YouSaid · the spoken record

Ken Fisher

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132
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2017-04-07
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2017-04-07
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  1. “How can we don't say things like that to them? But they say, you know, how can you be doing this in our state? And then we explain it to them. And then they say, okay, but they don't know at first because they don't really know what we're doing until they know what they're doing. Why wouldn't they want to ask?”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. “Well, there's a lot of annuity salespeople that don't think it should be legal. We actually get questions periodically from state insurance commissioners that don't actually understand what we do. And they say, how can you be doing this?”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. “Again, an annuity is a specific contract, so there's not a blanket rule you can say about all annuities. But blanket rule that it can say is that we have our people who are specialized in this, so we'll look at that contract, take the customer, and call the number associated with that, go through it with the client so they really understand what the contract is. And if they want to get out, we will pay the fee. That's the penalty fee to get them out under certain circumstances, which they then amortize rolling forward against their costs of being a client with us. And I think we're the only people in the world that do that. What we do is perfectly legal, and it's legal on all 50 states.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. “Doing things backwards? I mean, people have done things backwardly forever, Barry. Come on, get these sensors to lighten up a little bit.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. “Just because I don't think they actually understand, I think what you'll see if it goes forward. Is them moving that way at first and then slowly backsliding into what they've traditionally done, which is to do a word that's otherwise profane on the radio to their customers.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. “Yes. No, no, I wouldn't go that far. It's kind of like it's got a rotted tooth dangling out the side of an otherwise empty mouth. And that rotted tooth is a claimants bar. But last year.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. “I doubt that they'll even know they haven't known in the past. Thirdly, The only enforcement is a claimant's lawyer. This is set up for Piaba, the public investors arbitration bar association, of which I don't have a problem with Piava, but the reality is it is the only enforcement. You, company X, have violated the fiduciary standard. And therefore, we are”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. “Interesting. I think it's a stupid rule with great intent. When you actually look at the devil and details, the devil and the details is that it's largely fraudulent in that you get the bice exemption, best interest. Contract exemption, which has some specific wording that you're allowed to kind of bury in a big complicated contract so the customer, you know, like sign here, sign there, you know I got your best interest at heart, but the government makes me have you do all this paperwork. So a clean”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. “And then call the insurance the number that's associated with the contract where you get a service person, not salesperson, and you say, does this mean this or does it mean that? And then they tell you what it really means. The customer is almost always appalled. And in that regard, I say almost always sold on a misleading basis. So the sales guy will say something like, well, where else can you get us guaranteed 6% return except for that's going to be a return of their capital, not a return, not an income return? It's not a return like we think of in the investing world. It's a return of their capital, which anybody can do for themselves just by taking their principal, putting it wherever they want, and taking X percent of it out. On that basis, you can have a 35% return until you run out of money. You just return your capital and spend it. There you go.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. “Annuities are a lot of different things. Annuities are a contract of some type that is very complicated Almost always there are almost never really understood by the consumer even though they often think they understand them. And they're almost always sold on a misleading basis When I say that, when you actually take the contract and go through it with the customer”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. “I am optimistic that this project will work and I'm going to invest in this project and make this improvement for the benefit of my customers and the world. And that's really a sentiment issue. It's not really interest rates or a quarter point higher, so I'm not going to move forward.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. “And yes, the reality of economic marginality is that intuitively an idiot knows that the difference between the viability of a loan for a CapEx project at today's interest rates versus a half a point higher or lower should be immaterial to whether the CapEx project should go forward or not. Because if you can't justify the return at a half a point higher or lower from where we are today, it's got to be a pretty lousy project to begin with. And the fact is that it's really more about what hasn't been marginalized is a shift in animal spirits, which is your sentiment point. And we really need to find ourselves in a CapEx sense and in all other ways moving toward that animal spirit that says, I'm not afraid Because of agency risk, which after 2009, CEOs were hunkered down for agency purposes.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. “Been tracking that. So, another way to say that, Barry, that I've become fond of is that economic marginality, as taught by Alfred Marshall, marginality has been marginalized.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. “And then everybody says, I would never do that. And then, of course, that's true for a very small percentage of the population. Most people do that.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. “1992, Georgia Walker Bush is running for re-election and he's saying the recession's over and people are saying, no, it's not. And Bill Clinton's saying it's the economy stupid. Well, in retrospect, the recession was over. That's not the way people felt and people voted with the way they felt. And also they invested the way they felt. And that's the problem. People invest the way they feel and the way they feel is almost always backward looking. And they in and out at all the wrong times. And that generates much more cost than anything else. And there's all these studies going back to things like Dal Bar that are perverse in that they show that things like load mutual funds do worse than no load mutual funds, but the people that invest in the load mutual funds do better than the people that invest in the no-load mutual funds because they feel trapped in them and they hold them much longer, which is very perverse.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. “But for your reasons, it's normal for behavioral purposes. And so in reality, what he said that was wrong is that in that period people didn't get 15% returns. They got returns that looked more like seven. And they actually switched quite a lot from this to that and chase things. And in the mid 90s and 94 and 90s,”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. “Yeah. He said, so since investors were getting 15, they didn't really care so much about relative returns because high absolute returns have made them happy. All that sounds plausible, but the reality is... That's wrong. The reality is they didn't get anything close to 15% because as all the behavioral studies show, people in and out all the wrong times and they typically get about half the return of the equity funds because they in and out them at all the wrong times.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. “And that's true. And then he said, and the average mutual fund did a couple of percent worse than the equity mutual fund, did a couple of percent worse than got about 15. He said since investors.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. “No, it's more common than not. It's what behavioralism says people do. So again, I was in the earlier segment I mentioned listening to John Bogle yesterday, and I admire the man greatly, but he said some things that are just wrong. Well, the first part of what he said here was right. He said that one of the things that slowed down the growth of passive was that the 80s and 90s were two decades back to back with 17% average annual S&P 500 returns.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. “And the fact of the matter is that the CAP has never been good at short-term timing. And therefore, that should have nothing to do with what your short term expectations are. And the reality is that, a little as I was saying before, if we could say with certainty, which of course we cannot, that the market was going to be great for the next three, four years, people would want to be in it. And the notion that I'm going to stay out of the market for three or four years while it does great or be out of the market for three or four years while it does great or suffer three or four years of terribleness, look at the people that became perma bears after 2007-9 and got totally whipsawed.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. “I think it totally ignores behavioral realities of what humans are. The way humans are is that if the next 10 years are going to be lousy, but the next five years are going to be great, people are going to lose their mind before the next five years are over and then they'll lose their mind differently five years after that. Okay.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. “And the Schiller Cape PE folk. Always talk about that it's really only intended for 10 years down the road, but then they apply it almost always to next month. And the fact of the matter is that the Schiller KP has been wrong so long, so many times that anyone should know not to use it for any kind of even intermediate-term timing. Yet people forget that.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  23. “Valuations are high because interest rates are low. Of course, important interest rate that really matters is the long rate, not the short rate so much. And people have been forecasting long rates to rise for a long time, and they've always been wrong, and they'll be wrong again this year. And, I mean, you can just kind of count on them being wrong, and every once in a while they get to be right for a little while before they end up being wrong, but the consensus has to be wrong, but that's the market pre-pricing all widely known information. That's what capital markets theory says markets do for a living. And they do it pretty well, not perfectly, but pretty well”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  24. “Yeah, the stock market is always full of what appears to be morphing into different unique things. People are almost always to myopic about the features that we confront today that always seem to be so different and so unique and so unusual and in retrospect appear not to be. When I say retrospect, far retrospect. And all of the things that you said are quite literally correct, but I don't think that has much to do with real fundamentals.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  25. “10, 12 customers, and with technical answers being only answering questions, to events that we do, which nobody else in the world would do, where we put 12, 20 clients together for a lunch and there's nobody from Fisher there at all. And we let them talk about whatever they want to talk about so they can talk about us behind their back. Because for a lot of people actually, that's the proof of the pudding is being able to talk about their advisor behind their back and know that the advisor trusts them enough to do that, therefore they have an increased trust level in the advisor.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  26. “An elaborate array across the English-speaking world of Variety But early hours of both, a couple hours of presentation of detailed information as to how we're seeing things and why we're thinking this and why we're not thinking that, et cetera, et cetera, which include an education component, along with then followed by a couple hours of Q&A, all the way down to tiny little events run by people who are, when I say tiny little 10, 12 people.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  27. “Then, when I studied IBM, I saw they never, ever had the best computer. They always had a very good computer, but they never ever had the best one. But if you took all of the pieces of what they did, sales, service, all of the pieces together they compounded to the best totality for the customer. And what I would like to think is that we from the beginning started thinking about all of those pieces. So, you know, people tend to think of us in terms of our advertising because that's what they see. That's a really wrong notion. We do a lot of advertising, that's true, but we're not actually very good at it as nearly as good as I'd like to be. On the other hand, are exceptional at service and people don't have a most people in the world don't have a clue about our service capabilities. We do all kinds of things in service. Other people don't do. And then we have a good.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  28. “When I was young, I became very enamored very early on in 1976 with New Core Steel. New Core Steel. New Core Corporation, the steel manufacturer when it was just starting into steel. Ken Iverson came by coincidence to get to know, and I was very impressed by what he was doing. And he taught me that steel production was a function of multiple compound yields. And if you could keep, you didn't have to be the best in any one of them. You had to have the best combination of all of them.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  29. “No, no, I remember that world. I mean, I was in this realm of endeavor in those days. And I remember that world at the time. And, of course, the big Kahuna and Mutual Funds at the time was Dreyfus. And yet the world was very different. And I also remember that in those days, you know, Forbes' big annual issue was its mutual fund special. And the mutual fund special had, I'm not talking about couple a hundred fund families. They had a couple hundred funds in the mutual fund special because there weren't that many mutual funds in the world the way there are today. All of this evolution is a slow evolution, and that's not abnormal.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  30. “Countered some people's perception because passive is all the rage right now. I don't think Active ever disappears. But stockpicking and active management have always been tough to do and succeed at.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  31. “Interesting fact is that when I was young a long time ago there was very little sort of data analytics. There was very computerization and all those features and how primitive that was in that world then. I was at an event yesterday and John Bogo was speaking and he was making the point that he'd actually done analytical work in 1961 showing that average on average active investors lagged the market and yet while you could do that analytical work in 1961 the public's perception of it really didn't much exist for a very very long time and he talked to some length about how agonizingly slow that was for him and yet often things that change in the world change like that where for a long time they go nowhere fast and then slowly they start getting Traction and continue. I don't think”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  32. “You know, I think stock picking was always very tough. I don't think it's any tougher than it ever was. I think there's more light being shown on that now.”

    2017-04-07 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ken Fisher (Part 2): Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source