YouSaid · the spoken record

Michael Apolito

lines on the record: 79
first: 2026-04-10
most recent: 2026-04-10
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“That's what I did mostly for the last few weeks. Now I'm like, okay, I see some interesting things to start to build into. And yeah, you know, if I get, if I'm buying local tops, you know, it's okay. I think it's going to pay off in the next few months here. You got to hedge it out, whether it's just like going to buy some long dated oil longs or what have you. Or I don't know. You still want to be thinking about the other side here for sure.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Literally, in just the last two minutes here, I'm just seeing a tweet from Trump saying there were reports that Iran is charging fees of tankers going through the Hormu Strait. They better not be. And if they are, they better stop now. So, I mean, obviously it's not settled.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We've been just like basically sucking off the teeth of US power for so long. And it's probably a healthier thing for Europe long term, but they need to actually take out all the communists in Europe because there's a real break. Like things could really get screwed in Europe if the stuff stays. And relatively we do produce, like Germany turned off their nuclear power. Like that's probably coming back on, right? There's a lot of things that this will politically do to change Europe going forward. And from that perspective. I don't know. We'll find out in a year or two if Trump was a genius or not. I think he pushed it to the brink and it could have really devolved, but maybe he threaded the needle. It's worth you.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The 4D chess thing, like, if you fast forward three months and you can say, well, maybe Trump did destabilize a lot of these European globalist structures that have been stultifying European growth for so long through this hormuz thing. And that is a very interesting thought experiment because Like NATO clearly didn't join in. That's kind of interesting just about power structures, but also the individual politics in each country is like when you get the Straight of Hormuz cut off and we don't force ourselves into it, what is Europe now has to reinvest in itself in their capital markets because there is this existential breakage point And I think you have to as a government, you have to start thinking about that. Where am I going to get my”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, if you feel like, okay, sell America, I got to get out of owning all the next big wave of adoption in AI. Oh, I'm going to go to Europe and buy whatever companies, the one that are owning the little plastic bottle. Caps that attach to it, and that's the innovation that's going on in Europe. Give me a break.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Amazing how reflexive this stuff is, too, where geopolitically everyone piled into Europe and then they realized, oh crap, here's this existential risk in European stuff. And now, see, this is where I don't think the US is toast because they still are the innovative capital of the world. And like what are you going to do? Were you going to take your assets out of US stocks in this whole debacle? It's the safest place to be. Still, even when oil spikes, I think that's probably why it's been self-reflexive to the upside is you still have this innovation machine. Very, very potent You know, if you're Japan, are you going to repatriate that capital home? Or I don't know”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, on Nat, when you just look at how much position he got rents in that, like everybody was on the Sal America from January to February. And that all got rinsed out. So there's probably an opportunity there if we go back to this regime of Dollar Down and Wrestle World strength.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, yeah. I mean, if it's obviously you have to underwrite that a lot of that rest of world is also much more dependent on Middle Eastern energy, so you have to debate that. But non-developed, yeah.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and I think that's why bonds are struggling too, because like. That's what we did with this oil move. Say oil goes back down, right? Then what the dollar must get smoked. And that's extremely inflationary for U.S. importing inflation with a weaker currency. That's why I think the outlook for certain things in the US still just, when I play every scenario forward, I don't come to like a great outcome. I think the trades, like you said, Felix, a lot of these non-US trades have gotten rinsed and Latam, China, like anywhere but US kind of seems to be like, I think you want to just go right back to that well.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, if that's all we got from the classic correlation rotation that should happen to dollar and that's all we got, like, yeah, I'm back moving towards the camp of dollar down. Like it's just, if that's all we could muster through like the fucking doomsday scenario of the straight, like, yeah, it's just, yeah, it's telling you something.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Went to where it did, like at this rate, you would expected Japan and Europe, you know, the euro and yen to be just blowing out because they're so short energy and it's like, oh my God, they're so screwed. And then you're looking at the charts and you're like, huh, like, why is the dollar this week? And so.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A third of the world's commodity supply that used to be traded in dollars to now trade it in anything but dollars, that's a pretty big hit to dollar USD had so you know that has very structural implications that aren't priced in today that will be pricing over time in terms of less demand for dollars and i think it's we were talking about this quite a bit felix over the last couple weeks and saying how the dollar has upside because of oil and yields but it's been also you know you have to kind of look at it and say like wow we almost doubled the oil price and dollar only”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think to these points, a basket of commodities, even, I mean, you have to be a little more careful, like we were just saying on the oil front and where you play the curve. But I think a basket is so required because I don't know what your guys' take on what happens in the straight, but to me, it looks like a best case is an Iran-controlled told paid in foreign currency. And if you remove.