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Larry Diamond

lines on the record: 75
first: 2019-08-07
most recent: 2019-08-07
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“And there's that, and intolerance and authoritarianism. So, I think there is rage in Russia at both the elite level and frustration and, if you will, rage that can be mobilized at the broader national level, which is why Putin continues to be. Substantially popular person, though, with much more resentment against him than is sometimes acknowledged.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, and I think the distinction you introduced and that dominated the Aspen conference is exactly the right one and it's the one that I build upon in the book Russia is a Fallen superpower And that's very hard for people in a country to go from being one of the two most important countries in the world to being a kind of afterthought or also ran. This is hard for the Russian elites who were used to thinking of themselves as a major player in the world, highly relevant, and as a domineering force certainly within their geographic space, which at a minimum would include the whole former Soviet Union, but of course Europe and the Middle East as well. And it's hard for the people who not only saw their economy shrink much more dramatically and for much longer than happened in the Great Depression in the United States, but also feel as Russians that they're no longer people in the world who are looked up to or considered”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Discord and China as the long term threat with their ambitions all over the world with using tools, using all kinds of economic empowerment of areas. Talk about what you mean by Russian rage and Chinese ambition.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We're here with Larry Diamond from Sanford University. His book is called Ill Wind, Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency. We've been talking about the move towards authoritarian populism and people feeling left out, everybody feeling sort of angry about something often related to immigration, identity politics, all kinds of things. But there's a lot of outward forces here. Let's start with Russia because I was at this security conference and it was really interesting, Russia and China. They were talking about Russians as almost as if they were mobsters, like that they had lost the Cold War from a military perspective and economic perspective. And here was a cyber attacks and these kind of things were the way in in order to try to promote these things they had lost previously. They pulled the Chinese out in a very different way and saw Russia as the short-term threat to create”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And reach out to these people and draw some of them back into the Democratic Party. There's a really good chance Donald Trump is going to be elected again in 2020.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and our segmentation into completely different media spheres, completely different social spheres, and different social media spheres. So we're not talking to one another. And I think that, you know, if I can just bring it forward to 2020, if the Democrats don't find a candidate who can transcend some of that,”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But an important reason why she lost the electoral college and narrowly lost the vote in many of these heartland states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and so on, is that there's a large segment of rural and suburban and ex-urban voters in traditional occupations, in farming, in manufacturing, and so on, and even some in the more kind of modern edge globalized corporations and elements of the economy who feel disrespected by the so-called knowledge elite, feel demeaned And feel like they don't matter anymore. They're looked down upon. And that sense is really driving a lot of this political background.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's a lot of similarity between what's going on in Europe and this constituency and this melange of frustrations in the United States. And yes, immigration is a very powerful trigger, but I think it's very important that we not ignore the deeper set of anxieties and frustrations that's driving this and that we recall how important general feelings of identity threat and identity resentment are. I think an important reason why Hillary Clinton did not win the electoral college, and I'm reluctant to say did not win the election.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's been the hottest button And it's been the most powerful trigger in both continental Europe and, of course, the United Kingdom with the Brexit movement and now the election of Boris Johnson or the rise of Boris Johnson as Trump like a figure as there is in the United Kingdom even looks a little like Donald Trump to become the new prime minister of the United Kingdom.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So there's that. This is the first part, which I think is the most critical part is this shift because of things that are reasonable to be worried about in terms of especially income inequality and feeling like your job is at risk and everywhere in the world. Probably most fueled by this immigration issue, these immigration problems that are throughout the world.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“These parties are gaining and they are playing on other dimensions of the unease that important segments of the democratic public have about inequality, about the failure to keep up with globalization, about feeling like they're losing out in this global economic competition, worrying about whether they're going to have jobs. Many of the things that drove support for Donald Trump in the United States, men feeling like they're losing their status in the sexual revolution and the gender revolution of women's advancement, gay rights, minority rights, you know, everything, a lot of established older and more rural populations Are having trouble assimilating all this and feel like they are the last minority left that isn't being listened to or isn't being given some help in this competition”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“With Marine Le Pen and the National Front in France, with Matteo Salvini and his remarkable electoral success in the last Italian elections and now in the European Parliament elections is probably the most dynamic and influential party in Italy. And again, he's not a fascist, but he's had awfully admiring things to say about Benito Mussolini, and he hates immigrants. And you look at one European country after another, and you see Partly as a backlash against what they see as a crisis of immigration. And there certainly were elements of a crisis with the flood of Syrian refugee immigration in 2016.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That I think it's an overstatement to say it's a neo-Nazi party, but there are neo-Nazis in it. It's called Alternative for Germany. And in the last German elections, they became the third largest party. So we've seen.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We've seen a rise in a number of European democracies. Even Sweden, we think of Sweden as such a liberal democracy, but the third largest political party in Sweden now is something called the Sweden Democrats, which is a right-wing anti-immigrant nativist party that says, please don't bring your Muslims and your, if I can put it crudely, your brown-skinned people here to white Sweden. We know have political party in Germany.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In people thinking that it's just one more increment, there's nothing special about it. And of course complacency in the Republican Party just rolling back and letting this happen.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The third ill wind is China emerging as a superpower wanting to control the narrative and co-op people and preempt any criticism of it. And the fourth is the growing polarization and dysfunction of democracy in the United States and then the new context of an authoritarian personality in the White House and complacency everywhere. In low voter turnout.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, there are four ill wins that have been blowing now and that I think are accelerating. The first is the general march of authoritarian populism in Europe and now. Unfortunately, the United States, under pressure from globalization, the cynicism promoting features of social media. Second is Russia trying to make hay of this and intervene in the politics of European democracies, intervene in the politics. Promote confusion, promote division. We know they did this in 2016, and even try and tip the election to their favorite candidates, in this case Donald Trump.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, exactly. And so when you begin to see this, your book is called Ill Wins, and you want to say saving democracy, let's go through, why did you call that? I just want to get a sense of the idea is these are blowing in and it's bad news.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“100%. I always say someone was talking about internet and dictators don't like the internet. I go, dictators love the internet. What are you talking about? You can control it in ways that are, and you can use it and use it in ways.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That was the idea at the beginning. Yeah, to enable change and really to promote liberation all the way from the empowerment of grassroots action in the United States, in the Howard Dean and Barack Obama campaigns, the mobilization of protest and political innovation in both advanced and emerging democracies and many of the new people power movements, including the Arab Spring movements, all of which were using digital tools to mobilize protest. And what's happened, and I think has greatly deepened the retreat of freedom in the world and the downward trend has been authoritarian regimes figuring out the code, if you will. And turning these tools in on themselves into mechanisms of surveillance and repression.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That almost brought about a Second Great Depression. And just the acceleration of globalization and lots of people feeling like they were falling behind. So for the last 12 years, freedom has been trending in a downward direction I do want to say something, Kara, about the technology aspect, because I founded a program at Stanford called Liberation Technology. Study what were very exhilarating uses. Technology to empower people”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, which and all of that, of course, is unraveling now under a real authoritarian personality, Rodrigo Duterte as president. And then, of course, the big bang of democratic expansion after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Soviet Union. And let's not ignore the exhilarating changes in sub-Saharan Africa and South Africa and other parts of the African continent. And it all looked like freedom was just going to continue to be on the march. But this trend of democratic expansion began to turn down and first stagnate and then accelerate in its retreat after the US invasion of Iraq, the U.S. induced financial crisis.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So democracy was on the rise For great stretch, a Really 40 year period beginning in the mid 1970s when it was very gradual with the re-democratization in Latin America and Southern Europe. And then you remember the People Power Revolution in the Philippines in 1986.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, what's interesting is, you know, after the Soviet Union fell, everyone thought the very opposite would take effect. And it actually happened right around the same time the internet grew. It was all around the same time frame. Because I remember traveling to the former Soviet Union then and using very early digital communications tools. And that was where they began to spread. I want to link those to, I talk more about technology, but can you sort of set the table after that happened? I think most people felt that democracy was on the rise. You had Prague Spring, you had all these different governments that were now out from under an authoritarian regime. You had China opening up.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I've been looking at how democracies struggle to emerge and improve and avoid failing in Africa, Asia, to some extent Latin America. I spent three months in Iraq after the invasion trying to do what could be done to help the Iraqi people in that ill-fated situation. I never dreamed I'd have to worry about defending liberal democracy in the United States or that it would be at risk within the European Union. But the growing evidence that that was the case and that we were descending into something Very deep and dangerous in terms of the trends for freedom in the world. That's what motivated me to write the book.”
2019-08-07 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT