YouSaid · the spoken record

Tommy Thornton

lines on the record: 93
first: 2024-07-28
most recent: 2024-07-28
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Up, I'll give you the special rate. And that's it. You know, I love doing what I'm doing and happy to have any questions, commentary shot my way as well.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“England ghastly, but yeah, it's yeah, I mean, long term I'm fine, but I tend to look at it, I'm long short, starting to see some, you know, opportunities arise, long and short side, and it'll be fine. I'm not too worried. But, you know, reach out, shoot me an email again, info at hedge fund telemetry.com if you have any questions. I try to educate people with demarc indicators on how they work when they don't work and how to make money using them. Market sentiment stuff is really valuable. I had a very large hedge fund manager say that he can't live without my charts, my sentiment charts without looking at them every day. And I thought that was cool. So, yeah, I'm there. It's annual subscription. We have a special, but so if you hit me.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Newsletter. I post two to three notes a day and a few on the weekend and they'd go through the week ahead and I look at the mark indicators, market sentiment. I have some trade ideas that are on there. I have webinars that I do, stuff. It's just a lot. And basically you can reach out to me You can take a trial with the trials are $150. It's a month trial. I don't do free trials anymore because you know who you are, you just kept doing free trials and such. But it goes through the mindset of what I'm looking at technically with market sentiment. I have some fundamental stuff in there. And again, my performance has been, you know, as they say in...”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I did it because it's like there's so much spammers and people that do impersonations. And someone I know I don't really know that well, but he's like, are you going to refund me my money on email? I was like, what are you talking about? But he got scammed on that from somebody that for some, I don't know, whatever happened. But yeah, it's a cesspool on there. But if you request it and then shoot me an email at info at hedge fund telemetry, I will approve you. I don't mean to sound like elitist or anything like that, but it is, you know, people promising, you know, thousand percent returns in three days. That's what her following me these days. But I meant also hedge fund telemetry and I started hedge fund telemetry, which is a data site.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, look, I think that there were a lot of people that were really smart value people that saw the writing on the wall, but they didn't, you know, they were sort of just like, this is just absurd. And it wasn't that I wasn't naive to the dangers of what was coming. It just was sort of stark warning from someone of that stature to tell you that, you know, your fund's going to be out of business. And I was like, yikes. But it was true. He was right. So kudos to Charlie Munger. But then again, in finance, you go through these periods of ups and downs and you learn from those and you grow from those. And I certainly did. It's embarrassing in some regard, but it was, you know, sometimes telling embarrassing. stories in learning from them it was good it was it was um it was humbling”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That was like sort of badass, you know, here I am this younger guy, you know, a big fan of yours, blah, blah, blah. And he just was in a bad mood and just stuck it to me. But yeah, that was eye-opening. But he was right because the fun that I worked at, the founder of the company passed away. And yeah, lo and behold, the fun closed. I had to go and launch my own fund and do other things after that.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I had always been sort of a Warren Buffett fan and Charlie Munger fan and studied a lot of stuff that they did. And I was, you know, I'm a level one CFA past person that I never went back because I got drafted to work at a hedge fund and I had zero time with family and hedge fund and life. But I got enough understanding of the value process. I told him I worked at a hedge fund and he kind of looked at me and he goes, you're going to be out of business. It was really stark. It was not kind of what I wanted to hear. Like, congratulations, that's so great. I'm so happy for you. He just gave me this total Charlie Munger in your face. And what I did is I went out and I bought a Berkshire Hathaway stock. After that, I bought the A-shares and I still have it. And I just figured.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I lived in Los Angeles. I worked at a hedge fund that was a long short hedge fund science and technology fund. And it was a great time for those companies going into 2000 because you had the whole genomics stuff that was happening, semiconductors were ripping. And it was hard to beat, really. But I will remember this vividly. I was at a golf club that he was a member of. I was a guest. And I ran into him and I was like, oh my God, that's Charlie.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Some sort of weakness that creates sort of a vacuum lower where you don't have the natural buyer of a short to cushion the blow when they cover. So that's sort of a risk in itself.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's like you call in your office, what's going on? Yeah. But yeah, so Again, I'm not at a place where I'm, you know, Max Short. I think you got to test the waters on some short ideas at this point and see how the bounces react. I think that, again, I think people have jumped into the small cap names a little premature because I don't think earnings are going to be that great. There hasn't been We haven't seen good earnings. There's no reason for earnings to increase in these small cap names, especially with rates real high, with consumers slowing. I think that it's just premature to get involved there. And I think that you have a lot of people that have just sort of squeezed, you know, were squeezed higher and people that have chased a short squeeze, which if you don't have the shorts involved, and let's say that there's”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, when do I ever take any time off? I mean, it's just, But I also love what I do, so it's hard for me to take off anyway because I'm always looking at my phone and my wife yells at me.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Stimulus and things like that. I think that's going to be a high bar for them as well. So again, things go in cycles they used to. And the more narrow action that we've had puts more pressure on those big name companies, big cat companies to perform and not just do good, but do great. So positioning, sentiment, exhaustion signals, you know, all these things sort of line up for prices that should decline. Again, you've had a decent pullback on some names going into earnings next week. Next week's going to be jam-packed. I was hoping to take a couple days off, but not going to happen.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They used to, I think a lot of active managers like myself would be very welcoming to a 10% pullback. I've said that I thought the market would pull back 10% could overshoot that. I think that if we move down 10%, you're most likely going to get market sentiment readings that are going to get oversold. You could get some DeMarc signals that show buy signals. And then we'll play that. But I think what could happen is then we undercut the highs and start this zigzag type period down. So I think that's kind of the thing that's generally how I see the pattern playing out, especially with, again, you're going to have a new administration that I think is going to face some challenges. I don't think they're going to have the ability to fund the things like with all the goodies and tax breaks or”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“2000, we had an election that was contested and that caused all sorts of problems, but it was also coming at the backdrop of earnings starting to decline and slow. And that exacerbated everything as well. So sometimes things happen again. And, you know, that was after a long expansion as well in the market and maybe a more broad expansion at that point off the lows. So I think we've had too much too fast. We'll get the market to pull back. We'll study what's going on and get in there and buy when CNBC is telling everybody how to short stocks.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A challenge, but certainly I think that the move that we've had so far has created a bit of a bubblish type move. And I think that it's just, it's a cycle. It's timing. We've had really two years of really strong or year and a half of very, very strong market action. we're overdue and the upside exhaustion signals on the weekly timeframe when I see that start to develop and then start to roll over as they have that leads me to believe that we are going to see further decreases in prices and on the indices and that is welcomed by me. I'm very flexible as far as having that open-minded action. Again, I'd be very, very happy to see the indices pull back. We're coming into a seasonal period that's a little bit more tricky. Again, we have an election. We have two polarized parties. I think that, again, in 1999.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, the problem in this market is that the prices would overshoot dramatically in that regard as they have even currently with multiple expansion so high. So it would be very hard for me to chase that and it would be very hard for me to envision all those things happening. Maybe a couple of them.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So that's starting to decrease. I'd like to see it get down into 20% bulls on that. It's at 50% right now. And 50% is sort of like make or break level. Are you going to have more of a majority on the bearish or bullish? And it was 88% recently. That was a good sign. But that's what's going to turn me constructively bullish if we see valuations come down a bit. They don't have to become ultra cheap valuations. But if I get, again, if I get 75% of the indicators that I use turn to more, you know, swing to the bullish side, I'll get long. And usually when I do that, I go on a program or talk to my subscribers and they question my sanity on things. But then again, it's sort of in my DNA. That's how I roll”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Talked about the investors intelligence. Market bane is very high. Positioning is overdone on the upside. I use Daily Sentiment Index. It's starting to come down and it's a daily index of market sentiment that I have on our site that works pretty well”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Pick away. I like to see DeMarc signals on the downside with buy signals. That actually does happen. It actually worked really well this year. In late December, we had bicycles in the energy sector. And I couldn't get anybody to pay any attention. And I said, you want to buy as much energy as possible? And I overweighted my portfolio with 20% of the sector with various ETFs and individual stocks. And the energy sector, shockingly enough, surprised to me, which was nice, was the best performing sector in Q1, even better than tech, and not a lot of people are thought about that, but it really did work. So those are the types of things that I want to see market sentiment remains really, really high.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Market okay, so I'm actually putting together a note from my subscribers that it's going to go into like what would it take for me to turn bullish on things. And in 2020 or 2022, I had a really good year because I found a lot of buying opportunities. I actually traded more frequently on the long side than the short side catching. I think I just need to see the market internals really start to weaken, get to oversold levels. That can be, you know, various things like breadth measures, percentage of stocks above the 50 day moving average in the S&P. And these are some basic ones, basic, if you get to under 20% there, I think that's a good level to start to, you know.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They were arguing that the Fed has been doing this stealth QE, or Fed, the Treasury have been doing this stealth QE, and they actually made a lot of sense of how it works. And I just don't know if they're going to be able to, whoever wins is going to be able to do that on the same fashion in the coming years, next year especially. So I see that as a risk. And I like to point out a bunch of different risks. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong when things change. I change my mind. But I thought that was a really great interview. And I reached out to Steve Marin on Bloomberg and I said, you know, just how much I got out of it because that's one thing about you, Jack, that you elicit great answers from people with good questions.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And it's now at 4.1%. So if unemployment starts to continue to creep higher and unemployment, when it goes higher, it's not a short-term thing. It's quarters. It's years as well. That will hurt things. That will hurt consumer spending. That will hurt the housing market. That will have repercussions that the Fed cutting rates isn't going to help. And again, if inflation stays sticky and higher or even increases, that's another problem that's going to weigh on things. I see next year as a more difficult year. I will congratulate you. I watched the Steve Marin and Nureel Rubini interview you did. If anyone has not seen that video, I think that Is a must watch because”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, but the problem is the numbers are getting bigger and the percentages of tax revenues are getting bigger and that gets to a point where if we go into a recession, which I think is possible, I think it's not a zero chance. And I think that when you have the majority of people that say that there's a no landing or a soft landing coming, I'll take the other side of that. It's a different setup for Trump going into this and I don't care if you love him or hate him. Unemployment was at 4.9% when he came in and before COVID it went to three and a half percent. Now it went down to 3.4% under Biden after COVID.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't think it's necessarily bullish because if we're borrowing money to increase spending or it's just that's not a sustainable path.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That both parties are very similar in the sense that they're going to keep spending and one will tax and spend and one will borrow and spend. And I don't see that as a solution to the problem. That to me is a concern as the national debt goes up $1 trillion every hundred days. It just seems to be out of control and the deficit is extraordinarily high.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“IWM Russell two thousand has high correlation with that. So you have a lot of shorts that have been comfortably short, complacently short. A lot of these small cap names. So you've seen a squeeze happen. That's not necessarily sustainable without earnings. And that's the concern that I have. It's not going to necessarily make any difference if the Fed cuts one time or two times to these companies earnings and it's going to be even more difficult if we start to see unemployment go up. I think that's the risk. And I didn't, I haven't talked about politics right now. And I'll preface it by saying I'm an independent. I have no preference with the two candidates running. But I do think”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And a lot of people are like, wow, that's awesome. But it's because the Nasdaq went down 83% and the Russell went down 40%. So the problem that I see people not understanding is that both the Russell and other indices could still go down together. If you have that perfect trade on, then maybe you got that. It'll be fine. But you're going to most likely going to see the small caps and mid-caps come down, especially if we have sort of economic weakness and consumer slowing. The other thing is, and I can look up on my screen up there, the Goldman Sachs most shorted basket is up 12% month to date. And the...”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Looking at the rotation, and that's been the big thing, you know, oh, we're going to rotate into the small caps. I looked at the rotation from after the Y2K and your 2000, the Russell versus the Nasdaq or the SPY if you were long Russell and short, let's say. Nasdaq 100, you had a 40% gain.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We've started to see things go lower and you're going to get lower high bounces. And then those are to sell into. And then you break to new lows. It's just sort of a zigzag down. And it'll take time. We've just started to see a little bit of weakness creep into the market. And again, I can turn around and watch CNBC and I'm sure someone there is saying, oh, it's a great opportunity to buy. Maybe, but I tend to, from my experience being in the markets for 75 years, it feels, it seems like you just want to see how things develop on the bounces. And if the bounces aren't necessarily strong, then you want to be real careful.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“One benefit I could say is we've had a pullback in a lot of names like Microsoft is down a lot, NVIDIA is down, Apple's off the highs. It sort of lowers the bar a little bit, but it'll be interesting to see how they react. Again, I think that it's just, you've got to sort of break the will of the longholders, and you're really not going to hear anything on CNBC that, you know, oh, there's real selling happening. I think that it just takes more downside for sellers to get more motivated. And that, I think, is ahead.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, not getting killed is, you know, sort of plan A. I think that what happens is in these types of markets is that You have these down moves, and the by the dip people come in and think it's, you know, oh my God, it's just a great opportunity. And then they don't make things don't work and go as high as they want. And then they make lower highs and then they make lower lows and start to beat up by the dip people and they lose faith. We're not quite there yet as far as by the dip people losing faith. They're still fairly active looking for ideas. And until that starts to break a few times, I'm not necessarily being Mr. I got to press and be max short. I just don't see that. It takes time. And again, I think that it'll be interesting to see how the MegaCap names or the reaction is after earnings. And, you know,”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't understand what people are thinking here being short. It just makes no sense. I don't get it. But again, starts and stops. A seven dollars seven and a half dollar stock. We'll see what comes of it, but it's starting to move higher.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm currently up 40% in it, so I got involved in this after it fell apart. Again, I got stuck with a little bit of, you know, the wiggles on the downside. One of the short thesis stories that they had is that they had a municipal bond that they had production targets that they weren't going to hit. And that was sort of the short thesis, but the company bought the municipal bond out and eliminated that short thesis. So that sort of changed the tone a bit. Again, it's a high risk, high reward type of idea, but I look at it from the market dynamic of the short squeeze potential being there, being something that could really spook people if you're short. I mean, and I've heard from some of the large holders and they're like,”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Code FG10. Back to the episode. I'm surprised I didn't know that you were involved with PCT. I've never been involved with it, but I had been following it. And there were some a lot of people. The stock really collapsed. And I don't know the details, but I'm sure they encountered financial difficulties. And I'm just reading an article or read the headline that from 2023 September, Pure Cycle declares forced majeure following production problem. So they're attempting to do something very difficult and they have had issues. And so the stock is really beaten down. It's down, what is it from its peak, it's down 80, 80%. And it was down close to 90%. But you think people are still short this name and it's ripe for a squeeze, you think?”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I know people like Porter Collins, who's a good buddy of mine, he was talking about it, and we know something about, he was in the big short, we know something about short squeezes. And that, I think, is, again, I think Charles Bronson type death wish short squeeze is there. So, I think that's sort of like a one that you can put a little money into if it works. It's going to be fine. And I really do preach position sizing. You don't need to get bigger than 5% on any position that you have. If it works, it's going to work fine. But it's something, this is a name that I see as sort of a market dynamic along with tree hugger type potential to feel good about.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Which I hope that we'll see some positive news or starts and stops in this thing. And I used to not have gray hair, but I'm just kidding. Tesla gave me all the gray hair. But if this happens, I see the stock moving higher. And again, if they can perfect their plant and fix all the problems that a new plant typically has, they're going to have 20 plants around the world. And this could be something that could be a multi-bagger, to say the least. And that's what these longer-term holders are thinking. Not only there's squeezed potential, but there's proof of concept if they can do this, you're going to have a lot of long holders get involved. And when they do that, I see the stock moving higher. Again, there's a lot of starts and stops in this thing, but I've been squeezed in names before.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There is a massive, I mean, I'm talking death wish short squeeze potential here. And it shows around 29% of the float is short. Okay, that's one thing. I've seen a lot of companies with a heavy short interest on their float. But if you take the float that I know the holders are not selling, because you have some really sophisticated long-term holders involved here, there's really not a lot holding back the stock if this thing starts to get into a GameStop type short squeeze because, again, I think that there's probably 50%, maybe 60% of the float is actually short. And if they have any sort of positive news.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That they want to open up 20 different recycling plants all over the world. And there's benefits for companies that want to use their product, tax incentives by using recycled products and such. And it's actually plastic that has been approved by the FDA to be food use safe. So that's a good thing too. So I'm not necessarily Mr. Environmentalist because sometimes I'll come on your show and I'll say how I want to buy energy stocks. But I think this is sort of a neat idea. But here's the fun part about it from a stock perspective.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They have this plant and they're developing it and the plants had ups and downs, starts and stops. And they've really gone through a lot of the problems and now the plant is operational. And it's not at full capacity. They don't expect to be at full capacity for this year, but they will be at capacity enough and the plant running consistently enough to turn the company profitable. Now they have these plans that”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This is a super, and these are like sort of high risk type of ideas. Golar is not, I don't see that as a high-risk idea. I think that one is easy to understand and own. PCT Pure Cycle Technologies Now this is a company that is sort of a newer company, came in as a SPAC, you know, jammed up higher with all the specs and then fell to Earth. What they do is that they have a plant that converts garbage and waste into purified plastic pellets. Purified plastic pellets are not the same as just recycled plastic pellets because the typical recycled plastic pellets go into planters and things that you don't use to eat with and they're not necessarily that valuable. But a purified one and they have technology that was developed by Procter& Gamble in sort of like an offshoot skunk works type of team.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, some warlord going jihadist on an existing, they just float up to the Wells tap and they're done. There's really long-term benefits to all this as well. And Golar could announce that they're going to contract and build out more vessels. And these are not short-term contracts and they are not short-term thinking type of companies. They will do this for 20 years. And so, as I said, you know, each vessel is worth $10 or $20. I know they have two more that they're doing. Their contracts are out there. There's rumors of a few different companies that want to contract with them. So I think that's a catalyst. There. And when we had the latest one contracted, the stock went up. I'm up like 35% in the stock. So I still see upside from there. Okay, a couple others. There's a company called Pure Cycle.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, no, no, no. I mean, the crazy thing is there are a lot of countries in the world where they have existing wells drilled in the ocean floor done by the majors. And in Argentina, that's sort of a case in point where the government has said they're going to support that and offer initiatives for this type of tapping into those wells. I think, and we just had one vessel go to Argentina, you have others in like the Congo and other sort of volatile areas that it's kind of a nice situation because rather than have, you know,”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, no, the charter rate is pretty steady, but if there's an increase in natural gas prices, actually they get a piece of natural gas prices. So if the price of natural gas goes up, it's pretty low right now, they'll make more money from these.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Late this summer, it could be any time, but sometime this summer each vessel, most cell side analysts have said that it's between ten and twenty dollars per vessel. Stock trades around thirty five dollars. Those vessels get contracted. The stock's going to be $50 from this level at least. And again, they're really sleepy type of contracts. The difference that they're doing right now is that they're taking economics rather than just contracting the vessels out. They're getting part of the profits. So if natural gas prices continue to or they go up or stay here, they get 10 to 20 percent of the profits.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so this company has been this sleepy company that has had these long-term contracts with their vessels that are basically floating liquid natural gas rigs that they basically float the boat up to an existing well, tap it, and process the natural gas and its liquid natural gas. And lo and behold, that's what they do. It's really kind of boring. What's been happening is that they just had one of their vessels come up for new contract because these are contracts that one was 10 years. It's now being renewed with a new company in Argentina for 20 years. And they have two more vessels that I expect to be contracted this summer.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They have talked about going private. I think that will happen. At what price? It's probably not going to be a huge premium, especially if the high-end consumer is starting to slip. So I'm long that. I own it a little lower, so I'm okay there. I'm long Penn International. Pen International has the ESPN bet. Licensing rights, and I think that there's going to be consolidation in the gaming industry. We've seen it with Bally. I think you're going to see it with With Penn. I think there's something there. And there was insider buying lower. David Einhorn's involved, who I think is pretty smart dude. What else? I'll tell you a couple that I really like. I'm long a company called Golar.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That they're saying instead of crapping all over the CEOs that were making so much money and becoming so powerful, now they're trying to embrace them and seeing that they're running a little behind with AI. And China will definitely be there with AI. And I think that Alibaba has a lot of AI initiatives. I think Baidu, which is cheap, hasn't been working great for me. I think that one will probably do okay. They have driverless cars as well, Robotaxis that they're deploying, oddly enough in Wuhan, which I guess, you know, they've seen worse than crazy taxis running around the streets. I'm long a few catalyst type driven names. I'm long Nordstroms.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So I have a few that are sort of Not brand name type things that you're going to hear a lot about. I am long some like I'm long Alibaba that one is sort of just kind of languishing here in the mid 70s they're buying back boatloads of stock every day. I think the management, there's been turnover, brought back some of the better people involved in the company from a while back I think that's positive. They're trying to fix things. I was very short China for a while all the way down and I think that the Chinese government has been signaling that they are interested in preserving the Chinese technology powers and so I think it's a change in China.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I took some shorts off on this down move. And happy to take, it's so hard to short stocks that you have to monetize when you can. And I did. So that's generally what the plan was. I'm happy to book some gains on the short side and reload if we get a bounce. Or even if we see things move lower, I'll press lower.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, it's up today with MMM. That's up. But that's kind of where I'm at right now. I'm not really, I haven't really gone into the full court press. I have some indices short, but I'm not in a full court press yet. I think I need to see sort of this first wave down. And then, you know, we get a bounce. Maybe that's starting now. And then, you know, we can start to, you know, press a little bit on the short side. I think it right now, it's a place where you don't want to take too big of risk on the long or short side. Been trying to stay fairly neutral. I'm net short, but still that to me is neutral.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT