YouSaid · the spoken record

Michelle Meyer

lines on the record: 96
first: 2015-03-08
most recent: 2015-03-08
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“There was You can imagine Yeah, I think, listen, credit is a fuel for the economic engine. And if credit is tight, which it is now for mortgages, it will limit the pace of activity. And you have seen the pendulum swing to the extreme from a very easy market to one that's quite tight. And maybe it has been an excessive move, but there were a lot of changes that had to be made. And that process has been painful.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, if you can't withdraw money from your house to renovate, you have to have, and it's hard to borrow, you have to have cash up front. And a lot of households are still fairly budget constrained.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Financing is one aspect. It's not as easy to get financing for some of these other types of durable goods like appliances and such. You can put, you could take out a revolving line on your credit card, but the standards there are a little bit stricter than it has been for auto. So that's probably one factor. I think the other one is that for housing, yes, home prices have recovered, but you still have a number of homeowners that are either in near negative equity or kind of flat. And it's also very hard to extract money out of your house right now for these types of renovation projects. So the ability to get to do a cash out refinancing or the ability to get a home equity line of credit, those are much more restrictive than they had been in prior cycles.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, household formation is not even picked up yet. So we're seeing this increase in autos even before you get the rebound in house.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But also in auto's unlike housing, you've had financing come back and you've had financing come back pretty aggressively. So the ability to get leverage, the ability to spend, again, for autos, which is something that depreciated, you've seen a nice acceleration. And I actually think there's further upside for auto sales.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Prices. Why do you think that is? It's a puzzle. It could partly be that there's simply a lag between the drop and gasoline prices and spending. Consumers have to believe that it's a persistent drop in gasoline prices. And maybe can some consumers are also saving for bigger ticket items? Although when we...”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Underrated indicator obviously the jobs report every month is going to get a lot of attention and it is important. You have to smooth through it, but we have to look at it. It's relevant. I think retail sales is an important indicator. The consumer makes up 70% of GDP and the consumer is faring, I think, is really an important part of the overall story. It gives a sense of what kind of future investment we might need, what kind of hiring are we actually seeing, what's the quality of hiring. And what's been somewhat interesting to me recently is the past few months, consumer spending or retail sales have been soft.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Look at that. You're asking economists for their favorite indicators. That's hard. Which child do you like? Right. I only have one child. So there you go. That's an easy question.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, there may be some initial move higher, maybe some generation of activity from that, but I think it's quite temporary. Ultimately, what matters for home buying is income growth, not only today, but also for tomorrow. So expectations that income will remain positive and growing in the years to come. And then affordability, mortgage rates. But I think probably the most important factor is simply this idea of job security. So the labor market is arguably the most important thing for housing.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Percent a year might be a little bit high, but if it's something a little bit less than that, so it's even slower, the Fed is really gradual, and it's accompanied by stronger economic growth, and I think the housing market can handle it. If you have something akin to the taper tantrum, which was in summer of 2013, over 100 basis point move higher and interest rates in a two-month time, that shocked the housing market, and that was clearly negative. If something like that happened again, it would be a setback for the housing market.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's nothing normal about this economy right now or about the financial markets. I think there's been a lot of distortions. So yeah, so let's say the Fed starts hiking interest rates. There's liftoff and there's that step towards, as you said, normalization. Interest rates rise. I think if it's a reasonable increase in interest rates, a gradual rise in interest rates.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Normals 1 1 to 1 2 if you have normal headship rates I think the good news is that the millennial generation is a large cohort kids that baby boomers there's a lot of them and to your point many who have been delayed in entering the economy to a certain extent because of the weakness in this business cycle because of other challenges related to student debt and the such but over time these are going to be people who form households and we need to build to accommodate it”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We are the most recent data from the Census Bureau showed that at the end of last year there was a notable pickup in household information. The data is extremely volatile, so you have to kind of smooth through these quarterly swings. But for last year, by my estimates, we created about 800,000 households still below. What's normal?”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and that created a lot of distressed inventory into the market that had to clear. And luckily it cleared. And it cleared in part because investors found opportunities in buying out these distressed properties at deep discounts, some of which were converted into rentals. And that's created a floor for home prices. And now home prices have been recovering. They start to turn in early 2012. And last year we're up about 5%. We're looking for about 3.5% appreciation this year. So we've seen progress, but I still think that there's further upside. And really where the upside is, it's not so much for home prices, but it's really for construction. I think the level of our housing stock is too low to accommodate the ultimate growth in household formation and the population.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's where That's been one of the puzzles. I think the challenge has been that there was a lot of equity lost in the housing market. So people suffered severe home price declines. And that held back some of the churn in the housing market you had to get back into positive equity. We had a deal with an exceptional amount of foreclosures. Not quite 10 minutes.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In the economy today. Yeah, I mean, it seems like this has been a pretty old business cycle. So when you think about the number of years we've theoretically been in recovery, it seems like it's old. But in terms of progress made, you can still argue that it's fairly young. So when you think about the cyclical sectors of the economy, housing is one. Consumer adorables is another. Capital expenditure is another. We're still at levels as a share of the economy, which are historically low and arguably still close to recessionary territory. So I think it is the case that there's room for growth, there's room for expansion, there's been exceptional monetary policy support, monetary policy works with long lags. This environment of very low rates and high liquidity ultimately should translate to stronger economic growth.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, Lehman Research was number one in II for years. It was taking over by Ravi Matu-led research while I was there. And he was an incredibly dedicated, diligent. I mean, the content coming out of Lehman Research was exceptional. Right.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Long time, and you know, yes, there was excesses, there were problems, there were a lot of mistakes made, but there were a lot of great people there that were heavily committed to the company and to the markets. So I think that it was, you know, it was really hard. It was a really hard time for a lot of people.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I wouldn't know. I wouldn't know. I think that's the speculation. And I think that a lot of people at Lehman believe that was the case. People at Lehman Blood Green, I mean, there was a lot of loyalty. Sure. To Liam Brothers 140”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It wasn't until that Sunday night when it became clear that Bank of America was buying Maryland, not Lehman Brothers, which worked out okay. Which worked out fine for me in the end. But at the time was absolute panic. It became clear that we were indeed filing for bankruptcy. And I remember watching TV and seeing everybody go to Lehman Brothers try to clear out their desks on the view that maybe we'd be locked out on Monday morning. So, you know, after several glasses of wine, my husband, I went over to Lehman to try to clear my office and everybody was on the trading floor. And it was just surreal.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So Right, by the end of the summer, I think it became pretty clear that there were more severe problems with Lehman and sitting on the trading floor, I saw firsthand what our traders were saying and the sales force were saying people didn't want Lehman as a counterparty. So we weren't getting the trading flow. You were seeing serious issues in terms of the balance sheet as well. I think traders and Salesforce had an understanding that they were bigger issues. But then again, the backdrop was, well, who would let Lehman go under? Lehman Brothers, they would be a buyer. Bear Sirs went under, but there was a buyer and there was some, there was a savior. The likelihood that Lehman would be able to fall into bankruptcy, I think everybody up until last minute thought was a very low probability.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I think the initial view was that Lehman was different than Bear Stearns. Bear Stearns was somewhat unique. And although Lehman had issues, a lot of other financial institutions had issues, they were manageable and we were able to absorb the losses. I would say about a few weeks before the D-Day, the bankruptcy. That's September”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There was just a great deal of uncertainty in that uncertainty ultimately translated to panic. We all kind of had an idea that there were problems in the housing market, there were problems in the financial system after Bear Stearns went under.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But I did that, and one of the things that I realized very quickly is that I had a very large support network, many, particularly women stood up and said, you know, you are very talented and you should and will be successful and you deserve the recognition of managing director. So I had a lot of support from women across the business, but also a number of obviously men as well in senior positions. And it was a very enlightening process for me, the managing director process. It's a hard process. I can imagine. You have to have a network of supporters and”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it wasn't surprising because I had to advocate for myself. You always have to advocate for yourself. It doesn't just happen by accident.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Supposed to be a tough cookie, too. I think she's incredibly good at her job and she understands the business and she understands what it means to be an analyst. And I think she understands how to get appropriate balance. So seeing her have success has been really important to me. And it's also across the business. I can count a number of senior women at Bank of America, Marilynch, that kind of have done it all. And frankly, I now consider myself to be in that camp.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What's changed over the past 10 years? A lot. I mean, to me, I promise I'm not looking at your sheet. I think there's been much advancement and maybe it's simply moving from Lehman to B of A, but here at B of A, I have a number of senior role models that are women, the head of research, Ethan's boss, Candice Browning. She's an exceptional role model.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Are there unknowns, right? Are there things that are ultimately going to make it impossible for me to achieve success here because other women have not succeeded? And you don't know. Maybe it's because there are a number of factors for why that might be. But as a young woman starting out, I think it could be discouraging when you don't see other people.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think particularly for me starting out at Lehman Brothers, I felt that there weren't that many role models. So a lot of the senior management were men. Most all and even the mid-level, like the higher mid-level were heavily dominated by men. So it was hard to understand looking ahead how do you”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Discuss that a little bit. I stand by those words. I think oftentimes, and perhaps it's more so for women than for men, I don't know. I think it depends on the individual. But oftentimes you shy away from opportunities that are intimidating, that scare you, that make your heart sink. But those are oftentimes where you have the best career advancement. So one of the things for me was media. When I started getting opportunities to go on TV, I was actually still at Lehman Brothers. I was fairly new to this industry. I was fairly new to the job. And whenever a producer would call, I would be intimidated. I'd be like, oh my gosh, maybe the timing won't work out. Maybe I don't have to do it because it was so nerve-wracking to me. But that, I think, has certainly been one of the major things I've supported my career is visibility. And it helps me in terms of being able to communicate and being a more effective economist.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I think to a certain extent, again, being on the train floor, being close to the action, you have a better understanding of what's important and what our clients are talking about and what people want to understand so you get inspired by sitting on the trading floor in terms of getting out relevant research. But you're right when you have to read through papers and you have to actually put pen to paper, oftentimes you do need to remove yourself from the floor, which of course I do. I'll either go to a research floor or sometimes I get my best work done at night after I have dinner, it's quiet from eight o'clock to nine o'clock I can sit and write and I do.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it's, but you know, you get used to it in a certain extent, that buzz on the training floor makes you more efficient. And everybody else around you is picking up two phones and has five screens. So you're doing the same. And it's great. So the morning, I'm very much focused on what's happening in terms of the data flow, the markets, talking to clients, talking to sales and trading. The afternoon things will quiet down a bit. more client meetings so I might as well go to the research floor where it's a bit more quiet and I can write talk to the rest of the team and try to get our weekly publication out. Every week it's almost like having a homework assignment. You have to write a piece about what's happening in the economy, what's happening in the markets, what our readers might care about.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, we're now midtown. Yeah. But you're right. The downtown, you're absolutely right. It's exceptionally large. It's like a football field. Now it's a bit more manageable in that the way they separate the businesses, you can kind of.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. Which really helps because if I was just to stand up and try to shout, it would not at all be affected. You do not have a”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In the office. That's pretty good. And sit down, try to understand the data that's coming out for the day. Talk to the Salesforce, talk to the trader. So do the basic rap. I have what's called a hoot or it's like a microphone that I go over when the data comes out. Squawk by.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sure. So it starts early because the markets start early and there's morning meetings. We have to cover the data, think about what's going to influence. Define early. So define early. 6.45, 7.15. I'm in the office. Okay.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Hm, you know, I think what's great about being economist on Wall Street is that for me personally, I sit on the trading floor, I get to be in the action. There's so much adrenaline. The day goes by so quickly. So I get to think about the big picture. I get to do research. I keep up with the literature coming out of academia and out of the Federal Reserve banks, but I get to apply it immediately and I see how the market reacts to it. So I find that I have the best of both worlds in that respect.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Marilyn show. I'm once again a colleague of his, and he also was really influential in terms of me understanding what it meant to produce quality research notes on Wall Street, but also be short and to the point. So those were kind of the mentors in terms of strictly economics, but of course there's these broader bigger mentors as well in the industry.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Later, because you were right in the eye of the hurricane. Oh, I was. But I was fortunate enough to Berkeley as they stayed there for some time. And then Ethan recruited me back to work with him again at Merrow, which has been a great move for me. So, of course, he is clearly one of my mentors. I've learned a lot from him in terms of how to be an economist on Wall Street. And there is a lot to learn because it's one thing to understand economics in theory. It's another thing to understand in terms of what it means for the business and how to be a market economist. And there's two distinct things. Other early mentors, I mean, I think the economics team overall, I got to work with Drew Mattis, who's now economist at UBS. He was quite influential in my career. He really showed me the ropes. He taught me what it meant to be a trading floor economist, how to understand the data and how to interact with the sales force. John Shin, who was an economist at Lehman at the time, he's now in FX research at Bank of America.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Barclay Yeah, at the time it was hard to see how anything was great, but in retrospect, yes, that's exactly right. We'll talk more about the financial.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'd obviously have to say my boss then, who's my boss now, Ethan Harris. He was the chief U.S. economist at Lehman when I joined.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I applied to economic consulting firms such as NARA, for example, and I was at the end, I was between Naira and Lehman when it came down to it. And then I also would have loved to have gone into policy. And one of my regrets is that I actually didn't go to the Federal Reserve first. I think that's a great opportunity that I didn't get at the time. But I was lucky enough, fortunate enough to have an offer at Liam Brothers to join us a lateral hire in their economics group. So one thing I knew, one thing I figured out is that I loved economics and I wanted to do something purely in economics.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“State special That's true. And what I do now is much more macro focused. It's market focus. But what I was studying was micro. And I spoke to him and he advised, you know, go into the workforce, figure out what you want to do, figure out what you can do with the skill set. And then if it seems appropriate, come back and pursue a higher degree, but it's not necessarily the right path for everyone. And I think oftentimes when you're in school and you're studying, you get so focused on what that next step is for your education. Sometimes you forget, what am I actually going to do with this? What should I be doing with it? What am I good at? Where are my talents? So I took about a year after I graduated before entering the industry. And then I applied for jobs at Bulge Brackett, Wall Street firms only in their economics department, so not through the typical analyst class.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, I understand. I understand. You know, frankly, at the time, I didn't know what I wanted to do. I graduated from graduate school, and I actually intended to go straight through for a PhD. I had a wonderful advisor at school professor, Kevin Lang, who was actually a microeconomist focusing in labor markets. And that was my area of focus was labor economics and the microside, not the macro side. That's really funny.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, luckily I didn't have to have school in the summer because I had a lot of credits heading in. So I would have been able to graduate undergrad in three years.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Four years. So I started taking my graduate coursework, my junior year of undergrads. You can imagine how exciting my social life was my junior year. And it was a five-year program.”
2015-03-08 · Masters in Business · Bank Of America's Michelle Meyer: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source