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Lukas Czinger

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2026-05-23
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2026-05-23
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  1. That's how they get you with these pod systems. The pod system is cheap up front and then they get you on the razor blades. Just much better doing it this way and having better tasting coffee. Thanks for coming to my TED talk. Let's get to the weekend. Bye-bye, everybody.

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. Problem is, you have to pay for the machines up front. I think they're doing like a subscription coffee thing or you can. This is the perfect example of if you can't afford the $600, $700 espresso super automatic demi ahead of time, this is where using a firm on one of those services to pay for it over two years. If they don't charge, I don't know if they do have that offer. But that would be better.

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. Terrible flavor. You'd have two cups a day, you're at two bucks. That's $700 a year. You have a couple people over. Now you're well over $1,000 a year over three years. You're at $3,000. You buy one of these, you buy whole beans on a subscription. You're going to be. Way in the black with much better tasting coffee. That's my best

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. The stemi espresso one touch is now half the size and half the price. So you can get into this thing for like 600 bucks or something 700 bucks. Well, and you think about espresso-based beverages, you can make a long. Americano, Olongo, Espresso, then you do the froth. I was trying to explain this to somebody, I think it was one of the staff here I have at the ranch. And I was trying to explain to her how much the pods were costing her. I was like, how much of these pods cost? Like the pods, you probably use a pod system at home. Oh, no.

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. And I've had a chara cafe for a long time. I love a one touch espresso machine, had done the Jora before that. But they came out with this great one called the Demi, D-E-M-I, incredible for making an espresso. And they took the... Stick for frothing milk out of it because there are frothers now that are so much better. So I have a smag SME frother for milk makes perfect froth milk cold hot and you can pick how much froth you want to have on if you're making a flat white you want less if you're making a cappuccino you want more etc and so they're coming out they have the demi and then they have this arrow milk froth are coming out that combination is absolutely fantastic because you separate the two and it just

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. And there's the taking of the picture. So I'm thinking of maybe just bringing a camera with me and just getting into taking pictures with a digital SLR and enjoying it, you know, kind of situation. For me, I wanted to share.

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. I wanted to share something I have to do something about my addiction to my smartphone and social media. I'm thinking for my six weeks when I'm traveling this summer of deleting all the social media off my phone and then maybe going to an outbound only where I make videos, send them to you and the team. And you guys make content out of them and post on my accounts. And that's it. Yeah. And I'm just off of social media because I am doom scrolling every night for an hour. I'm addicted to TikTok, Instagram, X. Obviously, you see me on these platforms. Yeah, I'm addicted to it all because my job is to talk about the news. And it's like I have to be involved in it, but there's something lost. And I want to read a couple more books and just slow my brain down a bit. So I need to come up with a. System and I need to be vigilant.

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. I just love to double down on the dumplings and just, yeah, man, it saves time. You get in and out of things. So I am for convenience and efficiency.

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. Another set of dumplings, you know, like you got three daughters, and like the dumplings come, and there's like five of them. And all of a sudden, it's a civil war. You're going to need to get their second.

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. And tell him what the That was pillagers and It's, I'm torn about it. I love the fact that we're not just wasting these printouts constantly. I love the toast system, which allows you to just order without waiting for a person. I love the fact that I don't have to flag a waiter down when I'm with my kids and somebody wants a

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. And then hands it to his assistant to mail to the person. So it's like almost like he's turned this into a way to curate his network or whatever. And then whenever he gets deposed or there's like discovery, they're like Donald Trump has never sent an email. So it's almost like a mob boss situation where there's no paper trail of anything

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. I mean, I'm sure there's the people who work at his companies have emails and they're feverishly using them. It's probably a situation like Donald Trump. Donald Trump gets printouts of everything. There's a person who travels with him. You can go look it up. And she has a portable printer with her. And she just sits there next to him wherever he is. And according to the public reports of this, you'll find it on social media. She's just printing out his emails, printing out press clips. Then he'll take the press clip and say, congratulations, Brett Retner, and sign it.

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. Yeah, I mean, I don't know how he does it. If you're going to dinner and you got to take a picture of a QR code to order from the menu, I mean, what are you supposed to do here? It's like, I don't, he must have his spouse or.

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. Majority of the time because you need to get returns and venture so hard that you don't want to waste a bullet. Like I, if I had family members come to me or friends of family members, which happens sometimes, I say the same thing to them. Like, we invest in one out of 150 companies that apply 200. You know, the chances of you beating out all those other companies is extremely low statistically. But if you want to go through the process, that's fine. And then if I were to invest, you know, and there's some conflict or whatever, I have to get like a waiver from like my LPAC, my committee that, you know, represents the LPs. It's just not worth it. The only thing I might do, let's say I had a cousin with a great idea, I would probably forward them to friends of mine and say, hey, you might want to take a meeting, so a good idea.

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. No, real VCs have to answer to their LPs. Any conflict of interest could open them up to lawsuits and things like that. So there's pretty deep diligence that's done on these. You do have a portfolio and you do expect a certain number to go to zero. So it's not like you're going to be super obsessive. However, I do think, yeah, you're not placing bets with tens of millions of dollars based on Nepo babies.

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  16. Podcaster licenses. Yeah, but Anyway, it's going to happen on a state by state level. And so as much as people want to like pretend it's not going to, I'm not advocating for one or the other. I'm just saying the game on the field is going to be. Do we have cataclysmic or accelerated or violent job loss? And that's what everybody's fear is. The fear is just job loss. If you take job loss out, if people were getting more jobs because of this, if they got higher paying jobs because of this, if inflation went down because of this, if food costs went down, if construction costs go down, if education costs go down, and they should, then people will feel good about this technology. It's just going to be a crazy five to ten years of transition where people lose a lot of jobs. Let's keep moving through the docket. Anything else going up forever?

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  17. We say, hey, every time a robot goes into a full time And the pace of deployment is going to provide some soft landing for those employees. Either the government handles it, the private market. Because I think there's going to be, if we don't start this dialogue about what happens when every Uber driver, every truck driver, every Door Dasher loses their job. If we don't have that discussion now, it could lead to riots in the street, civil war type stuff. Which, by the way, I'm sounding like a lunatic, just go to Europe and look at the riots in Greece, Spain, Egypt. They all happen when there's 20, 25% unemployment in certain demographics, typically young men. So we should just have that first principles discussion about that pace of deployment, by the way. This isn't my idea. This is an idea that Bernie Sanders, the Chinese government, the CCP, they're all floating this idea of maybe there'll be robo taxi or truck driver, DoorDasher

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  18. Have a really simple one that I think is happening and that we can find some common ground on, which is in the case that robots, whether it's self-driving or the figure robot sorting packages in Amazon.

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. The second is self regulation. The third is obviously Regulation at the state and or federal level. All three of these things will be pursued. I think the one that makes you.

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. Insane That's a good point in relation to that. There's three ways that this could be regulated. One is in the rearview mirror after bad things happens, the companies get sued.

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  21. And he loves big tech, and he loves super packs. He wants to get hundreds of millions of dollars into these super packs. He's pro crypto. The train stuff to station. It's not going to be America first. It's going to be big tech and the military industrial concept first. It's just the nature of Trump's decision-making.

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  22. Is it just going to create a permanent underclass that always loses their jobs? This is what Bannon, Fuentes, Tucker, they've all departed. Megan Kelly, they're all leaving the Trump camp or trying to put pressure on the Trump camp to stop kowtowing in their minds to big tech, to oligarchs. Trump loves money. He loves billionaires. He loves super packs. Good luck with that. He's shown very clearly. He loves the military industrial complex. He's getting them a trillion and a half more dollars to build weapons. He started the war with Iran.

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  23. Polarization of wealth. Okay, we now have a couple of trillion dollar companies with these AI tokens. We have jobs being retired at an alarming rate. And is every truck driver going to lose their job? Is every cab driver going to lose their job? Is every delivery driver going to lose their job? Every factory worker, everybody at Amazon going to lose their job? The answer is yes. All those jobs are going to go away or the majority of them will go away and those people will have to be redeployed in some intelligent fashion. You combine that with, hey, the intelligence wants this. And America first, this is really about the Civil War inside of the Trump administration, the Republican Party. The Civil War in that party is people's jobs, America first, and these tech oligarchs, as they call them, are they running away with this and stealing everybody's money, quote unquote.

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  24. All that kind of dark stuff. I'll just leave it there so we don't get tagged here on YouTube, but any kind of dark stuff there, just create your own rating system that says, hey, this model is not intended for people under the age of 18. It has characters doing sexual stuff. This one's PG-13. This one we tested it for giving information on how to recreate a COVID virus that's 10 times worse. And that would basically, I think, solve the same problem. That's what the industry should do to get ahead of this. And we don't need to regulate them, I think, at this point in time. I think this is political theater because... Right now, AI is extremely unpopular and it dovetails with the story we talked about earlier, job loss People losing their cars. These are all becoming one issue

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  25. When I was a child in the 70s, 80s, and into the 90s, so that parents had some way of doing it. That's what needs to happen in our industry. A very simple solution is this. Self-regulating. Anybody doing frontier models says we have a group, we have an operating group. What this operating group does is we stress test each of these models through a dynamic set of tests that's always involving. We try to have it hack into people's personal accounts. We try to have it build a bioweapon. We try to have it do some kind of social media misinformation campaign. And we see how resilient they are and what alarms doing any kind of revenge or

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  26. And the law is something. So, just from first principles, what were we trying to do with this executive order? And what are we trying to do in terms of regulating AI? Are we just trying to get an early preview of these models? And if that is the case, there's nothing that says the industry can't self-regulate, like the MPAA, the motion picture association of America, came up with a rating system in order, and as did the record industry, in order to make parents and adults feel comfortable with, hey, this movie is Caligula. It's Conan the Barbarian. It's Indiana Jones in the Temple Doom. I remember all these movies.

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  27. The concept of an executive order doesn't actually accomplish all that much. It's kind of like, here's what the chief executive, the president of the United States, this is what they want to occur, and then it has to become either a law or be executed on in some way.

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  28. Yeah, well, Sachs wasn't on all in. I don't know the details of it, so I don't have any inside information. If I did, I wouldn't share the inside information anyway. But by the time you're listening to this, there'll be an all-in episode with Gavin Baker, not Sachs. So one might infer from that that he was busy this week working on this. You can make whatever inference you want. I can't confirm, deny, or whatever, because I don't know. What are we trying to achieve with regulating frontier models? What I've seen about the original EO that got paused was this had something to do with frontier models, mythos. Specifically scaring people

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  29. He loves being inclusive and loves business people coming with him to China, coming to the White House, coming to the Melania screening. It's all part of what he does. He wanted Jenny.

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  30. You know, we need more business models, lower cost tools for healthcare so that people can get the care they want. And I love the idea of a peer-to-peer funding platform that helps people negotiate better bills and still find great doctors. Capitalism at its best.

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  31. I saw it at AOL. People were measured based on what percentage of their calendar was filled. And if you could go to your boss and be like, look, my calendar is swamped. I am super busy. And nobody ever said like, of those meetings, how many of those were actually necessary? And it was like none of them are necessary

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  32. How many middle managers Everybody hated their middle manager. Like, it's like the entire Dilbert cartoon. In peace, Scott Adams was predicated on middle management being dumb, unnecessary, not providing enough value

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  33. I mean, I think Matthew Prince's was more considered Jack from Square was more considered block. I'm not saying they're perfectly communicating it, but I think they're...

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  34. Just to move things Exactly. So this is, I think, going to be the game on the field. Zuckerberg, never been great at messaging this stuff in a

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  35. In big tech is you're going to either sell the product or make the product. You're going to sell the product or make the product. But the people who are supporting those two groups of people are going to be less and less necessary. Agents will do that work better. And it's just the game on the field, folks. You have to embrace these tools. You have to get good at building products or selling products. And I think a lot of the other jobs will be automated just like the typing pool was automated, the mail room was automated by email. The typing room was automated by everybody becoming typists. It's over, folks. The writing's on the wall. I don't think we have to have this debate over is this AI job loss? It is AI job loss. So then the next debate, the actual debate we should have is, are these companies going to tackle more problems and hire more of the AI builders? And I think the answer to that is heck yes. I'm continuing to hire people.

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  36. I think you'll be able to answer this question in the next year or two when you look at the number of employees working in big tech and what jobs people are looking for and which jobs they're no longer looking for product manager, designer, middle management, what Matthew Prince in his recent layoff manifesto, Matthew Prince of Cloudflare, I think a very considered person. I know him, he was saying, hey, listen, we got rid of the measurers. What are the measures? It's middle management, the people who take reports from, you know, I don't know an advertising system in marketing or accounting or whatever, those people's jobs are easy to automate with the current tool set. And he said, you know, we're more profitable than ever. We're growing faster than ever. And we're doing these layoffs because it's the right thing to do in terms of efficiency. What does it mean for the average per

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  37. And then at the same time, say, we're going to monitor everybody's desktop, not for security reasons that you're not leaking information or data's not leaking and we want to protect our users' data. Like that's a valid reason to lock down computers. Every modern company has lockdown computers with this software to make sure data doesn't leak. You have to. You have no choice. It's just part of business today. He's actually doing these things at the same time, having these conversations and putting them together, which is honest of him. Honest of him. He's like, listen, we're studying you to figure out how to make this all more effective because you're all so brilliant. It will result in more jobless.

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  38. Which is I'm going to study my employees. I'm going to see if we can train our large language models, our internal systems, our public systems, and make our employees more efficient and get rid of their chores and maybe get rid of the people who are unnecessary. At the same time, all this is coming out. It's just a really bad look. I'll say, let me take it one more time. It's a really bad look for Zuck to be doing these profound layoffs after forcing everybody to do like AI first hackathons, which they report he was doing. Yeah.

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  39. What was going on in the Biden administration as to the border controls? That's just one example. And eventually we learned, hey, yeah, a lot of people are streaming across the border. I think what we're learning now is that AI at big tech companies is resulting in a massive amount of job loss for certain jobs. And that this is appealing to the leadership at these companies because doing more with less means earnings go up and means you can invest money in other places. Zuckerberg is the most cutthroat of any of the modern business people I've ever covered as a journalist or a commentator. He is cutthroat. He has obviously a long track record of screwing partners and people have complained and sued him over that. People have complained that he steals everybody else's content. And this would be another cutthroat behavior.

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  40. At the same time, we have to answer a very basic question. Have we moved from big tech is bloated and they're using AI washing as cover for doing layoffs? Or can we take these leaders at their words and study their actions and understand that AI is creating job loss at big tech? And Sachs and I have debated this over and over again on social media, online, the administration, everybody. And there is all studies. And when you're in the early stages, what I've learned, in the early stages of a profound change, you will be getting mixed signals. You'll be getting signals, oh, there's a ton of people crossing the border. Oh, those videos of people crossing the border were from five years ago. And it took a year or two to figure.

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  41. If the Chinese Appalled by worker conditions at your company, that speaks volumes. Like in China, people work 996, factories. They're known for oppressive work conditions. If they're appalled by Facebook's work conditions, that might be worth some self-reflection from the management team at Meta.

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  42. Yeah, hypothesis worth checking out there, this incel movement people on Reddit, subreddits, you know, playing video games, not being interested in girls. It seems to be like this male component of like not pursuing the opposite sex. And then maybe they don't couple or find a mate and make babies is really important for society to think about that correlation.

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  43. You think this correlates with the population decline and the lack of people getting married and having families? Is that why these last couple or is it contributing? I mean, it makes sense that it will.

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  44. Then, yes, yeah. What are all the downstream things from their dependency on this? Oh, my Lord, you know, in terms of productivity, et cetera. And it's the same thing with JLPs, which I'm a big fan of.

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  45. Yeah, really interesting, Lon, I think incentives matter so much here. I think we're going to enter an era where as healthcare costs are double, triple, the rest of the world, the United States has the best healthcare in the world. We also pay through the nose, like triple most other countries that have socialized medicine. So there's this disparity we're seeing. And one of the ways to close that gap is to not give care that's unnecessary and unravel that. And then, of course, avoid downstream negative impacts. And so that's why I just love this company is, hey, it's clear that 50 million people don't need to be on these in my estimation and many others. And if that's correct and we can get that number in half, that savings goes right to the bottom line. And those people have a better life.

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  46. Which is sell, sell, sell, you know, increase the dosage, double the price, et cetera, et cetera. And then we got 50 million people on it. But I suppose that the employers paying for health insurance, I pay for lawns as an example, we want our premiums to come down. We want to spend less. So now we're at odds with the doctors and the pharma industry, which get paid every time lawn comes into the office, every time he changes that med, that rings the doctor's register, I believe, and it rings the pharma's register, I'm sure. So talk to me about these, if I'm correct, and I am a neophyte, these opposing forces and incentives matter. We always talk about that in startups, in government. Everything in between, personal responsibility, incentives do matter here. How do you manage a business model with conflicting power? Forces

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  47. The wraparam is what we call it. The old wraparound. You wrap around the mountain, you traverse it. Incredible. Okay, so this makes total sense. Brandon, how does it become a business? How do you productize this into a business? And then I'm curious about the incentives. We had the incentives of the drug companies.

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  48. I can tell you about this metaphor when it comes to skiing. When I ski, there is a 3.4 mile roundabout at the mountain I like to ski at. Very gentle, green and blue, difficulty. And then there is a 1.4 mile straight down the mountain. That's a double diamond diamond. And you go very fast and you get down the same amount of vertical in a fraction of the time, but it is scary as all get out. If you're not an expert skier, do not bomb down those double diamonds. And I think that's what you're showing here.

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  49. I'm just saying it's crazy when you look at the Well, I mean, going from 5 milligram to zero is 58% change, whereas going from 20 to 15, which is still 5 milligrams, is a 3% change. 15 to 10 milligrams is a 6% change, 10 milligrams to 5 milligrams, 13% change. That's all taking 5 milligrams out. The last five milligrams, as you're saying, those are the important ones. And that should really be done much differently.

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  50. Yeah, it's like a third This is just, I mean, I hate to say it, but I feel like it's criminal. Okay, so let's talk about the business here and incentives, Brandon. Obviously, you got to show.

    2026-05-23 · This Week in Startups · From hypercars to cruise missiles: Lukas Czinger on the future of US defense | E2292 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source