YouSaid · the spoken record

Michael Apolito

lines on the record: 79
first: 2026-04-10
most recent: 2026-04-10
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“This is from EPP Research Eric Bosmojan. Business computer equipment investment as a percentage of GDP is just, I mean, we've talked about this a lot. It's one of the core drivers of GDP. And maybe you could do some technical analysis on this chart and say, oh, look, double top. But the fact of the matter is that we need a lot more compute versus where we're at right now. So I am very interested personally in looking at those sectors and then maybe just hedging out market risk if I'm concerned about that. But I do see some sectoral opportunities. I think it's not just like everything correlation to one going to zero, basically.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Demand supply mismatch for compute here, and I think that's going to continue nonlinearly. And I think when you see something like this new anthropic model come out that is potentially so valuable that it's looking at cybersecurity risk for important codes from the past 20 years that we're suddenly finding these zero day exploits in, that becomes a national imperative. I think that this needs to get funded no matter how like it's a national security risk at this point and they're going to find out which way or however. I think you're starting to see that when you contrast the demand to the supply mismatch of this compute that is needed. I just think it runs like mad. And then the last one I want to show is when you put this all together into just economic growth.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sandisk is breaking out. NVIDIA, NVIDIA, however you want to say it, has still been chopping around. But I think the market is underpricing the demand for compute here. I think if you just go and talk to the average person, their experience with AI right now, a lot of it is mostly associated with chatbot use. That is very different from what you see in terms of usage for a gentic harnesses. Like the token demand is nonlinear. So there's just, you know, you see this right now where suddenly everybody's getting throttled on entropic usage. Nobody can actually use these things. They're kicking people off certain harnesses. Like there is a huge.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exactly. So, okay, so this is a good chart that I retweet from Warren Pies this week looking at the demand for all this compute. And it's just absolutely insane right now, regardless of what's been going on with Iran war, GPU availability for B200s has collapsed zero. H100 is close behind. Whatever happens with the war, the AI complex is likely to lead any true sustainable bull market. Unsurprising to see SMH less than 1% from an all-time high. And you just look at these, anything associated with this compute demand is just breaking out right now. So SMH is breaking out.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Maybe for sure. I think it's to me it's becoming a regime of I see the top line equity indices just chopping around for like most of the rest of the year and trying to pick your sectors and interesting narratives amidst like a pretty choppy macro positioning because I think there is some potential growth prospect so okay this week we had the the anthropic mythic or mythos model come out and it's just like absolutely blown up any sort of expert it was quote i mean if you if you listen to what they're saying it was so good and so powerful that we couldn't release it to the public I don't know. It's probably just marketing. But the fact of the matter is what if they're just not releasing it to the public because they don't have enough compute for these new models? That's what I mostly think”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I want to lean towards where you're at, Tyler. The only hang up I have right now is the inflation outlook. So we had the core PCE come out today. And it was like, again, this is stripping out oil energy. Like, it's really bad. It was re-accelerating before this. And like you look at the past three months of core PC month over month at 0.40 bips. He stack on a surge of headline inflation from energy. And that part concerns me, and that's where you start to see the analogs of 2022. But where does the marginal growth come for equities? I want to go through a couple charts of how I'm thinking about AI right now.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, what I think is like Trump gets in, you have all these expectations for Fed easing, blah, blah, blah. You do a giant gamma squeeze in the high beta momentum indexes in the beginning part of 2025 after the tariffs. Huge gamma squeeze happens. You see implied vaul go blow out relative to realized vol as everyone, all these retail call option buyers just lever up and go yolo. And now we saw that whole phenomenon bam come smashing back down. And now you see retail got pounded. And this is from Citadel. A retail cash platform finished last week net selling for the first week since November 2025. So you had that exact thing happen right as the Fed expectations went from a hike to an ease. So I don't know. I think we're probably starting a whole new like. Bullish cycle here potentially off of the feds got its back. You get some fiscal stuff.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But you went from a hike baked in and like multiples getting absolutely annihilated to the next day oil crumbles and you have like now you have a cut baked in for by December of the end of the year so I mean it's like the epitome of a centrally planned economy into geopolitics of how fast these things can flip you can see two different realities but underlying it all it's it kind of looks good it kind of looks good to me and then go to slide 43 this is and you always got to think like retails on the opposite it's it's always getting smushed out”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's one chart. This is actually a And so, what is that telling us? And a lot of it could be energy stocks, a lot of it could be different parts of the economy. But here's one. This is non-defense capital goods. This is the blue line, less aircrafts. And then the white line is industrial production following. So underlying the economy, these things should turn up. Granted, you'll get a dose of inflation from CPI. But what was really interesting is we saw the Fed funds flip from going from a hike within a day. I've never seen the economy flip a headline like that.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Guess the question is if the outlook calls for like if you're if you're fresh money are you does your outlook suggest it's attractive entries to buy here which I think is like I think it's like astounding Others might disagree”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Narratively, I'm talking mental frameworks in terms of vibes. But associated with it, like there has been some of the biggest degrossing over the past two months. It's just it's been offset through a variety of different ways, but there has been really substantial degrossing. Like we've seen CTAs way lower. So you pair that with this narrative of doom. And just I think through the simple mechanism of how having to go from pricing and debating that to pricing and debating what does a resolution look like is enough of an all-clear for these positions to be rebuilt. And I just don't think that happens over two to three days. In my mind, it's like a two-week thing to rebuild those positions. So I think I believe this is going to be a counter trend rally, but I think it takes a bit longer than just a couple days.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I just feel like it's going to take longer. And then you contrast that with like, I think there's a lot of core static economic variables that are still very much at risk here because the straight is still basically closed. But when you just think in terms of semantics of mental frameworks in terms of this whole thing, it's like, okay, we went from this situation that was pricing or thinking about, you know, I would say almost a depression at this point. And with that.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I want to pull back for a second just add my takes on a couple of those different pieces there. On the systematic market structure point, like hearing both of those theses, like the way I think about it is that I don't think a few days is enough for the positioning to reset and for all the shorts to have been squeezed. Like I think it's a longer term. Like when you look at how much decrossing has happened over the past couple months, even just like the CTAs, but just across the board as well.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, yeah, I think that's exactly the reason why, because all those things are saying, I'm so bearish. I'm so bearish that I'm bullish. Like I think I said, I also tweeted, it's time to be so bearish on Trump that you're bullish because He's got to pull some rabbits out of his hat. He's got to pull back from this war, which we're seeing now. And then we also are seeing into midterms. He's going to goose it. And I think that's where the divergence of Bitcoin's happening is like people are anticipating some sort of policy response. And I know you think it's sailor buying, but like Bitcoin divert is diverging from software now. And I think that's saying to us Trump's going to pull out some massive weird policies to juice things for midterms to help him look a little bit better. So that's my read on the situation. We'll see if that's right.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You think this environment calls for lower than 20 VIX? Oil stud 100 bucks though straight not open in midterm elections in eight months Trump's polling numbers in the 20 to 30s and you know like no good liquidity”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You got to watch out, there's landmines in the market. So I'm not fully full on bullish just on like an index basis. It feels like a little bit more secure to me because everyone was so overprotected to the downside. That's unwinding. But you have to be selective on your sectors now.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Let's go back. There we go. Yeah. So this is the EPS is the white line of the software sector and the price is the yellow line. And you can see like we actually haven't even seen the software sector earnings roll over just yet, which is kind of wild. So this is all just premium compression, anticipating that AI will actually eat software's lunch. I guess there's a point to be made that maybe If earnings are better in the software, you could probably see a massive squeeze in software and deleveraging from all the AI names. But that's not what we're seeing right now. And I think people are starting to get that this AI theme is real and it's really disruptive. So once this starts rolling over, the EPS and the software sector, it's like.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A lot of interesting things happening. This is the IGV software ETF. This looks like death. It's breaking, you know, the daily, the daily, the weekly, and the monthly moving averages. And it's breaking all three. So this is how my framework is AI is actually eating software's lunch. It's terrible and not terrible. It could be massively, you know, 21st century industrial boom, right? That's got to come from somewhere and it's coming from IGV. So go to slide 49 first. Oh, sorry. That's, yeah, this one.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Fix goes lower, and if there's no pickup in this geopolitical angst, I think these CTAs will relever. It happens with so messed up with market structure is like you look at it and I heard this narrative is like it's a short squeeze, but it's on low volume. But that's the way these things function, right? They happen on low volume now because it's like Vic slower need to buy. Vic slower need to buy. And the market structure changed back in the day it would happen on high volume because you were human. So I don't know. I'm pretty, not only that, but then the leaders. So there's another divergence we're seeing. So check out this. This is slide 47.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“CTA projected flow, which is how extreme it is and how if you look at how the derivatives market was actually positioned into that event, the VIX was inverted, meaning the front month people were paying up for front month VIX exposure and it was more expensive than three-month VIX exposure. So massive divergence there, which is one of the best contra indicators consistently every single time we bring it up. But this is now they're massively short. And as that”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Wanted to talk about it, so there you go. So, this is from my buddy Colin O'Reick Goldman, who does incredible work, one of the best derivatives guys on the street, young smart guy. We estimate the systematic community is still short, 37 billion of US equities, and CTAs are now in aggressive buy mode. So over the next week, we have systematic guys buying $45 billion of U.S. equities in a flat tape. So I think that largely synopsizing if you go to the next slide, you can.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm kind of bold up here, but I'm bold up in the productivity. My framework and I tweeted about this is we are in a productivity boom. There's no doubt about it that AI is scaling and it's real and it's here. Anthropics doing 30 billion might do 100 billion in revenue this year. At the same time, it's eating software's lunch. This in a productivity boom, you have to pick winners and losers and stay away from the losers, right? But I think overall you have to be a little bit more bullish here given the positioning. Yeah, can you hit me with slide 45?”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Liquidity is already not in a great spot, and the Fed's going to have to be late. And then you're like, okay, so that's not a great picture. And prices are all the way sort of back to near highs. And then, oh, wait, the war's actually not solved and the straight isn't open. So the ceasefire is kind of fake. So like you just had this huge positioning rinse of super offsides like delevered and super hedged up vault. Now I kind of feel like it's in no man's land where the risk reward is back to skewing extremely negative for stocks broadly. I mean, dispersion is picking back up. So I think like, you know, talking in broad strokes, it's there's definitely opportunities out there that you're starting to see more of. But as far as like broad market, there's no like the fundamentals in macro outlook to me don't justify us being three.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I felt that there wasn't much left to really push us up. But we talked about the positioning thing last week on the show, actually. And I covered everything and then started easing back into shorts yesterday through Tuesday through today. And yeah, I think that it was the classic finding a narrative to describe the price because everybody was pretty, you know, obviously off sides for that move, but the question then as you re-underwrite the outlook, does it change anything? And I was spending the last few days thinking and writing. And as I was doing it, it's like, okay, the first thing I said was, okay, maybe we can focus on the macro outlook a little bit instead of the war. And then you start thumbing through the macro outlook and you're like, wait, this isn't that great. Like inflation is going to be blistering for the next number of prints.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, I guess in hindsight, it was kind of obvious. Like once he was kept talking up his ambitions to destroy and calling it power plant bridge day and then all the Iranians were going to the bridges. It seemed, I was thinking today as like there's no way you just bombs all these bridges with like tens of thousands of Iranians there. But at the same time, I kind of was like,”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, exactly, pro science. All right, guys. Yeah, we got the ceasefire, apparently. Still working out what exactly it looks like. It seems like both parties have different versions of it. Seems to be the point of contention as weather Israel can still keep bombing Lebanon. Seems like there's a million points of contention. It seems like... Don't know. I mean, yeah, we'd love to hear about how you guys are thinking about it. What did you expect going into? I don't even know what the hell Trump was calling it, Power Plant Day, maybe. How did it pan out versus what you expected?”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Easter before we go, I have to tell you, Easter is a lot more fun when you don't have kids because like you do the Easter thing and they just they get hopped up on sugar and then the rest of the day they're just like You pack them with all this horrible stuff, and you're negotiating with little terrorists, and you're like, God, just go to sleep.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Time to be so bearish on Trump that you're bullish because he's got to pull some rabbits out of his hat. He's got to pull back from this war, which we're seeing now. And then we also are seeing, you know, into midterms. He's going to goose it.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If you were told you could short the SP 500 3% from all time highs when the straight arm moves has been closed for 45 days, you would take that blindfolded every day of the week. The fundamentals and macro outlook to me don't justify us being 3% off eyes.”
2026-04-10 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT