YouSaid · the spoken record

Judea Pearl

lines on the record: 89
first: 2019-12-11
most recent: 2019-12-11
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“But you don't have to encode more than what you know. God forbid if you put the economists are doing that, they call identifying assumptions. They put assumptions if they don't prevail in the world. They put assumptions so they can identify things.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We need to Assumptions about who affects whom. If the graph had a certain property, the answer is yes, you can get it from observational study. If the graph is too meshy bushy bushy, the answer is no, you cannot. Then you need to find either different kind of observation that you haven't considered or one experiment.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Construct a model, I can still not answer it. I have to see if I have enough information in the model that would allow me. To find out the effects of intervention from a non interventional study. Hence of study.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, physically yes. But hypothetically, no. If we have a model, that is what the muddle is for. So you conduct surgeries on a model, you take it apart, put it back, that's the idea of a model. It's the idea of thinking counterfactual, imagining, and that idea of creativity.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Incisive and delicate, which means do means do X means, I'm going to touch only X. Directly into X. So that means that I change only things which depends on x by virtue of exchanging. But I don't depend things which are not depends on x like I wouldn't change your sex or your age, I just change your blood pressure.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To imagine how the experiment will look like, even though we cannot physically and technologically conduct it. I'll give you an example. What is the effect of blood pressure on mortality? I cannot go down into your vein and change your blood pressure, but I can ask the question. If I have a muddle of your body, I can imagine the effect of how the blood pressure change will affect your mortality. How I go into the muddle and I conduct this surgery about the blood pressure even though physically I can do I cannot do it.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Variable. Let's put it expresses. And then the way that we interpret it. The mechanism by which we take your query and we translate into something that we can work with is by giving it semantics, saying that you have a model of the world and you cut off all the incoming arrow into x and you're looking now in the modified, mutilated model you ask for the probability of y. That is interpretation of doing x because by doing things you liberate them from all influences that acted upon them earlier and you subject them to the tyranny of your muscles.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We have a dual operator. So the do countless connected on the duo operator itself connects the operation of doing to something that we can see.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In the first exercise is express it mathematically. What do you want to? Like, if I tell you what will be the effect of taking this drug, you have to say that in mathematics. How do you say that? Can you write down the question? Not the answer. I want to find the effect of the drug on my headache. Write down, write it down.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Even suppose I start with easy What's the effect of a drug on recovery? What are the aspirin that caused my headache to be cured or what did the television program or the good news I received? This is already a difficult question because find a cause from effect. The easy one is find effects from”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a different game in the causal domain because It's essentially the same thing. You have to start with some knowledge and you're trying to enrich it. But you don't enrich it by asking for more rules. You enrich it by asking for the data, to look at the data and quantifying and ask queries that you couldn't answer when you started. couldn't because the question is Quite complex, and it's not within the capability of ordinary cognition, of ordinary person, ordinary expert even to answer.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In certain area it's easy because we have only four or five major variables. In the epidemiologist or an economist can put them down. Minimum wage? Unemployment policy XYZ and start collecting data and quantify the parameters that were left unquantified. with initial knowledge. Work that you find in experimental psychology In economics everywhere, in health science, that's a routine thing. But I should emphasize, you should start with the research question, what do you want to estimate? Once you have that, you have a language of expressing what you want to estimate. You think it's easy? No.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“When you represent it, I ask you, can you infer x or y or z? Can you answer certain queries? Is it complex? Is it polynomial? All the computer science exercises we do once you give me Representation for my knowledge Then you can ask me now I understand how to represent things, how do I discover them? It is secondary thing.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, you need the human expert to specify the initial model. Initial model could be very qualitative. Just who listens to whom? By whom listen to, I mean one variable listened to the other. So I say, okay, the tide is listening to the moon. When not to And so far, this is our understanding of the world in which we live. Scientific understanding of reality We have to start there because if we don't know how to handle cause and effect relationship, when we do have a model and we certainly do not know how to handle it, when we don't have a model, so let's start first in AI slogan is representation first, discovery second. But if I give you all the information that you need, can you do anything useful with it? Is the first representation? How do you represent it? I give you all the knowledge in the world. How do you represent it?”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“hypothesis everything which has to do with causality comes from a theory The difference is only how you interrogate the theory you have in your mind.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We start asking ourselves questions What are the factors that would determine the value of x could be blood pressure death? Hungry”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So there was a very simple, also the same research questions. We want to know a vegetarian food assist or obstruct your mental ability. And the question is very old Even Democritus If I could discover one cause of things, I would rather discover one cause and be a king of Persia. The task of discovering causes was in the mind of ancient people from many, many years ago. But the mathematics of doing that was only developed in the 1920s. So science has left us often Science has not provided us with the mathematics to capture the idea of x cos y and y does not cause x because all the question of physics are symmetrical algebraic the equality sign goes both ways”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The exile the people from Israel that were taken in exile to Babylon to serve the king. He wanted to serve them king's food, which was meat and Daniel as a good Jew couldn't eat non kosher food, so he asked them to eat vegetarian food, but the king overseers said I'm sorry, but if the king see that your performance falls below that of other kids, he's going to kill me. And Daniel said, let's make an experiment. Let's take four of us from Jerusalem, give us vegetarian food. Let's take the other guys to eat the king's food and in about a week's time we'll test our performance. And you know the answer? Of course he did the experiment and they were So much better than the others, and the king's nominated them to super. Position in his case. So it was a first experiment”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We call it observational study. we form the correlation detected we have to infer causal relationship Whether it was the automatic piece that caused them to fall asleep or so that is an issue that is about 120 years old. I should only go 100 years old. Maybe it's no, actually I should say he's 2,000 years old because we have this experiment by Daniel, by the Babylonian king. that wanted”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Which discipline you have in mind? I'll tell you if they are absolute or if they are outdated or they are about to get outdated Tell me which one do you have in”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“of naive science. Statisticians know it. The statisticians know that if you condition on a third variable, then you can destroy or create correlations among two other variables. They know it. It's in a data. Nothing surprising. That's why they all dismiss the Simpson paradox. Ah, we know it. We don't know anything about it.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“don't look at the flaw the world works like that but the flaws come if we try to impose Causal logic on coalition it doesn't work too well.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Condition probably to how things vary when one of them stays the same. Now staying the same means that I have chosen to look only at those incidents where the guy has the same value as previous one as my choice as an experimenter. So things that are not correlated before could become correlated like for instance if I have two coins which are uncorrelated and I choose only those flippings experiments in which a bell rings and a bell rings when at least one of them Isaac Tail then suddenly I see correlation between the two coins because I only look at the cases where the bell rang. You see, it's my design with my ignorance, essentially, with my audacity to ignore certain incidents, I suddenly create A correlation where it doesn't exist physically.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Correlation occurs when two things vary together over a very long time as one way of measuring it or when you have a bunch of variables that all very cohesively. Then we have a correlation here and usually when we think about correlation we really think causally things cannot be correlated unless there is a reason for them to vary together. Why should they vary together if they don't see each other? Why should they vary together?”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Of everything around us allows you to predict things with a certain probability and computing those probabilities are very useful. The whole idea of A unique prediction to be able to survive. If you cannot predict the future, then you're just crossing the street will be extremely fearful.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It is solid norish by if you tell me that ninety percent shoans smoking will give you lung cancer in five years versus 10% it's a piece of useful knowledge”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Faking it is having it. Okay, that's what two intestines are about. Faking intelligence is intelligent because it's not easy to fake. It's very hard to fake and you can only fake if you have it.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A machine that act as though it had free will. It communicates with other machines as though they have free will, and you wouldn't be able to tell the difference between a machine that does and machines that doesn't have free will.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The world is a monistic concept. And as far as the neuron firing is concerned, it's deterministic to first approximation.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it's a puzzle. It's a puzzle that you have the dice flipping machine or guard. And the result of the flipping propagated with speed faster than the speed of light. We can't explain it. But it only governs microscopic phenomena.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You have Pemman in the comment swirling around one way or the other you can have a store one or zero for a computer. That's what we worked on in the 1960 RCA and I discovered a few nice phenomena with the vortices. How in Pearl Vortex, but you can Google it. Right. I didn't know about it, but the physicists picked up on my thesis, on my PhD thesis. It became popular, thin film superconductors became important for high temperature superconductors. So they call it pearl vortex without my knowledge. I discovered only about 15 years ago.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's how to choose no. I enjoy doing physics and even have a vortex named on my name. So I have Investment in immortality.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Get the beer as an engineering technion, right? I moved here for graduate work and I did engineering in addition to physics in Girls. It would combine very nicely with my thesis, which I did in RCA laboratories in superconductivity.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, we just got a glimpse of that history together with Atheon. So every exercise in math was connected with a person. The time of the The period”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The people behind the theorems, their cousins and their nieces and their faces. And how they jumped from the bathtub when they screamed Eureka and ran naked in town.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not a little bit. I mean, we got a very solid Background in mathematics because our teachers were geniuses. Our teachers came from Germany in the 1930s running away from Hitler. They left their careers in Heidelberg and Berlin and came to teach high school in Israel. And we were the beneficiary of that experiment. So they taught us math a good way.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Visually, it's more transparent. But once you get over to algebra, then a linear equation is a straight line. This translation is easily absorbed. And to pass a tangent to a circle, you know, you have the basic theorems and you can do it with algebra. But the transition from one to another was really, I thought that Descartes was the greatest mathematician of all times.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It connects algebra with your geometry. Okay, so Descartes had the idea that geometrical construction and geometrical theorems and assumptions can be articulated in the language of algebra, which means that all the proof that we did in high school and try to prove that the three bisectors meet at one point and that all this can be proven by shuffling around. Notation.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, the first mystery. That's a good one. Yeah, I remember that. The fever for three days. When I learn about Descartes analytic geometry, And I found out that you can do all the construction in geometry using algebra. I couldn't get over it. I simply couldn't get out of bed.”
2019-12-11 · Lex Fridman Podcast · Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source