YouSaid · the spoken record

Judea Pearl

lines on the record: 89
first: 2019-12-11
most recent: 2019-12-11
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“The fundamental law of counterfactuals. It's a simple equation. What counterfactual in terms of model surgery? That's it because everything follows from that. If you get that, all the rest. I can die in peace and my student can derive all my knowledge by mother madle”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Against your professor. I wrote the book of why. In order to democratize common sense. Another to instill rebellious spirits in students so they wouldn't wait until the professor get things right.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Ask your Your questions are never dumped. And solves them your own way. And don't take no for an answer. If they are really dumb, you will find them quickly by trying an arrow to see that they are not leading any place. But follow them. To understand things your way. That is my advice. I don't know if it's going to help anyone.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Many good memories are immense. He was my ment He had Sense of balance that I didn't have. He saw the beauty in every person. He was not as emotional as I am. looking things in perspective he really liked every person he really grew up with the idea that a foreigner Is a reason for curiosity, not for fear. At one time we went in Berkeley and homeless came out from some dark alley and said, hey man, can you spare a dime? I retweeted back, you know, two feet back. And then he just hugged him and said, here's a dime and Jo Joseph, maybe you want some money to take a bus or whatever. Where did you get it? Not for me.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I see some beautiful people coming from Pakistan. See beautiful people everywhere, but I see horrible Propagation of evil in this country too. Shows you how populistic slogans can catch the mind of the best intellectuals.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If we don't want to be part of it. If we want to separate good from evil, that's one of the first things that in the Garden of Eden, you remember the first thing that God tells him was, hey, you want some knowledge? Here is a tree of good and evil.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The message was that we are not treating Terr We are treating it as a bargaining device that is accepted. People have grievance and they go and bum restaurants. It's normal. Look, you're even not surprised when I tell you that. Twenty years ago you said what for grievance you go and blow a restaurant? Today is becoming normalized. The banalization of evil And we have created that to ourselves by normalizing, by making it part of Political life. It's a political debate. Every Terrorists yesterday become the freedom fighter today and tomorrow it'll become terrorist against switchable.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think we are capable of evil. If you are indoctrinated sufficiently long, and in depth we are capable of ISIS capable of Nazism Yes, we are but the question is whether we after we have gone through some Western education and we learn that everything is really relative There is no absolute God there's only a belief in God whether we are capable now of being transformed under certain circumstances to become I'm worried about it because some people say yes, given the right circumstances, given economical... Bad economical crisis, you are capable of doing it too. And that worries me. I want to believe it. I'm not capable.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“the court yes absolutely yes We don't really appreciate the depth of the hate at which which billions of people are educated. We don't understand it. I just listened recently. What they teach you in Mogad When the In the We knew exactly who did it, the Jews. We didn't know how, but we knew who did it. You don't appreciate what it means to us. The depth is unbelievable.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The story is known as he was abducted in Pakistan by al Qaeda driven sect. Under various pretences, I don't even pay attention to what the pretense will. Originally they wanted to have the United States Deliver some promised airplanes. It was all made up and all these demands were bogus. I don't know really, but eventually he was Executed in front of a camera.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Equip robot with religious belief. Suppose we find out, or we agree that religion is good to you to keep you in line. Should we give them about the metaphor of a god? As a matter of fact, the robot will get it without us also. Why? Because the robot will reason by metaphor What is the Most primitive metaphor a child grows with. Mother smile and Follow teaching father image and mother image, that's God. So whether you want it or not Assuming that the robot is going to have a mother and father, it may only have a programmer which doesn't supply warmth and discipline. Discipline, it does. So the robot will have a model of the trainer. And everything that happens in the world, cosmology and so on is going to be mapped into the programmer.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“was all in plant but we survived by miracle and then the second miracle that not many people talk about the next phase how no one went hungry and the country managed to triple its population you know what it means to triple population imagine united states Going from what 350 million to million?”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What I learned from that. It was a miracle It was a miracle that I served in the 1950s. I don't know how we survived. The country was under austerity It tripled its population from six hundred thousand to a million point eight when I finished college. No one went hungry. Yes. When you wanted to make an omelet, In the rest one you had to bring your own egg. They imprison people from bringing food from a farming here, from the villages to the city. But no one went And I always add to Higher education did not suffer any budget cuts. They still invested in me, in my wife, in our generation to get the best education that they could. So I'm really... Grateful for the opportunity. And I'm trying to pay back now. It's a miracle that we survived the war of 1948. We were so close to a second genocide.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, because I was in the Nahal, which is a combination of agricultural work and military service. We were supposed, I was really idealist, I wanted to be a member of the kibbutz throughout my life and to live a communal life. So I prepared myself for that. Slowly, slowly with a greater challenge.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We have more than a sample of mal. We have theories. And that's a good, you don't need to be statisticians. So sample of mine doesn't mean... Poverty of knowledge, it's not Sample of one plus theory, conjectural theory of what could happen. That we do have. But I really feel helpless in contributing to this argument because I know so little. My imagination is limited and I know how much I don't know But I'm concerned.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I am concerned because I know we are building a new species that has the capability of exceeding Exceeding us Our capabilities and can breed itself and take over the world absolutely. Species it is uncontrolled. We don't know the degree to which we control it. We don't even understand what it means to be able to control these new species. So I'm concerned. I don't have anything to add to that because Such a gray area, that unknown. It never happened in history. The only The only time it happened in history was evolution with human beings. It wasn't very successful, was it? Some people say it was a great success.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This way. Some people tell me, no, this is only part of consciousness. And then they start telling me what they really mean by consciousness. And I lose them. For me, consciousness is having a blueprint of your software”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Who's me? That's consciousness. They have a model of yourself. Where do you get this muddle? You look at yourself as if you are a part of the environment. If you build a muddle of yourself versus the environment, then you can say, I need to have a model of myself. I have abilities, I have desires and so forth. I have a blueprint of my software. Not a full detail because I cannot get the halting problem. But I have a blueprint. So on that level of a blueprint, I can modify things. I can look at myself in the mirror and say, hmm, if I change this, tweak this model, I'm going to perform differently. That is what we mean by free will.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So it's very easy for me to map you to mine. I don't have to rebuild the model. It's much easier to say, oh, you're like me. Okay, therefore I would not hate you.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Cost of factors is necessary component to build ethical machine because the machine has to empathize to understand what's good for you to build a model of you as a recipient which should be very much what is compassion they imagine that you Suffer pain as much as me.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Just communication. And that's important to have a quick and effective means of communicating knowledge. If the coach tells you you should have passed the ball, pink, he conveys so much knowledge to you as opposed to what go down and change your software. That's the alternative. But the coach doesn't know your software. So how can the coach tell you you should have passed the ball? But our language is very effective. You should have passed the ball. You know your software, you tweak the right module, and next time you don't do it.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because they communicate like us. Reward and punishment, yes, you didn't pass the ball the right time and so forth, therefore you're going to sit on the bench for the next two. If they start communicating like that, the question is will they play a better soccer as opposed to what? As a part what they do now. Without this ability to reason about reward and punishment, responsibility. I can only think about”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So far, we know only one thing if robots can communicate with reward and punishment among themselves. Hating each other on the wrists and say you shouldn't have done that. Playing better soccer because he can do that.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The end goal is going to be a machine that can answer sophisticated questions, counterfactuals of regret, compassion. Responsibility and free will.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I'm driven by that. All my life, I'm driven just by one thing. But I go slowly, I go from what I know to the next step incrementally.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Intervention. But it could be at random. For instance, the rifleman is sick that day. He just vomits or whatever. So he can observe this unexpected event which introduced noise. The noise still have to be random to be able to relate it to randomized experiment. And then you have observational studies from which to infer the strings behind the facts. It's doable to a certain extent. But now that we are experts in what you can do once you have a model, we can reason back and say what kind of data you need to build a model.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You want machine to learn, I do under a robot. So Robert is watching. Trials like that. Two hundred trials, and then he has to answer the question, what if riflemen A refrain from shooting?”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay, let's assume we learn it. We want to learn it So what do we know? We put a learning machine that watches execution trials in many countries and many locations. All the machine can learn is to see shot or not shut, dead not dead. A court issued an order or didn't facts. From the fact you don't know who listens to whom. You don't know that the Condemned person listen to the bullets. The bullets are listening to the Captain, okay. All we hear is one command, two shots dead, a triple of variables. Yes, no, yes, no. That you can learn who listens to whom and you can answer the question no.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You and I can consult it. The other riflemen would have killed him, okay? I want a machine to do that. Is it so hard to ask the machine to do that? It's such a simple If they have a calculus for that.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“About between not deriving the order of event, we are given cause effect relationship. There ought to be Obeying the time president's relationship, we are giving that. And now that we ask questions about other codes of relationship that could be derived from the initial ones, but were not given to us explicitly. Like you in the case of the firing squad I give you in the first chapter and I ask what if riflemen A decline to shoot? Could the prisoner still be dead? decline to shoot. It means that disobey order and the The rule of the games were that he is a Obedient and marksmen, that's how you start. That's the initial order. But now you ask questions about breaking the rules. What if he decided not to pull the trigger? He just became a pacifist.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You take results of studies in diverse population and in diverse condition and you may infer the cause effect of a new population which doesn't even resemble any of the ones studied. And you do that by do calculus. You do that by generalizing from one study to another. See what's common between the two? What is different? Let's ignore the differences and pull out the commonality. And you do it over maybe 100 hospitals around the world. From that you can get really mileage from big data. It's not only do you have many samples, you have many sources of data.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“First, they're going to work without collision. It's going to work in harmony. The human is going to jumpstart. The exercise by providing qualitative non-committing Murders of How the Universe Work Universe, how they in reality the domain of discourse works. The machine is going to take over from that point of view and derive whatever the calculus says can be derived. Namely, quantitative answer to our questions. These are complex questions. I'll give you some example of complex questions Buggle your mind if you think about it.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't know, I'm not a futurist. All I can tell you is that we are making tremendous progress in the causal reasoning domain, something that I even... Dare to call it revolution the cause of revolution because What we have achieved in the past three decades is something that Dwarf, everything that was derived in the entire history.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“One of the most important learning, taking something which theoretically is derivable. and store it inaccessible format. I'll give you an example chess. Finding the winning starting move in chest. There is an answer. He's a winning move for white or there isn't, or there is a draw. So it is the answer to that is available through the rule of the games. But we don't know the answer. So what does a chess master have that we don't have? He has taught explicitly an evaluation of certain complex pattern of the border. We don't have it. Ordinary people like me, I don't know about you, I'm not a chess master. So for me I have to derive. Think that for him is explicit. He has seen it before, or you have seen the Padan before, or similar pattern you see metaphor, and he Generalize and say don't move in the dangerous move.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You're familiar with it, so the child is familiar with billiard balls. So the child could predict that if you let loose of one ball, the other one will bounce off. You obtain that by familiarity. Familiarity is answering questions and you store the answer explicitly. You don't have to derive them. So this is the idea of a metaphor. All our life, all our intelligence is built around metaphors. Mapping from the unfamiliar to the familiar, but the marriage between the two is tough things which we haven't yet been able to algorithmatize.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What does it mean if you are familiar? Familiar means that answers to certain questions are explicit. You don't have to derive them.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because he said Kamal, if we are walking on a turtle shell, then a ray of light coming to this angle will be different this place will be a different angle than coming to this place. I know the distance, I'll measure the two angles, and then I have the radius of the shell of the turtle And he did. And he found Measurement were very close to the measurements we have today. That's something that would not occur. Babylon astronomer Even though the Babylonian experiments were the machine learning people of the time, they fit curves and they could predict the eclipse of the moon much more accurately than the Greek because they fit curve. That's a different met Something that you're familiar with a game, a turtle shell.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Metaphysical Is an expert system. In expert, it's mapping problem. With which you are not familiar to a problem with which you are familiar. I give you a good example. The Greek believed that the sky is an opaque shell. It's not really infinite space, it's an opaque shell, and the stars are holes. Hooked in the shell through which you see the eternal light. It was a metaphor, why? Because they understand how you poke holes in shells. They were not familiar with infinite space. And we are working on a share of a turtle. And if you get too close to the edge, you're going to fall down to Hadith or wherever. That's a metaphor. It's not true but this kind of metaphor enabled Aristotenes to measure the radius of the”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it's a matter of combining simple models for many, many sources, for many, many disciplines. Metaphors are the basics of human intelligence and basis.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There is in the sense that you have only 20 variables and they are just variables, they're not mechanics. It's easy. You just put them on the graph and they speak to you.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's so complicated. I agree, and I don't know how to organize it because I've been spoiled by easy problems such as cancer and death.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Kids do it by playful manipulation plus guidance pure wisdom. And he'll say They meet each other, can they say ye shouldn't have taken my toy?”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's another question. How do the babies come out with a counterfactual model of the world? And babies do that. They know how to play in the crib. They know which balls hits another one. And so they learn it by. Playful manipulat The simple world involve only toys and balls and chimes, but if you think about the complex world.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Before you go learning, You have to ask yourself suppose I give you all the information. Can the robot perform the task that I ask him to perform? Can he reason and say, no, it wasn't the aspirin? It was the good news you received on the phone.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In every equation of physics, let's say you have a Hooke's law and you put one kilogram on the spring and the spring is one meter and you say had this weight been two kilogram, the spring would have been twice as long. No problem for physicists to say that except that mathematics is in the form of equation, equating the weight. Proportionality constant and the length of the string. So you don't have the asymmetry in the equation of physics, although every physicist thinks counterfactually. Ask high school kids, had the weight been three kilograms, what would be the length of the spring? They can answer it immediately because we do the counterfactual processing in their mind and then they put it into equation, algebraic equation, and they solve it. But a robot cannot do that.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So you know that things took place. No, Joe Kilchmo. and Schmo would be alive had John not used his gun. So that is the counterfactual. It had a confliction, it had a conflict here or clash between observed facts He did shoot and the hypothetical predicate which says had he not shut, you have a clash, a logical clash. They cannot exist together. That's counterfactual. And that is the source of our explanation of the idea of responsibility, regret and free will.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But you have to have another important information. I took the aspirin and my headache is gone. It's very important information. Now I'm reasoning backward. And I said, what is the aspirin?”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If I tell you Acting one way affects something. I didn't explain anything yet. If I ask you, was it aspirant that cure my headache I'm asking for explanation what cure my headache and Putting a finger on aspir Provide an explanation. It was aspirin. It was responsible for your headache going away. If you didn't take the aspirin you would still have a headache.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The more error you add The less likely you are to identify things from purely observational data. So if the whole world is bus Everybody affect everybody else. The answer is you can answer it ahead of time. I cannot answer my query from observational data. I have to go to experiments.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know what you don't know? Because if you don't know, you say it's possible that X affect the traffic tomorrow. It's possible. You put down an arrow which says it's possible. Every arrow in the graph says it's possible.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source