YouSaid · the spoken record

Nathan Sheets

lines on the record: 67
first: 2019-07-26
most recent: 2019-07-26
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“So I think that the biggest thing I've learned is as one goes through these cycles, and this is true as an investor, it's true as a policymaker, you have to have faith in your instincts. At the end of the day, all the analytics are great. Bring them to bear. But I think ultimately at the end of the day, we have to trust our guts and trust our instincts”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My number one piece of advice is find something that you are passionate about. When I talk to graduates and people early in their careers, sometimes I feel like they're trying to turn themselves into the perfect candidate. The candidate that everyone will want to hire. That's not what I want to see. I want them to come in and tell me this is what I really care about. And if they really care about it, if they're passionate about it, then there are going to be successful in these careers, particularly in finance and policy, there are going to be a lot of weekends. There are going to be a lot of late nines. And if you don't fundamentally love what you're doing, it's going to drive you to distraction. You're not going to be as effective. Find what you love and what you care about.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, for fun, I have four kids. That keep me fully engaged and energized. I'm also very active in my church congregation. In terms of staying physically fit, about a year ago I came to the conclusion that I needed to do more in that department. And since I spent a lot of time on the treadmill, which actually I've come to enjoy and found to be a place where I can reflect and unwind.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think we would have had to do further argumentation inside the administration and say, are we for it or are we against it? We were closer to being against it, it was perceived as being fully against it, but we really weren't. But we'd have to decide or we forwarded against it. And I think probably a clean position would have been, look, for a number of reasons, we're not going to join, mainly political reasons. We're not going to join. We have these concerns, but you make your own decision. That would have been a cleaner position.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think you got to get it on a bumper sticker. So this administration has, you know, and I think they probably have answered the question, what are we trying to achieve? We're trying to break down barriers in China and make it fairer for U.S. firms to operate there.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There really is not a lot that we can do about it. We can slow it down, or we can support them and have it accelerated, but they're going to rise. And I think the big question is once they've risen, are they going to look at us as being their friend or their foe? Secondly, and this may be more on a personal basis, but I learned from that experience when you have a message, it's got to be simple. And we had a very sophisticated position that I think had a lot of analytical rigor associated with it, but I needed a thousand words to explain it.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So this is my time at the U.S. Treasury. I was part of the team on the administration that was managing U.S. policy regarding China's proposed Asian infrastructure and investment bank, the AIIB. We had concerns about this institution that it would not pursue good standards in its lending. And consistent with that, we expressed our concerns and lack of enthusiasm to countries across the world. But as you know, the Brits, the UK, joined the AIIB and soon thereafter dozens of other countries joined. What do I learn from this? I think I learned two things. One important policy implication is China's rise is going to happen.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that book has a very interesting argument in it, which resonates with me now because my son is going through the college admission process. And he shows where the Nobel Prizes in chemistry got their undergrad degree. And they are all solid institutions. But they all didn't go to MIT or Princeton. It is all over the map. And Gladwell then makes the argument that had they all gone to MIT, then most of them would not be Nobel laureates in chemistry, that there would have been someone else or someone's else in their introductory and early training that would have been better. Chemistry, and it would have discouraged them in their career, in their trajectory of ultimately great creativity so that, you know, where you go to school matters, but what really matters is how much you work once you're there.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay, let me give you another one. I think one of the most readable and interesting books that I've been exposed to is Outliers by Malcolm Gladwin.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. I was at Kitty Hawk last summer. Get out of here. Yeah, it's really an interesting place. So they weren't where they flew the thing”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Read continuing in that kind of time in history. Love to read about Teddy Roosevelt. Brilliant, brilliant individual. But in addition, really focused on getting things done.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I would say just continuing, I've read a wonderful biographies of Woodrow Wilson. Are progressive, and notably a progressive who is arguing for free trade because it would bring down prices for the masses. It's really extraordinary the way the free trade debate has evolved over the last hundred years.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I am a heavy reader of biographies. I really enjoy. Others have gone through in their lives, in their career paths and the like. I'd say along those lines, my favorite writer is probably Ron Cherno. He's written some absolutely brilliant economic biographies. And I think it's very, very best was his biography on Alexander Hamilton, which is you read it, it really is quite extraordinary that challenges that Hamilton was facing in helping Washington and others set up the Republic and how we face in various ways very similar challenges. And I think the churno just brings all of that to life and makes it very rich and fertile in helping us think, well, how would Hamilton respond to a global financial crisis? How would Hamilton have responded to a European debt crisis?”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I would say that the investors that are having the most impact on my perspectives are frankly the ones that I'm working with now. And a number of these folks are what I would describe them as is very balanced in their worldviews. They're getting all the information they can and they're responding to it in a way. I said, okay, we'll move a little here, relative value is a little more attractive. We're going to move there. They're never off balance. They're responding to what the world's throwing at them and seeking the best returns, always comparing one asset to the other.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“When I arrived at the Federal Reserve, I'd say two folks that had a big impact on me. One was a Federal Reserve governor who your listeners have probably heard of named Larry Meyer. Larry was interested in taking a very empirical view and using that to analyze where the global economy was headed. And another chap who was my boss, his name was Ted Truman. And Ted was intense and focused on how do we get the right answer and best serve policymakers. So I'd say those two individuals had a big impact on my early career.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The three key folks that I interacted with were Stan Fisher, Rudy Dormbush, who passed away some years ago, but was really big in thinking about how do we apply economics in the real world. And Olivier Blanchard, who is extremely brilliant and fertile mind. And every time I talk to him, I learn something new.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I would say it's that I just kind of wandered my way into economics and international economics when I was in college. I couldn't decide whether I was going to be a lawyer or go into business or being an economist. I took all the exams, all the interest exams, and finally decided, well, I'll do economics. And then in grad school, didn't know what I wanted to do, kind of looked around and international economics was an area where the faculty at MIT was great, but there weren't very many students my year. So I went there because I said, Oh, I'll have less competition getting a job. And everything worked out well. I was very, very fortunate to fall into international, which I really have enjoyed.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that's the problem in economics is in thinking about our recommendations, we are driven by what the data say, but the data only cover the past, which then makes trying to figure out what the next one is going to look like really hard. It says Yogi Barra said forecasting is really hard, especially when it's about the future. That summarizes my life as an economist”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It is a point of departure. It really gets into this powerful question of how far should you push theory. And it's good as a theoretical construct, but then from there we realize that there are a number of headwinds and other challenges our economies face that explain why we should be off it. But it's a good benchmark still.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So the Taylor rule basically says that in setting monetary policy, the Federal Reserve should look at the unemployment rate relative to some equilibrium or some trend rate of unemployment. And that should also look at the inflation rate relative to its 2% target. And if inflation is low and unemployment is high, then the Taylor role would suggest you should have a very easy monetary policy. And I do think it's fair to say that many central banks around the world have pursued policies in recent years that are much softer than what the Taylor Rule would suggest. But even so, I think if you talk to those central bankers that say, yeah, we're not really following the Taylor rule right now, but we like having...”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The increase in labor force participation that we've seen of late is an extremely constructive development. There's been more slack on the edges of the labor market than I would have expected, and then most economists would have expected. And I think what it's going to take to for this process to continue is for the U.S. economy to continue to grow at a solid pace and for us to see some further upside pressure on wages as we see that additional, those additional wage gains, that's going to be very attractive to workers on the sidelines and getting them back in the labor force. And once these folks are back in the labor force, they're developing skills and abilities. They're going to help drive the economy through the years ahead.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think in this circumstance with rates, policy rates around 2.5%, that they probably are going to need to see inflation at or probably a little bit above 2% before they seriously start thinking about more rate hikes. The flip slide is I think the other variable that they're going to continue to watch closely is the unemployment rate. And I think that as long as the labor market looks tight and the unemployment rate is falling, they're not going to think that they need to cut rates either. I think would require an increase, a marked increase in the unemployment rate before the Fed would throw it into reverse.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I think the Fed has handled the rate hikes quite skillfully. This has been perhaps the slowest tightening cycle in the history of central banking. We've moved a quarter percentage point every quarter. So one percentage point a year back in the days of Greenspan, they were going 25 basis points every meeting and they thought they were going as slow as they could. That's still twice as fast. So the Fed has gone very gradually. And they're now at a place where, you know, they think neutral is two and a half, three, something like that, where they're on the lip of a neutral policy. And that gives them the luxury of being able to watch and wait and see how some of these various risks unfold. Does China do better? Does Europe pick up? What happens with the trade war and so forth?”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I think that that is a very fair approach. I think more or less that's what central banks have been saying for generations. The problem with it is markets yearn for something more concrete. And if the Fed says, you know, we'll just see where the data take us, then the next question is, well, where do you think the data are going to take us? And so markets, markets are going to want more. But ultimately, the Fed does have to be data dependent. That even if they say, you know, we're going to be flat. If ultimately the economy surprises on the upside, they're going to have to hike. And if the economy surprises on the downside, they're going to have to cut. And for them not to act in the future because of something they said in the past would, I think, not be good policy.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I think this is one of the risks with having press conferences after every meeting that there may be times when Jay Pal is going to have to say something just because the question is asked, not because it's part of his preferred proactive communication strategy.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This is a very important question, and its corollary is does the Fed talk too much? And a concrete question is, you know, through every FOMC cycle, we hear a variety of voices from Federal Reserve policymakers, all the Reserve Bank presence are talking, various members of the board and so forth. And does that give markets more information? Does that allow investors to make better decisions and better understand what the Federal Reserve's going to do? And if you press me, I guess I'd say on balance, yes. That transparency and perspectives are helpful, but it's also important that the Fed not talk so much that it's saying things it's not really sure about. What people want to hear from the Fed is what is its reaction function, meaning as various economic events evolve, how is it going to respond? What does it expect about the future?”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I think that that is a very creative form of forward guidance, which the FAD has experimented, particularly under Bernanke, experimented with a lot of different forms of forward guidance. Typically, it's been more of the form, we'll keep rates where they are and not pre-committing to future rate hikes. But it wouldn't surprise me at some point in the future to see some central bank around the world implement a policy that had the kind of forward guidance you just described. Look, we're responding to what we believe is an extraordinary circumstance. We expect that it's going to go away. And as our expectations are confirmed, then we very well may be hiking rates.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think that there were some instances like 87 and after 911 where the Federal Reserve saw risks to market functioning and the capacity of markets to operate. And in response to that, the Fed did respond very, very, vigorously. Now that said, you know, the Fed was aware of what was happening in financial markets. And I think what I should say precisely is that the Fed under Greenspan was hesitant to try to”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Of trying to kill things preemptively, it's better to clean them up after the fact. We learned that central banks do need to think hard about financial stability and whether asset markets are overvalued. And I think that many central banks now have an implicit mandate. It's not part of their explicit responsibilities, but an implicit mandate to ensure financial stability. And they spend a lot of resources doing that now.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“From peak to troth. And the Fed did respond to that. And when 911 broke out, I remember being inside the building. People were very concerned about what that might mean for sentiment, which we've talked about and the economy, exactly. People inside the Fed. So there were reactions to that. And then I think Greenspan was also worried about trying to make sure that inflation expectations stayed anchored and didn't start to fall. But your comments evoke another kind of criticism of the Fed's policies through that period, and that is how vigorous should monetary policy be in responding to perceived imbalances in financial markets. The Greenspan Fed was loath to do that. And at the time, the argument was we don't know where the tops are. We don't know what's a bubble.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I think that, say, the dot-com recession, compared to what we had at the time of the Great Recession later in that decade, the dot-com recession did seem pretty mild. But when we were living through it, I don't think any of us would have described it that way.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So bizarre. It's an interesting historical feature the way our labor market has evolved. And as you said, in many other major economies in Europe and in Canada and elsewhere, it's dealt with very differently. And it is a drag on wages and a responsibility that the corporate sector bears. And I think you're right. for someone to come and say don't worry about that would be very welcome. Now the flip side of that is it means the burden of paying for it gets transferred. And so the German corporates don't have to deal with it, but the overall level of taxation in Germany is much higher, so the government is larger relative to GDP.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the answer to that is substantial amount could have gone into salary increases. And as you say, for many employees, healthcare is a very substantial part of their overall compensation. Now, we do have broader measures of compensation that would include healthcare and other benefits. And they also have been going up somewhat more slowly than we would have expected. Very much true that it's an enormous cost, an enormous source of overhead for U.S. firms that makes it less attractive to hire in the United States. But that alone doesn't explain this puzzle as to why wage growth hasn't been.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that the answer is both, that as sentiment deteriorates, that drags down the economy, but then as the economy gets worse, sentiment will respond to that. So it's very much a symbiotic self-reinforcing kind of relationship. But if you press me, what's the first mover? I think sentiment typically moves before the economic data.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So there's all sorts of theory about how equity prices or current expected value of future profits. And all of those things are important. What we're expecting for profitability, what we're expecting for rates, what we're expecting for growth. But the mapping is a very, very noisy one. I'd love to be able to say if you give me the economy, I know the markets, but I'd also need to know sentiment and a lot of sociological and psychological elements. So I would say macro is part of the story, but the best market commentators, the best strategists deeply understand something in addition to the macro theory.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I think the point here is the right hates taxes, the left love spending. And guess what? Both of those mean somewhat higher deficits. Where do we get fiscal restraint? We get fiscal restraint from the center and the political center especially at present is very hollowed out.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or more over 200% of GDP. And is there a good economic case that some economists have recently made when rates are very low to borrow and do infrastructure that might have very high rates of return? So all of those things are true. But at the same time, to say there's really no constraints on fiscal policy, I consider it just not prudent. It's driving too close to the edge of the cliff. We don't know exactly where that edge is, but I sure don't want to find out.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, my feeling is that modern monetary theory is dangerous. But also, and this is why it's particularly dangerous, is there is a grain of truth in it. We don't know what the limits are as to how much death the United States as a reserve currency can have. As you say, Japan has very high levels of public debt.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I'll still give the nod to monetary policy as being more important, but fiscal is increasingly giving it a run for its money, so to speak. In the short term, we've seen the power of fiscal policy in providing stimulus and supporting growth. In the long run, we have these very difficult issues of debt and deficits and how to manage those and what the implied tax rates are going to be. So fiscal policy is becoming increasingly important. It really strikes me as we think of these two pillars of macro policy how different they are in the way they're formulated. You have technocrats doing monetary policy and you have a very messy political process with fiscal.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so it means if you want a race, you've got to go slam your fist down on your boss's desk and say, boss, I want to raise. And that's an uncomfortable conversation that if inflation was taking off, I think people would probably feel more comfortable having it. Now, I'd say the good news for American workers is we are seeing some acceleration. Wage gains are now over 3%, which is less than I would have expected, but it's a little bit higher. And more importantly, we're also starting to see increased churn in the labor market. So people are leaving jobs and there are lots of jobs posted. And the way you get a raise in the US is to get an outside offer. And then you go to your boss and you say, Boss, I want more money. And the guy across the street is giving me a 10% raise.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If you had told me where the unemployment rate was, I would have guessed that wage growth would be more rapid. So I think this is a puzzle. It's a surprise. When I look at the economy, what do I think is going on? Yep, I think technology is probably holding down wage growth. certainly globalization is holding down wage growth. I think another key element, as I've mentioned, is that inflation expectations are well anchored. And so, if you really think that inflation is only going to be 2% and your boss offers you one and a half percent raise, you know, is it worth it to get agitated? And then that interacts with another key factor in the U.S. labor market is we have very little collective bargaining.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, this is something that I've explored. I've rebalanced the US sectors and said, suppose that we had less services and more manufacturing, more like what we had 10 or 20 years ago, what would productivity look like? And it would still be down. So it doesn't seem like it's the services rebalancing that's driving it. But that could certainly be part of it. I think another point that's important is there is some evidence that what's happened so far is that the leading firms in various industries have adopted a lot of these new technologies, but these new technologies have not yet diffused themselves deeply into various sectors, largely reflecting that investment has remained kind of lackluster, that a lot of this new technology, how are you going to get it as a firm?”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That looks pretty good. Now, underneath it, there's really a rather deep and important question, and that is that it feels like in the economic data suggest the productivity growth has slowed significantly over the last, say, 10 or 20 years. And the question is, on the one hand, we see these data pointing to slower productivity. On the other hand, it feels like the world we're living in is a wash in new technologies, miniaturization and machine learning and artificial intelligence and genomics and on and on and on. And the big question is when and if, but when do all of those developments find their way into the national income accounts and into productivity growth?”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's not terrible, right? That's not terrible. For a mature economy compared again to many of our international competitors.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, my baseline would be that growth this year is a little bit over 2% and the growth next year is fiscal stimulus rolls off. We'll be a little bit under 2%, but 2% is kind of trend.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Than a younger one. And if so, then that might mean you have slower productivity growth. So there are a number of concerns where these issues of debt and demographics interact.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In the first instance, it's private debt, but your point, you know, doesn't the Chinese government implicitly guarantee most of the debt in China is absolutely right. And so maybe you just think about that as a different form of public debt. But then the question is, as these debt levels rise, and as we know in the future, there are going to be fewer workers and fewer taxpayers. And how do these things interact with each other? What are those tax rates in 20 or 30 years going to look like in order to make payment to even service this debt? And will those tax rates have adverse implications for incentives to work? Alternatively, will an older society be less Prone to”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They really were. I'd say five years ago, there was a debate as to what was going on, why was growth slower. And I think all the other explanations have kind of melted away. And we just have to accept the fact this was deep. It hit our financial sector. There are significant headwinds to bank credit and lending. And probably also scars in terms of demand for credit in the corporate sector. Which is translated not only into somewhat tighter credit conditions than would have prevailed, but also corporates have been hesitant to invest. And all of that has meant a slower, slower recovery.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so a decade or so ago, Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhardt did some very interesting work where they looked at decades and decades of recessions and compared those that are driven by banking crises to those recessions that arise for other reasons. And what they found was that the recoveries from those banking crises were systematically slower and that the slower pace of growth persisted for up to a decade. And when you look at the US experience, it seems to match Reinhardt and Rogoff almost precisely. It really is quite extraordinary. Now, the one thing I would say this on the other side of the ledger is that this has been slower as they predicted, but this has also been an Extraordinarily persistent expansion. Where by July it will be the longest expansion in US history. So it's been slower, but also longer-lived.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. Is this late cycle or not The longer term issue that they're the most focused on is debt and demographics. What does this kind of adverse cocktail mean for our long-term performance?”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source