YouSaid · the spoken record

Peter Schiff

lines on the record: 80
first: 2025-08-15
most recent: 2025-08-15
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Same thing again happened in early this year. Now, I was early this year in January. I saw the same thing start to develop, and it took six weeks for it to develop. But then when it hit, it was very dramatic. And kind of the same thing has happened again here over the last six, eight weeks. I was early and I'm happy to admit I was early. I don't think I'm wrong. Maybe I'll be wrong, but I think the way I manage money and the way the model I use tells me this is a time to at a minimum have cash on the sideline, some cash on the sideline. You probably want to have a hedge on the positions you have. And if you were ever going to take a shot at making some money on the downside, this is the type of an environment in which you'd want to do it. Now, again, none of these are guarantees. I don't know for sure that this will happen, but that's the way I see things. And when I combine that with the fact that there's a number of potential catalysts that I can identify over the next six weeks.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I typically don't like these because to me that's just, you know, it's kind of hyperbolic and, you know, they usually don't play out. Again, when everything else is lined up and then you see something like this in my world where I don't just try to like make money, I try to protect the capital of the clients I have that have spent a lifetime making it, I at least have to take a step back and say, okay, hold on a second, right? And the other thing I would say is I've been doing this for 25 years now. Very rarely do I see a confluence of all these signals hitting at once. You'll often see one or two or maybe a handful. But to get six, seven, eight signals all lined up at once is pretty rare. A year ago in June or in July was the first time in 25 years of doing this that every little single thing that I looked at told me to sell or to hedge or to be ready for a drive. And that happened, right?”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's not a guarantee that we're going to have a crash. It just says this is the type of an environment in which you could have a pretty strong drawdown pretty quickly. It wouldn't take a whole lot to get a 10% drawdown, especially when you consider the same effects of passive management that can drive the market higher. When it flips, it can drive the market lower very quickly. That's what we saw last July. It's what we saw again in April. And it wouldn't surprise me again if we see it sometime in the next six weeks. And then I bring up the next slide. Now, I hesitated to put this in here, but I just did it for fun.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We're back to extreme valuations. Now, none of these things on their own are a reason to get apocalyptic and predict in 1929 or whatever it is, right? But when you take the VIX, which is at its low, the bond volatility index is at its low, the realized VAL is where that chart showed it is, or concentration is in a handful of stocks. Momentum is starting to fall. And then the reason for the rally, whether it be rate cuts or the removal of tariffs, well, tariffs are back, and we're going to start showing up. And I don't think rate cuts are as certain. And even if they are certain, I don't necessarily think they'll have the impact that everybody. When I put all that together, it tells me.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And then there's this shows you where the income of the SP is coming from. You know, in the income growth is falling. So we're not growing as quickly as we have been over the last couple of years, but it's still being dominated by these seven companies. And so again, it just shows how concentrated it is. Let's jump to the next slide. And then here's just a evaluation measurement.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is pushing those 10 or 20 companies, however you want to define it, five to 20 companies are driving the markets higher. I don't have a slide here on the show, but part of the reason that this jumps out to me is that there's a, not only is there a divergence between momentum and price, there's a divergence between the three main markets for the US. The NASDAQ, which is a beneficiary of these 10 largest companies and the big momentum players, has made a new high. The S&P has returned to its high, and this is from late August, right? Or late, late July. The S&P, I think, is just slightly above its high from late July. But the Dow is not yet made a new high. And that tells me again that it's concentrated in those 10 to 15 names. Let's go to the next slide.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And momentum, it just makes me start. It's one red flag that I put up. So let's go to the next one. So then you combine that with the concentration, right? The concentration, again, whether you want to call it the fang or the magnificent seven or the ten largest, I mean, the market is so concentrated right now that it's basically a handful of stocks which are really benefiting from the rise of passive management and the way that's changed the market structure.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And then we saw that little sell off at the very end of July into the first week of August. But now since we've seen a bounce in the price and the relative strength is trying to bounce higher, but the momentum is gone. And so that's a divergence, right? Typically, you would want to see them both rising together. The problem is when they both get overbought, they can't rise together much more. And then once the momentum starts to roll down, the way I think of it is like riding a bike up a hill. If you have a bunch of speed and you're pedaling up the hill, you can kind of get to the top of the hill. But if you stop three quarters of the way up to take a drink of water, it's really hard to start pedaling that bike again and get that same momentum going higher again. Now, it's not impossible, and I'm not saying it. I'm just saying to me, when you get a divergence in price,”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It just doesn't so positioning is very extended, right? So let's just go to the next slide. Here's the SP 500. Now this is like a one or two year chart. What I've highlighted, so the middle, so the top is the price. The middle is relative strength, and the bottom is the stochastics, which is basically just a measure of momentum, right? Relative strength and stochastics are both a measure of momentum. They were both extremely overbought, let's call it two or three weeks ago.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know it wouldn't take a whole lot for even if the market had a 10% correction here or 15 correction, the market's still up dramatically, right? And I just, I don't think markets go up straight into the right forever. And so, and I think the fact that tariffs got kicked down the road and now they're back and over the next couple months, we're going to start at least seeing some of the effects of tariffs. Now, I don't think there is apocalyptic, as many people seem to think these tariffs are, but we will see some effects. And so when I look at the slides that Tyler showed and I combine that with some of the other slides I have here, this is the CTA's exposure. So CTAs are basically trend following, right? So if the trend followers are 95% long, what does that say about everybody else that they're following?”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I have been surprised that we have not. Long story short, I thought we were going to start rolling back again, not necessarily a crash, but just I thought we were going to start giving up some of the rally late May, early June. And it just hasn't happened. So I felt like I was very right from the beginning of the year to the end of May. And I felt like I've been very wrong for the last eight weeks as this just continued higher. The point here that I'm trying to make is that asset markets don't move in a straight line. This was a nine-month period and then after that, the market went on a tear higher.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, so if you go to slide 62, so 62, it's a chart of 2022. And I had 2022 as my analog for 2025 starting back in like November. And the reason is I thought we were going to have to deal with a paradigm shift in 2025 the same way we had to deal with a paradigm shift in 2022. And I thought, you know, in 2022, it was interest rates. And now it is tariffs. But in many ways, you could argue that tariffs have a similar effect on markets as rate hikes, right? And so I thought there was going to be some similarities. And so I wasn't surprised at all by the drawdown into April. And I wasn't surprised at all by the rebound up into, let's call it, late May, early June.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The case is like we've seen a pretty big move. I think it could probably still keep going just given its next two weeks. But I'm with you where I'm getting a little nervous that, you know, given where all the assets are, it's time for a little correction. But yeah, what are your thoughts?”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And we've just seen even today after the PPI happened, you had a brief pop in the VIX and then the VIX just got hammered. Obviously, it's part seasonal because there's not much going on in August and everyone's on vacation. And then the next slide is high yield credit spreads. Super, super tight. Yeah, this goes without saying. But I think this is why you're seeing money flee to the frontier markets, the ARKK markets, crypto's kind of in there, I guess, now too, as a new source of collateral. you know, a lot of the really frothy stuff, altcoins were kind of going to. And that all leads us to the last chart, which is the Goldman Sachs financial condition index is they've messaged this thing like to your point where if you ease what happens now, like do you, if you got to do 50 to really like have an effect, I think, with where the market is and really get risk assets moving otherwise, you know, I'm”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If you hit 39, basically what's happened is because the narrative has been massaged and whether Trump actually gets his way and gets Powell to ease or regardless gets him out of there. This is what's happened. This is the bond, the move index. And it's at all time low. So bond volatility is at all-time lows. They've messaged it because September odds of easing or was it 90%, maybe not 90% after today after the PPI, but still pretty high for September. Then go to the next slide, Gwen. This is options realized vault on equities. So this is 10 day realized volatility is below 10 for the first time, which is also causing those systematic var, you know, equity players to lever up their books on the equity side. So the VIX is really low.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Number one, but then the other thing is if they cut short ends to your point, if they cut short rates by 50 basis points or whatever it is, does the long end necessarily come down with it or does it jump? Because, you know, and does that accomplish, does that counteract the whole point of why Bessant and Trump want the cuts to begin with? I'm not convinced that a cut benefits Trump investant the way they think it does.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, so this is another part of the reason I think we're due for a correction. Again, I don't think not necessarily a crisis, just a correction, is that I'm not convinced that if they do cut, it's necessarily going to be welcomed by the market. It might be. And I'm not, again, there's nuance here, right? I'm not saying that it's guaranteed that they cut and all of a sudden bad things happen. But if they're cutting gold at its all-time high Bitcoin's at its all-time high, real estate's at its all-time, stocks are at their all-time high. Everything's at its all-time high. Inflation's not falling fast, and they're cutting rates. So there's two parts to this. Okay, why are they cutting if they're what do they see that we don't see? If they're cutting with everything at its all-time high, what are they?”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The other ironic thing is that if they actually did cut 150 base points, like Best's saying is, you know, you'd have way bigger issues in the long-ended mortgage market than today. But everybody, when you talk to people, they don't understand the nuance between front and back end. And everyone just thinks that Paul kind of controls the mortgage rate.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The last couple years. And again, if there is some kind of a downturn, or if there is something that doesn't go perfectly, you know, Trump and Bessant have both set it up to where they're not the ones at fault.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, not only that, Tyler, think about all the stuff that both Trump and Bessant have said over the last couple months is they've done a horrible job. They're behind the curve. They need a full review. We think the Fed needs a full review. And I've been talking about this for a couple years now. I think we're moving towards a period where the functions of the Treasury and the Fed get merged. Now, whether that's official or whether it's unofficial or whether the Fed just gets less autonomy in the Treasury gets more control or more say on monetary policy. Not to mention the fact that it kind of started under Yellen is that you could argue that Treasury has started doing monetary policy anyway. You know, traditionally, Treasury is in charge of dollar policy and the Feds in charge of monetary policy. But those lines have gotten blurred a lot over.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You got Bessint out there talking about short term rates being one and a half to two and a half percent in the future. I think that was on Fox News yesterday Which is just incredible. So they're basically putting the blame squarely on Powell if he doesn't. He's.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Correction in the stock market. Markets don't go up straight into the right. There are going to be corrections, and I think they would, if there's going to be one, I think they would much rather have it now than nine months from now or 12 months from now heading into the midterms. So that's kind of a long-winded answer to your question, but that's kind of where I see the inflation expectations at right now.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If he doesn't cut and the market goes down, he says, Well, stupid Powell, you know, I've been saying all along he got it wrong again, da-da-da-da. If it wasn't for him, markets would be higher. But if he cuts and markets go down, he says, stupid pal, he was late. I've been telling him for six months he needed to cut rates. And now he's like, no matter what happens, Trump is covered. And while the Trump haters will say it's Trump's fault, the people who voted for Trump, they're going to eat it up. And the populist rhetoric of the evil fed, Powell's hurting your 401ks and your IRAs at the same time he's building a $2.5 billion palace in Washington, D.C. That is going to sell to his base. And so, and the ironic thing about all this is I actually think Trump would be okay with a correction. I don't think he is as against it as many people think. I know, I'm not saying he wants it, but I don't think he's going to freak out if there's a 10% correction in the stock market. I don't think Bessant would be all that upset with a 10%.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I think Powell is in no hurry to cut. And I know everybody's expecting him to cut, and I won't be surprised if he cuts, but I won't be surprised if he doesn't cut either. I think there is a lot of personalities at play here. I think the last thing in the world he wants to be is Arthur Burns. Now, that's not some great insight on my part. That's been discussed at nauseam over the last couple years, but I think it's right. But I will say Trump has done a masterful job. And listen, whatever you think of Trump, he is a great master of the narrative. And he has done a fantastic job of setting up Powell as the fall guy, if there is a correction. Because if he cuts...”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But that's kind of my outlook. And I feel like the data kind of supports that. In other words, to a certain extent, we've had this Goldilocks, you know, all summer on the inflation data. It hasn't been too hot, but it hasn't been weak either, right? But the expectation, the rate cuts are coming, rate cuts are coming has depressed volatility and pushed asset prices higher. I don't see why prices are going to just slowly go down unless they crash. I can come up with a number of reasons why they would crash lower. But I just don't see it happening in the data yet. And with tariffs just now, actually coming into being, I think that has the potential to at least keep them at elevated rates, even if they don't take off and go.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm of the opinion that it's somewhat nuanced. I feel like most people I talk to were either. And there's not a whole lot of middle ground, and I find myself very much in the middle ground. I expect markets to be higher over the next couple years, but I don't think it's going to be a straight line. And I think it's going to be very volatile. And I don't think interest rates and inflation are coming down very much unless they crash lower. So, you know, if there is some kind of a market event or economic event that causes markets to crash and therefore take prices and economic growth with it, then I think we could see lower inflation. But I am not expecting just a slow drip lower from three and a half to one and a half percent inflation and the stair step lower of interest rates from, call it four and a half to two and a half or whatever it is. I think they pretty much stay where they're at or go higher unless they crash lower. Now I'm not playing the crash lower.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Always a golden bug at the time And always interested in stores of value. So I reached out to Brent cold and I was like, hey, you're in San Francisco I grabbed a coffee with him, and I think Brent's wife is like, you think that guy's gay? He's reaching out to you for a date?”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Then I'll take it one further. Obviously, like Brett was on one of the very first episodes of Real Vision, and he was. I forget he was talking about gold, the gold market back then, and it's now coming to fruition like 10 years later.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, the funny thing is I'm gonna embarrass Tyler a little bit. Yes. So it's probably 10 years ago I was at work and I got, I don't remember if it was a text message or an email and it was somebody saying, you know, hey, I don't know if they'd seen a presentation or something, but wanted to get together for coffee or something. So we got together. It was Tyler and we're talking and we were living in San Francisco. He asked me where I lived in San Francisco, and I said, I live up on Knob Hill. And he said, Oh, I live on Knob Hill. And he said, Yeah, I live just north of Grace Cathedral. And I said, Well, I live just north of Grace Cathedral. We literally lived right across the street from each other. Like the fact that we had not bumped into each other already was kind of wild. So anyway, that's how we got to be friends.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Everything's at its all-time high. Inflation's not falling fast, and their cutting rates, the trend followers are 95% long. What does that say about everybody else that they're following? July was the first time in 25 years of doing this that every little single thing that I looked at told me to sell. This is a time to at a minimum have cash on the sideline. This is the type of an environment in which you could have a pretty strong drawdown pretty quickly.”
2025-08-15 · Forward Guidance · Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT