YouSaid · the spoken record

Jonathan Miller

lines on the record: 153
first: 2023-09-01
most recent: 2023-09-01
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“And that was my point before FEMA federal program is basically cutting out by having such low pricing relative to private markets is cutting out the private markets. So it's just bringing on more risk onto the taxpayer for these locations. Yeah, wildfires in California. All this just means A higher cost of home ownership and eventually some markets. Not being suitable for occupancy. That's really what it comes down to.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You have the insurance industry sort of grappling with can they continue at the premium, even close to the premiums that they're with when you think of there's already insurance crisis in Florida”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Other than that, nothing more. Other than that, it's a hoax. Exactly. But what's interesting. So first of all, A, it adds to your cost of homeownership.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. And actually, we're seeing climate change, I think of it as just bringing a higher frequency of disasters and larger scale disasters into bigger and more.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I do have one of my oldest sons got a great job offer and he works in Fort Lauderdale coming from Connecticut and he likes the heat so told him”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And I put it into my newsletter periodically. And, you know, it used to be something over $50 million was like LA and Manhattan and the Hamptons and maybe an occasional sale in Palm Beach. Now, dozens of markets in Florida in general are seeing these transactions. It's much more, I'm just thinking of that as a proxy for sort of this discovery of Florida is much more broad-based than, hey, Miami and Palm Beach. That's it. It's a lot more spread out than it was. And I think that says a lot about how the economy is expanding into this sort of year-round living.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I would, what's a little different and why I call Florida going undergoing this restructure rather than it being some sort of fluke or, you know, high moment in price and then it's going to go down is because of work from home, as I said. And part of what's happening is the market is maturing. It's pivoted into There's a lot more high end. So one of the things that I noticed, you know, like as a hobby, I collect because I'm a dull and boring numbers guy. I collect 50 million plus closings across the US.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. So the thinking was when that law went into effect January 1st of 2018 that it was going to be like the Beverly Hillbillies packing up and like going to Florida and the brokerage community was all telling me, you know, we're sitting there, we're waiting. And it didn't happen at scale. It was definitely noticeable, but it wasn't this mad gold brush. When the pandemic hit,”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The deduction on the combination of your state and local taxes and your property taxes, the deduction was only was capped at $10,000. When you have houses in Westchester with annual real estate taxes of $175,000, that's a tremendous cost hit. So, I don't know what my point was.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I thought. No, I think it is real. It's probably, well, it is exaggerated a bit, but it's clearly something that changed during the pandemic. And the reason why I say that is in January 1st of 2018,”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a tough balancing act. You can certainly see in housing prices that there's even with all the building that's going on, there's inadequate supply. The focus seems to be on other institutions that create employment like healthcare, medical tech, medical type services. There's been a lot of emphasis on sort of competing with New York, bringing financial services there. There's been a lot of marquee announcements like Citadel and others that have another one that they're going to move their location.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Substantial. And so, you know, New York State and the New York metro area has to think of themselves in competition with other areas, which is it is seemingly unable to do.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To Florida. And they've had, I'd say, you know, there's been some standout results. I wouldn't say it's over the top successful, but it's certainly the population growth since the pandemic. Florida's up about 7%.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, the way to think of Florida, the way I think of it without sounding like I work for the tourism board of Florida is the real estate industry down there because of work from home is undergoing restructuring, that it's sort of evolving from a place you go to vacation or visit to a place that you live. And what is remarkable about some of the towns. Our cities in Florida is they now hire employees specifically to recruit CEOs from the Northeast Who then will bring their companies”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I don't know what the division is or the breakout is for commercial specifically, but it is inherent in our revenue structure for real estate to succeed. And even before the pandemic, we had changes in laws like the mansion tax. Right. The rent law changed so that conversions of existing buildings are almost impossible. So, you know, those sort of large scale revenues from residential real estate are severely challenged going forward to the city. And it's in the city's interest. The city's sort of caught the state is the one that's driving these new laws. But the revenue is critical to the city for the city not to rely on the state. So it's sort of this catch 22.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly right. So, but that's part of, but yeah, like the long term view. But I look at it as when, so the big problem or big challenge is New York City's budget is over 50% of revenues are real estate related.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Correct Yeah, actually, the joke during the pandemic is Manhattan's just becoming all residential, right? Everything's going to convert to residential. That was sort of the thinking.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or they create an alley or a center. They cut out through the floors, but that's very expensive, right? So there's ways around it, but it is not like one of these, hey, let's flip the switch. Because of the... Debt service, it's going to this. Four or five years at a minimum to sort of see it”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Come down to market, and you can think of other reuses of the property. Also, a lot of people don't realize don't think of when they think of this challenge is, especially in midtown Manhattan, where you have these very big office buildings, the floor plates.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that's where you could see more creative adaptive reuse where the new owner is able because they don't have the same level of debt service. So price.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They can't cover the debt service. So I think the way this is going to play out, and it's already starting, you can read about, you read San Francisco, you can read in New York City what's happening, is that we're going to see a lot of a tremendous amount of office space move from weekends to stronghands.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay, so that's the next stage. So when you think about it, and my company was looking for new office space, we ended up staying in the same space, got a great deal, build out and all that. But what we found when we were looking at, we were looking at Class B, you know, there's A, B, and C for those aren't familiar and really the upper half of Class A isn't going to be impacted in a significant way. It's the bottom half of A and B and C. It's all bets are off, right? And the one thing that I didn't fully appreciate until I went through sort of looking for space is that we were talking about sellers capitulating to the weakened market conditions. In the office environment, landlords, many landlords can't capitulate because the debt service”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. Class B or C But the numbers don't work. Like to convert them to residential, any developer will pretty much say that's not possible. But on the margin”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it creates this really confusing narrative because we have office buildings that are 50% or less than 50% used according to Castle Cardswipe data as sort of a proxy for that. And then we have record rental prices, right? Where people are...”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And the phrase fleeing the city. Fleeing. And so I took it as, you know, this was in the spring of 2020, I was thinking, boy, if all this is true, there's going to be 11 people left in Manhattan by the fall, which of course was not the story. And we've seen a”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The other boroughs had a sharp drop in the outbounds, meaning that everything got a lot better. The narrative is, and I remember in the early days of the lockdown. Where if I read and took every headline to heart, you know, because the key words, like you had told me years ago, like if you put gold in your post title, you're going to get a lot of traffic, right? And the words during the pandemic were Exodus”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, what's really interesting if you look at the census data, because, you know, I think, you know, the term migration can take all kinds of connotations in the context of New York City, the concept of net migration. What's the difference between inbound and outbound? And in 2022, according to census, Manhattan had a net inbound”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that New York Post is the one that had that article that was just a brilliant move for getting attention because it was so, you know, you have a nightclub owner saying, not only saying New York is dead, they added New York is dead forever. Like, you know, proclamation.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's not realistic in my mind. I don't care whether the economy is strong or weak. It's not going to be the same. But again, I think probably we're at a period of time right now where it's, you know, the default is going to be more time in the office than we have right now, but not much more.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. So that's the challenge. You can't do that over Zoom. You can't. And so that is what's going to be figured out over the next five to ten years. I don't think that's, there's a quick solution. And you definitely have, you know, some industries or some companies that want five days a week right now. And so the idea is that what I've heard is like, hey, you're in a, you know, we're going into a recession or weak economic period, so therefore everybody's going to go into work four and a half days a week because they want FaceTime with their boss. Know, I just don't think that's.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And the argument is, first of all, that can vary by industries that are more collaborative. The challenge is you can't, it's harder to build corporate culture and to train new talent.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and I think there's people that have the opinion that we're going to revert back to, let's call it four and a half days a week, you know, where like, you know, weekend schedules, people work half days on Friday, but just call it four and a half days a week. And I contend. that we're probably, you know, if I had to make up a number, I'd say we're at two and a half to three days a week as an average. That's what we are in our company and most of the people I interact with, you know, it's like a little less than three days.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The sort of stereotypical description of work from home was suburb to city. You know, people moved out of the city. They bought, you know, they lived with relatives or they bought houses or rented and then commuted via Zoom into their job in the city. The problem with that, first of all, is completely misleading. I contend there's just as many people on the upper east side of Manhattan that were doing work from home as people that live in Westchester. I mean, you know, that the city people are committing commuting in the city the same way. So it wasn't about like the driving in or taking the train into the city so much as it was just physically not going to work and working in your pajamas or just totally a lot more.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Far easier to navigate. And it became part of our culture almost overnight. And so as a result, it changed what I call I described as the tether between work and home that normally when people, majority of people that are buying homes that aren't retired are thinking about the commute and how far away and that all got thrown out and we're rethinking it to the point where we've seen people move farther from the city. I'm one of those people where I don't go into the city as much as I did. There are people that love still working five days a week and there's people that don't want to work at all. In the office.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that's a fair description. In fact, I think the easiest way to sort of start talking about the subject is the idea that Zoom became ubiquitous within 24 hours after the lockdown. Suddenly everybody in the world knew what zooming was and you'd probably never heard of the software beforehand. While there had certainly been, there's other video products this was.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Centuries to buy houses. Right. We wanted to get next one is $1,600. I really wanted to get something that was built before the U.S. was a country. Right.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It isn't. No, I mean, that's how we thought about it. It was perfect. And we were joking because our old house was built in 1825, and this one's built in 1755. Right. You're running.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And out of the house, and we wanted to live a little bit more in the country. And so it was just perfect. But it was like for shock value, I always own it, you know, and say, hey, we overpaid.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We're ready to move like we became empty nesters. That's why we moved this last time. Our four kids are all gainfully employed. And, you know, out of the house.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In fact, the last three houses, I haven't paid under the ask. We haven't paid under the ask. Yeah, yeah, because of the timing that it came on and it was like, you know, I always seem to.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's going to be a long time. And also, too, we just absolutely love it. And I've never looked at it as an investment vehicle. Housing itself, it's just a slow-moving asset.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it's funny in this market, like we sold right as the market pivoted. I remember. And my wife always kids me about being overly eager to pay full retail.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because there's a shortage of listings, you still have control of the transaction in that sense. But you don't have the same level of control you had a year, year and a half ago. But not only that as your mother was very, very accurate in her assessment, you shouldn't think that way, you know, unless you're involved.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, because really, especially even more so today than a year or two ago, you have to bend over backwards in accommodation as a seller to be accommodating. You don't control. Well, I shouldn't say that. You do.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, like think of a raised ranch with a two car garage on the side. Now the whole thing gets raised up to the second floor. So it's really a three-story structure, right? Pilings and place to park your car, the first floor, which is now the second floor, which is where the garage was. The data is not definitive yet, but the house that's in between these two properties is going to be punished in value because the buyer, you know, if they want to have flood coverage, they have to elevate or raise the house.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The assumpt But it was almost comical to see all these garages on the second floor, and you can't really get your car up there. So it's obviously going to be redesigned and made into some other.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Substantial, like a whole flight of stairs Correct. Yes. And that's how they can continue to get flood insurance. So neighborhood where I used to live, the neighborhood next to me in the next town over was on the water. We kept our boat there. You'd see a house that was normally just sitting where it was sitting before Sandy. And then you saw the houses on either side were like on 10 foot pilings. Imagine the garage now on the second floor.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Long Island, the South Shore. And what came out of that is a lot of product that was destroyed and was middle class housing. And so the resulting product on the water line, and they rewrote the FEMA maps for the New York City metro area. Making them much bigger coverage area. And politically, it was shot down because it would make it more expensive. And what we saw in parallel to that is that say you had two modest houses on the shore, south shore of Long Island that were destroyed. Investors would come in and buy both lots and build one big house. And that's been after. Significant flooding events like in Fort Myers, you know, that's what you're seeing come back. It's, you know, the existing sort of middle class, modest housing is destroyed. And those homeowners can't build.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Correct. I'm sure. Yeah, so I see ads on TV for FEMA and it's cheap and That seems counter to sort of public safety, a dozen or almost a dozen years ago when we had Superstorm Sandy hit one of the byproducts. I know I'm going off on a tangent.”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In flood zones, and flood zones are not just on the coastline, you know, we're seeing dramatic flooding problems in the northeast inland”
2023-09-01 · Masters in Business · Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source