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Nigel Farage

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2024-06-03
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2024-06-03
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  1. So, on the surface, though, 1834 year olds had nearly 60% going for labour and something like 15% going for the Conservatives. That basically means that very few young people are going to share any conservative messaging because it's just embarrassing, right? Nobody wants to share conservative messaging. But you're right, are they registered? And the turnout figures, the turnout figures for that group suggest that only about 38% of them are likely to vote.

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. Okay, so I think this is really important when we move on to the LibDems and Ed Davy, who's going around basically behaving like a clown. But I do think the idea of how you leverage the comic entertaining moment to then deliver the serious message is really good because Kir Starmer's serious stuff, which you can see on TikTok, which I think has now got a lot of views, is really quite good. It's a very short video saying he's going to build one and a half million more homes. And then there's a picture of him looking quite sort of serious in black and white, but with a nice smile on his face. And so that is good. I mean, if you can land that stuff, you're really getting. And of course, the conservatives are really struggling to land. And one of the problems is that Labor's lead in the young people's vote, like 18 to 34, is just unbelievable.

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. And there is an awful lot of fake stuff. And just to explain, the idea is that you are a 60 year old, the fake account is a 60-year-old female voter in Grimsby. And that means that the parties who are spending hundreds of thousands of pounds on this will be targeting that voter with particular types of messages. And that's what she's picking up.

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. Surprise, exactly. Surprise! But some of them were also about sort of basically fake news saying that Rishi Sirak was going to send young people off to Ukraine and Gaza to die and this kind of stuff. And so it was very interesting there, which is that the people posting it say, well, obviously this is a joke. It's a satire. You know, I'm sort of sending up the horrible Tories by exaggerating their policy. But of course, the problem is quite a lot of people who don't know much about it may take it literally. So where's the line between satire and literal?

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. And maybe the Routine is to TikTok and social media is through national service. Because I noticed that there have been a lot of very popular memes on TikTok, which were

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. Yeah, and it wasn't. And I think that's the problem with national service, that largely the case for it is that it's good experience for 18-year-olds, not that it's particularly good for military. It's the same with the Peace Corps or voluntary service overseas, where you send young people abroad. It's good for the young people. It's not necessarily a very efficient way of doing international development. Listen, I wanted to move you on to something that you've been looking at.

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. Not cheap, very expensive, and there will be people like me and actually many members of the military who are a bit doubtful about whether the best investment are nuclear submarines, because obviously your nuclear deterrent is very much the last thing you use. But what you actually need, as we found in Ukraine, Day to day are tanks, missiles, artillery.

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. Commitment, but what Stama is saying is that he's going to launch four new fully equipped nuclear submarines. So I guess that's going to be good for British manufacturing.

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. Part of this debate. There's two things going on, isn't it? There's the massive crisis, which is Putin's invasion of Ukraine took everybody off balance. Europe is very aware that if Trump comes in and withdraws, the European armies are not remotely ready to defend against Russian invasion. But there's also the politics of this. Defense is one of the literally the only last things that the conservatives have a little bit of a lead over Labor on and 22 points to 20 points. And SUNAC seems to be in a position where Starma is trying to crush him on everything, trying to take him out on every single thing. So the only thing that conservatives will be saying is that Labor hasn't yet agreed to do this 2.5%.

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. She's the only person who, in my memory, when I stood up, would refer to me as the gallant member for her. I wonder if these

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. No, no, no. And it's a very interesting thing. So when I was in Parliament, went to Remembrance Day service, I think there were 52 Conservative MPs who'd been in the military for some period, some of them like me for a very, very short period. But Labour, much less. Labour's now building up. It's an interesting thing. I mean, in the US, people are completely obsessed with getting more veterans into the Senate and Congress. And there are a whole kind of lobby groups and funding groups trying to do that. I'm a little bit skeptical because I've got a lot of admiration for the military, but you also want a parliament that's representative of the general public. You don't want it completely stuffed full of soldiers.

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. And that's an interesting thing, isn't it? Because Kir Starmer is obviously, if you wanted to be provocative to some extent, the campaign has tracked the Tories. He's left very little gap between himself and the Tories.

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. Don't watch TV, you don't listen to radio. And if your social media feed is an interest in other stuff, Then I suppose it's quite possible you could go through many, many days, not really lettucing at all. Absolutely.

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. Most of the public haven't noticed. The only thing that they've really taken on board is this national service thing. But even that, as we'll go on to say, many of them have misunderstood, largely thanks to some amazing TikTok campaigns. And there was a nice piece, James Merritt and the Times went around the University of Warwick, Good University, talking to students. And one of the things he picks up is... Many of them don't really seem to be following these issues in detail. I mean, one of the students he was interviewing had picked up on the National Service thing, I think about a week after it had been announced, she noticed it was happening. And I suppose I was just thinking about this on the way up to see you that if you don't get the newspaper every morning,

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. The National Service. So, this is something that I guess you understand intuitively. Is difficult to grasp when one's being nerdy about elections. I mean, basically, our poll suggests that the general public noticed very, very little of all the activity of the last two and a half weeks. They find it difficult to really work out, they like Kirsama, but they find it difficult to name exactly what his policies are. The Diane Abbott story, which is the story about it seeming as though she was going to be blocked from running from labor and now she's running for labor, which was all over the front page of the papers.

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. 97 And I guess that's the point, isn't it? So in the big context, Kir Stanley's net popularity is not that impressive if we look at elections in the past, and that may be that people in general disenchanted with politics. It may be something to do with Starmer. But what matters, obviously, in election is how you're doing gets the opposition. And he's well ahead of anyone else.

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. And the third is would only be 2-3% of the vote, wouldn't it? And then we suddenly see Starmer really increasing his position with, I suppose, what's called young middle-aged voters. Maybe this is offensive to people who in their mid-40s don't feel that they're middle-aged.

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. Different. It suggests that, in fact, they're not really winning over those right wing reform voters. In fact, the right wing reform voters have strengthened and labour...

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. Really interesting stuff. So, this is with jail partners and the rest is politics. It's our own poll that we're now running every week. And there was an interesting development last week where they were showing that basically the conservatives had lost all voters under 65. And we may be just worth explaining that. That seems to suggest that the only people really voting for the conservatives in large numbers are people who are not working that anyone who's actually got an income is facing cost of living challenges and is feeling disenchanted. But there was a hope last week that the conservatives might be able to squeeze a little bit of the right wing vote, which is this reform party that used to be Brexit UKIP. And that was about doing things like pushing for new national service, triple locks on pensions or triple lock plus on pensions. But the date of this week is a bit

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. Well, there you have it. And here's the rest of our episode from today on the State of the UK election. And then what's going on in South Africa and the latest from the Israel-Gaza conflict?

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. Whip up this popular sentiment, and that'll be the bet that Farage is making. And my guess, you know, my bet on the show is I think he probably will win Clacton. We'll see whether I'm right on that. Do you think he'll win, Clackton?

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. Which needs to be hung around his neck. I think final thing for me is that, as you say, this is about populism and it's about a bet, not just from Nigel Farage, but also from figures like Liz Truss, Suella Brahman, and others on the right of the Conservative Party, that a Starmer government is going to seem too center-ground, too technocratic, and that that's going to open up a big space on the populist right in the way that these governments have in Europe. I mean, they look to Europe, they look to America, they think that combination of the economic problems in Britain, social media, general lack of confidence in politics gives you an opportunity to...

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  23. Seat will take enough votes away from the Conservatives to guarantee that the seat goes to Labour. How many seats? We don't know. I mean, one guess is maybe about 30 seats this could be true in. Could be, of course, much more if the Conservative vote really collapses and Labour's performing well. I mean, that's what we don't know about these things. But certainly from the point of view of conservative central office, two problems. Number one, they think this was going to damage them in the campaign. and they were really relying on those reform voters coming over them. That's why we've seen increasingly right-wing messaging. That's what to some extent the national service messaging was about. That's why you can expect a big immigration announcement next week. But secondly, people like me are very, very worried that after the election, Farage is going to spearhead a group of people trying to drag the Conservative Party ever more into the right and into the political wilderness. And basically evacuate the entire center ground of British politics. What do you reckon at that?

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  24. So, what does it mean for the Tories? The Conservative Party will be very worried. It's not as simple as saying that Conservative voters are just going to defect to reform because some of them will vote Labour and Lib Dem because the Conservative Party is quite a broad church. So there's the right wing of the Tory Party and there's the left wing of the Tory Party. It's also not quite as straightforward as to say reform voters will necessarily come back to the Tory Party, but we've done some good polling on this and in the jail partners rest is politics poll. It turns out that about 34% of reformed voters would otherwise vote conservative and that's three times as many as would vote for other parties. And again, nearly a third of conservative voters are considering voting for reform. So what's that going to mean? Well, it will mean that in a number of seats, the likelihood is that the reform, even if it doesn't win the...

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  25. Defected to Nigel Farage's party and held it for them from 2014 to 2017. And it's a place where Aaron Banks, who's the funder of Nigel Farage on his own polling, thinks that Farage has the best chance of taking a seat. What's your reaction, Alistair?

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  26. And we're just coming in recording on Monday evening, shortly after the news that Nigel Farage is now coming back as the leader of reform, which is the right-wing ex-Brexit UKIP party. And he is going to run to be MP in Clacton. Now, this is at the top of an episode, which we recorded on Monday morning. So we're just bringing this in to update you on the latest news to make sure that you're not out of date. Now, just to put it in context, Farage has over 21 years been rejected seven times as an MP in six constituencies. But this doesn't seem to have had any impact whatsoever, either on his confidence or his sway over a particular chunk of the voting public. And Clacton on C is a very particular choice of place. It's a place that voted 70% for Brexit in 2016, and it's a place where when I was in Parliament, the Conservative MP, Douglas Carswell,

    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

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    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

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    2024-06-03 · The Rest Is Politics · 260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source