YouSaid · the spoken record

Jonathan J. Miller

lines on the record: 107
first: 2014-12-06
most recent: 2014-12-06
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“They want no risk. So they've asked for three years of personal tax documents. They've asked for three years of business tax documents. They've asked for six months of corporate and personal bank statements. And I'm happy to give them. And every now and then, they'll say, what's this round number we see on the 15th of each month? Well, it's either drug laws giving me money or a paycheck. Which would you guess? By the way, you have the corporate account and the personal account. You can match, oh, you lost X here? You've got X there. Do you think maybe that's a coincidence? And some of this stuff.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And let me tell you by the time this airs my house probably closed on, my mortgage with Wells Fargo either happened or didn't happen. But I've never experienced anything like the Wells Fargo jumbo investigation. I'm looking to see if I actually got an email from them right now that it's been pretty, pretty astonishing the amount of detail that's...”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a huge lifestyle change, also. You're no longer in the middle class suburb you are. You're now in a whatever, and people love those trade-ups, which we started talking about this during the break. And during the broadcast, I've written about this. I know you've written about it. I think all these tales of this is the end of real estate as an American pastime. I think that's nonsense. Wherever I look, I see people... In love with real estate”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so even some people have pointed to 9798 as the start of housing becoming unhinged. I look at that as just getting back to where it was in 89. And a tremendous amount of stock market wealth. It was just diversification. There were people who turned a half a million dollars into five million or 100,000 into a million. The numbers were just stupid. And so... In terms of how many zeros are on your IRA doesn't affect your lifestyle, but moving to a fill in the blank, bigger, nicer, closer to the water.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Gotta live somewhere for 20 years You brought in 10 million people who previously did not qualify for mortgages. Right. That creates a huge, but it was more than clearly more than just that. Right.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And we were just discussing this in the office yesterday. I remember that was still early in my career. I was on a sell side. I worked in a brokerage firm. And I recall hearing people say repeatedly, hey, I need 250 from my account. I need 180,000. I'm trading up. I'm buying a vacation property. I'm buying Waterfront. And back in the 90s, $200,000 was a huge move to go from $400 to $600 was a big move in real estate. Now it's another bedroom and a little bigger yard. Right. But in the 90s, that was like a $500,000 houses were really nice houses. Now it's a split level, you know, in a development. It's not a...”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But, you know, especially here in New York. So I graduated grad school in 89. And unlike many of my peers who immediately went out and bought co-ops and condos, 87 the market crashed. First thing new Fed chair Greenspan did was cut rates and you had a little boom in real estate in 88, 89 and then as rates kind of normalized, if you bought something in 89 or 90 in New York City, you did not get back to break even till I want to say 96, 97.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And they were always six months to a year behind the market. So the market is at 600, there it's 700. The market drops to 550. They're chasing it. Chasing it, but like on a year lag and never hitting the bid.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And neighbors would, you know, neighbors would say to me, you know, I want to put my house up. And by the way, these numbers are real, my house that I sold for five and change. People were selling for seven, eight, nine, which never nine, but six, seven, almost eight. And I remember having a conversation saying, hey, the guy would say to me, the Smiths sold their house for $750, why can't I get $750? We have a better yard, a better location on the street, a nicer kitchen. Yeah, but the Smiths sold their house two years ago. That was two years. If you have a time machine, I promise you I could get you 750. Right. If you don't have, but I'm going to tell you.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it's an emotional. I recall the conversations I had with people in 06, 07, 08. I'm sure you went through this where you're at a barbecue or cocktail party. Oh, that's all.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's good advice. If you're spending all this time and effort and energy to squeeze every last dime, There are a lot of non-monetary factors that go into the transaction, how smooth it is, how easy the people we're dealing with. He works at a finance company in New York. He's being transferred from elsewhere. They've been so far more or less a pleasure to deal with. And I can't help but wonder if I'm beating people up for that last 10 or $20,000, how much mental anguish. Is that going to generate?”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“When I started as a trader early in my career, I remember one of the head traders once said to me, I was trying to squeeze like the last couple of eighths. This is back in the days of fractions, out of a trade and he's like, look, you could get out of this transaction a quarter point lower. Just hit the bid and move on. But I could squeeze a few more eighths out of this. He goes, hey, I remember this old guy said to me, hey, leave a little something for the next guy. And can I tell you something?”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So when I looked at the run of Zillow data, I said, when I put my house up for sale, there is not going to be a nicer house at this price point. In fact, everything else plus or minus 10 or $20,000 is not going to be as nice because I'm trying to look at it as a buyer. Hey, if I'm trying to choose between this house for $5.99 and that house for $5.99, I'm going to go with a nicer house. And I also saw what sold. Within that price point, I have a feeling that 600 is a tough number to get over because if you're a conforming mortgage.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“With this many bedrooms, two baths, this much, you know, and then I looked at them and I said everything that's sold at or above my price point, you know, I was looking for the price where everything was either much bigger or nicer or waterfront or something that made it special and where that line was. And then I looked at everything that was sold and it was either not as nice as our house. You know we... The whole house and completely. There's nothing, you know what has to be replaced the garage door. We ordered one. It never showed up. Never paid for it. That's literally the only thing that we didn't turn over in the past seven years.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's just not real, but 8, 10, 12 million dollar house, that's like a real number because there are three, four, five million dollar houses. Right. So I use that Zillow app and I said show me every house that sold in my town.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So here's what I did, I love the Zillow app. We've talked about this. We've both been on our boats in the Long Island Sound using the nearby button on the Zillow app to look at all the prices of the houses that are either for sale or sold that are waterfront and it's mind-boggling when I've been in the harbor by Port Washington looking at Kings Point. These houses are 14 and 16 million dollars. Like the co-ops and condos that are 100 million, that's made up. Those are just...”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So here's what I did in order to price the house. And I'll spare the grizzly details, but it's a divorce and it's a little complex and it's a nicer house on a bigger piece of land in a nicer town right next to this big preserve. So I'm paying a couple of bucks more for than, but that house was on the market. We haggled over the price. When we finally, they priced it too high. It had been on the market for almost, I think, 300 days. We're a live one. Oh, look, we got someone interested. It's a contemporary house. You have to either like that or not. So I know it's kind of a little bit of a niche. And it's an odd price. It's not one of these big multi-million dollar houses, but it's not a $500,000 house. And so it was a weird house. And so our concern was, hey, we don't want to lose the house we want to buy. So we're not going to give our house away, but we're not going to try and squeeze. Sometimes getting every last penny is expensive.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, we won 25 more. By the way, the side note about that is they had a $50,000 deposit on a house that their six month in their contract to close elapse. And in order to not lose the 50, they had to come up with another 50, which is why they were pressuring us for the 25. We walked away from that two years later, they got their extra 25, but they lost 100 to get it. And I remember saying to the agent, look, I know I have a facility of numbers, but... You don't need to be a rocket scientist to know that 100 is a bigger number than 25. So that sort of stupidity is rife in real estate.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Break this deal and only cut the price 25 grand, and you ku wait six months, and we could do it at this price. But you don't get both.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that's another story. I could share the granite. So before I tell you how he sold the house, the granite story was we finally. So we ended up in a house by accident. It's one of these stories. We had a bye and then we went and sold our house and then we went back to our buy where we had an agreed deal, but we weren't in contract yet. And the seller had said to us, we decided we won 25,000 more. And basically, it was like, well, wait, you told us we had to do this really quickly, so we cut our price significantly. We cut our price 50 grand that house also first weekend sold. Sold. And that was in the midst of the frenzy, so it was relatively easy to do. Hey, if you want the 25 more, that's fine. But then you get full price or you get fast. You don't get both. So if you won, I'll go”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I know that sounds ridiculous. People don't think of me as a In a kitchen stroking, like this is a nice piece of mica. But this is not my granny.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, someone said, How did you price your house? And we had gotten a huge, this is like a middle class split level 500 and change Long Island suburban bedroom townhouse, not a big mansion. Nice kitchen, though. A beautiful kitchen. I love our granite. I actually had an affair with Argranite. That's a whole nother story. It's suitable for radio. It is. It is. I just fell in love with this granite and it haunted me for days. Right. And every other piece of granite just didn't do it.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I guess it is. So we're talking about real estate, and you and I know each other for a long time. There's a couple of things I wanted to share with you that we haven't caught up. So, you know, our house has been on the market. Right. For two weeks before we were sold, so someone said to me, wait, you sold your house in two weeks, really like seven to ten days, but we had to wait for the contract to come back.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm speaking with Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel, New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal. There's a wall of quotes in your office when I walk in. Like I have five things framed. I walk in, you have like a hallway with like 97. Well, it was cheaper than I.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There was just an article you mentioned Middle Eastern money boosting real estate prices. It was just an article on Bloomberg today that talked about how the Dubai International Airport just passed Heathrow as the biggest international airport in the world. That's just unbelievable. Dubai sees more traffic than London.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's quite fascinating. So we see foreigners coming to the US and buying real estate. Is that what's driving things in London and Sydney? And where else is exactly the same phenomenon?”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Cash only Right. I knew you were going to go that way. That's amazing. 75% Compare that to what the rest of the country is normally like.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Anything So, if someone is looking to pick up a vacation property in Miami, not that I am, but if you were, has that window closed? Did you miss the bargain opportunity?”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sydney and Vancouver, I've always thought of as life wraths for the wealthy Chinese who are concerned one day they have to hit the eject button and get the hell out of Dodge.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Most of us are not going to be in a 50 or 100 million dollar penthouse. In fact, 99.9% of us are not going to be. And what you're telling us is even the 0.01% who can be in it. They're not even there. That's wasted views, aren't they?”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is that necessarily a mistake? You have a very lovely home in Connecticut and it's certainly not a $100,000 ranch. It's a little bit nicer than that. And so most of us.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay. Today I'm speaking with my friend Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel. He is an expert on real estate, appraisal, transactions, home values, et cetera. crunched a lot of data over the past few decades about what drives housing. And one of the things we really haven't talked about much, but I want to discuss is the international component about this, the international buyers coming here to North America, buying up real estate, and the booming real estate markets we see in big cities overseas. So where do we want to start with that?”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The prices always go up. They always go up, right? So, if I use a Zillow app and show me what's sold nearby in Texas, I'm not going to see the same thing that I see anywhere in listen.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Made More. That's right. The shift in credit, and I've written about this over the years, went from the borrower's ability to service the loan to the lender's ability to sell the loan to a securitizer. Once that shifted and the borrower's ability to service it, no longer mattered. Hey, it was just a matter of time before it collapsed. So now we talked before briefly about other regions. Texas is an unusual region. I don't think a lot of people realize why Texas avoided the boom and bust. There was a change in their constitution, I think it was like a century ago, where they are not allowed to do cash out. Cash out. No cashout refinances. It's against their state constitution. So everybody...”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Nonsense. It was based on nothing. Right. It was based on they were building these excerbs in Las Vegas, these big McMansions that was a two and a half hour drive from Urban center, any job center. So, how are you going to support these homes if it takes you whatever, four hours round?”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“By the way, to be fair to Kay Schiller, they do release their 20 and 40 metro region housing prices, and then they jumble them all together. Right, it had a 20 city index. Right. So when you look at the individual index, you could still see, and there are a number of people who then take the case Schiller data and slice and dice and nicel, and you could see a couple of weeks ago I ran two different charts. I forgot who I stole them from. One showed the percentage recovery off the lows and how far they still have to go to get to the highs. And they were, like Las Vegas was in both. They were crazy. Wow, we're up 80% off our lows, but we're still 97%. But crazy numbers.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Today, we're discussing real estate and housing with Jonathan Miller. Earlier, we were talking about the difference regionally. How have these recoveries differed? I know South Florida is different than Arizona is different than Las Vegas is different than Southern California, which is obviously different than Silicon Valley in Northern California. How do these different regions compare? And what does that mean for someone, let's say, living in New York or Washington, D.C.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“One of the people in my office transferred here from Syracuse, they sold a house for $107,000. And I'm like, what is, I don't understand. You look at a picture of it. It looks like a regular little, you know, a starter house, a ranch, but it would go for three and change here. So when we talk about normal housing, what is the story? What should we expect in the near future from this housing market? Has the death of housing been exaggerated?”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Somewhere around that. And, you know, obviously it's really regional, 207,000 in the New York metro area doesn't get you a lot. One of the people in my office gets you.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It absolutely is. We're discussing real estate in America with Jonathan Miller. So now let's talk a little bit about the high end. We understand what's constraining everybody's houses, the normal, I don't even know what to call it, the median house is about 207,000. Right, it's true.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But they are. But they really are. It's a combination of tight lending conditions following a boom and bust in real estate because you end up with a lot of people who don't have any, look, under normal circumstances, you're in a house for seven years. Even if you have tight credit conditions, you should have some equity in the house. But if you bought at the peak before a 35% correction, if you put little or no money down, there is no equity there and that locks you into that house unless you're just going to walk away. And if you do that, good luck qualifying for a new house.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We're talking real estate with Jonathan Miller, CEO and founder of Miller Samuel. Let's hold off on discussing the penthouses just for a few seconds. I want to talk for a moment. I want to pick your brains for a moment about what it is that drives most of real estate. We put together, we were talking about this, we were putting together a list, and it was everything from demographics and household formation to interest rate to wages, but really all this comes back down to credit, doesn't it?”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Just unique to New York. It's London, it's Hong Kong, it's Shanghai, it's Sydney, going to any major city, it's booming because there's a boatload of money.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, because the money is almost an afterthought. It's irrelevant. Right. Hey, I'm going to buy this because I can and I don't care.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well Manhattan is not a Speaking of which, I said there are three things. The third thing, which we'll get to, you've been in pretty much every penthouse in Manhattan. Is that much of an overstatement?”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You felt like you were out in left field. And in fact, to emphasize your data slicing skills, so first the data runs that you put together. Actually, it's a feed into Bloomberg. So if you're on the terminal, I don't know what it's called on the terminal. Yeah, we have a.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or sell. Literally. That was literally an ad they put out in the midst of the housing collapse. It's always a great time to buy or sell a house. What that really means is it's always a great time to generate a commission-based transaction. And PS, my mother, was a real estate agent. This was dinner conversation, so I'm not bashing real estate agents as an outsider. This was literally what I grew up with. So when I mock these people, it's from the inside, not the outside.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The pen at the end, I like that. That's even better. So that's my contribution to, you know it's true if it rhymes, right? Right, absolutely. So the second, so assembling the data was the first thing you did. And then miraculously, you were an objective.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“All right. And what kind of set you apart, I want to talk about three things so people know who you are. First, you were one of the first guys in the real estate world, and this sounds insane because you would have thought this was going on for decades, who said, hey, all these transactions are generating a lot of data. Why don't we take this data and take a closer look at it and see if we can discern any sort of meaning from how long a home is on the market for what it sells relative to its asking price, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera? No one was really doing this before you came along.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Legend in his own mind. If you're in New York real estate or a few, so let me back up and give your CV a little bit. So you started out in this industry as an agent and then an appraiser. I've been a real estate.”
2014-12-06 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: CEO Jonathan J. Miller (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source