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Minor, that's like one of those ones again where it's just like you go into the sectors and you pick them out, and there's these quiet narratives that everybody's forgotten about, which is that, oh my God, like spot gold is way above their break-even rates for so much of this now. We've all forgotten about that because we're busy with all this other stuff going on in Iran. It's like, in the meantime, look what's going on there, these margins are absurd.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“World where you have basically economic warfare going on in markets. That's really, so this is the real price of things now is what I think is really emerging in the gold miners. And at the end of the day, if gold doesn't implode, these miners are printing dough. There's no, at the end of that, that's really, there was a, I can't really talk single stock names, but there was a miner that got taken out, junior minor that got taken out for 79% premium in Canada today. That doesn't happen. So, this might be the MA cycle happening in gold miners now.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Check this out. Go to slide 52. This is fascinating in terms of gold and why I think it's becoming like a really great diversifier and low vol a baby that's not it. Go to the next one. Tekito. Tekito. Returns after he. But okay, so this is the left side is global gold demand and then the right side is global gold supply. And you can kind of see how well balanced it is where we have in North America, 11% of the demand and 14% of the supply. But like talk about like a decentralized currency, that's really what gold is. You think about it and why it's replacing a lot of the petrodollar recycling and export dollar recycling here. And I just don't see that going away in this.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think there could be one little dip, but I agree that I'm getting bullish gold again as well. I think it's holding up phenomenally. And to your point, Tyler, like we're seeing it play out what the end game is. And it's just, and it just continued suppression of free markets and sovereign bond markets globally and even probably commodity markets in this manipulation. So you have to have a debasement hedge. Like you just have to because at the end of the day, they will try everything. And so.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now they're on to the other side of that. I'm getting pretty bullish on gold again. I think it's gone through that. We've had the hikes get priced into curves. Yeah, it feels like clear sailing to me.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's literally the punch protection team. I would have been so bearish if they just let the dollar go and the yen. And went to that would've free markets, but that no longer exists. Clearly, like Bessant was one of the guys that broke the, you know, the pound. And now he knows all this stuff. And you have to replay that in your head and know when you get to those like pressure points. It's the exact point that Trump tacoed was literally at the breaking point of all the FX and yields and credit markets.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know what is really interesting on that point is we watch the dollar almost break out to the upside where the dollar wrecking ball thesis happened. And the yen was right at 160 and like which could destabilize Japan and you have this all these weird carry trade things that happen. I would love to know, number one, they did say they're hiring the government's hiring for like an economic market team that does this stuff or maybe that's what Besson's really doing is he's making sure, okay, here's these threshold points that will destabilize the Western world and you get there and you're like, oh, here's a swap line. Go cover your currency in Japan. We'll weaken the dollar”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like we were saying last year, or end of last year, end of this year, long, long metals, short MEG seven. You know they're going to be doing stuff to manipulate markets and you kind of have to have some debasement expression on the long side because nominally everything's going to go up over the, we know that over a multi-year time horizon, but real returns will be shit. And you need something to protect you from that if you want to express a negative view on assets.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It is. I mean, but you also look at the Treasury bond market and how many calls is Bessant making a day trying to get because there's big 10 and 30s auction this week. And you look at those candles, it's just like the bond market wants to break out every single day. And then it's just like, nope. And then you see gold coming absolutely out of like this severe equity correlation like grave that it seemed and it's trying to peak its head back up. And so every time they like swap the bond yields down gold, you know, rears its head. To me, it's just like they're just definitely manipulation behind the scenes that is going on. And that's kind of why to your point, Felix, you have to deploy a long short approach. Kind of like.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It is there's a negative carry, I would say, on the bond market, though, because we're drifting upwards. We're sloped upwards in yields with a drift, but you're right. I mean, it's demand. The bond market saying it's demand destruction right now. But if there was a policy response to ease rates or fiscally stimulate, you bet your bridges that the bond market would start to say sustainable inflation. But right now there's no policy response yet. And that sort of. It's a double edged sword, right? Because my.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know what's nuts though is it hasn't flown through to yields at all, like the 10 years at 427. It's kind of wild, you know. Like, it's very. The fixed income market does not believe that this thing will stay. Yet I agree with you. Like maybe two weeks of this price spike or whatever, three weeks a month, the market's looking through it right now”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A great example of where I just think we're at in this whole thing. Like, I totally agree with that. I think there's if you're trying to buy the front month in hopes of $200 oil, I don't really see that happening. But I could totally see this convergence of 70 to 90. And there is interesting looking even at Dated Brand. still very high. You could make the argument we're still in that demand destruction zone. You look at physical oil as opposed to paper.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's definitely a lot of congestion up here, and there's also a lot of long positioning. There's a lot of speculation. And it would appear to me based on how things are trading that we're sort of into like the demand destruction price zone on oil. Like if we're in the 110 to 120 range, to me, that's pretty demand destruction-y. Like when you, so I don't really know, I don't love playing for a ton of upside beyond that in front month. So I'd rather just, I think like if you're buying $70 back month and I think, you know, if it converges on $90 in November, you know later in the year, I think you're up 20, 25% on that trade. And I just, I'm good with that because it's no, you're definitely no longer early into if you're playing.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, it's rallied back quite a bit. I should have Tuesday or Wednesday because I've been very long the December and March 27. And those things were up the next day, which is kind of crazy So that was like, and I felt good about that trade construction, but while I was just sort of doing other things, I totally, given my view that it was kind of BS, I absolutely should have rotated my back end futures to the front few months. And I would have been up bigger today and yesterday, but I still just love that trade. I love my entries. So I'm kind of just holding tight and playing this to last. It's tough because when you look at like front month prices relative to even say like 2022.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Things can just work out differently than you think because Bitcoin bottomed on the day the Iran war started. At top locally on the day we get the ceasefire, maybe right so in the software thing could be leader. I think it's for liquidity driven assets, it's still tough, tough sliding because when you peel back the war, it's still a very... You know, these other assets with more secular tailwinds, like semiconductors, I agree, still have a safe haven bid behind them.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I agree. I don't have any positions in spy or QQQ. Yeah. I'm long short. I think that going out the curve in oil futures is extremely interesting as this is being priced to be over ASAP. I think there's, yeah, I mean, the dispersion, like we were saying earlier, is tremendous. If you look at semiconductors versus software or retail names like Palantir, Robinhood, or some of these other things that have just gotten rinse, I think I agree. Unless you have a very, very strong view and positioning alliance to be extremely, extremely not sure. But I think my point is just like, yeah, it is hard to talk into C level. But in terms of economic ramifications, there's some funny corollaries back to like the 70s where you had the big price spike in 74 and oil embargo.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Just on this chart, like, this is what I wanted to say to your point: is that I just think at this stage of the crisis we're at, like, there's still a ton of specific trades to take in this commodity complex here. And I think it's just, it's a lot more. Effective, I think, to go deeper into these than just trying to take an equity US equity indices view, because I think it's just like super choppy, noisy. But there's a whole host of opportunity. Like just look at this graph, right? Like, I think there's going to continue to be a ton of interesting opportunities regardless of what happens with U.S. equity indices.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Go back to the China one. I was just thinking through this. This is really interesting because the fact that China, this could be really bad for China. The fact that 30-year bond yields didn't rise, meaning they have deflation there if the inflation pricks the debt bubble there and they go.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the Chinese currency. So there's definitely a lot of ramifications that we'll feed through that I don't think can be discounted into markets and fully understood within like this short of time period. And the other slide is just 34 and 35. I don't think.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To slide 38, Felix. I thought this was super interesting. The Rise in 30-year bonny yield since the day before the start of the Iran War, UK, Japan, France, those all make sense. Being the most because they're super short energy. But then if you look at the bottom China The hilarious part about all this is that it's made China a safe haven for global bond markets. And almost if you think about it, like it's probably smart that China didn't do something rash on the geopolitical front and they just kind of sat back and let the US do their thing because if they would have gotten involved, it would have added risk to their currency and safe haven status. But now it's almost like they're winning because there's less global trade of oil and dollars and more in...”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is the so bearish and bullish? There's bigger issues, which is you got to roll the treasury debt at lower rates so that you can finance the defense budget, right? And then here's the other grill. If there's credit stress, it's going to come from this, which is software stocks are rolling over, right? And there's a mounting maturity wall for tech debt. So in 2026, it starts, what's a 50 billion? But there's more than 330 billion of high yield leverage loan business developed company link software and tech debt coming for repayment through 2028. So that's like, if there's like problems in the market, this is where it really is. And this is these are where the landmines you have to avoid. And you'll see credit problems there right now. The credit spreads are coming back in. I don't maybe that just might be a short squeeze, but.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Watch that turn into the political capital they need to really ease because you also have to roll eight trillion dollars of treasury paper and also check this out go to slide 44 So, I think there's bigger”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Europe's getting their last LNG and oil shipments tomorrow, and they're already rationing fuel across UK, Ireland, and most countries. And then their next one at a minimum can't come until end of May. There's a bit of reality, I think, that needs to still set in here. Like, there's going to be mass cancellation of flying routes internationally. Just, I'm not like, it's a more manageable situation, maybe, but I just think it's too unknown to be like super pulled”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Maybe two months. I probably, yeah, I can see that. I mean, but again, you're fighting the market structure too. But who knows where that net's out? Like, honestly, we have our trip, but I don't know.