YouSaid · the spoken record

Liv Boeree

lines on the record: 222
first: 2022-08-24
most recent: 2022-08-24
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“They've really figured it out. It's one of the most elegantly designed games I've ever seen. It's incredibly complex and yet being, again, it walks that line between complexity and simplicity in this really, really great way. And they use pretty colors that hack the dopamine reward circuits in our brains very well.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Think there's something that really wants us to win. And it just you just have to be like, just like, okay, now I sound really crazy, but like open your heart to it a little bit. It will give you the sort of breathing room with which to marinate on the solutions. We are the ones who have to come up with the solutions. We can use hashtag positivity, there's value in that.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They can smell that there's, you know, I think there's a reason people are thinking about this stuff a lot is because the probability, you know, it's increased in probability over certainly over the last few years. Trajectories have not gone favorably, let's put it since 2010. It's right, I think, for people to be thinking about it. But that's where they're like, I think whether it's a useful fiction or whether it's actually true or whatever you want to call it, I think having this faith. This is where faith is valuable because it gives you at least this like anchor of hope. And I'm not just saying it to like trick myself. Like I do truly, I do think there's something out there that wants us to win.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, and I very much agree with that. And even I have a slight like feeling from the amount of time we spent in this conversation talking about this because it's like, you know, is this even a net positive if it's like making everyone feel in some ways like making people imagine these bad scenarios can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. But at the same time, that's weighed off with at least making people aware of the problem and gets them thinking. And I think particularly, you know, the reason why I want to talk about this to your audience is that on average they're the type of people who gravitate towards these kind of topics because they're intellectually curious and they can sort of sense that there's trouble brewing.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, buying time is a good thing, definitely. Anything that slows everything down, we just, everyone needs to chill out. We've got millennia to figure this out At least, well, it depends again. Some people think that we can't even make it through the next few decades without having some kind of omni-wise coordination mechanism. And there's also an argument to that. Yeah, I don't know.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Those goals include keeping humanity alive, right? But Bostrom says that actually those two things, superintelligence and super wisdom aren't necessarily correlated. They're actually kind of orthogonal things. And how do we make it so that they are correlated? How do we guarantee it? Because we need it to be guaranteed, really, to know that we're doing the thing safely.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. And importantly, they're also game theorists. And because this is ultimately a game theory problem, the thing, this mollock mechanism and like, you know, how do we voice arms race scenarios? You need people who aren't naive to be thinking about this. And again, luckily, there's a lot of smart, non-naive game theorists within that group. Yes, I'm concerned about it. And I think it's, again, a thing that we need people to be thinking about in terms of like how do we create, how do we mitigate the arms race dynamics and how do we solve the thing of, it's got Boston calls it the orthogonality problem whereby because obviously there's a chance you know that the belief the hope is is that you build something that's super intelligent and by definition of being super intelligent it will also become super wise and have the wisdom to know what the right goals are and hopefully”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“With no clean solution. And at the same time, I know at least some of the folks at DeepMind and they're incredible and they're thinking about this. They're very aware of this problem. And they're like, you know, I think some of the smartest people on Earth.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But the flip side to that is unfortunately now that there's multiple actors trying to build AI, this was fine 10 years ago when it was just deep mind, but then other companies started up and now it created a race dynamic. Now it's like the whole thing is at the same problem. It's like whichever company is the one that optimizes for speed at the cost of safety will get the competitive advantage. And so it will be the more likely the ones to build the AGI, you know, and that's the same cycle that you're in. And there's no clear solution to that because you can't just go like slapping. If you go and try and like stop all the different companies, then it will, you know, the good ones will stop because they're the ones within the West's reach. But then that leaves all the other ones to continue. And then they're even more likely. So it's like it's a very difficult problem.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, exactly. I'm like, wow, we can unlock the mysteries of the universe, you know, escape the game. And this, you know, because I spend all my time thinking about these molecule problems that, you know, what is the solution to them in some ways you need this omnibenevolent omniscient omnibise. Coordination mechanism that can make us all not do the molechy thing or provide the infrastructure or redesign the system so that it's not vulnerable to this molecule process and in some ways that's the strongest argument to me for like the race to build AGI is that maybe you know we can't survive without it”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Have that beamed to, you know, so from like someone like Fauci or Francis' perspective, that's what they get because they're getting the same social media stuff as us. They're getting the same media reports. I mean, they might get some more information, but they too are going to get the nuts portrayed to them. So they probably have a misrepresentation of what the actual public's intelligence is.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To be fair, the thing that's, what's it called? Heard the phrase today at Social media does that. So you've got like nitpicking, nutpicking is where the craziest, stupidest, you know, if you have a group of people, let's call it, you know, let's say people who are vaccine, I don't like the term anti-vaccine, people who are vaccine hesitant. Vaccine speculative, you know. What social media did or the media or anyone, you know, their opponents would do is pick the craziest example. So the ones who are like, you know, I think I need to inject myself with like... Motor oil at my ass or something. Select the craziest ones and then.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Like coming clean on the, you know, it's understandable to have fucked up during this pandemic. Like, I won't expect any government to handle it well because it was so difficult, like so many moving pieces, so much like lack of information, and so on. But the step to rebuilding trust is to go, okay, look, we're doing a scrutiny of where we went wrong. And for my part, I did this wrong in this part. That would be huge.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, he still has a chance to do that, I think. I mean, yeah, sure. I don't think I doubt he's listening, but if he is, like, hey, I think, you know, I don't think he's irredeemable by any means. I think there's, you know, I don't know, I don't have an opinion whether there was arrogance or there or not. Just know that I think.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Like, if he could just come out and be like, okay, look, guys, hands up. We didn't handle this as well as we could have. These are all the things I would have done differently in hindsight. I apologize for this and this and this and this. That would go so far. And maybe I'm being naive, who knows, maybe this would backfire, but I don't think it would. To someone like me even, because I've like, I've lost trust in a lot of these things. But I'm fortunate that at least no people who I can go to who I think are good, like have good epistemics on this stuff. But, you know, if they could sort of put their hands on me, go, okay, these are the spots where we screwed up this, this, this was our reasons. Yeah, we actually told a little white lie here. We did it for this reason. We're really sorry, where they just did the radical honesty thing. The radical transparency thing. That would go so far to rebuilding public trust. And I think that's what needs to happen.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But the cost of lying to the public when that then comes out, people aren't as stupid as they think they are. And that's, I think, where this distrust of experts has largely come from. A, they've lied to people overtly, but B, people have been treated like idiots. Now, that's not to say that there aren't a lot of stupid people who have a lot of wacky ideas around COVID and all sorts of things, but if you treat the general public like children, they're going to see that. They're going to notice that. And that is going to absolutely decimate the trust in the public institutions that we depend upon. And honestly, the best thing that could happen, I wish, like if Fauci or, you know, and these other leaders who, I mean, God, I would, I can't imagine how nightmare his job has been over the last few years. Hell on earth. So, you know, I, you know, I have a lot of sort of sympathy for the position he's been in.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because that's the thing that were certain actions made by certain health public figures where they told, they very knowingly told it was a white lie, it was intended in the best possible way, such as early on when there was clearly a shortage of masks. And so they said to the public, oh, don't get masks, there's no evidence that they work, don't get them, they don't work. In fact, it might even make it worse. You might even spread it more. Like that, that was the real stinker. Yeah, no, no. Let's know how to do it properly, you're going to make that you're going to get sicker or you're more likely to get the virus, which is just absolute crap. And they put that out there. And it's pretty clear the reason why they did that was because there was actually a shortage of masks and they really needed it for health workers, which makes sense.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, it's all about cost benefits, right? There are some scenarios where I could imagine the cost benefit of a gain of function research is very, very clear, where you've evaluated all the potential risks factored in the probability that things can go wrong and like, you know, not only known unknowns, but unknown unknowns as well, tried to quantify that. And then even then, it's like orders of magnitude better to do that. I'm behind that argument, but the point is that there's this naivety that's preventing people from even doing the cost benefit properly on a lot of the things. Because, you know, I get it. The science community, again, I don't want to bucket the science community, but like some people within the science community just think that everyone's good and everyone just cares about getting knowledge and doing the best for the world. And unfortunately, that's not the case. I wish we lived in that world, but we don't.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, I would agree in principle with pertaining to this particular plan of like. With the thing I described, this deep vision thing, where at least then that would maybe make sense for steps one and step two of like getting the information, but then why would you release it, the information to your literal enemies? That doesn't fit at all in that perfective of trying to be ahead of them. You're literally handing them the weapon.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Actually, overly naive about the interactions of humanity. And well, like there are bad actors who will use this for bad things. Because not only will it, if you publish this information, even if a bad actor couldn't physically make it themselves, which given, you know, in 10 years time, like the technologies are getting cheaper and easier to use. But even if they couldn't make it, they could now bluff it. What would you do if there's some deadly new virus that we were published on the internet in terms of its building blocks? Kim Jong-un could be like, hey, if you don't, you know, let me build my nuclear weapons, I'm going to release this. I've managed to build it. Well, now he's actually got credible bluff. We don't know, you know. And so that's, it's just like handing the keys, it's handing weapons of mass destruction to people.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Bringing the risk of these pathogens of getting leaked, but you're literally handing it out to every bad actor on Earth who would be doing cartwheels. And I'm talking about like Kim Jong-un, ISIS, people who want, the rest of the world is their enemy. And in some cases, they think that killing it themselves is a noble cause. And you're literally giving them the building blocks of how to do this. It's the most batchit I'd have ever heard. Like on expectation, it's probably like minus EV of like multiple billions of lives if they actually succeeded in doing this. Certainly in the tens or hundreds of millions. So the cost benefit is so unbelievably it makes no sense. And I was trying to like trying to wrap my head around like why what's going wrong in people's minds to think that this is a good idea. And it's not that it's malice or anything like that. I think it's that people don't, you know, the proponents, they don't, it's...”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Pocket of the scientific community thinks is a good idea. And I think on expectation, and their argument is that, oh, this is good because it might bias some time to develop vaccines, which, okay, sure, maybe would have made sense prior to mRNA technology, but mRNA, we can develop a vaccine now when we find a new pathogen within a couple of days. Now then there's all the trials and so on. Those trials would have to happen anyway in the case of a brand new thing. So you're saving maybe a couple of days. So that's the upside. Meanwhile, the downside is you're not only giving...”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Of potential pandemic lethality. And then the piece of resistance on this plan is to then publish that information freely on the internet about all these pathogens, including their genome, which is literally like the building instructions of how to do them on the internet. And this is something that genuinely”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And the idea is to go out into the wilds. And we're not talking about us like within cities, like deep into caves that people don't go to, deep into the Arctic wherever, scour the earth for whatever the most dangerous possible pathogens could be that they can find. And then not only do, you know, try and find these, bring samples of them back to laboratories. And again, whether you think COVID was a lab leak or not, I'm not going to get into that, but we have historically had so many as a civilization. We've had so many lab leaks from even like the highest level security things. People should go and just read it. It's like a comedy show of just how many they are, how leaky these labs are, even when they do their best efforts. So bring these things then back to civilization. That's step one of the badness. The next step would be to then categorize them, do experiments on them and categorize them by their level.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Original allocation in this new budget for future pandemic preparedness was 60 billion, so tiny proportion of it, that proceeded to get whittled down to like 30 billion to 15 billion, all the way down to 2 billion out of multiple trillions. For a thing that has just cost us multiple trillions, we've just finished. We're not even really out of it. It's basically got whittled down to nothing because for some reason people think that all right, we've got the pandemic out the way. That was that one. And the reason for that is that people are, and I say this with all due respect to a lot of the science community, but there's an immense amount of naivety about they think that nature is the main risk moving forward. And it really isn't. And I think nothing demonstrates this more than this project that I was just reading about that's sort of being proposed right now called Deep Vision.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, and all those poor people that died, it was still like child's play compared to what a future one could be in terms of fatality rate. And so you'd think that we would then be much more robust in our pandemic preparedness. And meanwhile, the budget in the last two years for the US, sorry, they just did this, I can't remember the name of what the actual budget was, but it was like a multi-trillion dollar budget that the US just set aside. And originally in that, you know, considering that COVID cost multiple trillions to the economy, right?”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So many. So, of course, we have natural risks from natural pandemics, naturally occurring viruses or pathogens. And then also as time and technology goes on and technology becomes more and more democratized into the hands of more and more people, the risk of synthetic pathogens. And whether or not you fall into the camp of COVID was a gain of function accidental lab leak or whether it was purely naturally occurring. Either way, We are facing a future where synthetic pathogens or like human meddled with pathogens either accidentally get out or get into the hands of bad actors who, you know, whether they're omnicidal maniacs, either way. And so that means we need more robustness for that. And you would think that us having this nice little dry run, which is what...”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The one that's on my mind the most, mostly because I think it's the one where we have actually a real chance to move the needle on in a positive direction, or more specifically stop some really bad things from happening, really dumb avoidable things is biorerisks.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We have to just somehow get the meme into everyone's heads that the real enemy is war itself. That's the enemy we need to defeat. Don't mean to say that there isn't justification for small local scenarios adversarial conflicts. If you have a leader who is starting wars, they're on the side of Team War, basically. It's not that they're on the side of team country, whatever that country is. It's they're on the side of Team War. So that needs to be stopped and put down. But you also have to find ways that you're Corrective measure doesn't actually then end up being co-opted by the war machine and creating greater war. Again, the playing field is finite. The scale of conflict is now getting so big. The weapons that can be used are so mass destructive that we can't afford another giant conflict. We won't make it.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Things always, of course, though, like, you know, which. How zoomed out of a view do you want to take? Because, yeah, you describe it as like an anti molloch thing happened within Ukraine because it brought the Ukrainian people together in order to fight a common enemy. Maybe that's a good thing. Maybe that's a bad thing. In the end, we don't know how this is all going to play out, right? But if you zoom it out from a level, you know, on a global level, they're coming together to fight. That could make a conflict larger. You know what I mean? I don't know what the right answer is here. It seems like a good thing that they came together. But we don't know how this is all going to play out. If this all turns into nuclear war, we'll be like, okay, that was a bad”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Overall, people have too many biases. People are overly biased against trying to do like a quantified cost-benefit analysis on really tough life decisions. They're like, oh, just go with your gut. It's like, well, sure, but guts, our intuitions are best suited for things that we've got tons of experience in, then we can really trust on it. If it's a decision we've made many times. But if it's like, should I marry this person or should I buy this house over that house? You only make those decisions a couple of times in your life, maybe.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's interesting sometimes to poke holes in the probe at these things that we consider so sacred that we can't try to quantify them, which is interesting because that's in tension with like the idea of what we just talked about with beauty and like what makes something beautiful the fact that you can't measure everything about it and perhaps something shouldn't be tried to you know maybe it's wrong to completely try and value the you know put a utilitarian frame of measuring the the utility of a tree in its entirety. I don't know maybe we should maybe we shouldn't i'm ambivalent on that but”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. It was a deep, and it was, yeah, it was just like this moment of reflection. I'm like, oh, wow, I actually have to think through this quite critically and so on. And it's also what was interesting was I got to check in with what my desires were. So there was one thing of like what my actual prediction is, but what are my desires and could these desires be affecting my predictions and so on? And that's a method of rationality. And I personally don't think it loses anything in terms of, it didn't take any of the magic away from our relationship. Quite the opposite. Like it brought us closer together because it was like we did this weird fun thing that I appreciate a lot of people find quite strange. And I think it was somewhat unique in our relationship that both of us are very, you know, we both love numbers. We both love statistics. We both poker players. So this was kind of like our safe space anyway. For others, one partner might not like that kind of stuff at all, in which case it's not a good exercise to do. I don't recommend it to everybody. But I do think there's...”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, so that, and this comes back to this idea of useful fictions, right? And I agree. I don't think there's a clear answer to this, and I think it's actually quite subjective. Some people just works better for than others. Know to be clear, Igor and I weren't doing this formal prediction in it. We did it with very much tongue in cheek. It wasn't like we were going to make, I don't think it even would have drastically changed what we decided to do even. We kind of just did it more as a fun exercise.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, but as long as you're aware of that and you're honest with yourself, and you're honest with the other person, say, look, I have really wide error bars on this for the following reasons. That's okay. I still think it's better than not trying to quantify it at all if you're trying to make really major irreversible life decisions”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It definitely would have, if his had been consistently lower than mine, that would have rattled me for sure. Whereas if it had been the other way around, I think he's just kind of like a water off the duck's back type of guy. It'd be like, okay, well, all right, we'll figure this out”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So just give your real percentage. And I think mine was like 75%. And then we showed each other, and luckily we were fairly well aligned. But honestly, and if we weren't”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, your own foresight, essentially, in a quantified way. So I both wrote down our percentages and we also did a one-year prediction and a 10-year one as well. So we got percentages for all three. And then we showed each other. And I remember having this moment of like, ooh, because for the 10-year one, I was like, ooh, well, I mean, I love them a lot, but like a lot can happen in 10 years, you know. And we've only been together for, you know, so I was like, I think it's over 50%, but it's definitely not 90%. And I remember like wrestling. I was like, oh, but I don't want him to be hurt. I don't want him to, you know, I don't want to give a number lower than his. And I remember thinking, I was like, uh-uh, don't game it. This is an exercise in radical honesty.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so, you know, we'd been about together for a year and things were good and we were having this hard conversation. And then he was like, well, okay, what's the likelihood that we're going to be together in three years then? Because I think it was roughly a three-year time horizon. And I was like, oh, oh, interesting. And then we're like, actually, wait, before you say it out loud, let's both write down our predictions formally. Because we'd been like, we were just getting into effective altruism and rationality at the time, which is all about making formal predictions as a means of measuring your own.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Was already very high, and then we'd been together for a year, and it had been pretty golden and wonderful. So there was a lot of foundation already where we felt very comfortable having a lot of frank conversations. But Igor's MO has always been much more than mine. He was always from the outset, like just in a relationship, radical transparency and honesty is the way because the truth is the truth whether you want to hide it or not. It'll come out eventually and if you aren't able to accept difficult things yourself, then how could you possibly expect to be like the most integral version, you can't, the relationship needs this bedrock of honesty as a foundation more than anything.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, so our relationship was very. Well, first of all, we were good friends for a couple of years before we even, you know, got romantic. When we did get romantic, it was very clear that this was a big deal. It wasn't just like another thing.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it was about a year into our relationship and we were having a fairly heavy conversation because we were trying to figure out whether or not I was going to sell my apartment. He had already moved in, but I think we were just figuring out what our long-term plans would be. Should we buy a place together, et cetera?”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, like it's. It's a really good suggestion by you actually to figure out how we can optimize virality for positive sum.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Molloch hates collaboration and coordination and people working together. And that's again, like the internet started out as that. And it could have been that, but because of the way it was sort of structured in terms of very lofty ideal, they wanted everything to be open source. Open source and also free, but they needed to find a way to pay the bills anyway because they were still building this on top of our old economics system. And so the way they did that was through third-party advertisement. But that meant that things were very decoupled. You know, you've got this third-party interest, which means that you're then like people having to optimize for that. And that is, you know, the actual consumer is actually the product, not the person you're making the thing for. In the end, you start making the thing for the advertiser. And so that's why it then like breaks down.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That said, the current structure, yes, is the current structure means that virality is optimized towards Moloch. That doesn't mean there aren't exceptions. Sometimes positive stories do go viral. And I think we should study them. I think there should be a whole field of study into understanding identifying memes that above a certain threshold of the population agree is a positive, happy bringing people together meme, the kind of thing that brings families together that would normally argue about culture wars stuff at the table, at the dinner table, identify those memes and figure out what was the ingredient that made them spread that day.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And ultimately, bring people together as opposed to tear them apart. I deeply want that to be true, and I very much agree with you that people at their core are on average good as opposed to care for each other as opposed to not. I think it's actually a very small percentage of people are truly like wanting to do just like destructive malicious things. Most people are just trying to win their own little game. And they don't mean to be, you know, they're just stuck in this badly designed system.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Least, if like it was on a subscription model, then it's now not optimizing impressions because basically what it wants is for people to keep coming back as often as possible. That's how they get paid, right? Every time an ad gets shown to someone and the way is to get people constantly refreshing their feed. So you're trying to encourage addictive behaviors. Whereas if someone if they moved on to at least a subscription model Getting the money either way, whether someone comes back to the site once a month or 500 times a month. They get the same amount of money. So now that takes away that incentive, you know, to use technology to build, to design an algorithm that is maximally addictive. That would be one way, for example.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Twitter is where you have this amalgam of human culture and then this terribly designed algorithm that amplifies the craziest people and the angriest, most divisive takes and amplifies them. And then the media, the mainstream media, because all the journalists are also on Twitter, they then are informed by that. And so they draw out the stories they can from this already like very boiling lava of rage and then spread that to their millions and millions of people who aren't even on Twitter. And so I honestly, I think if I could press a button, turn them off, I probably would at this point because I just don't see a way it being compatible with healthiness, but that's not going to happen. And so at least one way to like stem the tide and make it less moleculy would be to Change.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, how they can, like, if we were to rewrite, is there a way to rewrite the Twitter algorithm so that it stops being the like? The fertile breeding ground of the culture wars because that's really what it is. It's, I mean, maybe I'm giving it Twitter too much power, but just the more I looked into it and I had conversations with Tristan Harris from the Center of Humane Technology, and he explained it as...”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Take, you know, what is social media doing? It's trying to encapsulate the human experience and put it into digital form and commodify it to an extent. So you do that. You compress people down into these narrow things. And that's why I think it's kind of ultimately fundamentally incompatible with at least my definition of beauty.”
2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source