YouSaid · the spoken record

Katie Stockton

lines on the record: 83
first: 2017-09-08
most recent: 2017-09-08
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Like a non trending market, so the euro would be a great example of one that had been non-trending really for a couple of years until recently we had a breakout in the euro and that then becomes more of a trending situation and probably for that reason we'll stay more sticky in our views.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm very fluid in my market views, and I find that when something strongly trending like the SP 500 as one, you don't change your views that much, except to manage those views from a shorter term perspective to say, well, there's some greater risk right now of a pullback and that type of thing can be very added value to people that are trying to determine whether to wait or add exposure immediately. So we try to manage the views on a short-term basis, but the longer-term views tend to be pretty sticky where they're a little bit less sticky would be when you have a range bound type of situation.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, the written product by no means is the end all of what we do, but it's certainly foundational to what we do. We publish two weekly notes. One is our top-down view, stocks, bonds, commodities, things like that. And the other is the bottom-up work where we look at the individual stocks and help with the idea generation, look for breakouts and breakdowns and themes. And then we have a daily note to publish some signals and some market internal measures, we call them, and to really manage our call on an intra-week basis. So we're fairly prolific in terms of what we publish. And generally speaking, we'll get questions from those reports, whether they're about various securities, the individual equities, that would be one thing. Or people would ask about things like crude oil. You know, today, of course, it would be relevant for crude oil just because it's been in the news. And so I'll get questions on whatever's topical”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's no one answer to that. In fact, every meeting that I have tends to be quite different, and we can add value in a lot of ways, the most obvious way perhaps is by being more of a strategist where we're helping people understand the top-down market views where, you know, is the S&P 500 in terms of momentum and overbought oversold measures and what are levels of importance, things like that. So some clients really want to know that because obviously that top down view trickles down into their positions and they're in is quite important. And you find that even if people disagree, they're often disagreeing for a different reason. It's not because they're coming from a technical position there. It's more macro or fundamental that's leading them to disagree. So it's not as much of a debate as it would be if I was a macro strategist perhaps going into an office.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Do believe we beat out 15 other firms. And that's exciting to me. It really is a vote of confidence in what we're producing. And they were complementary of the research as being timely and actionable. You got a lot of.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So the technical analyst, which is a UK based organization, they do an annual awards event and ceremony with more than one category. So by no means am I a technical analyst of the year, but we do appreciate the honor of being labeled best institutional brokerage for equity research, which of course is technical in nature. So we, you know, Have publicized that in different ways, a press release, and it's been well received by clients, of course. That's great. And what their vote of confidence is in the written product that we produce.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Somewhat early stages in terms of what can be done with it, but certainly anything that you can program of which a lot of indicators are very programmable, I think there's a lot of upside there.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In a very favorable way, you know, with my first job out of college was actually hand charting these point figure charts that you described. So now that we have all these resources to use the upside, it's really unlimited. It's exciting in that we can do so much more in terms of our capacity to not only draw the charts and access the charts, but also to filter for different setups and look for different price patterns using some advanced software that can identify these patterns almost for you. It's really amazing what people have come up with in that regard and it can be very helpful in terms of idea generation. But also the push towards AI and more quantitative approaches to the market, they tend to have a technical element to them because a lot of them are price based. You have that input. And so I think there's a lot of upside there. I think it's still”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's right. And I think in a way, that's a good thing because you become less committed to a position if you identify a stock that you're interested in because it has a great uptrend or some renewed momentum behind it or it's exhibiting relative strength. But you've only put in 20 minutes of research on it. I think you're less likely to get married to that position. But the best types of positions, in my opinion, would have that trend falling, those gauges lined up positively, but also have the fundamental backdrop. So that to me would be an ideal setup. And I think more and more people are recognizing the value in using it as that complementary discipline as opposed to something that's designed to say, okay, well, where is this S&P 500 going to be in five years? Because that's not really to me where the value is.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, and they're still saying it, some of them. Well, I've been doing this for about 20 years, and I'd say it's come a long way, a really long way. So in terms of the level of professionalism that you see in our small industry and for good reason because people are realizing that it's helpful. And I think the push toward using it more systematically has really taken it to that next level. So the misconceptions would be that we're trying to take historical prices and always predict something, that it's overly predictive. And then you assign these silly names to various price patterns. And I think that adds to some aura of it being not as serious in terms of the analysis. But in reality, it's more surface level because it really is only price-based. And I see that as a positive because it allows you to look at anything and have an opinion on it in less than a minute, for example.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's incredibly different. Yeah. You know, when you look at it, it looks almost like a tic-tac-toe sheet with X's nose. And the most important distinction is that it doesn't really reflect time on the X axis in the same way that a typical bar chart, which would have open, high, low, closed data would. I tend to use the bar charts more now in part because it was difficult in a cell side position to explain exactly why we should care about these X's and O's, but they're really such a useful way of looking at the market is to understand the supply and demand that goes into the X's and O's that you're plotting on these grids. Great for trend following, great for understanding breakouts and breakdowns. But they omit a volume component. So no volume.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, people know it as charting, right? So you take a price, any security has a price. And what we're using is that price as a gauge of supply and demand for that security and trying to understand the trends behind that. And not only the trends, but also when they might end. So that's the design of technical analysis. We're trying to understand where there might be a shift in that supply demand relationship just using price-based analysis.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, I mean, we could talk about that. I don't think there's any real answer to that question, unfortunately, except to say that where things are self-fulfilling, great because we welcome that. And, you know, I'd say the Fibonches would be less obvious as something that would be self-fulfilling in that it's a subjective approach to drawing those ratios on the charts. Whereas something like the 200-day moving average would be more likely to have that self-”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or how it works, but it It does matter, and it can be really helpful when you don't have more traditional means of deriving support and resistance. And by that, I would mean something like a moving average, a 200-day moving average, or a peak or a trough on the charts.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“As a trading tool. Well, it's not really a trading tool, but it's a way to identify support and resistance, right? So that can be very valuable. In fact, I think if any takeaway that you have from the charts, support and resistance should be where you start because that's your gauge of risk and reward. So Fibonacci's can be very, very helpful in that regard. They're a little difficult to explain to clients, as you could imagine. Because why do they work? Yeah, why do they work?”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's exactly right. And it helps to take out some of the gray area of the market. So I really welcome those kinds of tools that are a bit more mathematically derived and less visual, but to really just enhance what you're seeing more visually because you can't take that element away, of course. But what I don't use would be I don't use many wave analysis. No Elliott wave? No Elliot wave for me. Does anyone still use Elliot Wave today? A lot of people do, in fact. And my experience is that they tend to be more bearish than not. How's that worked out, Penn?”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, and it's very specific to the individual, of course, what you have success with. And what I always recommend to people is to have a process and whatever that process may be to be consistent and somewhat systematic in the way you approach it. Because what you learn is that these indicators, while they'll fail you often, you learn where they tend to fail you. And it's all in really how you combine the indicators that you arrive at a market view.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'd say there's three classes of indicators that I use. The first would be momentum or trend following. The second would be overbought oversold, and the third would be relative strength. So to arrive at that trend exhaustion signal, I'm typically looking at the overbought oversold measures. So for me, that would be a stochastic oscillator or Tom DeMarc's suite of indicators tend to help with that as well.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Certainly. Yeah, you know, a trend in motion tends to stay in motion. And yet, where I can also add value to our clients is in understanding where there might be an inflection point or a deteriorating momentum, that type of thing. So we do spend a lot of time looking for signs of trend exhaustion.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I really do believe, as you could imagine in trend following, I think that you generally want to have your core long exposure in securities that are in long-term uptrends.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Do either international or US and take a list of 500 stocks and look at those one by one and it's a bit tedious, but that process to me helps me in my market views, but also can help us understand where there's opportunity, whether it's breakouts or breakdowns or a theme-based opportunity. So we're just looking for developments on the charts and themes.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's exactly right. I do tend to be equity centric at BTIG, we are global financial services firm, so I've branched out and looked at more than just US into really global equity markets. And I do start with the major indices, the equity indices. I look at sector benchmarks, things like that. And then, of course, anything that really influences equities, whether it's commodities, FX, things like that. So that's where I start. And I think it's an important place to start in an environment that is so sort of top-down driven, right? Where the macro influences are so important and really are the drivers of some of the trends and to understand that's very important. I mean, if you're right on the market, generally you're probably going to have a much better time at being right on any individual company. And then I do also look at the market just based on the stocks that comprise the major indices. So every week, every other week, in fact,”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. All institutional clients, and it runs a gamut in terms of hedge funds, mutual funds. Really, anyone who can benefit from this kind of analysis, which I would describe as top down in nature, but I also do a lot of bottom-up work to support that, or my version of bottom-up work is probably quite different than what we all know. So that's what I was going to do.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Many different things. It's many different things. I mean, there's obviously derivatives. We have so many different influences on volume these days. And I would argue some of them are not real volume. I mean, there's always a buyer and seller, right? But are these committed buyers? Are they, you know, real sellers? Or are they passive indexers or are they high frequency traders? So you just, you can't really understand if the volume is real these days. And then it's also been on the decline. So you have these influences that make it just that much less helpful, in my opinion. So to me, I'm very much just looking at prices and prices can be incredibly informational. And of course, those prices are measuring supply and demand. And it's just that simple.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It used to be, yeah, you'd need to see volume expanding into sustainable uptrends, and that was the stuff of the textbooks way back when. Now, of course, we've seen volume on the decline since about 2000.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's prices, right? So the market really lends us one data point and it's price. And I would argue that volume is another one, but yet has really lost some of its value in terms of having any predictive information to it.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Completely, yeah, they can be very valuable, especially for a cell discipline, which I think a lot of people are lacking.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's undeniably a great market timing element that you can derive from the charts. And I would also argue, though, that you can use them for idea generation. And it becomes a matter of preference. So I think of technical analysis as really a complementary discipline. So it's not a standalone in the same way that I don't think macroeconomics or fundamental should also be a standalone. I think together you can get a great sort of rounded view of a market or a security. And if the fundamentals help you decide what to buy and then you use technicals or charts to understand your best entries and exits, that's definitely one use.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I went straight into it. And like I said, it just seemed like it was a fate for me to do what I do now because it's such a great mesh of the mathematical side of things. And it really resonates with me in terms of analyzing a stock as a stock, not just as representative of a company. Because as we all know, you'll see a market move affect various stocks in a way that makes no sense from a fundamental perspective. So to be able to understand How that's happening, why it's happening, and really what's happening. I think that's very valuable.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is that right? And Tom is great. And I'm guessing you'll eventually ask me who my mentors are. And Tom Dorsey will come up again in our conversation. He's obviously a great person and a great technician and really helped inspire me to do it for a living.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I did. Yeah, and I had an internship while I was at college for a firm called Dorsey Wright and Associates, if you've heard of them.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, I think there's a good trend there, quite frankly. No pun intended, still early stages, right? We haven't broken out yet. But I went to University of Richmond in Virginia, a smaller school, and it just happened to have coursework in technical analysis, believe it or not, it was one of at the time, it was one of 12 universities that offered this. And now there's far more. But even still, I just got lucky in a way that they offered that coursework at the, I believe it was a 400 level finance class. at the time it was offered to graduate students so i audited it”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think it was really meant to be. Early on, I had an interest in mathematics, and that took me into a finance major in college. And fortunately, that finance major obviously exposed me to all things Wall Street, of course. But also exposed me to technical analysis, which is, of course, what I do today.”
2017-09-08 · Masters in Business · Katie Stockton Started with Technicals in College · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source