YouSaid · the spoken record

Peter Schiff

lines on the record: 80
first: 2025-08-15
most recent: 2025-08-15
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Countries are fighting over resources. Everybody's dealing with debt problems. Everybody's dealing with demographic issues. The likelihood that governments are going to step back and not try to solve these crises or solve these big challenges, I think is naive. I think they will try to impose their will in the way they think want things to be done as opposed to just letting them work themselves out on their own.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Happening with stablecoins. But this is all part, to me, this is all part of. People aren't going to like me saying this, but I'm going to say this is unfortunately the fall of the American Republic, but it's the rise of the American Empire. And I'm increasingly coming to the not a conclusion because I still think I still think about it a lot. I don't know for sure, but I'm increasingly thinking that the next four, you know, the four turnings, going through the fourth turning, then we get the spring. That next whole cycle, that whole next cycle could be one where It's not characterized by more freedom and more decentralization, but unfortunately more centralization and less freedom. And I don't necessarily like that, but I think that seems increasingly likely to me in a world where”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I actually think that is a huge. I think it's a much bigger deal than people realize. Not because I think it's necessarily a way for the US to keep running these budget deficits and have a new buyer. I think it'll help that a little bit. But to me, that's not the real power. The real power to me is that it's the US creating its own channel that it can control that could eventually become the euro dollar rails, right? Or the euro dollar plumbing. And that would give the United States more control over global monetary policy. They already have more control than anybody else, but they don't have full control, right? But it would give them more control than they have now. And I kind of think of it like when they transferred LIBOR over to Sofar, right? Took four or five years, but they finally did it. And now the US has control of Sofar, you know, as opposed and LIBOR no longer exists. I could see the same thing.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the AOC, and then their policy that'll put a kabosh to these things pretty quick. So I do think it's touchy from here in terms of like, and that's assuming, right, all the power needs of it is met. And there's no question AIs can it be a massive player in the future. Think you have to be more.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Or gamble, and that's, you know, that's a gamble, I guess phenomenon here is people are saying like, well, I can just gamble it or swing for the fence. So I think the AI space race thing is real. And I believe all of that, but what I don't think people account for is that, you know, Jem Carson talks about it, and I actually agree with him on it, which is you run into the social dilemma. Like you can, I can want to win the space race. I can want to do this and that. But when you have, you know, when you're seeing youth unemployment go above 10%, right? Like these are these are like emerging market numbers outside of a recession. I mean, you're basically, it's indicative that this part of the economy is effectively in a recession. And so it's not all roses when those sorts of social dynamics happen. And then that's when you get the New York.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm low 30s. I would say everyone's sort of having the realization, you know, in most of these cities, it's 2.2, 2 plus times your monthly payment to buy versus rent. Like if I want to buy my place, I'm putting a down payment plus paying 2.2x or so a month more. So that just shows how unaffordable because of the elevated financing cost to buy. And I think a lot of the our generation is saying having this realization they're turning 30s. They're getting married, you know, and they're like, okay, I kind of need to start having kids now. But I've been living in this apartment in a city that's actually, if I wanted to buy. I cannot even think of affording it. So I either have to massively downsize, doesn't work if you're expanding family, or move to Phoenix, move to like some of these other areas or go long run.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so what Trump has to do is he has to keep them from rising above him, but he also has to keep them from. And so, and that's not easy to do. And again, I think this, but the sooner that. The tough stuff happens, I think the better it is for him to then implement all of this stuff that you're talking about that really do goose the market from a now little bit lower base. And for the US to maintain its hegemony, it has to win the technology race. It has to because if China wins that, then they will supersede the United States. And that won't be good Trump. That won't be good for Trump. It won't be good for the administration. It won't be good for the United States as a whole.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So I think of that. And then I think Donald Trump wants two things. He wants to be known as the greatest American president and he wants his face on Mount Rushmore, right? Okay. So you cannot do that if China surpasses you while you're the president. So he has to keep China in a box, right? He has to keep them from ascending. But the flip side is he doesn't want China to collapse. In other words, he doesn't want a war. He doesn't want a financial crisis. He doesn't want their economy to melt down because if their economy melts down due to Trump's policies, that doesn't make Trump look like a genius. That doesn't make him look like a great negotiator. It doesn't make him like a great dealmaker. It just looks like somebody that caused this big problem. And if China melts down, the United States will go into crisis as well, right? Again, it's not a situation where China goes into a crisis and the United States has having a picnic. I mean, the markets are intricate.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, so, and I just kind of wargame all this stuff out. I think to myself, if I'm Trump and I'm Bessant, and actually I try to think like Bessant because I think he's probably a little bit more rational than Trump, right? If the market jumps 15% higher over the next two months or three months, or if it falls 15% over the next two or three months, which one is better for me? I would almost argue if it falls over 15% over the next two or three months, that's probably better for me. Because if you just keep going up and to the right. You're bringing in the correction, which will, again, markets do not go straight up to the right. There will be a pullback at some point. The quicker it happens, the last thing you want it is to be next year heading into the midterms, right?”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So rather than fight against it, I say embrace it because I don't think it's going away. And I think the people that do well are going to be the ones that can harness the technology as opposed to the ones that fight it. But I 100% agree with you that for the, this gets a little philosophical now, but I actually think it is playing into the perfect time.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I've been telling him to use AI and figure out how to use it to be better at whatever it is you do because it's not going away. It's like the whole, you know, you need to spend 18 hours a day studying math because you're not going to have a calculator in your pocket. Well, you know what? You do have a calculator in your pocket. Right, so”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think he's like six foot seven now or something like six. Yeah, that's yeah, he could probably beat me up now, but yeah, so what do you do as a father? I've got three young kids. How the heck do you prepare your son for this?”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, this again is just another thing. And I would say that most people don't think that AI is going to go stair step but boom boom boom boom. Most people see it as a, you know, exponential, right? That goes back to my, if it goes like that, then I could see inflation go like that. But I don't see it just right I think it either crashes or it stays at these levels and goes higher.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I actually think you're right. I think we could have this productivity boom, but I think it could lead to a lack of, I don't know, I don't want to say it's going to lead to no jobs, but you can already kind of see it, right?”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Productivity, and we talked about this at Coriente with Mark, who's one of our friends, where he and I thought we were in a productivity boom. I still do. I don't know if it's going to come to fruition like in the next couple months, but over time, over the next couple years, as AI actually bears fruit, could that have this massive disinflationary, deflationary pressure on prices? And, you know. I kind of am thinking this actually might be something. And one of the policies of the government that's unsaid is they need to win the AI space race. You know, if you look at”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Let me ask you a question because at that point, all right, this AI narrative, I got to say, I think it actually is bearing fruit. And Quinn, I think you brought this up. The number of unemployed kids out of college, they're not even higher. Oh, no.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Some are related to that. I don't think inflation. I wouldn't say inflation is a problem in the sense that it's going to go much higher, right? I just don't see a compelling reason for it to steadily fall unless it crashes.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This dichotomy of two routes where it's like there's almost, I don't see a great middle ground right now. It's like either they just juice it and sure you get a little bit of upside in the indices, but if they're going to actually just full bore liquidity, you'd want to be in the long tails or you want to be like super cautious and defensive. It's sort of this barbell how I'm viewing it. Because I think inflation is a serious problem. I just don't see how the current Fed rate path comes to fruition.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We're already priced to perfection in many ways across the indices. So that's why you get the long tail crypto, Bitcoin, et cetera, to kind of fly off, because they're really supporting liquidity heavily. And then you're in this other side of it where, you know, okay, let's say they don't. And it's a little bit disappointing to current expectations, then you get asset price correction. So it's this weird kind of.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And there's all these weakness factors, but it's going to be really interesting how they handle this and how I think about it in assets. It's like you have the indices at all-time high valuations, you know, all the concentration factors that Brent mentioned. And so it's sort of bifurcated. It's like, okay, maybe there's one path where they juice, you know, they get the Fed to cut two, three times in the next four or five months. And you're sitting here and you're like, okay, well,”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Stimulus, that kind of is the reason inflation became problematic. And so when you look at some of this recent data, there actually is a case across some of it to be made that It's still this K shape two speed economy, very much so. But things like this Visa US spending momentum index has increased. I don't know what's behind this. The US federal employment tax receipts data through it's only one week in August, but continues to be very, very strong year over year growth. We're seeing that the daily withheld employment and income taxes and then this wages, small business optimism rising a bit. you have this dynamic where”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Rising because they're treating it as the solution. But we have a labor demand and supply reduction due to immigration and the unemployment rate constant. And so you can really think of that, in my opinion, as sort of a bottleneck. And we're seeing it. I have a good slide here actually. Seeing it in some of the data flow through which is on the wage side. You're kind of at this point, this is a number of. Firms trying to increase wages, the blue line You're actually at the supply restriction, which reminds me a lot of COVID, where we had a supply chain issue and then a big demand.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Quinn, where's your head at with all this? So the forward outlook Or I agree with Brent that The common narrative. Belief is that Fed's just going to kind of cut Look past inflation. No matter what happens. Don't like, especially when you put that against the backdrop of how accelerated. Kind of the Appreciation and asset prices has been on the back of that. Doesn't make a ton of sense here. Risk reward to me because You're expecting it to not be derailed for some reason. And there really is still a decent amount of data to be had before September's Fed meeting. Guess if it's at 90% even after today, you know, people are pretty sold on it. But the idea that the labor market's forcing the hand here. It's not clear to me that cuts are the solution, although that's why it risks.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, you know, I gotta say, I'm not participating in the miners right now. It's not that I'm against them. I just feel like they've had a huge run. I don't like, again, I don't like buying anything at its all-time high. Now, the miners are not at their all-time high, but they're at a whatever, 10-year high or whatever it is, gold's at its, I don't really like anything right now, but on a pullback, then I think, you know, you showed that chart where it broke above. If it were to pull back to that support line. Know and what used to be resistance was then support that might be a good chance to take a shot there.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A percentage basis increased their monetary base more than the United States over the last five years. Or I'm sorry, over the last 25 years. And it's not close. A lot of them have doubled what the U.S. did. But the point is that then people say, well, then all fiats get into basement. Yes, absolutely all fiats getting debased. And then it goes to your point. That's why gold's doing well. That's why crypto's doing well. That's why hard assets are a good play.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, the ECB's been buying Italian bonds for years. So, you know, again, you get back into it, you get back into this relative game. And the other thing I would say is if we go back to that M2 chart again, the important thing to remember, this is not the action of the central bank alone. This is the action of the central bank plus the commercial bank. If we were just to look at the central bank action and look at the base money, because that's what the Fed quote unquote prints. If you were to look at the base money that's been printed and then you were to look at a percentage basis of the UK, the EU, France, or not France, Japan, China, they've all”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Necessarily, that the US is seen the same way that it used to be. I would probably argue that it's not. But on a relative basis, who is stronger? Who has more power, right? And when I think about that, so now coming back to, let's say, the dollar goes down, the euro goes higher. What does that do to European exports? And so when their budgets start blowing out, what does the ECB do?”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Said, okay, it's okay for now, but be careful, right? And so when I see Bessant coming out now and saying, this country needs to do this, that country needs to do this. To me, it's the same type of thing at work, but it's more overt than it used to be. And for anybody out there saying, well, the US no longer has the power to do this. Okay, really? Well, then why did von der Leyen and Keir Starmer fly to Trump's golf course to meet with him on the trade issue rather than Trump going to them? If Trump has no power, why did they go to him and then why did they accept the deal that much more favors the U.S. than it favors them? Same thing with Japan, right? And so, again, I'm not saying that the U.S. has perfect control. And I don't know.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In 2022, the yen went from, I think it fell 50% in six or seven months. That does not happen without the Fed letting it happen or without the Fed or the Treasury branding them currency manipulators. So I'm not saying the Fed said it was okay or I'm not saying the Fed told them to do it, but I can guarantee you there were conversations behind the scenes regarding what was going on. And the Fed would have at least in some form or another.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And Quinn touched on this. You've got Bessant. Talking about other countries about what they should be doing with their monetary policy. Behind the scenes, this has always happened. The U.S. has always had influence. Now, maybe not 100% influence, and perhaps they couldn't just tell other central banks what to do. But the U.S. has always had influence over foreign monetary policy, treasury policy, all kinds of policies. And to me, this is it bringing out from behind the scenes and just putting it front and center on the stage. In other words, you may have heard me say they use this term the veil of altruism as being ripped off. You know, for a long time, we pretended that this was a free market and that, you know, laissez-faire and, you know, Adam Smith and the invisible hand.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It is a relative game. And Europe, if we were to pull up all these charts of Europe, they don't look fantastic in Europe. And what would happen? So if the dollar falls 10% or 15%, that means the euro is going up 10 or 15 percent. What does that do to Europe's economy, right? What does that do to their budget deficits? I mean, and the interesting thing here.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, in today's system, dollars are not physically printed. They're loaned into existence. So every time you create a new dollar, you're also creating a dollar plus interest of demand that is going to come piggybacking or boomeranging back five years, 10 years, whatever the term of that extension of credit is. And so we could absolutely go into a system or an environment where the dollar, DXY goes from 97 to 90 or 88. We saw this after COVID. It was no problem or asset prices went higher. But you have to remember”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Me, I don't worry about the dollar falling because the dollar falling typically is associated with asset prices rising. We manage assets. We want assets to rise, right? Crises usually come with the dollar rising. In other words, if you look back over the last 25 or 30 years, you can't find a crisis where the dollar was screaming lower and foreign currencies were rising higher over an extended period of time because that's just not the way the system works. So if we are in a dollar falling environment, That's fine. But what to me, what that does, I'll try not to make this too long. It kicks the can down the road because the only way you get the dollar following is to have plenty of dollar liquidity.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I still think it does, but let me address the first part first. You said we could be in a dollar week environment. We could very well be in a dollar weak environment. I think a lot of people are of the belief that I don't believe the dollar can fall. The dollar can absolutely fall.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And read only this so you're obviously famous for the dollar milkshake theory. You know, the dollar sucks up all liquidity from the rest of the world. And I really wanted to concentrate on this because I think the world's changed personally. I think we're in a dollar week environment and we are now almost like a third world country. We issue bonds on the front end of the curve. We put tariffs on everyone else. The world used to function where we would buy someone else's goods. We'd buy China's goods. They would take those dollars. They would buy our debt, right? Now that function doesn't really happen as much anymore. If you see Russia's holdings of treasuries and China's holdings of treasuries, they're all dropping. And who is the incremental buyer of the debt and who's the incremental foreign buyer of US assets here?”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Window guidance is what Richard Warner called it, or mandated credit extension, you know, by the commercial banks. And you have fiscal spending by the government, you get into what's called the imperial circle, right? And that was popularized by Soros and Druckenmiller back in the, I think it was the late 80s, early 90s. They did it when in Germany. But the dynamics are still at play. And I would argue that's partly what we've seen in the US over the last couple of years is that, you know, the high rates in the US drew capital in. And the extension of credit, the M2 picking up despite higher rates, we've seen an acceleration in M2 that's very obvious on this chart right here. The question is, can they just push it from here higher or do we have to have this correction? Again, I think we have to.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the reason that's important is because the bank of then together they would tell the banks, the commercial banks, you need to make this amount of loans to these companies. That's your marching order. Just do it, right? And that is how M2 increases, right? And so when M2 starts increasing and it's mandated to increase because of the government, And then you put on top of it the fiscal spending that the government is going to do because they kind of have to do it. And then finally, you put on top of that higher relative rates than the rest of the world. Now, the reason I say higher relative is because rates in the US could come down 200 basis points or 300 basis points and still be fairly attractive to the rest of the world. Right. And so if you have Higher relative rates.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, absolutely. Yeah, so this, and this is why Actually, a lot of the stuff that you have just said, and I'll piggyback and I'll add on to it, is why I'm actually, you know, somewhat optimistic about asset prices, you know, over the next couple of years in the United States. Know if you, I'm sure you guys have seen at some point either read the book or seen the presentation or heard his recent interviews about it was when I think it's Richard Werner talking about the Princes of the Inn, right? The way that Japan had that incredible growth in the 80s was that in the late 70s, early 80s, they kind of quasi-merged the Fed and the Treasury in Japan, right? I think it was called the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, no, I agree with you. Go back to the M2 slide. I think this is important to point out for people who aren't quite familiar, yeah, that one. Important thing to remember about M2 is this is not the government printing money. This is the bank's printing money. This is the extension, predominantly the extension of credit, right? What the Fed quote unquote prints is the monetary base. And they then need the commercial banks to Know, parlay that into credit extension, which increases M2. As long as credit is. So to me, that's the important part to remember.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This is why I think they're going to lower rates massively. The real estate to SP, this is how bad. I've been talking about this on Twitter a lot, but there's a commercial real estate crisis going on. There's this guy, Nightingale, this guy Twitter, he talks about this building in, I believe it was San Francisco took an 86% haircut giant, you know, it was like a $500 million building. And that's supposed to be your short volatility pension asset that you buy for life insurance companies. It just resets at 86% lower. And we're seeing the real estate sector just get absolutely annihilated. And to me, that I'm like, okay, this is like when you print ungodly amounts, especially with Trump at the helm. And he knows how bad commercial real estate is. If your peer buildings are taking 86% haircut, 70%.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Out right now. And I'm conscious of this whip volatility if you get a headline or bad earnings from one of the major components of the S&P or the Qs. I think it's good to protect the little downside here given the vol so low. And if I look at this from a 20,000 foot view, I just think we're going full Ponzi, crazy, crazy land here. What are your thoughts there? Because and then this is the last one I always want to show real quick is slide 47 to end because I think you'll love this.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, exactly. So, and this is probably why you're a gold bull for God knows how long in me too at heart. But slide 40 43. This is the M2. This is where we go full Ponzi. And this is why I think we're honestly just, we just keep grinding higher. You have buybacks that 80% of the buyback window is open. So even when the VIX pops really quick and the market sells off, you just have that inelastic market of passive and buybacks taking you higher every day. But then you have this M2 money growth. I think it's like 22 trillion of M2. And then if you go to the next slide, this is year over year, M2 money growth. And it's up, what, almost five percent year over year. And this is my gauge of like, if you're talking Michael Howell saying, you know, we're in this liquidity cycle to the upside. I think this is what crypto.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Might get that momentum reversal, you know, it happened, I don't know, six months ago where you had Tech Sell Off and IWM just ripped. I think we could probably set up for something like that. But here's what I really want to talk to you guys about. So Brent, you haven't probably watched these the past couple months, but I've been going ham on calling this Weimar America. And, you know, we're in full Ponzi mode. When I say that, I mean long term. We all know that the government, just like you said, the treasury is going to merge with the Fed somehow one way or another to finance the government. That will be the policy. Otherwise, you know, that's what happens in history is.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Look at check this out though. Go to slide 46. This is the Russell future. This is, if you actually look at institutional positioning, this is the non-commercial futures position to open interest. This is for the Russell. They've never been more short the Russell, which is really fascinating to me where.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“DGB traded. And then you have Besson also actually on his Bloomberg interview, which is pretty not normal to be commenting on other countries, particularly monetary policy, because he's on the fiscal side, saying they need to hike because they're behind the curve, which I thought is a little bit of pot call in the kettle black because at the same time he's calling for 150 bips or rate cuts here while our inflation problems kind of, you know, potentially reaccelerating. So yeah, I'm not so sure on how the rest of the year plays out, but I do, I am cautious here. And I think looking at some of the price action in Bitcoin and other kind of longer tail liquidity risk assets, you know, this week and particularly last 36 hours would potentially line up for some sort of dampening in animal spirits positioning. Just so long.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And kind of minimize the impact on issuing long duration coupons. It's at the lowest since 2021. And it's basically depleted. It'll be depleted probably by the end of this week. So they still have over $250 billion to refill on the TGA in the next six weeks about that pretty meaningful liquidity drain. And so I'm pretty sympathetic as well to the idea of some sort of pullback. The other thing on my mind is that there's been more and more rubbings over the last few days about the BOJ. We had one recruit in one of the large Japanese firms saying they're not buying any more bonds until the BOJ hikes. We have Tuesday this week. Supposedly there's a headline or something that not a single 10-year”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, it's Snazzy. I think that. A lot of this benefit has been pulled forward. And I actually agree with your sentiment that like they actually probably don't want things to just be gangbusters yet. And because if the Fed did do what Besson is saying and dropped 150 base points, the dollar would break lower inflation expectations would go up. Rates would go, yields would go up. It would actually not accomplish anything. So I think they're trying to cushion things in advance of what is also on top of the seasonal things you mentioned. There is some liquidity headwinds hitting. So the reverse repo facility, which has been a huge buffer of liquidity in the markets. And one of the things that's allowed the treasury to take this active issuance approach and front load duration to the short end.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm pretty open to that. I think this article headline summarized the last few months quite perfectly in terms of you mentioned the narrative that they're able to or have been able to command to their benefit, really. But this one hit this week where they added, they've expanded the Fed list to all the governors, all these, which is the most obvious sign of like, you know, all right, drumming up support, trying to make it so it's not just the three candidates who are Team Trump members to be looser with their monetary policy. And then obviously this meme we had to point out was so good with Zervos being floated.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, that's the thing, I can make an argument for the opposite. And here's, and this is, I want to say this just so I don't forget to say it. Like after the correction, I'm actually somewhat cautiously optimistic for the next couple years. I think the things that Trump and Bessant and Team are doing could actually have some great positive impact on asset prices. Again, it's not a guarantee, but I could make the case that we're going to go much higher. And I think we ultimately will. I just think we need a pullback.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And there's always a handful of catalysts that nobody knows about. Those are the black swans that you can't even predict even if you wanted to. And then the third thing is that for whatever reason, and I would really like somebody to explain to me why, a lot of times whenever you do get these crazy market events, they happen in the fall, sometime between September and November. So it's all of that that makes me sit back and just say, okay, this is an environment where at a minimum I want to be cautious. And, you know, if you want to take a shot at the downside, this is probably not a horrible time to do it.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT