YouSaid · the spoken record

Jonathan Miller

lines on the record: 153
first: 2023-09-01
most recent: 2023-09-01
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Yeah, three of my four sons are, all homeowners are multiple homeowners and have set up, it's worked out great. Not that I advise them in the negotiation a little bit and all that, but they really did it on their own and got the homes that they love. My youngest who just turned 25 is living his best life in Manhattan as a renter. But he's got a completely different lifestyle than his brothers in the suburbs.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, I think to do everything I could to buy something earlier on, I didn't buy a house till my mid-30s because I was trying to grow my business. And I think if I had started the idea of starting a little bit earlier is when I think of the prices, even relative to my income at the time. There wasn't such a stretch, such a multiplier effect, even though mortgage rates are much higher”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I got the camera that hangs down in the center of the screen. It's very small, so it doesn't block anything. That was like one of the pandemic, I bought them for one for home and one for the office through a Kickstarter startup. Now there's a bunch more of them. But it's the greatest thing ever for that because you can check emails and look at, you know, if you're not.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, right, right. Y Well, what I have got me through the pandemic. When I do Zoom, you know, because I always found it challenging to look up at like the top of the motor. I hate that.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so I'm sort of, I think of it as I've seen my various four sons going through interview processes. And first of all, it's so different than when I began. So I don't know how relevant my advice would be, but we had, you know, it's all through Zoom. They winnow it down, you know, and then you finally meet in person. You go through like multiple layers of interviews on Zoom. So it's very detached. There's not a lot of sort of personal connecting. So the first sort of base level advice is really think about your appearance on Zoom. It sounds really... Because I find Zoom to be sort of soul sucking. After you do quite a, you know, during the pandemic, I think I was doing like eight hours of Zoom a day.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, yeah, yeah. I was there. It was a pretty rough neighborhood in terms of elevated crime and all that. But now you'd never know it.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Really When I first moved to New York, the East Village or Alphabet City, the Avenue A, BC, as you go further east, I remember there was a condo conversion right on the park there that the neighborhood centers around. And it was spray painted on the front door of this conversion, Die Yuppy Scum. I remember that. That became the battle cry.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But it was an interesting take. And then the one I just, I'm actually just started two books. Sometimes I read books in parallel. It's a book called The Slip, which is about Coente's, I think that's how you pronounce it, slip in downtown Manhattan, was one of the first sort of artists enclaves. Like you would think of Soho or Trebecca in the 70s. This was more like in the 40s.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Who wrote it? I can't remember his name, but it's very, very clear in how he's going through it. And basically there's no, you know, that he contends there's no value to crypto. You know, it's just basically, it's a rife with people nefarious sort of types that most people lose money. Who knows?”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I just read a sort of fast and easy book just out of the blue called Easy Money. And it's basically a throttling of cryptocurrency.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. Well, also, too, yeah, the penthouse there sold for 100 million Michael Dell bought it. That was the, at the time, that was the highest for a short period of time. But my point is that you look at other buildings during the same era, like 432 Park, or you look at 220 Central Park South, they didn't see 50% discounts. In fact, 220 Central Park South, a tornado realty development, the resales after they were bought from the sponsor, we've had a resale seller double what they bought from the sponsor. Which is sort of crazy, and it's only two blocks away.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, right, exactly. Right, right. No, and it's what's interesting in New York is it's building by building. So you have 157, which was, I call Extel Development, which I think they were originally, I read this in the Billionaire's Rowbook. They were originally called Intel development, but they got sued for the name. So they changed their name to XTEL, because from the sponsor, the developer in 2016 by 2017, 2018, their values were 50% less. They were selling for 50% less. That seems to be about the marker. So you say, oh, that applies to all billionaires in a row. No. You have...”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And now, so 2021 was the record. And it was in the low 40s. I want to say there were 43 sales. There were, you know, somewhere in the mid 30s and 22, and then this year looks like it's on track to be probably in the mid-20s. And you look at this and there's like a transaction like a week or, you know, every other week. But in 2021, there was like a transaction every, it felt like every day it wasn't. It became... That is detached from the local market that it sits within any sense. In many ways, these transactions Have nothing, you know, they get so many more eyeballs through article coverage on high-end transactions and Titans of Industry buying these places, but they really are this market. A national international market that's not like, hey, these are New York City sales. Now these are not that well connected to New York”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I think of it as a market of outliers And so I told you earlier that I track, I started in 2014 tracking any sales that actually closed for 50 million or higher. And I went back in time back to like 2000. And really that world began in about 2014. Where there were maybe 17 or 18 nationally sales, 50 million or higher.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, exactly. Save yourself $11 million. Right. I think the numbers now is that they're about in aggregate, about 60% sold. But there are buildings that have sold out like 432 Park. And then buildings that are, you know, having trouble, I mean, this is, you know, the miscalculation of billionaires row was that the market, the global market wasn't as wide and as deep as everybody thought. You know, I used to joke that these buildings or the high-end buildings in New York were like the world's most expensive bank safety deposit boxes where you put your valuables in and then you don't go there very often. And that's mainly what these are where the there was a New York magazine article years ago, one of these buildings where It's dark at night. There's like one or two lights on because nobody's there, right?”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, actually on the air during a Bloomberg interview, a TV interview, I don't remember like 2000. 15 or 16. But you have 111 West 57th on billion. Billionaires Row is really sort of in East 57th Street. To Park Avenue on the east and probably 8th Avenue on the west. But then in the book, she includes 220 Central Park South, which has the $239 million sale.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The materials and the engineering have changed dramatically, but they're more expensive to build, right? And yeah, and to see, you know, you have a condo that's 1,500 Feet tall, tallest condo in the world.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I just finished two books. One was Billionaire's Row, which was written by a friend of mine, a reporter named Kathy Clark. And if you ever want to know what insane the development world is, this is the book.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The right context. Right. So I interact with a lot of media. I probably get six interactions by email or phone call every day. I don't have any PR. And it's just because I'm accessible. That's the biggest thing about media”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a lot. But it's, I don't know, it's fascinating because on one hand, you're looking at all these different markets, but they, you know, you can look at very similar metrics and tell different stories by the sort of combination of the metrics. And guess what? There's median price trends in Orange County, California, just like there are in Manhattan. What do they say? And actually, I think what has Really established the report series for Douglas Salman is that it's anybody can spit out numbers. It's sort of capturing the, you know, what's actually happening.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I always felt like she recognized what I could do and she pushed and protected and nurtured and made it happen so I'm forever appreciative of that.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I ended up, and my first boss out of college, a gentleman named John Nelson, really just Taught me how to navigate the politics and how to get stuff done He was a fascinated with post-it notes, but I always felt a really good feeling. I'd have to say In sort of the modern era, was Dottie Herman, who was basically the person that put Douglas Selman together, she's not active with the company these days, but she saw what I did with market studies, what I could do, and she embraced it and pushed me, pushed me to expand my footprint out of sight of New York City.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Ringing, tweeting. I don't even know what you call it. Yeah, I call it threading. But yeah, I'm on it every day just playing around and seeing. Not quite twittering.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But it's true. I listened to one of my favorite new podcasts is called Hard Fork. It's a New York Times podcast about technology. And it's the guys laugh throughout the whole show. They're serious writers. It's highly entertaining, especially following the Elon Musk and Twitter escapades over the last six months. It's been incredible. But really good stuff. I listened to, I really...”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So every year, every time you ask me this, because I know you're a big fan of you've called this the golden age of television.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm outdoors and you're in the center of Central Park South looking north and you see fifth in Central Park West on either side and it's just spectacular and many people don't get that opportunity. And that was an amazing experience. It may end up being, hopefully I'll be able to use it in my book someday as a cover.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I thought, you know, forgetting the condition it was in and just like the look. Was one of my favorites in the Sherry Netherland, which is a hotel co-op on the corner of the southeast corner of the park. It was just spectacular. The view, you know, the thing that I don't get to do very much in my business is see these apartments at night. The night with all the lights. Although we used to live in when we lived in Manhattan, we could see the park. But I have to say, and I have a picture of myself standing on the, there's a, I think it's 50 Central Park South. It's not the penthouse. It was a penthouse that was going to be created inside the giant green roof. That was, you know, looks like copper, even though it was fake. It was painted green to look like it was copper.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it's funny because no, I don't see that. But in the early days of my blogging, I think I started in 05 and you were several years ahead of me. You were my first interview on my podcast. I recall that.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, especially after the last year after rates, they really clamp down. So lending is much tighter now than it was a year ago, but a year ago. It was significantly tighter than the last three decades, excluding the housing bubble going back in time. It was banks just never lost their mind, which I think is a huge difference in the two eras.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Outside their purview. But in this cycle, Got easier during the boom, but it was still well below long-term norms. And so, you know, even with this, you know, the inventory sort of distortion, we're not looking at the banking world like collapsing at the end of this because on the lending itself, because the lending standards never really got crazy.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it straddles 30%. But also I would differ a little bit and say that we're not locked in on easy money. Banks during the called the pandemic or a housing boom never lost their mind.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, he actually was really calling for, I did a thing with him like two years later at Lincoln Center, and he was like predicting like a 50% correction.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No. Okay. Some other. I don't remember what he wasn't a housing person. And I got to listen to them. I was listening to him talk and I remember this is really surreal because Lorenzo.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Was the headline No, no. It was one of my favorite moments during the run-up to the housing bubble was I was in the green room on a national TV special. It was like housing and it was a town hall. And I was literally in the green room with David Leray. Robert Schill”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So academia for looking at the state of the housing market, but the problem with Kay Schiller is it's the equivalent, and I've joked with you before about this, you know, highly respected Nobel laureate. But it's not really suitable for everyday use because it reflects the housing market five to seven months ago. So like when you got up this morning, did you take the average temperature of five to seven months ago to decide what you're going to wear today, right? It was made for trading. To hedge housing and it never, you know, there was no adoption of it. And then they went from there and then they went to Core Logic, which is more sort of.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's exactly right. And actually, if you look at the timeline, so NAR was like what the Fed used, like all the NAR data for understanding the housing market. And you had the, I can't remember the David Leray. He was an economist. And then now it's been Lawrence You ever since. And I remember like in the beginning, it was like, you know, the when Lehman happened, the Lehman collapsed, it was like, it's a bubble with a slow leak. The housing bubble. And there were all kinds of housing bubble blogs, you know, just huge, you know, like, you know, it's a black hole. We're all going to die. We're going to fall on the edge of the abyss. So you get like the extremes. And then what was interesting, the Fed pivoted to K Schiller.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and I remember after it, you know, like I'm only in this to try to make it right. And to make it fair, I don't get anything out of it other than not taining our industry.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Absolutely, then you shouldn't be the chairman of the committee that changes the regulations. That causes changes that go into the cloud. Anyway, it's convoluted, but that's what we're dealing with. It's a little.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Find your testimony. Yeah, absolutely. And I was highly critical of the foundation, which there were five experts and two of them were from the foundation. And one of them attacked me, it sort of named names Because of the massive conflict this person has in her job with what her husband does for a living, which is.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Really, CFPB, like anybody that touches on the mortgage process. And I was invited, right? Testified for three hours. And it was my only first time on C-SPAN, but it was three hours. Right.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Correct. It's raising some questions. So you're sort of preaching to the choir when you say, hey, we don't have this problem. Even though, and listen, is there unconscious bias in everyday life? Of course there is, right? So, the other side is my focus is to force the foundation or remove the leadership of the foundation so that the regulatory world or sort of the government. Side of the story, you know, that there's a representative membership, you know, not zero of people of color, right? That's the first step because this other step Is just not effective, right? So I've been talking about this for like a couple of years. And then the appraisal subcommittee, which is made up of like the heads of, you know, of various organizations like FDIC and the GSEs.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Correct, so but that is a big part of the narrative. So you have like two parts of the appraisal world. You have now you have a whole sloth of people saying, hey, I'm not a racist like I'm just assessing the value. And then you have people like me that are saying, let's not, you know, we don't have a leg to stand on as an industry say, hey,”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's largely, yes, that's largely the way we've seen or so of these stories and they get recirculated over and over again. What we're actually seeing now is So, the logic is that hey, you know, I think my home is worth $500,000. You appraised it for $400,000, so you're a racist.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And the appraisal subcommittee is basically provides no oversight. This appraisal foundation not-for-profit literally has no oversight. They figured out a workaround, which I've exposed. And they're flying to Dubai first class and they're going to having meetings in Palm Springs.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And on the matter of diversity in 2021, the appraisal industry was 400th out of 400 in diversity. We were less diverse than farmers and ranchers. And this, it fluctuates a couple percentage points up and down every year. But the structure of the industry and how new people get in was created by the appraisal foundation. And they have basically refused to take any action. They set up committees and councils as if that is action, but they don't actually do anything. And so it's become more and more heated to the point where the appraisal subcommittee, which is allowed to monitor and review the appraisal foundation. The Appraisal Foundation is basically to maintain the sort of the verbiage of our license, our certification, what we're supposed to do.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it began during the pandemic, and it's just an endless array of problems, which I'll sort of explain in a second. But what it led to is this idea, and it's one of the platforms of the Biden's White House in terms of removing racial bias from the appraisal industry, residential and commercial. For context, the Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks 400 industries in the U.S.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Praiserville is what it is. Yeah, so, you know, in the residential appraisal world where you buy a house or refinance your house, your mortgage on your house, appraiser comes out, values the property, and then gives the appraisal to the bank, and then the bank decides how much money they're going to give you, and then you close. This industry is If you think about the numbers of people, there's about 75,000 appraisers nationwide. There's organizations and trade groups that are active, but really the whole industry has been asleep at the switch for the changes that have been coming. I have been publicly highly critical of an organization called the Appraisal Foundation.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, that's part of it. More Idaho. But yeah, absolutely. The way I think that we should look at housing. During this pandemic, is virtually every housing market was impacted. And we saw dramatic price growth in a very short Period of time because the Fed, I believe, kept rates too low for too long. And now have to undo the damage by making rates a lot higher, but prices aren't really falling.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That seems to be interesting? It's funny. We have good friends in Montana, and I look at the housing prices of things they're appraising.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oven, right? It's a Exactly. I mean Yeah, it's interesting because I just as a kid and as an adult with kids, I always went north for vacation, like skiing or cold weather. And the idea of that heat of my relatives that have moved to Florida, you adjust to it. Yeah. I guess I'm just not willing to.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source