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Nicholas Glinsman

lines on the record: 119
first: 2023-05-18
most recent: 2023-05-18
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“And there'll be a code for Block Works for you. If they contact you, there'll be a code. You know one of the codes already. Yes, there we go.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I would say that the Daily, particularly at the rate we've agreed with you is what are we looking at? We're looking at. seventeen dollars thirty one a week what are you paying for newspapers or various alternative search and you know we're right at the front line you know we talk to the big institutions we don't necessarily convey their views but where we hear something interesting it gets reported and we're always looking at particularly now and probably for the next three to five years you've got to look at you've got to consider investing as a risk management process risk can make money but you've got to manage your risk and that means you've also got to accept that there's downside to it so that's what we're trying to minimize is inform people as to downside but at the same time allow them to let the outside trades run okay so i mean right now big trade for anybody who can do it as long dollar against the uh chinese one”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Some of the institutional snippets get onto the daily. I view that the daily as an institutional level daily commentary For everybody, whether you're an institutional, whether you're a registered investment advisor, whether you're a private small private family office or a retail investor.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Work in terms of people don't mind it not being before the bell, they don't mind it not being before eight o'clock it's been defined by somebody as their go-to piece and between 9 30 and 1030 and we're going to read it because it usually formulates opinion market opinion actionable ideas we'll when I talk about actionable ideas we're talking about stock beta and stock index beta and stock alpha sector alpha macro beta I guess you can have macro alpha but I always find that hard to define and risk right and risk management hedges and those hedges could be like we did in January when we warned of a liquidity crunch credit crunch in March April you know we said look everybody was short the treasury market looking for higher yields put on a hedge that gives You have exposure to yields dropping dramatically.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's some observations from the markets the opening section looks at what's happened overnight or opening US data that comes out and what's the reaction, what you expect. Then we look at what we feel should you should be watching out for in the markets, both directionally and risk management-wise. We bring in some geopolitics because we had an article Monday on the Turkish election that's relevant. It's relevant people trading EM. And we do in between our big pieces for the institutional, we put in some updates. Now, the daily goes automatically to the institutional client subscribers, but this daily comes out between, I would say, 9 and 10 o'clock New York morning. So we allow the US data to be released. So we've got a full data update globally, and we can react accordingly. And it seems to”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's negotiable. And in fact, what's happened is this current paper which has taken quite a long time because it's involved a lot of discussion and discussions externally came out of a request from a client. More than happy to pay extra, so on and so forth. So these are informed, long form, deeply researched papers. And given Harold's background, people should be very comfortable at our source of information are very solid and very significant. With regard to the daily, we Is an old product that I brought with me from a previous life. It's looking at each day.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, the institutional product, they get Now, this may be a wide margin between one and four reports a month. Over the last, the recent month, we're on a one report, but it was specifically asked for by a very interesting client. And we know it's going to be very useful in the finance and corporates and the C-suite sector. And it's the follow-up to our reverse CIFIS paper and going into much greater detail of the trends and what's going to happen in the future and how you should be taking action now. Otherwise, you may get caught. Taking action now, it can be exemplified by GIC pulling out of private equity investments in China. They're probably the most successful investor in China, almost knowledgeable. And with that, we will be available once a quarter for a chat. Now, if you want consulting over and above that,”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And if all this disappointance, if political ideology hits the Chinese economy further and in a really bad way, How strong is she could he survive, or could there be something that displaces him? But that's further down the line.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And you've got Canada, you've got Mexico, you've got Japan and South Korea. They're all there. Trump pulled out, but in the end, that will probably be the US should go back into that, but that depends on politics. And in fact, with CPTPP, because you've got a free trade association, you've got to back door into the US market anyway via Mexico and Canada, which the British were very excited about. So we're going to split into... Trading blocks that will be inflationary to an extent until the domestic resources reshored. Deglobalization is done, is coming. That's it. Globalization is finished. And the question outstanding is a couple of questions outstanding. Which countries will join China over and above Russia? Fighting against US rules based.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Reverse Cyphus will come as an executive order. It will be followed up probably over the next year and a half by congressional legislation, which will wider scope and be more restrictive. And if you're in the financial markets, the trade to put on when reverse CIFIS comes in is to be longer dollar against yuan using the offshore CNH. We could be short some dollar proxies, China proxies rather. And the world is splitting into two. At least two trading blocks. Maybe there's another trading block in Central Europe or in the Far East. And I think the Chinese”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, it's a practical situation given the Ukrainian war. It would take years for them to. Reestablishment. I mean, they have got the second biggest nuclear Arsenal in the world, but it's very different having those pointed at the points.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's a book talking about the history of Vladimir Putin and how he came to be president from having been an underling to the mayor of St. Petersburg. And it's supported by the St. Petersburg KGB was it. But the basic principles upon which they took over the presidency and they gained more power after his re-election and the Yeltsin family moved away was off the principles of the Russian Orthodox Church and the white Russian community, particularly those based in Switzerland. Principles are looking for Russian Empire. So how is it consistent that Putin has created Russia as a vassal state to the Chinese? I just find that incompatible. And that's his closest ally. I said”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The law can change day by day. Do you have access to your money? If you go into the domestic market, not necessarily. If you're a foreigner going into the domestic market. These things change. So, yes, we think it's going to get there will be a split into trading blocks. I'm very interested to see who goes with the Chinese. And I tell you why. Here's a book recommendation, Putin's people.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Totally skeptical Listen, our view on the dollar is, apart from the economic arguments against de-dollarization, the dollar has earned the trust and people say, well, they confiscated Russian assets. You're a private individual or you're a private firm. You have law, common law, common law prevails in the US. It prevails in the UK. It's the law of finance. It's the law of property rights. So yes, that's where you go. If I was, I know one major bank with quite a lot of exposure to the Far East, one of their most senior people is saying we have to focus on Anglosphere, where we know we've got our rights protected by the legal system. That legal system is common law, law of finance. So to us, that's the biggest plus of the dollar. Your alternative is to go to a UAM-based system. You don't know what the law is.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Do that, even though I may have to be very careful in the future of stating anything negative on Brazil. They've got something going through Congress that is a real challenge to freedom of speech. But it's very hard for the Chinese to impose. These exchanges of yuan for exports is a barter system. It's all at the margin. It's a barter system. If the Saudis get paid for oil, some of its oil exports in Yuan. They want to buy a solar panels, but they can't because the Chinese won't export anything. They need them. What are the Saudis going to do with the yuan? They're going to sell them for dollars. Much easier. So”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, I know. It will get worse. We are splitting into trading blocks, deglobalization, decoupling, nothing stopping that for the time being because you've got two powers. You've got the US rules-based order and you've got another power. That economically is very powerful, wanting to break away and create an alternative to the US rules-based world. So far, it's got Russia, for sure. It's got somebody here in Brazil talking about it. A positive fashion.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It could ultimately have an impact on geopolitics because if Chinese economic growth really disappoints, how stable is Xi's position?”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Didn't happen okay Japan so the real estate bubble was absurd the risk on the real estate bubble was picking your your chart your opportunity the levels to get short the Japan but the minute that burst you knew that there was going to be a long period of stagnating growth we didn't know how long it was going to be and that's a comparable That's the good comparison with what China's going through and we wrote this article in this the latest edition of the International Economy magazine which you can find online We're looking at China is looking at a lost decade or more. She is an expert in how the Soviet Union fell. Again, politics, not economics. He should have been studying what happened to the Japanese economy.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. But when they stop these things. It has implications in the domestic US market or the domestic Australian market. South Korea, they were trying to break one of the supermarket chains in China is owned by the South Koreans. And there was a buyer strike. And that was orchestrated by the government. And that was when the South Koreans took delivery of the Saud missiles, I think. The Chinese can express their displeasure in many ways, but was getting worrying now for foreign participants in that economy is the ability of the Chinese to use the security apparatus, its equivalent of the KGB, reports directly, now reports directly to Xi to enforce the edicts from the center. It's not a good situation. And if you look at the history of centralized economic management, it was bad enough in Russia. It was hard enough.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“These sorts of control features and adjustments. I mean, they're importing Australian coal again because they need to. But when the coal ban was on in Australia Peabody energy and the Americans exported to their hearts content”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It is in the old world. We have restrictions in China retaliating. I mean, the interesting thing about the agricultural cleaves is you're looking at China has 10% of the world's population, but only 10% of the arable land. Edit from above from the centralized government is they need substantially more soybeam. So there has been arable land, your planting soybean, that's what you're doing. And that's where the cops are checking up. And they've also shifted their exporter of choice from US to Brazil”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, it seems to me, okay, let's get actionable on this in the financial markets. Sure. It seems to me. Part from the economic rationale, you got to be long dollar against the Chinese one, the offshore. So USD versus CNH. And you know, we're just skirting below seven right now. So the data today has had an impact. So $6.99.70. I suspect we go and retest that 740 high and break through because the Chinese, if they're not getting the demand from domestic consumer, how are they going to get the demand to boost the economy and keep the population happy? Exports. You need a lot cheaper you aren't than where we are now. So we could see an adjustment to the CFETS, we can see it break above 740, which was late last year. That has implications. That has deflationary implications, obviously.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's something I will say of what I've seen of congressional talks about China, the Republicans and Democrat, some congress people seem utterly united on the topic that something should be done about China in a way that I haven't seen Republicans and Democrats aligned on pretty much my entire life.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exactly. So obviously, I mean, the initial intent was to before G7 with all members of the G7 having already been briefed so they could have a discussion and get general agreement. Those briefings would have already taken place anyway, but we suspect it's after G7. But going back to the election cycle in 2024, between now and 2024, all this is going to get higher intensity. Congress is quite determined to do legislation on this, and legislation will be wider and more restrictive.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. So we have to get used to this and we'll just maintain business harder and harder. The question is, can the Chinese create an alliance? Well, interestingly enough, probably not with countries that have coastal exposure to the South China Sea. Everybody's got even the Philippines where Marcos Jr. Wanted to be quite pro-China. They've got this problem with the fishing. And the Chinese Coast Guard attacking the Filipino fishing boats off in the EZ, the economic zone, which I think is 12 nautical miles, off the Philippine coast. So they're in their own waters and they're being, shall we say, man-handled by Chinese Coast Guard.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Historically at that height, I mean, no, it wasn't. It was an espionage balloon. So it just, it's problematic. I mean, retaliation, let's look at Lithuania. No imports, no exports, no trade at all with China because it allowed Taiwan to open a representative office.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So it's all heating up, and that the key point is every action by the US will be met with a retaliation. And they probably got a list of stuff they want to do as they decouple themselves, which will appear either like retaliation or completely unreasonable to foreign entities there or planning to go there or doing business with, it causes the break. It's just one of those problems that will intensify. I mean, it was quite amusing. Reaction to the Chinese balloon Well, it was obvious what it was. Everybody knew what it was. All the foreign papers were saying exactly the same thing. The Chinese, you know, we wanted back. It was a weather satellite”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think, I mean, I've been there once. I don't think I used to like Hong Kong. I've been to the mainland once. Don't think I'm going back to either place again. Not because I've done anything bad, but because publicly critical of what the Chinese are doing. And that probably doesn't go down too well. It's very risky. And now the State Department, I don't know whether you saw this a couple of days ago, issued a travel advisory about going to China for American citizens.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I think that will be an increasing path certainly for American companies because their executives are in danger. In danger, as reverse cyclist goes through, the EO and as Congress starts to act on legislation, the Chinese will retaliate, either creating legislation that allows them to go in. A US consultancy firm and then arrest six of the employees. Because they were doing due diligence, it will get worse. And, you know, we've seen it with other countries. When the daughter of the CEO of Huawei was arrested in Canada, what did the Chinese do? Arrest two Canadian diplomats. There's many examples where they've done that, tip for tat.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's something that goes against the domestic. But the point is that pulling the price data away, that's all part of this Data can't go out. They want to control all the data, which goes back to the centralization, goes back to the espionage law. They're closing things up. They're making it harder to do. And you can see that by some of the comments from the American Chamber of Commerce. They're saying This is problematic for foreign companies. And you continue down this path. Not only are you going to see less interest in Foreign companies coming in and engaging, you're going to start to see foreign companies come out. Okay? And I think that trend is already, I mean, Ford are now pulling their EV manufacturing efforts in China, closing that down. Stalantis, which Ens Chrysler, is out Out of China.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Investing in Chinese government bonds, isn't some of that money going to the PLA? The military? Got to fund some of the budget. And we know that the Chinese debt-to-GDP ratio is pretty high now, and they're desperately seeking foreign investors without making themselves very popular with the foreign investors. But take...”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But there's also another area where you should be a little bit concerned about investing in China, and that's the bond market. We now no longer have price transparency. Means there's one price market maker, and that's the Chinese government. So even if you're buying through Connect and you're buying offshore, when you go to sell, because we've got nowhere, you know, Mint is no longer doing it, the three big companies that were providing price data, you can't get an Bloomberg, I don't believe, let me just double check. So you don't know where it's trading anymore. Can hear where it's trading, but that makes me reticent one to be trading directly with Chinese counterparties. Two, I think there's a possibility that could be down the road in the reverse Cyphius, the congressional side, because”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, private Private equity and venture capital obviously under restriction, but this due diligence problem and the attack on the foreign consulting firms to do normal due diligence. Has a wider implication. Okay, so one suspects that. Even those that invest in some of the secondary markets will be reticent to do so now. Then there's another thing.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But you're seeing moves against that. The edict from above. Have more children. They're not having any children. So it's a poor situation that's been driven by the politics. And I think they've probably lost touch with certainly the youth. One would expect that to be problematic in the future.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Looks like that may be the appropriate phrase for right now a dead cat has bounced because the data that's coming out, and I think you may have seen it in one of my dailies this week, the data is very poor on China, very poor in China real estate. So that's going to be a dampler for the domestic consumer. And then the other thing is the white paper protests indicate that there's not much desire to get married. There's not much desire to revalue your parents' house. There's not much desire to have children. And again, all of those aspects would boost consumption”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They've stopped tightening their grip. I wouldn't say it's a loosening of the grip. I mean, Jack Marr is now teaching in Japan. You would want Jack Maher involved in helping the economy, wouldn't you? Huge success, but huge company that's going to be split into six. That's somebody that even Trump and Biden would both call into the White House and seek their advice if the economy in the U.S. So it makes, in that respect, makes no sense. Then in terms of the consumption side, so we felt that it was going to be a bit of a damp squib going forward. But not only have they taken a huge hit to their own balance sheet. If you look at the real estate market, everybody says, oh, well, it's bottomed. No. Last month it's starting to fall again That phrase in the markets, even a dead cat can bounce”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because where youth graduates would veer towards tech companies and edute. They're not hiring anymore. They're doing quite the opposite. You're basically getting a skills mismatch whereby outcomes, graduates, they're too skilled to do blue-collar work and there's no white collar work available.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Youth unemployment situation with another 11.8 million graduates hitting the workforce. That's also another issue that's going to be problematic for them.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Up until recently, if you, you know, this is disappointed one. And I'm a great student. And Richard Logic tells you that the people that are going to spend money in consumption in China are those people that own their own houses, apartments, whatever. They're making a decent living. Unfortunately, those people have taken a massive hit on their real estate, whether it's one house or more, a massive hit from the bursting of the biggest bubble in history. So from our perspective, dampens consumption. And if you look at it Even the consumption side hasn't hit expectations. And those expectations had the benefit of very poor comparables. So it's all falling short. The other thing that I would suggest is this.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I know you are. I'm just putting a point on that. The propaganda from Chinese state owned media is go fly, go take a vacation. It is the George W. Bush go to the mall to help the economy on steroids. And I think China's track record of telling their citizens what to do and Chinese citizens complying is quite a good track record”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Especially if you were a Ukrainian, you were in real trouble under Stalin. I'm not using Stalin in that sense of a comparison. I'm using Stalin in terms of centralization of the economy. Yeah, yeah.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Nick, what do you think of the Chinese, for lack of a better word, propaganda about consumption? It's not my understanding that Stalin's vision was one of abundance. It was one of a quality did not imagine his subject, Soviet subjects to, you know, have two cars, be able to fly from”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In China, yes, but it's been a lot of finance in China has been based on the Western model. So there was an edict that came out a few weeks ago, no bonuses. Bonuses are no longer permitted. And that included the foreign branches, right? So it strikes us that It's a very dangerous thing from the point of view of the economy and the impact on the world economy, where in China goes political ideologue over and above economic pragmatism.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Actually, I mean, you know, Harold came up with a very good phrase, China is not only decoupling from the world, it's decoupling from itself. allowing entrepreneurs and private enterprise to flourish. Clearly, that's God. And I think from what we hear, finance is the next shooter drop anywhere in terms of where's the next tech. It's going to be in finance. That's where they're going for.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's according to Mark Warner, head of intelligence on the Senate committee, Senate's head of intelligence. He saw all this beginning to occur in 2013, at the beginning of Xi's term. Now, you've got set up specifically the house set up, the House Committee on China. It's led by somebody who is a very intelligent guy that should not be discarded. And I think Mike Gallagher. And I think he will become... Leader in foreign policy, particularly with respect to China. So, you know, these things are big changes in the US approach. After Clinton allowed China into the WTO, it was fair game, right up until Obama. Obama did nothing about the islands that were being converted in the South China Sea. Big mistake, right? They were initially, it was said. It's going to be for fishing. But it wasn't, was it? It all became very military”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“These sorts of things are quite disastrous for that sort of system. So he will continue because he's shown that political ideology trumps economics. And if you listen to Mark Warner, he will say that It became explicitly clear that all Chinese company's first obligation is to the CCP. The Chinese are trying to oblige foreigners. Entities, their foreign branches, whether it's finance, whether it's manufacturing Have the same obligation, first obligation to the CCP, not to shareholders, not to customers. That's quite a break and a significant break from Wait is to in the West. So that's Is absolutely Chinese national security preferences and that affects who wins the AI race. That affects Satellites Synthetic biology, advanced energy, EV, alternative energy.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This clampdown of foreign consulting firms, that's really worried the American Chamber of Commerce. And what's also worried, the American Chamber of Commerce is This imposition of CCP member on all these private companies, including foreign companies. So there's an effort by She to break the American rules-based world. The interesting aspect is go back to the Polybureau where he took out all the economics guys, Liu Hu, Li Qichang. They're out. So, what we are seeing is political ideology trumping. Economics, because the economy isn't doing well, we've seen that. Zero COVID was a disastrous policy. And, you know, I mean, youth unemployment got a new record high today in China of 20.4%. There's another 11.8 million university students graduating in the summer.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This espionage law, such as CCP member is integrated into all private companies. So this decoupled thing from American rules based order to a new Chinese-led order. Now, that's what the BRICS Plus is, but that's a very dysfunctional group. So, the question is can he pull this off? When you see development of new Chinese laws and regulations and the state security has to enforce them, that's part of the centralization. And I'm not using Stalinism in a political sense. I'm saying if you know your history and if you don't, Stalinist was very central. Stalinist system was very centralized. And if you try to do something innovative or something different, Security forces will come right down on you, and the head of the security forces at that time is Baria. So you're going to see China”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“burnt down by fire. So you've got these agriculture, and that's 80,000 more. So there's obviously a lot more already there. So they're controlling agricultural production. This is all very Stalinist. So when I see people say, well, she is a Marxist, no, he's actually a Stalinist. He's a particular brand of Marxism. And if you recall your history, Stalin was very centralized and very controlling. And it was quite... Was not a good place to be, you know, if you got on the wrong side, goodbye. So the primacy of the whole she situation is for national security and independence from the US world order. That is where China is decoupling. So if we go back to that chart we've just looked at, that was the US charts. We're just finishing off the Chinese. You see, two US flags.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, no, no. I think I believe it was in Chinese law. It was definitely an announcement by Xi. So, you know, if you're sitting there with Tesla, for example, as a CCP member on his local board. Ford GM, Ford is beginning to pull out the EV market in China and bring that all home. You've even got now, this is the interesting thing. I don't know whether you read this. 80,000 new agricultural police are being employed, otherwise known as crop cops, because she and the centralized powers that be want to make sure that the farmers are producing what the government thinks is best. So they want more soybeans. So there were pictures on the internet of”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT