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Katie Stockton

lines on the record: 83
first: 2017-09-08
most recent: 2017-09-08
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Oh gosh, I would say probably that DeMarc indicators would be the first thing that come to mind as being a tool. So that came in probably about halfway through my career. And it would have been great to have, you know, known more about them in the earlier stages. I think that would have certainly helped around 2000, for example, when they would have been added value in terms of the inflection points that we saw, because that came without very much warning as you could imagine. Not a lot of divergences ahead of that peak.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now, with some hindsight, I can say I would have benefited from really knowing what was going on around me in the firm because I think we get so narrow focused in what our day-to-day job is, especially at a younger age, but we lose sight of how we fit into the big picture. And I think just to know what's going on around you is really obviously valuable.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This actually does happen often. So I would always say listen, I don't know that there's a lot of job opportunity in technical analysis as a purist, sort of in my seat where I'm a sell side publishing technical strategist. There's not that many of us. And yet I think as a discipline, something that you should learn as one part of a bigger picture, that by all means everybody should pursue the CMT should actually really take it upon themselves to learn it as a discipline, not only for their career, but also for their personal investing. I think it's invaluable. And, you know, just to have, I guess, a bigger scope to what you're doing, whether it means also pursuing the CFA or something like this. a new graduate going into a firm, I think a mistake that I made”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It puts me in a happy place and it clears my head. And I think that I found that, and not that I get to paint often, but painting does that for me too. And I think it's healthy for everybody to be able to remove themselves from the market.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, well, you know, I actually don't have a lot of time outside of the office, but just I spend time with my kids and enjoy traveling.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, yeah. And I mean, we could go back to the conversation about the put call ratio, you know, in terms of 2008, where I just stayed with it too long because I was giving too much weight to the market internals when I should have given more weight to the momentum and trendfall engages, which I had always advocated as more important. So when it actually came to the moment, I just stayed in too long is what happened. So it was actually deviating from my discipline because I got married to my view. So there is a lot of risk in that, especially from that top down perspective. And we have to, again, keep ourselves honest by really adhering to the indicators, the trend falling indicators especially to help us determine our biases. And so as not to get too married to your views.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it must be, you know, we do a lot of project work for clients that's a bit more quantitative in its nature. I don't think you can make charts quantitative solely, but certainly with the tools that we have from the technologies that are now offered to us, I think there's a lot of upside in applying it more systematically and quantitatively. I don't know enough about it yet, but I think there's some interesting things going on there.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's really the acceptance of the discipline, and it's not like it happened overnight, but certainly the acceptance of what we do every day. And by the way, most people don't do this as their primary career. They do it as some are just hobbyists. You know, they do it for personal reasons to help their investing. And others are in a different seat, like they're a trader for a hedge fund or their portfolio manager at a mutual fund trying to understand these things. So they can use it in a way that facilitates what they already do. And so the adoption has really gotten to the point where I'm not going to client meetings and having to pitch them on the value of technical analysis, but rather to focus on what we can really add value in, which is idea generation, risk management, identifying important levels and looking for opportunities.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Love that book. Yeah. Yeah. I do like, I try to alternate fiction and non fiction just to mix things up. And, you know, I just, and then I have my US weekly.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In a way. Right. Learn from others' mistakes, right? So it's the textbooks that for me have really helped me move my discipline forward.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Woodson McGee is Martin Pring's book, you know, technical analysis explained, which I'm sure has been updated a million times since I first read it. So more so those types of books as opposed to reminiscences of a stock operator, that type of thing.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What else have you done? You know, I like to read, I like a good beach read, to be honest, but that aside, you know, the DeMarc indicators, I've read Jason Pearl's book probably most recently on those, and that's very accessible. And I think there's not enough literature out there on those. So I've appreciated that. And then it goes back to a lot of the textbooks on technical analysis, which, you know, at the end of the day, it is somewhat of a mathematical discipline. And so they're not going to keep you up at night, but at least they'll give you the tools that you need to.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, goodness. Well, that's a hard question for a mom of three young children. We're reading time to read books is sort of, you know, it's hard to find that.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Honestly, I haven't found my inspiration in any of the investors, which to be honest, tend to be a bit more fundamentally or macro oriented the ones that we all know. So I've found it more in the tools that I've derived from my mentors. So I don't really have an inspiration in terms of my investing style, except to say that it really is technical oriented. And it came from studying for the CMT program and being inspired by some of the methods that I read about in that program.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It is, I think, equally as old as candlesticks. And in the same way, they're designed to give you that sort of one look of the chart where you're getting as much information as you can into that one view. So he exposed me to those, which have been invaluable in my work, and also the DeMarc indicators he taught me. So I've been very lucky to have people like Rick and Mike and Tom as mentors, you know, over my career. And also, you know, I've been highly involved in the now named CMT Association. I was vice president of that organization for some time and was able to get to know people like Ralph Akampora, who, by the way, came to guest lecture, that class that I took in college. And he stood up in front of the class and took the Wall Street Journal and tore it in half and said, you don't need this anymore. And boy, he got our attention, you know, all of our finance majors in the room.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's right. And that's where a lot of the indicators that I use came from is from Mike Curly's discipline. And then beyond that, I worked for Rick Benson when I was at Morgan Stanley. And he gave me exposure to some of the indicators that really differentiate my work, I'd say, from the counterparts at other firms, whether it be the cloud model, which is also called Ichimoku.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, he's been around and he was sort of in the Navy and had just this really interesting approach. You'll actually find a lot of technicians have a military background or background in some kind of engineering field. It just lends itself to that kind of analysis. And so he taught me some.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so they've been very successful and certainly have a great following on Wall Street. And, you know, from there, I worked for someone named Mike Hurley. And that was when I had a stint in San Francisco working for a firm called e-Offering, which was at the time, you know, this is late 90s, mind you, the investment bank of e-trade. And we were bought by Whit Soundview. And so I worked with Mike Curly. And that was really my first. That name is very familiar.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, really, the people that I've worked for have been so blessed in having exposure to them and also to be able to embrace their disciplines at a young age where I was still somewhat impressionable and hadn't gotten set in my ways yet. So it would have started with Tom Dorsey at Dorsey Wright in Richmond who inspired me and helped me understand how technical analysis fit with everything else really in sort of the bigger world of finance and Wall Street.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's exactly right. And it's something that you can get lost in. And I think the charts are in a way the same. And I spend probably too much time making my charts look really pretty.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, I think it's just the way you think about the world. And my background, I was not a talented artist, but I've always had an interest in art and things that are sort of more visual in nature. So I think that's, you know, it's not something a lot of people would know about me, but I enjoyed painting and creating things.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that's what I love about the charts that they sort of isolate exactly what is happening from a supply-demand perspective without getting tainted by the stories. And it's not to say you shouldn't have a reason to invest in something. There should always be a reason and however that reason is derived. That's important because those are the drivers of the trends. So, there might be some fundamental story that's very important to the future of a stock. I would never disagree with that. But when it comes to just headlines and hearsay and anecdotal evidence of something, I think it can be very dangerous. And that's why the charts can help us sort of stay honest.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't think so. I think again, it's really more about trend following support and resistance over bought oversold measures that those really are more important and that the market internal measures, while they can be very helpful, they're informational at extremes. And I think people like to talk about them because they tell more of a story. And we all like a good story and want to understand why something's happening. But in reality, the charts are designed to help us understand what's happening. They're not really designed to give you that story. So I almost think that sentiment and breath and leadership get a little too much press.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The Pook Hall ratio for me burned me a little bit in 2008. And it's when the extremes became more extreme. So I have a little bad taste of my math from that period. And what it's actually done in a way has led me to give them not no weight, but certainly less weight. And that's why I like that they're one out of maybe seven components of that sentiment indicator, because there ends that checks and balances system that helps you understand when an extreme is really extreme these days.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Up everywhere. It does show up, and it's a bit easier, if you will. And maybe that's because it's been more often a bull market than not. So maybe that's why. But the CNN Fear agreed that index tends to be a bit better at market tops”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's the VIX, the put call ratios, junk bond demand, safe haven demand. There's a momentum reading. There's a breath reading based on advancers and decliners. And I think I'm forgetting one. But taken together, I think you're actually getting a nice system of checks and balances. And what I found is as an oscillating measure, it's much better than the average sentiment gauge that we all, you know, grew up with in a way. Yeah, the polls and the surveys at identifying market tops, not just market bottoms. Most every sentiment gauge is quite good at helping us identify market bottoms”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think so. I think we've finally reached that for the first time since March based on this one measure. And what I've identified is it typically has a lead time of a few weeks before you see it and it's a short-term peak, not anything. Know really worrisome or bearish, but a short term peak tends to unfold in the SP 500 a couple few weeks after you get the extremes and the measures of sentiment. So I think it can be helpful in that regard. However, I do give more weight to the momentum gauges or the trend falling gauges, whether it's a MACD indicator or some kind of oscillator. Those to me take precedence because they're a little bit closer to the price data that the market is giving us.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's relevant to the conversation right now because we do have that extreme reading in the CNN Fear and Greet Index for One, which is enhancing that low reading in the VICS. We're at an extreme, right?”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, I'm not sure how it would affect the VIX, except to say that it should contribute to the trending nature of the tape and therein also would see the VIX sort of flounder at low levels as the major indices forge higher. And whether it's passively or actively driven, at the end of the day, we want to just. Be on the right side of the moving averages and of the momentum behind the market regardless of what those momentum forces may be. And so our goal is to understand when the loss of momentum is great enough to lead to a shift in that trend that we need to take action around. So it just depends on your timeframe at that stage. Do you want to miss the 3% pullback or are you okay with that? Are you okay sitting through that? So that becomes a matter of preference.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, for me, if we see it spike to 12, my guess is that we're getting a pullback to at least the 50 day moving average in the S&P 500, it wouldn't take much to get the VIX to that level. The spikes tend to last maybe two weeks in duration at most. So you have to be very quick to act on it when you start to see it maybe inch above its 20 day or 50-day moving average of its own. It is not really a trending index. So we had to be careful using tools like moving averages and identifying levels because maybe they're less important.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What I don't look at it probably in the same way as derivatives trader might, for example, but rather as a gauge of sentiment and something that tends to have an inverse relationship to the S&P 500. So in that sense, it can hold some information. However, I care most about when it spikes. And it's difficult to identify when that might occur. We do have some tools that can assist in that over bought oversold measures, things like that. But the way I see the VIX is just as one gauge of sentiment and what we've had to do with the fact that it keeps making new lows is to reset our extreme levels or thresholds for that overly complacent reading, which I would argue now it is there, especially.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We're approaching 2500, and I think it won't be a straight path higher up to 2640, but I think it's a viable target based on the trajectory of the trend. And so that's a context within which we view everything else.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was about, I'd say, July of 2016 is when we broke out. You know, that was on back of the Brexit Low. And that breakout yielded a measured move price projection, which is a very common way of deriving an upside target when you don't really have resistance to use. And that gave us a target of that at that time of about 2,400. Which we reached, of course, or the SP 500 reached in, I think it was Q2 and met some resistance there, which is also a very natural occurrence. Now that we've seen a subsequent breakout above that level, we were able to reassign another measured move price projection, in this case of about 2640.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Advancers and decliners would certainly be a breath measure that I look at them on a cumulative basis and also an oscillating basis and things like the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages. And sentiment, I tend to look at the VIX, but I'd say even more so I look at something called the CNN Fear and Greed Index, which incorporates the VIX, but also put call ratios and junk bond demand, things that are transactionally based gauges of sentiment. So I tend to find a lot of value in that. And right now we're actually seeing an extreme in that sentiment measure. Now, in terms of that environment, we did see some major oversold extremes in these market internals at those lows that made them appear more tradable. Now with the breakout, it's really when we saw the S&P exceed resistance based on previous highs that we could get confident that it was ready to run again.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's right. So it's not even the level. I'm just looking for spikes and the market internal measures that I mentioned, those really are, to me, the most informational win thorough streams. Otherwise, I generally ignore them.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I do look at it on an aggregate basis and when it tends to spike is when it actually holds information because that's more emotionally charged trading.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh gosh, I want to say February 2015. So it got ahead of that environment, which created was a more challenging environment for trend following. So with that MACT cell signal that we had, we were able to give a bit more weight to the overbought oversold measures, knowing that we were in some kind of corrective period. In addition to that, what we found in 2016 especially, it was the year of the climactic lows, right? We saw the February low of that year, the Brexit low, and then the election low. All of these were really climactic. And by that I mean the emotions were really running high. You got these massive declines that almost by traditional methods would have looked like breakdowns on the charts, but we have some tools called market internal measures, which would be volume, breadth, leadership, and sentiment that can help us identify these climaxes as they're underway. So volume, you know, to circle back in the conversation to volume.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, most of 2016. And yeah, I guess really at the end of 2015, it was still, it was morphine into that sort of range bound tape. But what was range bound here in the US was actually much more of a correction in international markets. So if you looked at Japan or if you looked at European benchmarks, you'll see that they really saw a pronounced corrective phase. And what captured that was not the MACD indicator so much on the weeklies because that was a bit noisy. But if you looked on the monthlies, you actually saw a MACD cell signal and the monthly bar chart of the S&P 500. I believe it was...”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's not an envelope as much as it is. It's a spread between two moving averages. And what's nice about it, it has a signal line, so it has a small. But to me, to try to capture those, let's call it two to three month moves, which I think really is where we are in the market right now, especially in equities, that you can't afford to miss those anymore. You know, it used to be, you said it and forget it and ride the long-term trend, but quite frankly, now there's such a, I guess, pressure on people to perform on a quarterly or even monthly basis these days that they really need to capture these moves. And the weekly MACD indicator, so looking at a MACD on a weekly bar chart can be really a great tool for that.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it is trend, especially in a trending tape. So I would say in a non-trending tape, which of course there's an art in identifying what kind of environment you're in, I'll use more of the overbought oversold measures. Sometimes it depends on the timeframe as well. So theoretically, every indicator should apply over every timeframe, almost fractal in that way. And yet I found in my experience that I get more use from the oscillators in short term environments. So looking at, say, the intraday charts, looking at a 30 minute bar chart of the S&P futures, I'm actually more inclined to use an overbought oversold measure than a trend-falling device. It's just a matter of preference, sort of like a trading tool. But I would say if I had to take my one indicator to the deserted island, it would probably be the MACD indicator, which stands for moving average convergence divergence.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Takeaway, and so we don't take every signal for face value, but rather say, okay, what are the probabilities here based on what everything else is saying?”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is you can add it, they have a right, they have a service on the Bloomberg terminal, which I do use and use it quite a lot, actually. And to me, I find value in the indicators that they provide in identifying inflection points. And it's the closest thing that I have to something that's a coincidence indicator of inflections. And as you could imagine, most technical indicators tend to have a lag because they're moving average based. So it's just inherent that they have that lag. But there is something about the DeMarc indicators and at least the ones that I use in their construction that can get us a bit closer to the actual inflection point. Now, unfortunately, like any indicator, because there is no one all or, you know, holy grail, we have to cross-reference the DeMarc indicators with other tools, whether it's the stochastics, which will also give you sort of an overbought oversold reading or momentum-based tools. Those taken together can give you the best.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Know there are so many of them, and I honestly only scratch the surface with the DeMarc indicators that are available to us.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, and I mean, that is going on behind the scenes, by the way. So I am taking the Fibonacci's and the DeMarc indicators and applying them to the ratios. And that all goes into the analysis. But I don't do anybody any favors by getting two in the weeds with those indicators, but rather explain my discipline and then explain the takeaways in a way that people can understand them.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's right. So they've changed the name, which is a bit more aligned with the CFA societies. The CMT, which is chartered market technician, has really grown as a designation. And for me, it's been invaluable in my career because, you know, it's credentializes you to publish this research, but also in preparing for that, you do learn a lot of tools and other disciplines that might be interesting. And so it helps expand your horizons a little bit.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The upside. You know, I call it a parabolic uptrend when you see those, and they are very difficult to find entries that you can feel confident in adding exposure. I do think the charts are very viable ways to analyze these currencies because, you know, otherwise information is somewhat limited. So you can really identify trends, and they're certainly trending. And then in order to take advantage of them, I think you need to have confidence in buying breakouts. So if you actually see a fresh catalyst on the charts where you're exceeding a resistance level, then you have to have confidence in buying higher. And it's often the right thing to do.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, you know, it's been amazing. The long term relative strength ratios, you know, EM versus developed or EM versus US, but finally in the past, I'd say year or so, you've really seen stabilization in terms of relative performance globally. And maybe that's because it is so much more of a global marketplace. Or maybe it's just because finally these markets are participating and their economies are looking better. Whatever the driving force, it certainly has manifested itself in some turnarounds in the ratios.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“More euro strength, more dollars. More dollar weakness, and we've gotten some underperformance from European equities and outperformance from U.S. equities. But I think that shift is maybe less currency related and more related to other macro influences and certainly whether or not those markets are oversold on a relative basis”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Pretty big drop and almost barely interrupted by relief rallies. So it's really been a persistent drop in sort of differentiates itself because of that. And I think when you have a trend like that, you just want to be respectful of it. When you look at the euro, it's not an exact inverse, but it certainly close to it. If you look at EUR USC, you see this breakout that I mentioned from the wide trading range. And that breakout, just simply based on the width of the range would target about 125 without any indication of the time frame over which that would happen, but longer term.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and I mean, I'm not one to comment on the macro influences of the FX moves. The way I look at it is as the dollar index, which is really massively euro centered. The dollar index had seen such a nice run up, as you mentioned, but really in the last few months has just been in this persistent downtrend.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source