YouSaid · the spoken record

Michelle Meyer

lines on the record: 96
first: 2015-03-08
most recent: 2015-03-08
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Shows up in my inbox. And through Bloomberg and through other types of blogs like yourself, you can get information. So it's out there.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Bank America is a very large organization, so the good news is that a lot of people do bank with us or have some exposure to Bank of America. And if you do, you can get access to our research on the well planet. I get stuff from you guys every day.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think one of the big questions that I was thinking is how do you monetize research? Research is extremely important. But if you're in a cost-cutting environment, how do you make it as valuable as you can? So I think we always have to keep that in mind. Keep that in mind is that at the end of the day, if you're a Wall Street economist, do you have to produce something that's going to be important and going to be relevant for your clients, both internal and external clients?”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Really fun, you know. Not everybody agrees, and I and I'm okay with that, and I want to hear where there's a difference of views, and I like the debate. I think it's healthy and I think it's exciting. Where is the industry going for economists on Wall Street? Well, I think you can argue that in general, the industry has shrunk. All of Wall Street has shrunk. So clearly, opportunities for economists on Wall Street has shrunk as well.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“About what That's a tricky one. Favorite part of the job, I think the amount of adrenaline I have while doing the job. So it's fast paced. It's fun. It's constant. You're in demand. People want to talk to. They want to understand what you're thinking. And that's really that pumps you up. So I'm excited to go to work. I feel alive. I'm in the office. It's great. No matter how tired I might be. So being on the training floor, being involved in the markets and being able to have conversations with exceptionally smart people is wonderful. So I love that. I love that about the job. I really enjoy the media aspect too. I like public speaking. I like, I enjoy being on TV. I enjoy being on the radio. I enjoy being able to communicate my views to the public. And hearing the feedback.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Perplexed by that. So the purchase patient rate matters because it tells you how many people are out there looking. So even if you have, you know, a stronger economy, if that healthier job growth encourages people to come back in the labor force, it makes it appear as though the unemployment rate is actually more elevated than it is. Now, if the participation rate falls, if you're people looking for work and of those looking for work, some of which are unemployed looking for work, obviously the unemployment rate has downside bias. So it's not just, and I think I talked around it a little bit, but the clear answer is that the unemployment rate is not just influenced by the number of unemployed workers. It's influenced by the number of people looking for a job.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It did really stabilize until last year, so there was further downside, and the unemployment rate fell faster than what we were predicting.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's one thing about Wall Street economist. You have to have good titles. And arguing the participation rate would pick up. It creates some stickiness to the unemployment rate. And that was not the right call. And in fact, the participation rate, that was around 2011.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It did. So right before the 2001 recession, the participation rate peaked, and it's been on like a gradual downward shift. It had some cyclicality around the 2001 recession. But then when this recession hit, it fell like it just collapsed. In my view at the time was it fell too fast and that there's room for cyclical advancement and we'd be able to see a rebound So we wrote a piece, you know, Let the late before be with you, arguing that the participation rate was going to pick up, and that would”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it went pretty fast. So it seemed like we were kind of primed for some stabilization and home prices. Now, did we call for 10% appreciation 2013? No, we were looking for something a little bit lower. But for 2012, just timing that turn, we were right. And we were in front of the game. And I remember I went on Bloomberg surveillance. I went Tom Keen's show the day we published that note. And I look back at that and Tom made a big deal out of it, rightfully so. Yes, he does. You know, home prices were bottoming. Michelle Meyer calls the bottom and home prices. And I remember feeling so uncomfortable about them. I was like, oh my gosh, what if we're wrong? And I tried to like pull back a bit.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That you had a buyer that you had a seller who was highly motivated and you had a buyer who was also very motivated. They were able to find that market clearing price, which meant a lot of pain, but that's been found. And we're now in a situation where inventory is low.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Back from that? Got a lot of pushback from it. Yeah, home prices were not going to rise. I haven't fallen enough. Why would they be stabilizing in this environment?”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Called the Biomonhome Prices, which we were right on, which was great. So March 2012 put out a piece saying home prices are bottoming now. And they did, and the recovery started. So we nailed that call.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's amazing. It will be a shock to our system at some point. We're trying to hold out as long as we can. The trade-off is.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You've access to everything else, which is at 24 7. But yeah, I think you do shop a bit differently for, I mean, for me, I live in the city. We have, you know, a doorman. You can buy whatever you want online. It ships there. Sit. Yeah, it's just the convenience is exceptional.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“People called it I mean, I don't know. It seems to be. I think the other issue is that there's been people staying close to city centers for longer. So if you're living in an urban area, then you don't have as much access to the mall. But you have access to everything.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mean, I think we are consuming differently, as we just talked about, which means you don't need as much brick and mortar and maybe you need more warehousing. Maybe you need more distribution and shipping. Drones, exactly. But you can't avoid technology and you have to embrace technology. And it creates winners, but it also creates losers in the way.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Up front to form a new business. And with difficulty getting home equity lines of credit and with a period of negative equity and low equity, that's probably made it a bit difficult for some businesses to form. I think maybe one of the other issues is just how a lot of industries has changed. So think about retail. Think about how much the market has changed in just the past 10 years. We went from an environment where it was very common to go to malls and to browse and to shop in person to one where technology has made it so easy to just take out your smartphone or take out your iPhone and click on an app and buy exactly what you need for overnight shipping free, which is amazing.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think, you know, one of the issues, and yes, I focus on housing, so maybe I'm always inclined to go back to it. But I do think part of it links into housing and to the equity issue. A lot of times new businesses are formed by withdrawing money out of your home. It's a personal loan. Or credit cards. So you finance it yourself and you put a lot of your own capital.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not only small businesses, but maybe even more importantly is new business formation. New business formation is absolutely critical to getting investment to pick up and to get hiring to pick up. And it's been a challenge for new businesses to form in this environment.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so I think part of the challenge has been that there's a lot of uncertainty about this business cycle. This has been the recovery of fits and starts. So that has made many corporations hesitant in terms of doing these bigger ticket item investments. But the large corporations, broadly speaking, should be prepared to do so. If you look at the health of their balance sheets, look at their ability to refinance debt at low levels. They're very sound and should be ready to go in terms of investments. So I hope that it's just a matter of time. Smaller companies have struggled a bit more in the past several years. They haven't had the same access to credit. That's a key driver, isn't it? It's a big driver.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so rather than saying our view is for 3% growth, you say our view is the economy will realize 3% growth, but the risks are that there's a higher probability of a 2% than a 4%.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that would go a long way in terms of communicating the views and helping market participants. And I do that. I think we all do that to a certain extent, but maybe to formalize it would be helpful.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Economist. So you give a forecast. You have to give a forecast. Here's where I see GDP growth. Here's where I see jobs. Here's where I see the Fed. But what's my distribution of risks? Where's the risks around that forecast? Are they leaning to the downside, to the upside?”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it'd be very helpful to have at all times some sort of modal distribution. Define that for listeners who may not be.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, of course. Of course. It's a much easier view to communicate. And I think we've learned from the crisis, though, because you look back at what occurred. And I think that we have to realize that, you know, disaster can strike again at some point. So I think there are lessons learned for the average person and for forecasters. There's this tendency to forecast some sort of return to equilibrium.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Wouldn't be outright disaster. A lot of people like to say there was froth in the housing market, not a bubble. So you look back and you think, oh my gosh, how did I ever think that? Look at home prices relative to income. Look at all the signs, but...”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Profession of economics. Yeah, I mean, listen, again, it's not perfect. I think we, you know, you do what you can with the data you have and with your judgment, but you're right. A lot of people missed it. They missed the crisis. I remember even sitting at Lehman Brothers, we had, we were working on his piece on the housing market. And I was working with our mortgage strategy team looking at the vintages of mortgages. So taking the assuming different default paths for mortgages that have been originated given their credit history. So assuming their credit history, what's the likelihood of default? And at the time we came up with exceptionally large numbers for foreclosure, but we had a conversation saying, oh, well, here are the reasons it's not going to happen because that was the view that, yeah, you can kind of smell that there were issues and you can have some problems.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And for those that have bold calls, you said Nori Oberbeani, for example, was making bold call that, you know, during the good times that they're going to end and they're going to end badly. At some point, you're going to be right with that call. And he was, but trying at a time. But he repeated it. Yeah, and that's hard. And it's hard to do. And there's always this tendency also to return to some sort of steady state, some sort of equilibrium because you don't know what kind of shocks are going to hit the economy.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, I mean, I think it's fair in the sense that there is this tendency to use what happened in the past to explain the future. So it's very hard to understand turning points. It's always darkest before the dawn, right? So it's very hard to say that you're ever going to be able to get out of whatever the cycle is. So when we're in a recession, we're never going to.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I do that. I don't forecast the market, but I do forecast the economy, and I always try to represent both sides of the argument by saying, you know, here's my baseline view, but here's what can go right and here's what can go wrong relative to that view. But when you ask that question, I always think back to this conversation I had with my grandfather. Who I adored. When I first started in the industry, and he said, breakout, he said, I don't understand. You all look at the same data. You all have the same information. Why are there so many different forecasts out there? I was like, You're right, but it's the way you interpret the data, and there's a lot of judgment that goes into it, and people have their own leanings and their own biases. So forecasting is a science, but Know it's also an art”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It came back. I mean, think about the unemployment rate fell sharply. That does a jobless games. It cures a lot. If you have stronger economic growth, if people have jobs Feel a lot bitter about what's happening in policy”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so now the question is, and this is a question always for policymakers, and this is where I think, again, going back to Krugman's arguments, there was a lot of pushback, which is policymakers are designed to smooth the business cycle. Certainly the Federal Reserve is. You're not supposed to allow the economy to overheat, and you're not supposed to allow the economy to fall into too deep a recession. So you smooth the cycle. But the question is, what is the best approach? Is it better to just not have a policy response, have a very deep recession, but allow for there to be natural clearing, and then you have a very rapid and robust recovery after a period of severe pain. And that's where there's the debate between free market views versus those that have more Keynesian and believe that there should be a policy response. And I think broadly speaking, the Keynesian views have won out.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They want the opposite direction. There's your counterfactual is here's what happens. That's the counterfactual to the other.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There wasn't enough stimulus, and maybe it wasn't, but who knows what the counterfactual was, but it was an aggressive response to an extraordinary recession. Certainly more aggressive.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, I think it seems like the crisis was a long time ago at this point, and it was. Seven years. The initial response after the crisis was extraordinary on the fiscal side as well. I mean, think about the ARA, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. It was a massive amount of money. About $100 billion.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There is, there is, and that's why when you think about going back to this idea of are the markets distorted and how do you really understand the signal coming out of the markets, there's a question about that because we've never had such accommodative monetary policy, not just from the Federal Reserve, but globally.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that seems to be certainly one of the themes of last year is everybody was expecting the 10 year to head higher. We can get to above 3%. That was very much the consensus view. And the exact opposite have happened. We got to a one handle briefly. And I think one of the factors that probably was underappreciated is what you just said, that there was a search for yields and for quality assets and with so much Move into U.S. treasuries because if you think about the yield and U.S. treasuries versus, let's say, German bonds, it's more attractive to buy U.S. treasuries.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Incredibly low. It's incredibly accommodating. So if all the Fed's able to achieve is to get the Fed funds rate up to 2.5%, then it means that there's something much weaker about the economy and that the economy can't handle higher interest rates. And that's what the market's telling us. The Fed is not saying that. If you look at what the Fed is projecting in their summary of economic projections, they say they can get interest rates to $3.5 or $3.5%. Three and three quarters.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh god, that would be dismal. But no, maybe a terminal rate two and a half percent or so. But think about two and a half percent Fed funds rate historically.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But because the fact that the equity markets are capturing large corporations, it's going to be indicative of what the economy is saying. And then I think in terms of the fixed income markets, in terms of the way treasuries move, that's very much driven by expectations for Fed policy. And one of the interesting observations today is that the market is pricing in an extraordinarily low path of the terminal Fed funds rate. So they're saying that the Fed, yeah, they may start hiking interest rates before the end of the year, but they're not going to accomplish that much. They're not going to get very far. 50 bases.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To a certain extent. Now, of course, how companies are doing a not just a function of their revenues and their sales, it's a function of just their profitability, so their cost cutting. So you can have situations where you have really high corporate profits, like in this cycle, for a period of time, it was a profits recovery because of the excessive cost cutting, but you weren't really seeing underlying economic growth. So there's disconnects”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, I think, so anything about the markets that for the equity markets, they're capturing the health of the major corporations in the country. So if investors are starting to see problems in these corporations.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Casts than there were the risks around that forecast. Because I think when you're in the markets and you're in front of a screen day after day, he's really hard not to get influenced by what the market is telling us today in terms of what it'll mean for tomorrow. Timing and understanding, identifying turning points is very hard to do, but to the extent that we can help with that as an economist, I think that's an important part of the world.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What is the role of the economist on Wall Street? That's a great question. So I think the way I interpret the role is that you're supposed to be a source of information to the sales force, to our traders, so internally, but also externally to our clients. So that means analyzing the high frequency data as it comes in. What is our expectation for the data? Where is it relative to consensus? What can go wrong? How do we interpret it once it comes out? Where are the special factors? So have real-time fast analysis on the high frequency data, but then also be able to paint a picture for the economy in the medium term and some of the risks even to the longer term. So you have to be able to remove yourself from the day-to-day volatility and the data and the day-to-day volatility in the markets and say, what do we really learning? What do we really know about the economy and what is our baseline for?”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. And he, his, I mean, clearly rational exuberance that went a long way. And he's had great calls both on the stock market around the tech bus and the housing market around the housing bust. But his analysis, his way of thinking, I think it's extraordinarily high quality and it's very interesting. So yeah, he would be high up on my list.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You find Well, I mean, I think Brianhardt and Rogoff, I think, was particularly influential in this cycle because their work was around how do economies cope and how do they deal with financial crisis and balance sheet recessions. So their work, I think, really rang true and mattered a great deal this time around. So there were a lot of lessons learned from their people.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He says things that, and he says in a way that other people won't say. And sometimes he's wrong, but a lot of time he is right. And he's saying things that other people are thinking, but they're not willing to put on paper on.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not stupid. Not stupid. So clearly he's an incredibly smart economist, but he is really passionate too. And whether or not you agree with his political stance, I think his passion and his ability to lay out a concise, interesting argument is fascinating. So I read him regularly. I really enjoy his blog.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Krugman at one of these dinners. Yeah, yeah, he is one of the economist here. I just find him to be exceptionally Smart, which is not a bold statement given that he is a noble prize winner. They're not giving him out to dumbness pretty much. Usually that's.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source