YouSaid · the spoken record

Nathan Sheets

lines on the record: 67
first: 2019-07-26
most recent: 2019-07-26
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“So, the interaction with our clients is frequent and intensive. I travel extensively across the United States and also globally. We have lots of clients in Europe, Japan, Asia, and elsewhere. In terms of issues, I would say the short-term issue that clients are the most interested in is how much steam does this expansion have left? Are we looking at a recession around the corner? It's been running for a while.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I feel like I learned global macro at the Fed and the Treasury during my time at City. I learned how to talk to investors about markets. And I'm able to draw on that background on a daily basis in my work at PGM fixed income. The new dimension is being closer to the portfolio allocation process and closer to the portfolio managers and getting a better sense of the real considerations that go into that decision of should we buy or sell a given asset?”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, as the Fed pursued quantitative easing, they were really pushing out the frontier of monetary policy. And Fed, the markets, and the rest of the world didn't know the full implications of what they were doing. And I think that's what kicked off some of these concerns and anxieties you described. But I think that Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen have been very effective at having their economic dashboard. And I would say at the center of that dashboard has been inflation expectations, where if they have one objective, it's to make sure that inflation expectations stay well anchored around 2%. And these various policies that the Fed pursued, quantitative easing and the like have pushed up inflation expectations some to keep them well. But there hasn't been any overshooting.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Would have been more like what happened during the Great Depression. And I think that if the Fed had been hands off, if they had said, that's not our responsibility, that we could have had great depression 2.0. And as it was, as I said, it was unimaginably terrible, but it could have been even worse.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, as it was, we saw the unemployment rate rise to 10%. I honestly believe that if the Fed had done nothing and had just waited for Congress, we could have seen the unemployment rate twice that high.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, when I think about what a different path of policy rates might have looked like, suppose you compare it to a benchmark like the Taylor rule, the Fed was a little bit softer than the Taylor rule, but in my mind, the misses are a couple of rate hikes and a little bit in timing. It doesn't seem like even if we think there should have been a more vigorous monetary policy response, that the difference between what they did and what one might envision was large enough to explain the imbalances and problems that erupted in the economy. My feeling really is that the mistakes were on the regulatory side, on the governance side in boardrooms amongst managers, amongst traders. I mean, there's a lot of blame to go around for the global financial crisis. But I just don't think that”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Crisis. I think the Fed again has done a pretty good job keeping inflation expectations well anchored and supporting growth in the US economy. When you look around the world, we can't say things are growing gangbusters in the United States, but we're doing better than Europe and Japan and many others.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly, exactly. And the Fed was not unique, the Fed was not alone, but I don't see I can give the Fed more than a B. Now, during the heat of the crisis, a vigorous response was absolutely necessary as we were sitting in the Fed's building and those terrible facts were emerging. It reminded me a bit of the Jack Nicholson line, you can't handle the truth. The truth was terrible. And Bernanke and Geithner and then Paulson at the Treasury, they just worked through this and had a set of responses. I would give the Fed an A for that period. Lehman obviously failed and no one saw the consequences of that. I think they were going to let somebody fail at some point. That's why I don't give them an A. And then frankly, since the financial...”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I'm probably a little biased. I would give the Fed, I don't know, a B for pre-crisis. And I think the criticism there is not about monetary policy, which I think was about right. But the Fed didn't do what it could have done in the regulatory space and allowed imbalances in the financial system.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I was at the Fed for 18 years during the entirety of the time. I was in the Division of International Finance. During the first 14 of those years, I held a variety of roles. I mentioned Russia, and I was following emerging markets in Japan and so forth. During the last four, which started in 2007, I was the director of the International Finance Division as the global financial crisis emerged and had the opportunity and the responsibility to work closely with Ben Bernanke and the board and others in trying to respond to that terrible set of economic conditions.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The second major issue is the global financial crisis. So China, the big structural issue, the global financial crisis is the big cyclical issue. But the bottom line, and as it pertains to the international monetary system in particular, is that notwithstanding these two big shocks, the role of the dollar and the centrality of U.S. markets has remained largely intact. The dollar is still.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think so far more deflationary or disinflationary. Most of those folks had lower wages than Western workers, and I think that's put downward pressure on wages throughout the world over the last 20 or 25 years.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“During the 25 years when I've been a professional economist, the global economic and monetary system has absorbed two very large shocks or changes. I'd say the first one has been the ongoing integration of China From a structural standpoint. Edition of one and a quarter billion Chinese into the global economy has been significant. And we're still dealing with the implications of that.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Most of those are the Central Europeans, the Czech Republic is doing very well. Slovakia is doing well. Kind of the next rung, you've got countries like Bulgaria and Romania, maybe not quite as well as the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic, but they're proceeding. Russia, as you say, continues to struggle. And frankly, I think history will have a judgment as to whether we had opportunities there to help the Russians more effectively than we actually did. And then many of the former Soviet republics continue to struggle. They have very low levels of per capita income and have a significant distance yet to go before they're really part of the global economy.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The Federal Reserve for me, especially in those first years, was a vigorous postdoc. Really? It allowed me to take the theory. And as I said, apply it in practical ways to real world issues. So my first assignment was to follow Russia and some of the other transitioning economies, Poland, Hungary, and so forth in the mid-1990s, when they were transitioning from a centrally planned system into market-based economies. And it was very exciting to see the interplay between politics and policy and economics and sociology through that period.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I envisioned, I envisioned public service. My first job was at the Federal Reserve. But I'm also, you know, I think a practically minded guy, at least as practical as you can be, and still be an economist. And I was interested in applying these kinds of principles in a private sector context as well. So I couldn't have predicted the path or how things would evolve. I've been very fortunate in the opportunities that I've had. But I did very much want to do qualitatively these kinds of things.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it would have been impossible to foresee how things would evolve. But coming out of grad school, I did want a career in practical economics. I wanted to take the theory that I had learned and apply it in a way that it might actually make a difference in the lives of people.”
2019-07-26 · Masters in Business · Nathan Sheets Discusses Fixed Income (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source