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's a good reminder, too, of time horizons here for these trades because if you're talking about a higher lower the next couple weeks, like if I'm trying to build these positions in these compute longs, I don't really give a shit if they go down 5% from here. Like, I'll just buy some more”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, I think there is a bounce to be had in later this month, but I just don't think we're out of the, like into May, you know, he's trying to run the same playbook as last year, China meeting mid-May, trying to pump it into the summer doldrums where, you know, markets just kind of float up and Volcrush.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Until at Warsh's first meeting, and that's mid You have zero logical rational basis to. The market's not going to price. There's nothing that will lose his credibility in standing in a group FOMC committee than pushing for a cut his first meeting when inflation's ripping and the job market's fine than getting a cutoff. So I just think like there's a lot of wishful thinking.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, even if every central bank goes from pricing in hikes to back to cuts again, I mean, even if they don't even things change just because of the pricing of the curve, even if they don't necessarily do the hike cuts. I mean, maybe that's a bit of it. It's also probably like just sailor bidding and TWAP. That's super wishful.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“All gonna get, he's gonna clean house, he's gonna blame it on them, and then take the win, and this is what the so bearish I'm bullish. Politics is just like markets where it's kind of mean reverting in a lot of ways. And like, I think Trump really lost a lot of his base in a lot of things he did here. But that being said, you can still have a short squeeze against a lot of the policies if you walk it back. We'll see if he has enough time to do it, but I think Bitcoin's actually sniffing out maybe some global liquidity relief.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's a point that they just throw the kitchen sink at it to make sure the markets, these things get out. But when they get out, I mean, look at Tesla, right? Like it looks like everyone's just dumping that to make room for more Elon paper and the SpaceX IPO. So like when these things do come to market and evaporate, you know, whatever their float is from the from the IPO market and equities, then it's probably look out below. But something tells me like I kind of my base is more of like sort of a retest or a higher low over the next one to two weeks because I still think there's chance that They're going boots on the ground in Iran because I don't think Trump can walk from the straight. So that or he just concedes to a deal that as of now is worse than Obama's. So he's taken a big L either way because I think.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I also think there's like in the back of my mind, the thing that just keeps standing out is, there's always bigger powers at play than in the markets. And with the open AI, SpaceX, Anthropic, all this backlog of AI IPOs that You know, there's very, very large, powerful people who need to see these things get to market. In the back of my mind, it's like”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To the wall, making a lot of money. So you can underwrite a lot of debt backing that in OpenAI too. One interesting thing, which is so crazy to me, is OpenAI finally wrote a paper saying, hey, there's going to be massive disruption in the labor pool. And here's some, you know, I need to actually dig in and read the whole thing. I just kind of saw the headlines, but they're finally getting ahead of how disruptive this stuff is and saying, okay, the government's underwriting this from a geopolitical war game scenario, but it's going to absolutely annihilate some people in the marketplace in the labor pool. And I really, this should be a bigger conversation politically. And finally, you got one piece saying it. So I don't know. I think that's a good thing from the tech industry.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Love that. I do think part of it is credit spreads have come back in. Like the move index has come back in. So when oil comes crashing back down, it really allows the credit markets to keep funding and underwriting this stuff. It also helps that anthropic and is just”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Rising pretty consistently. But if I stick on the compute, I'm almost done. If I stick on the compute and I know that it's a natural imperative, somebody's going to foot that bill, but I just don't want to be exposed to the people buying it. I want to own the people that are selling it.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm still in the mind of being long to be long, the things selling to the hyperscalers. I still don't really want to own the hyperscalers here. Because then I have to take a view on how they're funding it. And that's like, we've talked about the issues there. You know, you got private credit going to zero, like Blue Alban just spreads.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And also the beneficiaries. There's probably more meat on the bone in terms of the downstream beneficiaries. But yeah, if you're going to be long something, it seems like. It's like I'm still of the mind.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think it's more of the same AI secular winner safety trade. That leads because I mean, are you going to buy consumer when they're getting hit on both ends from kind of negative momentum on the wealth effect falling savings rate and then a demand oil price shock and everything goes up in price? Doesn't seem like a great environment to bet on the consumer. Granted, I'm not saying huge recession, but it's a headwind. And then you have Government still seemingly supporting the long end of the bond market globally, which helps these and putting other stimulus behind AI. So I agree that I think the MEG 7 and semis probably lead as a safety haven. Like if you're going to be long something.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT