YouSaid · the spoken record

Rupert Mitchell

lines on the record: 121
first: 2024-04-04
most recent: 2024-04-04
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Worry, it still existed as a religion throughout that. And I think we are, I was pointing out the other day and I'm forgetting his name, Sean Fane, who's the head of the UAW. He was the same weekend as the Oscars come out Motor Trend has their personalities of the year, the top 100 people in Global Auto. A number one pick for 2024 was Sean Fane of the United Auto Workers Union. Now, I think we could well be entering a phase whereby... The union bosses are once again hassled names. That was also a pretty good time for gold.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In US terms, I guess, I mean, the 1930s, I guess, but you couldn't really own it. But I mean, gold had a tremendous bull run from 1971 or 73 to 1981. But then bear market, brutal bear market from the 80s to 2000, bull market from 2000, 2013.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so is this going to be our fathers or our grandfathers precious metal bull runs? I don't think so, right? I think that gold is a great asset right now. And I think the right kind of people are buying it. If central bankers are buying it, they're bigger than anyone else. That's great news. You want to be buying what they're buying, not what your grandpa used to buy during this cycle. Now, when I first started in the industry in the early 90s, we used to joke with our friends' parents who were, you know, gold bugs have been around since markets existed. And we always used to joke about our friends, parents that were, you know, Reading whatever the 1980s, early 1990s version of high-tech strategist was. And we used to tease them. And we are now in our 50s and we're buying gold stocks as well.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Had a positive buyback yield on a trailing 12-month basis. The thing about miners is when they make their money, what do they want to do? They want to dig another hole, right? And I don't think the capital allocation memo has got to these mining stocks yet, which means that aside from a bit of a flourish of FOMO that we might be seeing right now since the beginning of March, we've seen a big catch-up trade by the miners. But if you look at a longer dated chart of just GLD versus GDX, right, they've been lagging for a while, right? And they've really only just woken up in the last cup, yeah, last month, basically.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Guess where? It all brings us back to options. No, but that was basically the point of my note. The other thing is with the miners, I went through this exercise. I mean, I love Hickey and I've subscribed to him, his high-tech strategist for years. And there's nothing that he doesn't know about the operations and reserves and gold and silver miners. And he will pick the ones that make the most money in this cycle without a doubt. The question for me is whether or not they end up being great stocks. Now, I went through the entire universe of gold and silver miners in the GDX and the GDXJ ETFs the other day, and I dumped them in and just looked at, I sorted the 150 names by buyback yield. We're back to buybacks, Jack. Only 10 of the 150 names.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Even more aggressive though by GDXJ, and if they're even more aggressive, they buy 30 Delta call options on DXJ, GDXJ rather. And I'm just not so sure that that cycle plays out if the starting point is a different type of buying. And so, but you can still get leverage on that gold trade. Guess where? The option market.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of this recent buying of gold is from the predominantly Asian central banks, right? If you look at the shares outstanding in the GLD TF as a proxy for retail ownership in gold, it's just been going down in a straight line since the peak during the COVID summer of 2020. One thing that Asian central banks don't do is, well, not since the 16th century have they bought silver. And the other thing that they certainly don't do is buy Newmont mining or barrett gold, right? And so ultimately what you are counting on is that the move in gold attracts the institutional FOMO crowd who can't buy GLD because their stock pickers aren't they. So they buy new month or they buy Barrack and if they a bit more aggressive they buy GDX and if they're”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think the broader point is that everything else is underperformed, and particularly cash has underperformed relative to gold. Yes, we've finally got the explosive new all-time high breakout. And yeah, it's great. And I'm long and I'm excited for the gold bulls. I really am. What I was saying in my note over the weekend is that I'm not so sure that the miners, the precious metal miners stocks follow the precious run because I think that a lot of this buying.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The original WhatsApp chat where blind squirrel macro was born was alive with Goldbug, Goldbug chatter over the weekend. They can't believe that I am not tooting the horn for the miners. Well, first point on gold, actually, as a US investor, U.S. saver, yeah, it's been pretty boring for the last couple of years. But try telling a Chinese or a Japanese or an Australian holder of gold. They're dealing with rotator cup injuries from fist pumping because they've done so well on their gold investments.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Don't do that. You put an order in at mid and you have to sit there and watch it and move it a penny there, five cents there until you get filled at a fair price. Absolutely.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, but listen, even if you are trading options on XLE, right, you're not going to want to put in a market order, right? I mean, to be honest, I think anyone that's trading options in their own account, right, has already sort of self-qualified for a certain degree of financial literacy and sophistication. And if you've got that degree of financial literacy and sophistication, you're not putting in a market order on an option, right? Because you're just making Ken Griffin richer if you do that.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Absolutely. My point was only if someone is trading a tiny stock that no one's ever heard of, but a stock that's not Apple or NVIDIA and they have a long-dated option position on that and they want to roll their option. The spread might be $9.20, $10.50. In that case, that's going to take their entire day to trade and they might have a, you know, they probably have a job that maybe it's not in finance. So just people should be aware of when you say it's easy, it's easy for you because you're a pro and if people aren't a pro, they shouldn't assume that it's going to be as easy for them as it is for a pro such as yourself or shrub, you know? Yeah.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I've got no issue with that. It's just I'm not really in the single stock recommendation game. I have my favorite children in my tyre basket and in my refiner basket, but am I going to say, guys, you need to be in Phillips 66 above all. Yeah, you can probably tell from my note, right? Yeah, I've picked on Goodyear. As the stop in the basket to add an option element to. But there's a story behind that. There's the turnaround story related to the Elliott activism and the new CEO. But the same rule applies, Jack, in terms of a large enough single stock, you can, I mean, if you look at the Microsoft Opt and Chain or you look at the ExxonMobil option chain, you can absolutely do the same thing.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“ETFs, sector ETFs. I mean, the option market is so liquid and so deep, right? In the US, I'm talking about. And you can get good execution in some European markets, but options in Japan is a bit of a waste of time. Options down here in Australia is a bit of a waste of time. Ultimately, But with the sophistication of the ETF market now, you can get all sorts of global exposures. You want, look at the option chain in iShares Brazil, the EWZ, right? Trades like water.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This option is going to behave more and more like a stock, right? You're losing your leverage to the upside, but you're also getting more volatility. And so, yeah, active management to the extent that you're always keeping the leverage in the trade by, you know, you start with a stock at 100, you've bought an option struck at 120 or 130, the stock moves up to 130. Maybe you want to think about moving, rolling up your strike. Maybe at the same time you push out a bit more maturity. Yeah, I wouldn't call that. That's the kind of position management that I can manage on a 15 hour time difference, right? I just need to set an alarm occasionally to wake up for 3 p.m. Eastern.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“and the advantage of the non recourse leverage. I used to call the option market the poor man's prime broker, right? The advantage of the very cheap leverage outweighs your further downside risk in implied volatilities, to my mind. Now, in terms of the active management point is that Say you pick the right assets to be levered long on via options, right, you start by perhaps buying a slightly out of money option. And over time, if you've made the right call and you've picked the underlying asset,”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Being treasury. And they're doing a really good job of it, right? Because the only thing that upsets the Apple cart with respect to their game plan, I think, which is just to deflate away all of this debt that we've got, they only get away with that if there are no nasty surprises. So vol events, market events, massive risk-off events are kryptonite for Janet Yellen and her friends, right? And so they are in the volatility suppression game. And so I'm not saying that Vols going back up a lot, right? Because there are too many vested interests that want to keep it down, right? And they understand how the system works. All I'm saying is that it's very, very cheap, right? And it's not where you're going to get undone, right?”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There are some options strategies which you really can go to the beach, right? What I'm saying is that, well, there are two things to think about. So let's deal with volatility first, right? I'm not saying that volatility can't go down further. Listen, I think that central bankers are full-time employed these days in the volatility compression game. They want the VIX down every day. They want the move index down every day.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So I don't disagree with you at all. I would dare disagree with you on the factual matter that long dated options allow people to get access to very cheap leverage and instead of getting a margin borrowing at 10% with their retail broker, they can borrow at with 5.5% baked in, which you can't do unless you're a hedge fund or institutional client of a prime broker. But I also think it introduces complexity. Long stocks and you're using margin with that expensive 10% rate, it is a lot easier. It's just buying and selling as opposed to trading vol anytime you have an options position, you're trading ball and trading vall is a totally different ballgame from trading stocks or investing in stocks. Have to roll them constantly, so you have to manage these things. It's not like you can just go to the beach, you know”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Row has been, which is the effect of interest rates on an option price, had been a raised from collective consciousness by Zerp, right? And actually, I wrote a piece with Scooby-Doo on the cover just before Christmas titled Ro, which I thought was hilarious. I keep myself amused, Jack. But actually, the premise around that was... Not something that I advocate now because I've had a sort of Damascene conversion on being short risk of any sort right now. But I was just pointing out that the price of an S&P, a long dated S&P put Was baking in Level of interest rates that probably isn't going to stay there for very long, right? Same thing on the flip side. I think that Vol at these levels Interest rates are what they are, they're baked in, but having leverage on assets that you can't be stopped out of.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“By Greek, sorry, I'm talking about option maths, not the language. You already had my friend the shrub on the other day. He's the one that actually speaks Greek. What I'm saying here is, I mean, I already write a lot about options. And there's usually an option element to the baskets that I put together, particularly if it involves sort of US listed underlying stocks, because that's where the best option market is. But the... What I'm saying is that Long dated Val is as cheap as it's ever been Yes, higher rates of interest are baked into the forward price for assets right now, but yet”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You can't afford to be stopped out of these trades. It's a bit like the US homeowner with their 30-year mortgage in a fantastic position versus someone that can fix maybe for three or five years in the UK market or the Australian market, you can be stopped out of that trade. Now, there is one way you can get non-recourse leverage at institutional pricing, and that's far the options market. And so, I mean, I write a lot about options. I have a derivatives background. I'm not a quant. I mean, I did French and Spanish literature at university. I'm not a quant, but it was my job to translate what the French PhDs on my derivative trading desk were structuring for my corporate clients. I speak Greek, but I probably don't think.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You do want to be levered long, i.e. short the currency, levered long, levered long assets wherever possible. Now, I'm not advocating that everyone should be opening margin accounts. Absolutely not, right? Because you need to be.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As a sort of base view. But that's not really a perfect view because I'm actually pretty negative fiat currency and I'd rather own the dollar than most other fiat currencies. I wrote a piece on gold last weekend, and it's just always amazing if you look at any asset class priced in gold, right? It's all been pretty atrocious, right? The traders mean to be short paper currencies long anything else. And I think that Generally, this sort of rising tide for real assets has to be at the top of your thinking all the time, right? And I... Ultimately, we're not all in a position to be able to walk into Jamie Diamond's office and get non-recourse leverage over a cash flow generating asset for a long period of time. But you do want to be”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's really happening this time. Sorry, we started on a deflation topic on this. I mean, is that necessarily deflationary, right? Going to be able to develop life changing drugs. Far more efficiently, isn't that going to extend working lives? Isn't that going to, I mean, so, I mean, what I'm saying is that oversimplifying these things is inevitably a mistake. So, Macro, I'm an inflation Easter, if I had to style myself. I try not to get too stuck in the weeds on this thing. I mean, there have been people that have been... Stubbornly stuck in the defacian camp for a very expensive few years. And some of them won't ever reform. But you've got to be flexible in this game, intellectually flexible in this game. I do, I'm a commodity bull, which by definition probably means that I'm... Neutral negative on the dollar.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, what I found extraordinary was that biotech had chronically underperformed since sort of AI hit investor consciousness with ChatGPT in whenever it was November 22. And the biotech industry has been using large language models. I mean, for 15 years they've been talking about large language models and AI in drug development. And I thought, you know, surely this is, surely this is the big beneficiary. But I think actually, you know, we are in a little bit of an everything rally, but biotech has woken up for the first time in quite some time. And I think that, I mean, I've got a couple of my readers that are deeply in the weeds in the sector, and they both got in touch with me after I wrote about it and said, yeah, it's.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And let's be very clear, I am not a biotech expert. I have always outsourced my views. I mean, I spent a small period of time where I had a very good healthcare team when I was running capital markets for Jeffreys in London. I had a very good healthcare team. But doing capital raisings for phase two, phase three FDA, biotech stocks, it's a bit like a constant game of Russian roulette. You never knew when you were going to blow up your institutional clients with a failed drug trial.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's the biggest uplift in 35 years, 33 years, something like that. I mean, the only one. That I still don't have a strong view on is technology, is artificial intelligence truly going to change everything, everything we do? Yeah, I think it's really important. I'm not going to do a sort of Paul Krugman fax machine type statement, but I certainly think it's no bueno when it comes to the Indian ICT sector, for example. But I've already been surprised just how. I've already been surprised. Just how easy it is to run in the wrong direction on this stuff. I wrote a piece about the biotech sector the other day.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I disagree with the premise that demographics is deflationary, right? I actually think an awful lot, a smaller labor force and a lot of dependent old people is influenced.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“drives where I'm looking for themes, right? So I'm looking to express my macro views with interesting themes. I mean, listen, I don't have analyst. I don't have a team of analysts sitting behind me, you know, pouring through 10Ks and 10 cues every day. So I have to take a sort of a slightly 50,000 foot approach to two themes. That's why invariably I will go with a basket of names rather than a name because directionally I feel more comfortable that I've got a chance of getting it right. In terms of where I am high level, I am in a I'm in the camp that we're in in an inflationary world, right? So I never bought into the 3Ds that meant that deflation was our natural destiny.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“About I spend over half my time looking at macro as a theme. I try not to write about it too much because it's a crowd. It's a crowded. And people like you do such a great job of getting off getting intelligence speakers on to talk about what that Fed speaker might be intimating or what that. I absorb it all, right? And ultimately it absolutely...”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's trading at a discount. And so Sing has gone after those guys. But I was going for the UK mid-cap play, I think, you know, UK mid-caps have just got too cheap. And, you know, I am a little bit worried about the sterling risk. But don't listen to me on sterling. I'm a terrible trader of Sterling, but I just taken the view. I'm taking a classic sort of Price's truth trend follower approach to hedging it. So I'm just looking at a simple 30-day, 50-day crossover on cable, on US dollar GBP. If Sterling is trending positively, I'll own the investment trusts unhedged. If it's negatively trending, I'll be fully hedged up into dollars.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Also, our friend Paul Singer's back with the investment trust market, but he's not taking on the mid-cap targets. He's come after Scottish mortgage trust, which, by the way, has got nothing to do with Scotland and nothing to do with mortgages, or nothing to do with Scottish mortgages. It's actually, it basically looks quite a lot like ARC.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Mid cap investment trust. Now, these are closed end funds in the UK. And they are actively managed by Blue Chip, you know, the JPMorgans, the BlackRocks, the Aberdeens of this world. They're managed by proper stock pickers that are meeting with management teams every quarter. And so I'm really happy to outsource that legwork to those guys. And I bought a basket of five of these UK investment trusts that are trading at double digit discounts to NAV. And the trust busters have come visiting the UK investment trust market as they do every couple of decades. This time it's Sava Capital. It's Bose Winesby.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm a Brit that hasn't lived in the UK for a long period of time. But, you know, I operated as a banker in London for years. I mainly did overseas stuff while I was there. I didn't do a lot of domestic business, if I'm completely honest. But there was a spell when I did quite a lot, and particularly in the mid-cap space. I mean, there's a lot of very well, well-managed global businesses that sit in the FTSE 250. you know, they're not necessarily hugely hung on the domestic economy, but as you go out of the FTSE 100 into the FTSE 250, it's more domestic. Now, my play on that, I mean, I'm not stockpicking UK mid-caps, right? My approach was a much more macro approach, which was looking at the”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“These days, particularly in the mid cap space, is to see if the company's working for you too. And I'm not just talking about operating the business well. I'm talking about actively. impacting the register.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, yeah, Minister of Finance. So, I mean, I remember vividly the day that the Swiss franc depegged. And, you know, 100,000 households in Poland saw their mortgage mortgage balance grow by 30% overnight because they'd been sold Swiss franc denominated mortgages in Poland. Go figure that. But carries a short volley. Never forget it. Momentum, well, everything's momentum these days. But if you're a classically trained corporate financier, it feels a little bit dirty to be in a momentum trade. But, you know, everyone's got a do it. And then there's mean reversion trades. And that is the value investor, right? And we do the work and we do the numbers and we, you know, we're right, but we can be wrong for a very long time. And I think the only way to protect yourself if you're a value investor.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Get lucky, but who knows? Well, you just have to be a very patient human being because, you know I think I've stolen this from Louis Garve, right? Who's an old mate from Hong Kong? There are three types of trade in the world. There's carry trades now carry trades are for wealthy people with huge balance sheets that don't mind being short volt because it's all very well borrowing in yen and being long Brazilian or Mexican short dated paper. The Moffin Tokyo wakes up and says, no mass in terms of their currency weakness.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But, you know, I'm a big believer in particularly for outside of megacap names. It's the first screen right now. What's this management team doing with its share count? I do believe, and it's kind of sad to have to admit that it's come down to that. But unless there's a decent corporate bid for the stock. It's going to struggle to compete in value land.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, I'm not in there. There are almost some tribal wars emerging about whether or not you prefer the Valaris story or the TransOcean story. It's almost like the Jocks and the Jordies. I'm in the kind of why not own both camp. I understand the whole capital allocation argument Riggs got to pay back an awful lot of debt before it combined too much of its own stock, whereas Valaris has got a clean skin from a balance sheet perspective. I see merits in both stories. And as in a world where so much of the market, particularly in these names, is market neutral long short players. There are massive books of Long Valaris, short rig, and vice versa. You might as well own both and get a little bit less volatility.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I published it and my subscriber base grew by about a thousand overnight. And I thought, oh crap, this really is crowded. And then I was thinking, oh God, oh God, I really, I've really cooled the top on this market. And then 10 days later, there was a Pareto conference in Oslo. And it was standing room only. And that was literally the top of the interim top for the sector, which is only just recovering from now. So I'm afraid I rang a mini bell on the sector loss September, but I'm hugely constructive on it right now. I really like it. I mean, alongside my, I prefer talking about my refiner trade because there are less people talking about it, but I love my offshore names. And I think...”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I published my Acorn report on offshore with a huge degree of trepidation last September, right? Having owned these things, you know, oh God, I'm going to jinx this if I write about it. And I was also a bit concerned that, and frankly, you know, there are a lot of very noisy people on Twitter talking about the offshore services sector. I mean, super smart, don't get me wrong, super smart people. And I think it's a really interesting space. Throughout last summer, I was beginning to think, God, is this getting a little bit crowded? Saw a tweet which was a picture of the Barclays Energy Conference last September where transition was presenting to an empty room. I think it was TransOcean, I can't quite remember. Oh my god, there's nobody there. I said, right, I am definitely writing this up now. Then what happened?”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh listen, I think that all it takes is a few bloody bankruptcies for management teams to get religion around how to operate these things. The wonderful thing about my scorecard is that I have been long the offshore names, I mean, Valaris out of bankruptcy. I've been in and out of TransOcean for years. I love the OSV plays, the PSV plays like Tidewater, Weatherford I've owned for a long time.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Absolutely, most improved kid, but the economic incentives are there as well, right? So his RSUs will pay out on a formula that is timestamped on the lows.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't think the market cap reflects that at all right now. I think that the new CEO did what we call in Britain a kitchen sink job with the last set of earnings. Every last bad number would have been stuck into that full year earnings number. If you look at the initial gap in earnings, if you've got a chart up now, then there was a 9-10% gap down. That gap post earnings has now closed. I'm actually really excited about an entry-level here. And that gap has closed a lot quicker than I was expecting it to. When I wrote my note on the sector, I said, I did say, listen, watch out. We've got a new CEO coming out with his made in earnings in a couple of weeks time. You may want to hold your breath. Going to track it from here.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Paul Singer's laundry list of things that he wants seeing done. So I'm along a basket of the big five global tyre players, so Pirelli, Michelin, Bridgestone, Goodyear, and also Continental and Germany. But that's actually been the underperformer in the bar. In there, sort of auto tech, they've actually got quite a big component business around ADAS driver assistance technology and other sort of smart techie bits around the modern car. So the tyre story is a little bit diluted. I think that the biggest upside in that basket is probably the Goodyear story with this turnaround. I think they're going to get serious about capital allocation as well.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Probably find that they've issued a ton of shares since then as well. So it's not really a like for like. Well, I think it's an interesting turnaround story. It's a four billion. I mean, four billion dollar market cap for the US tire producer. Okay. I mean, they also, they're in the midst of a restructuring. They've got a new CEO who used to be the chief operating officer of Stilantis. They've got Elliot breathing down their neck that followed by seem to be following Paul Singer around everywhere recently. But they've got Elliot taking an activist position. Elliot was behind the recent restructuring that they announced at the end of last year. They are selling off a bunch of assets with this new CEO who's got a compensation package which makes him a very, very wealthy man if he pulls off even half of.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Could pretty quickly become four thousand dollars. And this is a cost plus pass-through business tyres. The growth in the top line for those businesses, and that's just ignoring the effects of inflation for now. I'm a bit of an inflation bull, but I think just the industry structure effect could see some spectacular nominal revenue growth for the tire industry. And there's been, I mean, there's been some sort of nonsense antitrust moves against the tire makers recently. I mean, I just don't understand how they can be accused of cartel pricing when their margins are as wafer thin as they are. I mean, you know, if they really are monopolists, then they really should be making a lot more money than they are.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“With Philip 66. And these guys are classic cannibals. They're buying back those stairs. Now, why do I bring up the refiners apart from to sort of showcase a winner is the tire industry, right? You know that 60, 60% of the content of a tire is synthetic rubber, which comes from it's a byproduct of the refining process. Right now, the tire industry gets most of its synthetic rubber from the Rahinus for nothing, right? Because refiners make all of their money from selling gasoline, right? That's where the true source of their margin comes from. Now, if ICE cards being pushed off the road, gasoline demand drops. We still need these refiners to carry on operating because we're not going to stop having a plastics industry. We're not going to stop having a tyre industry. You know, your $600 for a set of four new tires.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And, you know, this is a classic sort of monopoly in the making, you know, hated sector, you know, owning an oil refiner was the equivalent of clubbing a baby seal as far as ESG was concerned. But US has not built a new oil refiner since 1977. That was when the original Star Wars came out, right? And, you know, the sector has consolidated around a small handful of independent players, right? And it's a sector which is spectacularly well managed because it's a really tough industry to get right and a sector that really cares about capital allocation. And Elliot, Paul Sillinger's Elliot's been very successfully breathed down the neck of marathon petroleum. He's now on the...”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT