YouSaid · the spoken record

Rupert Mitchell

lines on the record: 121
first: 2024-04-04
most recent: 2024-04-04
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Difficult to answer that question. A company that is a Chinese incorporated company, right, can have an A share listed in Shanghai and an H share listed in Hong Kong. It's two classes of the same share capital, right? I don't think necessarily you should be worried about discrimination on that front between A&H. I think that where the focus of investor concern really historically has been on the construction of these VIEs, these variable interest entities, which was where essentially corporates of corporates that own businesses that were regarded as quasi-strategic assets were listing, if you like, a tracking stock. Yeah, I think the best analog to this is like US tracking stocks.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And is there a risk that non-A shares will be treated worse off than A shares? In other words, oh, you're a British investor in London. Screw you. But okay, oh, you're actually a Chinese citizen. Okay, fine. We'll treat you okay.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Asia is a domestic listing, right? All of the big Chinese state-owned banks will have A shares, but then they'll also have an H share in Hong Kong. And so there used to be a big business of if you had the right regulatory approval of arbitrage activity between the A-shares and the eight shares on Hong Kong. An A-share listed domestically on Shanghai or Shenzhen is just for domestic investors and for qualified foreign investors.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“9988, sorry I used to be really good at numerical stop codes at something, something that sort of dipping with age, I think.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There is no difference between, well, I mean, 10c doesn't have an ADR. That's a bad example. The difference between barbar and whatever the ticker, let me look it up for you here before we drive each other. I think it is, is it 788?”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, okay, got it. So I guess maybe a better question would be what's the difference between 10c, the A share onshore, not in Hong Kong, but onshore, Shanghai, I believe, is 700. That's just the number.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's no, no, the 10 cents is 700. So this is, we are doing the whole Eskimo snow description here. Baba was originally listed as an ADR only. Subsequently, a few years ago when noises were being made about delisting Chinese equities at the sort of at the height of the sort of trade war under the Trump administration, a lot of the big Chinese tech companies started doing what they called the sort of the going home trade, where they listed. An ADR is a depository receipt that represents underlying shares. What they did, what Alibaba did was to relist the underlying shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. So they're the same shares. Just in New York, you're buying a depository receipt on the same shares instead of the underlying shares themselves, which are listed on Hong Kong.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And then, what is the difference between an ADR, like an American depository receipt, or something listed in the West, and then an onshore stock? Like, for example, Alibaba, the Western ticker, you know, that we all know is Baba. But the actual ticker number, is it 700?”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So QFII is the other way around. I mean, it's control capital cat. As a foreign investor, you can access domestic A-shares as a foreigner through the northbound Hong Kong Shanghai Connect. Similarly, you can, as an onshore investor access Hong Kong stocks through the Southband Connect. Unless you're using the connect, which is a kind of closed loop system, you need to be a qualified foreign investor, either inbound or outbound. That's a separate level of regulatory approval.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To capital offshore, right? It's a closed capital account. So you're not able to participate in a Hong Kong IPO or a Nasdaq listed ADR unless you've got money offshore.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I mean, I was never doing domestic IPOs on Shanghai or Shenzhen, right? So that's a much more retail-oriented market, although, as you correctly point out, the unit of saving in China is not equities necessarily at the top of the list. It is very much real estate at the top of the list. And even if you think about the super wealthy in China, right, it's domestic real estate, then it's overseas real estate if they can get money offshore and then they might start thinking about other financial assets. But the audience for the deals that I was doing was institutional money around the world and then a growing pocket of institutional money in China itself. And then there was the famous friends and family money that I was talking about, which was essentially Chinese millionaires and billionaires who have access.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so I want to get your current views on China in a minute. But just to be clear, so back in your days doing initial public offerings and helping sell Chinese stocks in Hong Kong and list them or in the rest of the world, who was the client base? In other words, I have learned that Chinese citizen, Chinese investor, if they have savings, they park their marginal savings dollar much more in real estate than they do in stocks. Whereas in the US, definitely more of a stock market culture. So who are sort of the buyers of Chinese stocks internationally and then domestically?”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Linnea had misery guts Russell Napier on talking about China the other week. By the way, huge, huge fan of Russell. I mean, one of the most frustrating things about Being an Asian expert for a lot of my career was I used to visit New York three or four times a year and get lectured by someone 10 years younger than me in midtown about how China was doomed and find out how halfway through the conversation that they'd never actually been there. And oftentimes the most negative views were coming from the furthest point on the compass away from the real story itself. There is no doubt that there are structural issues with the Chinese economy. But writing off 30% of global GDP doesn't seem like a smart starting point.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not really. And actually, I noticed you've had quite a couple of quite positive guests on China recently. I was listening to one that you put out yesterday, I think.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“China hot money hands instead of regular way institutional hands internationally. And so those stocks used to get orphaned as well. And then we'd get a cycle back into some degree of normality. The Hong Kong IPO market, I'm afraid, is a ghost of what it was 15 years ago.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A VIE, which is the variable interest entity, and that's an additional layer of. Know structuring that comes in, and yes, on paper, there's not a lot that the owner of a share of shares in a VIE do actually own. But I used to joke that during that phase, there was almost an extra class of Chinese listing, which was the Z share or the zombie share, where the listing had been created in order to establish a foreign listing and that actually it was usually the chairman and his mates that controlled 100% of the float anyway. But you had two types of deal at that stage. You'd have these types of friends and family deal going on and then you'd also have occasionally some really interesting business that would come to the market. And then those stocks would get orphaned in a different way because that would be where everyone in the international wake up and say this is an amazing stock, this is an amazing story. And then it would price at sort of stupid times earnings and it would actually end up getting placed all into China.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You only really own it if you've managed to get it offshore, and one of the best ways to get wealth offshore is to have your company traded overseas. You know, we went through a phase whereby Chinese deals were getting done, but they were getting done in an unnatural manner. They were known affectionately as friends and family transactions. And then we had a pretty tricky phase in the sort of the mid-2010s where you either had two types of deal. I mean, in Hong Kong, Chinese overseas listings are known as A shares or eight shares, eight shares being the Hong Kong shares, the overseas, and A shares being the ones listed domestically. And you also have another type of company called a redshift, which is a Chinese business that's actually domiciled offshore.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It went through a bunch of various cycles in the sort of post GFC era, well actually even in the run-up to the GFC era, you had a massive bull market in Asian and Chinese stocks. And the busiest IPO market on the planet for a decade. I mean, I remember being back in London for a while, and it was really only the Asian teams that had an IPO business, Europe hadn't been doing any IPOs for years during the mid-00s. And it goes through cycles. I mean, there was obviously the phase where nobody could get enough China equity, right? And then you have the droughts, but the IPO market in China always used to carry on anyway, even if there wasn't necessarily a huge amount of international demand for the paper, simply because ultimately if you've established any wealth in China,”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm a recovering investment banker. I spent 25 years on the sell side in London and in Asia, in Hong Kong. I did most jobs on the private side of the Chinese wall. I started at life as an M&A banker and became a capital markets banker, picked up an interest in derivatives through running a convertible bond business. That turned into a broader derivatives mandate. ultimately spent the last 10 years of my sell side career mostly taking Asian and mainly Chinese companies public in London and New York. I then spent a few years in industry. I worked for a Chinese electric car startup and a couple of years ago I moved down to Melbourne, Australia and where I do a bit of consulting and I started blind squirrel macro back then.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Thank you. I'm also a huge fan of yours. And yes, you are recording early in the morning from Australia. So you're here bright-eyed and bushy-tailed. Rupert, how about you tell the audience a little bit about your background in finance and in industry as well?”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Thanks. Thanks, Jack. I'm delighted to be only early in the day here, but I hope I sound wide awake. Really, really great to meet you. I've been watching your show since it started. And a huge fan.”
2024-04-04 · Forward Guidance · Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT