YouSaid · the spoken record

Nicholas Glinsman

lines on the record: 119
first: 2023-05-18
most recent: 2023-05-18
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Agreed. As I said earlier, this is slow money. Pension and insurance company is very slow money. The time to shift was basically ahead of the pandemic. Because it was not really, you wouldn't have expected a shift from, there was a trend to move out to greener pastures from your own personal residential side, but there wasn't a shift of working from home. There was a casual Fridays became casual week, fine. But there's no shift about allowing people to work from home. The time or every Friday or two out of five days a week. That's happened. And problem is getting them back in. From what I hear, Goldman had pretty much got them back in. I think J.P. Morgan's getting close.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's a little tough. I agree with you. I agree with you there. But what I'm saying is... You're a big fund, you know, if you can shift out One sector of commercial real estate because they should have all their expert advisors, internal and external. If you can shift out of one into another. Also, the other area that's doing quite well is hotels. So, you know”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You've got to try and find factory space. That's the commercial real estate that, in my mind, has got massive upside. If there was an active market in Mexico, you probably would buy Mexican factory space. But certainly in the States where You know, the southern states and the states where the Chips Act have focused on, you want to buy And if you can get your hands on it, but it's near impossible unless you're actually going in at the equity or the private debt level. But upside there, because there probably isn't enough. Right.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What they had to brand, you know, there's so much brand new office space being built, they'll move in, they'll take a little air space as more people are working from home. With all the latest, greatest features and green, and they become green compliance. What happens to all these old buildings? Value collapses. And those old buildings are primarily where a lot of the exposure in the secondary market, be it direct equity, direct lending, or CMBS, resides. Now, that is structural. It's not cyclical. Now let me spin something optimistic out of the commercial real estate market. Because of the trend toward the decoupling trend and the trend towards reshoring and onshoring and friendshoring.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They're identical, but what happened in the UK is it was a multiplicative situation. It just kept rolling on until it didn't. And that's the risk in the US. It rolls on until the last weak link gets done in the banks, the regional banks. But there's this big shadow over the private market, the shadow banking market. And we don't know. We've seen Blackstone gating, right? That's not a long term solution, but they're so big it probably doesn't matter to them. There are clearly issues and those issues have got to play out before we get any resolution. And I think what's interesting about the office side of the commercial estate is it's not cyclical. This is structural. It kicked off with work from home. People haven't come back. And you're seeing users of office space move from”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I go back to the piece we wrote which had a follow up to the credit crunch article within January. We wrote the piece about the secondary banking crisis in the UK in the early 70s where we said you would the comparison was fantastic. Started off as a secondary banking crisis and then within months which created the lifeboat by the Bank of England. But within months it turned into a commercial real estate crisis, which had a doom loop effect on the banks. So it became secondary banking crisis, commercial, real estate crisis. Well, funny, that looks exactly the same sequence of events in the US. And in fact, when you look at it, In that instance, the Bank of England got the big banks to put money into the lifeboat. What did the Fed do with the big banks? And I believe it was First Republic put some deposits in. 30 billion.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exactly, and you're talking about two segments of the market on the buy side that are very slow moving. So custards have had a big problem with commercial real estate. I suspect the really big ones also have Exposure to debt and maybe equity too on the pension fund side. But if you look at the insurance companies, you just walk down Fifth Avenue, MetLife, right? So, you know, there's a lot of, that's where the exposure is. And that's, you're talking a lot about secondary banking or the shadow banking, sorry, the shadow banking.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They're my banks. That's my bank. And you sit there going, And I have very little choice because I'm offshore. So I can't go to Apple and get 4 plus percent. But I think what worries us is in the commercial real estate market, it's split into sectors. There is one outstanding opportunity which could actually we could use to segue into the China discussion, decoupling. Obviously multifamily residential has suffered but given the housing shortage Probably there are ways to overcome it, but that depends on who holds the assets. Office is the really big problem. And if you look at the office market, either insurance companies own them, own the office. I'm talking a broad brush. Yes, certain banks own their own offices. But as a broad brush, the office segment is probably directly by a lot of insurance companies.