YouSaid · the spoken record

Michael Murphy

lines on the record: 129
first: 2016-09-23
most recent: 2016-09-23
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“I did the 2000 campaign. I didn't do 2008. And for me, I did the governor's race. People always hear my bio and say, so you're the idiot who loves, no, no, no. I did the Straight Talk Express, which did lose, but boy, do we have fun.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I can't believe that. He's, I think, working on something today where he's going to try to get out of it. But he gets out of it, then he gets back in it. Right.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so they tick down. So there's kind of a vix of polling going on, and it's mostly Hillary moving around. Trump's creeped up from 41 to 43, but he's running out of voters. Right.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so the real action of this race has been Hillary going from the high 40s. And oh, she's way ahead to Hillary doing something stupid or having a bad weekend campaign. Yeah, when they keep at a state secret, pneumonia is suddenly the new nuclear code. You can't tell anybody for seven hours after you faceplant into the Scooby-Doo band there on television to the whole country. It's insane. But they get in trouble and the polls are basically annoys meter of what was on cable TV four days ago. That's exactly so.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. A shrinking pool, and he's getting murdered by the 30% that's minority. So Trump is stuck in this low 40s cul-de-sac of demography. The reason the race looks close is when the media only covers horse race, 4242. Right. Well, 4242 is the voters saying we hate both these guys because a bag of cement can get 40 with a D on it and a bag of cement with an R on it will get 39. So the question is the difference between Hillary's 42 and 49 or Trump's 42 and 49 or 50 who are those people? Well, they look a lot more like Democrat-lean voters than Republican.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. And so he's in trouble there, particularly if white college educated women who really are the most powerful swing vote. He's doing great with blue-collar white guys. An increasingly small pool.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You're the 99 each day. The sirens go off because they need the daily heat. That's where the clicks and eyeballs come from. So they're in business too. But if you look at the last 30 days of the polling, give or take a day And you average it all together, which real clearpolitics.com will do. The Trump number has basically been 4141, 41, 41, 41, 41, 42, 41, 41, 42, 42, 41, forty three, forty three, forty three, forty two, forty three times five. He's been stuck down there because he's in this demographic cul-de-sac where he's not getting what he ought to if college educated white people, which Republicans normally win. Roundie won him by 14 points. The Democrat”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or 15. But he may bring in some people Romney didn't have too, you know, so there are two numbers there. But fundamentally, if you look at this polling and there's constantly panic about polling. Because the media business has to cover for eyeballs every day of the election like it's the Hindenburg explosion. Sure. No matter what happens, it's the biggest thing in the world.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I don't know about stay at home because there are other places they can go. We got the Libertarians, they vote, but they don't vote in the presidential. They vote down ballot, Senate races, or house. But let me put it this way. I think Trump will lose at least 10% of the people who pulled the lever for Romney.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The other problem Trump has is demography. The election scale in the general election, those 129 million people, is an increasingly a much more democratic group than it used to be. 30% of the voters will be minority voters, black, Latino, Asian, or mixed race. Among that group, Trump right now is losing by essentially infinity. So he's written off almost 30% of the vote, 80% of which will probably go to Hillary, maybe more.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the force that pushes Trump forward is what we political types call the wrong track, which is two-thirds or more of the people think the country is off on the wrong track. That means the election is going to be about new change, blow up the system. And that is the win that Trump can harness. Hillary is stuck being politics for 40 years. She's a pre-aware title too. Everybody knows who Hillary Clinton has. They have for decades, but she represents, oh my God, the old politics. Now, the countervailing force, though, one is Trump's weaknesses. Trump's got a lot of Trump-driven problems. He ran a campaign designed to offend swing voters that he needs to win the general election. It's like he was built in a lab to lose the election.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This prime out. Yeah, this time. As opposed to 2012. Yeah, last time, I think Romney's a very serious guy. Yeah, absolutely. I did his governor's race. But there were also some sideshow acts running.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In a set, which by the way is now the location of the campaign headquarters set, it's all this new kind of politics where pop culture is crossed over, but that created the identity where he was this super business guy on television, can do Firem, that persona. He was ratings. It is the news business. So he got more attention than anybody. And that grievance formula, which Jeb Bush would never go to do because, one, that's not who he is. It's not who he is. That's what he believes in. And Jeb knew that Trump's going to lose the general election. You know, the worst thing you want is to have a primary, which is a drunken bender, where you wake up the next morning and you've blown a presidential election. And that's what I believe we've done.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and Trump was a known title. Now, even if all he was doing was teaching Gary Busey how to work a snow cone machine, he was on primetime TV every week forever.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And you don't have to have the same marketing 11. That's why they're making movies called Battleship or these known titles.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What most people thought, and I think the people running just about all the campaigns is that Trump would be an interesting sideshow, but he'd fizzle out because there was another candidate who would get what we call the grievance vote, which was very large this year. Blow it all up, hate everything, mad, who's the enemy? And that was Cruz. So most of us thought the real threat to the nomination, who we were very worried about winning was Ted Cruz. But Trump managed to kind of out-muscle Cruz with that big persona. Trump was also with the Hollywood people in that business would call a pre-aware title, which is when you're making a movie now, you go spend $400 million and the marketing department comes up to you and says, well, we could make flowers of Ralph and spend $400 million explaining what the movie's about, or we make Iron Man 11.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, Trump had a constituency that was willing to put up with a lot of heresy from Trump. In other words, he could do things that were considered impolite or rude or offensive like attacking John McCain. Most people thought under the tip of political rules. And I did too that that would hurt him. It didn't among the third of the vote that really liked him. The other two-thirds not so sure. Even today, Trump by no means has all the Republicans lined up. But in a multi-weight, you know, campaign with 15, 16 candidates, if you can hold on to a third to 40%, that's a ticket to the end. That's what happened.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I was Jeb's kind of senior strategist when he was running for governor. Under the law, in the presidential, when you're doing the super pac, you cannot legally talk to the campaign organization. It's one or the other. You can't do that.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The CEO of the Right to Rise Pack, which has now been wound down except as a legal entity, because we get all the FBC audits after the gotcha.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think my title, and you know, we folded the pack down, we returned about 18% of the money, or excuse me, about 12. That's a good return, 18%. No, no, no. We returned our capital. But let's put it this way. Nobody else has ever returned a diamond politics. And we gave back millions of dollars.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it's a big check. These are successful people. Sometimes it's private family owned businesses Sometimes they're folks who just have always had an interest in politics and some were new. And there were people generally who knew the governor, many from when Jeb was governor of Florida when he was very successful or liked his vision that we weren't going to run a grievance campaign about who we're mad at. And we were going to run a campaign in the primary that we knew would be rocky, but we do it in a way where we thought we could win a general election. The primary voters wanted something else, so now we've got a candidate who is very strong in the primary, but is in real trouble, I believe, in the general election.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And convince them to back you, not somebody else. I mean, the people who gave to us, many of them also met with Governor Walker when he was in the race, with Senator Rubio, with Senator Cruz. You know, they were, it was a competition, and Jeb had the most compelling vision. So the typical person, some were longtime party fundraisers who might write us a check for $100,000. We had a lot of those or $50,000. You had a few of the real kind of super donors of the party who could write, I think, our largest donor was over $2 million. Mike Fernandez, a healthcare executive down in Florida. That's a big check.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the way it kind of works in the system now is you have a campaign for president, but you're limited under law to take a limited amount of money, only from people, not from business entities. So you can take your $20, you know, $700 or whatever from an individual. All the campaigns, therefore, at least most of them, would create a super pack, which can raise essentially unlimited money. So often your donors who might give you the what we call the maxed out federal check to your campaign, which is relatively small, would also give to the super pack. So we were very successful. And the one campaign we won and really JEBEB won was the donor campaign where you travel around the country, meet people.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now, people keep calling me a squish, which is the Republican word for moderate, but I'm a pretty right-wing guy. Hell, I work for Allie North. I mean, I had plenty of, Alex came out of the Helms machine down in North Carolina. But I believe in the kind of conservatism that can win.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, right. An off election, but still the Senate races in 86 was a tough year for the Republicans. We had these young guys and Sims won and some congressional races people thought would lose. We did pretty well in in 86 and 88 that put us on the map. And Alex and I went off and we had a great run. We did a bunch of stuff. And then in the mid 90s, we had probably the only amicable split up of a political consulting partnership. We're still very close. He went off to do a lot. You see him on CNN. He's a big time Republican consultant. And I had a good run, particularly with governors, blue state governors. I worked for John Engler, my home state of Michigan, three-term win there. I worked for Terry Branstead in Iowa about his 40th term. We got a re-election there.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, we did some kind of fun stuff for these independent expenditure campaigns in the early 80s, but then it was the 86 campaign when Alex and I really officially, you know, got together. We were working for this senator, Steve Sims, out in Idaho that everybody thought was going to lose”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And one thing led to another. And they said, because it was low production budget stuff. All right, kid, make an ad and I didn't know what to do. So I called up this ACE producer who it turned out later had made one ad in his career named Alex Costellanos. And out of that came Murphy and Castellanos. We started making ads for these horrible, low-budget campaigns because nobody else would hire us, but some pack work. And we got lucky on a thing or two. And so I took a leave of absence my senior year. I gave up being yelled at and Russian every morning by Colonel Pirigoff, the defector who was trying to teach us Department of Defense Russian, you know, which way to the tractor factory. Would you like some nylons for a picture of that factory? And kind of ran away to join the circus of campaign consulting.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, luckily, it's an unregulated business. So I was going to Georgetown, I was in the Foreign Service School. I'd grown up in Detroit, and I thought, wow, am I going to wind up in the auto industry? Which was kind of appealing, but I was really interested in international relations and politics. So Georgetown was the place to be. I was involved in the College Republicans. I was all about politics. And I got this internship at the old knickpack, the National Conservative Play Collection Committee, which had invented the independent expenditure where a third group could run ads. And so one day they fired the ad agency and they said, anybody here know anything about advertising? And I had been like, you know, around a radio station a little bit in like high school. So I, of course, said, me, I'm an expert.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I own that until we lost the Retro Rise Super Pack for Jeb. Now I'm going to be a retired, formerly one of the great consultants, but I had about 29 winning statewide races, and that got me pretty established.”
2016-09-23 · Masters in Business · Interview With Michael Murphy: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source