. Is there an empty business class seat? I would like to have it. And at that point, it's like I had to get down there. So I get on the flight to add insult to injury, there's an empty seat in business. And then to make matters worse. When I called Delta to say, all right, I bought this ticket for whatever.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. And the woman says, Well, A, you didn't have a first class ticket. You had a 6GY ticket. And B, that's the only seat we, you know, that's all we have at this time. So I'm like, I just have to stop you there. I don't know what a 6GY is. When I went onto Delta.com, your choice is either first slash business class or economy.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. I don't fly it anymore. And I'll never forget I was flying to Atlanta to give a speech. I got booked first class, and they do what a lot of legacy airlines do, which is when they don't have a full flight, they cancel it and they roll you into the next flight. And I'm like, listen, I got to be somewhere at 6 o'clock tonight. I know your cancellation was nonsense. So we'll get you on this plane. And I go from 2A. 26B, which is the 26

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. Fly Delta, and maybe you'll make it there. I just had a couple of really bad experiences with them. Other people disagree with me about Delta.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. So just sit there and shut the hell up. Right. It's like, you know, oh, wait. So you got yours, and that's the end of it. Of all the hypocritical things, I don't know if they're more hypocritical than they are a lousy airline. But those are your choices. Most hypocritical company in America, worst airline in America. This message is brought to you by Delta.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  23. Carriers overseas, and that's not the government's role. Hey, morons, Neil Irwin points out. You guys were rescued in a government.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  24. That's what's going on. Listen, if the European banks are subsidizing Airbus, how can the US not allow Boeing to compete on the same playing field? And if you don't do that, what ends up happening is they lose the battle. Right. To Airbus because it's subsidized. The ironic thing is the jackasses who are opposed to this are Delta Airlines. Because by the way, worst airline on the planet run by morons. I can't begin to tell you how much I despise that airline. My least favorite airline, search the blog, search Rolts.com for it. I hope you're not an advertiser. You'll see, I don't know and I don't care to tell you the truth. But here's the amazing thing. Delta opposes it because they say, oh, you're subsidizing Boeing sales to competitive.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  25. That's right. That's the trade-off. You're getting a lower default risk because people can afford it. And you're helping. Right. So I'm looking, I've been playing with this idea. I'm looking for a downside to it. And other than the fact that people hate government intervention, but there's an article in the Times today by Neil Irwin talking about formerly of the Washington Post, talking about the import, export. And how certain people hate it because it's government in bed with big business. But the reality is that's the nature of industry globally.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  26. You know, if you have a $400,000 mortgage on a house that's worth $350, does it matter if the interest rate to the note holder, if it's 6% or 4%? It shouldn't make a difference. So there are people who hold the securitized notes. They have to expect a certain amount of maturation that happens normally. This is going to be a huge shift. Now, in theory, it creates a whole bunch of new paper that Wall Street can then move about and sell to these people. And if you want to hold on to whatever you have, you can hold it. The way this gets called is kind of complicated. Yeah, the pushback would be from the internet.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  27. Mobility, it triggers real estate mobility, employment mobility, geographic mobility. That's a key. Thing and I'm looking for the downside

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  28. The whole run. Worse than asleep of the Switch, they're the ones who gave Fanny the GSEs permission in late 2005. Hey, you're losing market share to Wall Street. You don't have to just do conforming loans. You could do non-conforming meaning subprime. Absolutely. And alt A. And so 2006, Fannie and Freddie, go headlong into that, just as the market is topping. They might have been the final spasm, and that was

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  29. What is this? A, can the president order Fannie and Freddie to do that? And B, what would that do to the U.S. economy and to the U.S. housing market?

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  30. Meaning the taxpayer is on the hook for those mortgages, whether they default at 6% or default at a lower rate. What would happen if the president said to the head of Fannie and Freddie, I want to institute a policy that allows people who are current on their mortgages, so we're not dealing with short sales, we're not dealing with underwater sales, to refinance at their existing mortgage amount or lower, so there's no cash outs at the prevailing interest rate. I know in theory this may reduce the income to fanning and Freddie, although there will be all these transaction fees that'll help them.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  31. And so Obama has very interestingly said, I'm going to take a page out of the George Bush playbook and bypass Congress. And there's a lot of stuff I can do through executive order. And so here's what I want to know. We know that there's a tremendous amount of economic activity and economic potential locked up in people who are stuck in their houses. We also know that ultimately Fannie and Freddie

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  32. But that's not how the real world operates You don't get that sort of stuff. So let's solve America's housing, credit, and economic problems all in one fell swoop. So here's what we're going to do. So we've noticed that Obama has essentially given up on Congress who the day we're recording this, we see in a Gallup poll, is now down to a 7% record low since Gallup started asking this question in I think it was 1973 record low not only is it the lowest Congress has ever been, it's the lowest any institution America has ever ever marked

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  33. So, somewhere in the middle is the much healthier, slower growth, more reasonable housing market. And that doesn't happen.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  34. They gave a warranty that said this mortgage, this 30-year mortgage, this 360-month mortgage, will not default for 90 days. And if it does, you could put it back to us. A toaster comes with a longer warranty than that. So how long did it take for the salespeople to figure out, hey, I'm not looking for people who could qualify for a 30-year mortgage, I'm just looking for some port schmuck who's going to make the first three payments. Right. And by the way, the first payment is effectively waived. It's covered at closing. So two payments and I'm out in 90 days. Think of the...

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  35. That's exactly right. Oh no, they knew. They were more than unsuspecting. They were, look, we're taking this risk and spreading it out. One of my favorite discoveries when I was researching bailout nation was the warranty.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  36. If we fight like four times, yeah, it's, and the process was signed here, initial here, checks in the mail. It was insane. So, whereas it's gone to one ridiculous extreme now, we started an opposite extreme, but I hold the banks responsible. If you don't ask people what your income, what's your credit score, what were your tax filings, what's your payment history, how could you complain when they default? You didn't ask for that information. You didn't verify it. Hey, by the way, wink, wink, nudge, nudge. Give us a ballpark. They can sell.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  37. I mean, people signed it and Holding aside the bad behavior of the mortgage folks, if you don't ask for an income history tax file, now this is the opposite of the proctology exam I'm going through with Wells Fargo. If you ask for none of that, by the way, we refinanced the house we're selling, I don't know, two years ago. It was more than fog a mirror, but not a whole lot more. And the house we had sold before this, I think we refinanced that three times over the course of seven years.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  38. I've gotten into arguments with some of my conservative buddies about the liar loans. And my argument goes something like this. You're the bank, it's your capital, you're lending it, right? You're the one who's taking the risk. It's incumbent on you to make sure that the person you're lending it to has an income, has a payment history, has a credit score. When you say don't tell me that, what you're effectively saying is I don't care. So to blame the buyers for, you know, look, we all know the story, wink, wink, nudge, nudge, what was going on with mortgage brokers. Here, leave that blank. I'll fill it in.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  39. Because we know there was a ton of fraud all around. There was application fraud. There was underwriting fraud. There was somebody.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  40. Right. In other words, if you sold a pool of mortgages to Fannie or Freddie and there was some sort of misrepresentation, fraud, whatever

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  41. Yeah, that would be a huge, although you were effectively transferring some income from banks and giving it to everybody else. But the question is what's the proper role for government in all this? And if Fannie and Freddie are ultimately on the hook, why not waive some of these requirements and allow refis? Because if they defaulted 6%, they're going to default at 4%, and they're less likely to default at 4%. So why not let them do a refi?

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  42. So, we really didn't get to what the proper role of government is in this because some of the arguments that are being made is you have rates at record lows, but we have most of America unable to take advantage and refinance because either they lack the credit history, the income history, amazingly, they're making payments on a house at 6%. Imagine if they could refy at 4%.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  43. Be there for 15 minutes, and then it was back to four. I mean, that seems to be the floor. You're not going to bring four.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  44. These documents have been submitted in furtherance of federal tax filing, they appear to be in order to us. That's the most the accountants. They wouldn't say we reviewed it. They certainly aren't going to say we audit it. But apparently.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  45. Really extremely professional, very proactive. They would give us, it started out with this massive list I'm holding my arm six feet apart. And each week I would get an update with, okay, these three items have been collected. Now we're waiting for these things. Because to gather all this stuff up, to get a P&L statement about two of the companies for now the accountants, they're not going to do an audit unless we want to pay a boatload of money for it. And it turns out the words review are a term of art that implies an audit-like level of scrutiny. So Wells Fargo asked for a review of the P&L and the accountants turn around and say,

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  46. Reviewing the document. Right. It's a little more sophisticated than that, but not a whole lot more. And again, to be, look, I've been one of the biggest critics of banks since the financial crisis. To be fair to Wells Fargo, they have been...

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  47. That is, so I'm surprised if that's the case, that any houses are getting. So, you know, we're here in Bloomberg. I have a contract. I do a column for Bloomberg View. And they said, you know, list all your sources of income. Well, here's what I get from speaking appearance. Here's what I get from my day job. And here's what I get. And the drug lords from Washington Post. And here's what I get from Columbia. And here's what I get from Bloomberg. And they're like, oh, well, it looks like it's the same amount every month from Bloomberg. Well, yeah, I have a contract. Can you send us the contract? And I had to ask somebody here, hey, am I allowed to show this to like, yeah, don't worry about it. But meanwhile, you're asking for...

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  48. Checking count. We could have gone out and spent $3,000 on two new computers. We could have done that 30 times over. But instead, the accountant said, hey, it's better for taxes to lease it than to buy. So we leased it for $135. A month. That's what caused a credit score on the owner of the company, the company leased this.

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  49. So we submitted the last of the paperwork. They start processing it. And just before they submit it, they said, we have a question on your credit score. My credit score is okay. It's pretty good. My wife's credit score is phenomenal. And I said, well, what's the issue? You said I was above this cutoff that well over the past month, your credit score dropped six points or something. Can you explain this thing? And I'm like, I look at this. I'm like, I don't know what BEC, what is this? So they have to translate it into English. And it turns out we hired two new people. We bought two new computers for them. And this was the Apple financing. And they said, oh, well, that affects your credit. I go, look, you guys see our balance and our...

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  50. To be fair to Wells Fargo, their staff has been phenomenal. They've given us this checklist and they warned us, hey, listen, by the way, this isn't a multimillion dollar mortgage. This is barely more than a conforming mortgage, a little more. And the hoops they've had us jump through. One house we looked at that was in danger of collapsing into the oh, you saw that, right, right. would have been double the mortgage and the process was more or less the same right and i'm like you know this house is going to tumble into the sea right this it's the risk isn't me it's it's gravity right you're aware of it right so so

    2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source