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Clear to me, risk management was lacking. SVB, that was a clear risk management situation So I think we're very aware of the regional banks. I think there are, you know, people have been worried about the commercial real estate market and the impact on the regional banks or the banking sector in total. Of the big, the systemic banks, only 1% of their assets are exposed to commercial real estate, plus they have a massive asset diversificated asset portfolio. Yes, they're losing deposits, but they can more than compensate for that.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's half legal, half not legal, very sort of warped on the legislation there. And then also, yeah, these tons of interest rate risk, the value of a mortgage gets clobbered when you make it at 1% when interest rates are at 0%, and then interest rates go to 5.25%.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, but I think that the odds of being paid back are accurately perceived as very high because this person is a billionaire and if they get wiped out, they still have a lot of money. It's just that they got these sweetheart deals so that they would keep their money at the bank and did all sorts of tying agreements”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“King of the one percent mortgage. King of the 1% mortgage against collateral that's more questionable than not, if that makes sense. Oh, I've got a private company. We've just raised money. It's worth $3 billion. I own 30% how much of a mortgage can I get? This, and we'll give you the mortgage of 1%, right?”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, great. We had called in January for some sort of credit crunch in March, April, which actually came to fruition. Better luck in than clever we got the timing right, which is why we were saying, look, hedge your portfolio, if your short treasuries buy a cool spread on the price or put spread on the yield, that also worked well. But it strikes me that where we're going right now, the biggest risk is that not seen, right? And what I talk, when I say that not seen is probably private equity and private credit, the shadow banking system. I think we have quite a lot of risks that's come to the fore in, and it's just like 2007-2008. Interestingly enough, problems seem to originate not necessarily in New York first, but in California.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Really? Yeah, because they are data dependent. We still have inflation way above their target, whichever measure you tend to take, right? Will they cut? I don't think they'll cut this here unless they've really broken something. Now, have they broken something now? It's been reasonably well controlled. I think maybe a handful of other regional banks are probably exposed. And we may see some more accidents, but they have controlled it.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I think what we're seeing, and we'll cover this a little bit later, is there is a decoupling going on. But I think there's two decouplings going on. Obviously, US and developed markets, but I think China and she is decoupling too, and quite aggressively. So if that's, and I go back to that QC article at the beginning of the year from Xi where he de-emphasized exports and looked at domestic consumption and infrastructure investment as leading the economy out of it, plus exports to emerging markets. Well, you can't rely on exports to emerging markets unless you have leverage on them. So I suspect Belt and Road leverage. Trouble is Belt and Road is proving quite problematic because the original recipients of Belt and Road investments, loans, et cetera.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The economic data look good, but if you looked at where they were compared with from last year, they were always going to look good. But they were significantly below estimation. And I think what we're seeing is, and this is where, you know, I always say that if the US catch sneezes, the rest of our catches are cold. I think the US is sneezing because things have begun to break a bit somewhat. But definitely Europe and China, if you look at Germany, mercantileist export surplus nation, look at China the same. They're disappointing. I mean, manufacturing orders in Germany. I think that came out at the end of last week was a disaster. Absolute disaster.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Must be disappointing them, particularly those into China. Again, there's people are buying emerging markets. But if our estimation of the slowdown in the US, and I think Europe and China are already on the way down, and we can cover that in a second, people will go back to the dollar. And these trades won't work. I mean, China hasn't worked. Even on the initial reopening trade, it was a disappointing... Reaction in terms of where the markets actually got to. Now we're seeing, and I think we discussed this in a previous video discussion we had where Harold was on board, now we're seeing that China's data is actually disappointing. Even the data that came out last night, which was Monday.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exactly. I mean, I just find that dangerous. I sort of understand it, but it's still somewhat Risky, in my view. I think General view is that, and I'm not a contrarian for contrarian's sake, but I sense that, for example, a lot of people have been negative the dollar's direction. We know a lot of people are negative dollar on dedoization arguments, but we've handled that. But negative in the direction of the dollar, I actually think the dollar's on the verge of having another upswing. Well, I think a lot of people put money into China at the beginning of the year. A lot of people went long Europe out of the US and it's sort of”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's tough because actually if you refer to past few months or past six months even, where have we gone? It's been round circles, but back to the levels. I'm a little concerned about the narrowing of the equity market. I think that's dangerous.”
2023-05-18 · Forward Guidance · Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT