YouSaid · the spoken record

Tommy Thornton

lines on the record: 93
first: 2024-07-28
most recent: 2024-07-28
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“I added to it higher, so that was good. I'm short John Deere and I shorted it after the last earnings higher. I recently added to it. I was short caterpillar and I covered that lower and that I want to add back. I'm hearing there's a lot of inventory in the system and that I think is going to be those are going to be places in industrials that are going to be okay to be on the short side. They're not cheap. They've had big runs and any sort of hiccup or high inventory than things get slippery on the downside. I'm short Netflix I shorted that higher and I held that through earnings and that was fine, you know some indices like XLI which I think is okay to short.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Using that, I'm not sure if I'm giving them more money, if I'm using a better Siri to get answers on things. And a lot of the answers that you get with the chat GPT and others are sort of boxed in lame answers that you just have to go in and you're going to say, well, yeah, it's good. You got a lot there, but you got to change a lot. I think it's still a work in progress.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It could, but I don't think it's going to be a needle moving type of. At the get-go. I think it's going to be something that's going to develop over the years. And a lot of the AI stuff, I think a lot of software companies had this type of technology, a lot of hardware companies had this technology, and they've really sort of rebranded it as AI. And just because, you know, if you say AI on your conference call or you make an announcement, it's AI, then lo and behold your stock goes up. So I think that it'll be interesting to see. Siri's been really crappy, as we all know. It doesn't really do much. So there can be improvement there. But I don't really know if I'm spending more money.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Socks overdone. Yeah, I have to get an I'm in the market for a new iPhone. I think I will be replacing, but I've got a sample size of one. So you don't think that Apple intelligence will boost their sales that much?”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think we can guess that the new phone's going to look fairly similar to the old phone and it's expensive. You know, it's expensive and a lot of people are using the buy now pay later using that to buy the new phone and upgrading it that way. I just don't see this giant need to upgrade phones. I mean, in the old days, remember when there were lines around the block at Apple to get the new phone or the new iPad, you just don't see it anymore. And you have a huge installed base. Apple's a great company. I just think the stock's overdone here.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“High end retailers that are starting to show signs of weakness, are people really going to need to go out and upgrade their phone? They made a mistake, in my opinion. They should have said the new phone is going to be the only one with the AI capability. And they said, oh, all the phones are going to use it. So I think that they could have had this big... Big upgrade cycle if they had something proprietary on the new phone. It's just, I mean.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and it's not proprietary to them how much they're going to make from that is to be determined. Again, I go back to the Microsoft where how much are they really making? Adobe, how much are they really making? Because that was an AI darling as well that they would see this huge increase. But I think it really just comes down to how many phones they're selling. And are there phones really, you know, there's always the Danives on TV saying, oh, it's this super cycle that's coming and everybody's going to upgrade. Well, if the consumer is starting to slow, which we've seen numerous places where the consumer is slowing from not buying as many Teslas, they're not buying Nikes, Starbucks is under pressure. There's a bunch of retailers.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Note or shareholder letter was inferring that some of the market cap expansion has given him a pause on certain things. And even like Apple has moved up. Again, that I think is sort of going to be a dud because they're coming out with a AI initiatives.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The sing could move to maybe, you know, I've talked about like the 80s, which is still extraordinarily elevated, but each point, I got to remember this, each point is... twenty five billion dollars in market cap each point. So each penny is $250 million in market cap. So if it goes up four points, you're looking at $100 billion in market cap, give or take. And that seems that for some people that may seem, well, wow, that's so what? But to me, if it moves 10 points, you're looking at a fairly decent market cap decline bigger than Cisco's at its height a little bit more. But still, I think that's the risk here. And I think Warren Buffett in his latest”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I'll say this, and I caveat I could be absolutely wrong. But I think Nvidia's made a long term top, and a long term top where it may not surpass this level for a long time. And it could be, that could be something that I'm wrong within two weeks. I have no position in it right now. But is if I look back to the way Cisco traded, Cisco made a long-term top that still hasn't hit that same level to this day. And that was, I think in 2000. So we'll see. But again, if growth isn't great and hyper growth, the stock could sell off. It's crowded on the long side. I think people, again, fund managers have had to own this in larger size to keep up with the indices. And if that falls off, then...”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I don't short it often and I don't just sit there shorting NVIDIA often or just sit there passively and say, oh, it's overvalued at 40 times sales. I'll take spots. And the previous time that we had DeMarc signals, the last. Two times it went down 20% and it went down 10% of the previous two signals. Again, it went up after that, but still I picked off a couple places where I could see is a decent place to short it.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You're kind of missing the picture because sometimes when things have moved so much and you have exhaustion signals that I tend to think work and if they don't work, you have a fairly good idea when they stop out. But I had a lot of people say, oh, you're going to lose a lot of money on this one. And I just took it off just the other day. And I don't mind booking a 10% gain on a short idea within a week or two. It's not that easy to do. So that's kind of the instant sentiment read you can get. And sometimes on long ideas, I'll put a long idea out there. And I get the same good luck. And then that's sort of my good luck term, you know, when someone sarcastically will say something like that.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's funny because on X, you can really get an instantaneous sentiment read on an idea that you have. Like recently when NVIDIA was a bit higher, I added it as a short idea on our trade ideas sheet and I shorted it in our fund. And I always get this, you know, the people that will say, oh, good luck in those that you're going to lose a lot of money on this one. And if you look at the chart and you look at a weekly chart of NVIDIA and you think, well, man, you're going to lose a lot, you know, you're...”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I have CNBC on behind me. I never turn on the volume to say brain cells, but I think that it's always a matter of bringing on the same people that say the same thing that always have some bullish slant. And I'm happy to have more of a equal waiting thought, like, okay, well, what's bullish? What's bearish? And I try to put myself in the position of what are the bulls thinking if I'm short something and what are the bears saying if I'm long something and sometimes I don't get everything I want when I find an idea that I am looking to do. But if I can get 75% of everything that I need, not 100%, but 75% I'll do the trade.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Have triggered not necessarily just on the daily signals but on the weekly, and that was a similar occurrence that happened towards the end of 2021. Positioning also was really, really high going into the end of 2021. And what we've seen from, I just read from Morgan Stanley and Goldman is that there's been degrossing happening. In other words, funds are taking down exposure on both the long and short side. And that was something that really was concerning to me at the end of 2021, 2022. So I think people are starting to, the funds are getting a little bit more concerned, more concerned than individuals out there.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the future, that this is going to be something great, and there's really nothing behind it that you can look at it and say, oh, well, the earnings are this or it's valued based on this. I know that there's a lot of people that will say, oh, Tom, you just don't get it because there's a limited supply. And I get that. But I think there's just way too much speculation in that. And we're not at 2020, late 2021 of speculation, but if you go back to 2021, a lot of the speculative stuff really started to peak early in the year, ARC as well. And then the mega cap names really took over. And I look at stuff from a technical point of view. I look at sentiment and stuff like that. And the Nasdaq 100 using Demarc indicators, they have cell signals that”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Why she wasn't long, and that I think is to her detriment because that was absolutely, if you're going to be disruptive and innovative, NVIDIA nailed it and crushed it. And that's been a big miss on her part. Now she got Coinbase, which I think that's more speculation in itself as well. I don't think that they're necessarily super profitable. I don't think that the ETFs are necessarily all that great for the crypto market. That's my view. People can have their own view of crypto. It's just not something. I study it. I study the price action. I think it's a bit toppy. Again, you really arc things like that. It's all sort of faith-based.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think that was partly due to the speculative nature of the market, the gamma squeeze, which that's a whole other topic. And nothing in her thesis that came true. Her whole thesis was Robotaxis, and that's back in 2020. Those never came out, and we still don't have full self-driving that truly works. It's gotten better, but certainly there are others out there that have a lead on Tesla. But, you know, I watch the outflows for ARC. You've seen seven months in a row of outflows. And you still have a lot of people that lug that stuff from two, three times higher than where it is now. I just don't think that Kathy Wood really has a grip on things. And if she's really disruptive. She missed Nvidia big time.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, my view on ARC, I was short that I'm still short, but I shorted it around 140 and I took some profits on, of course, on the way down. But I remain short. I think that Kathy Wood got really lucky in the sense that she predicted that Tesla's stock price was going to go up by X amount and hit her price target.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Hold companies that are involved in disruptive innovation. Another way to say that is speculative companies that don't have earnings or don't have a lot of earnings and trade at very expensive valuations. That ETF is still down 70% from its highs from 2021. So I might offer and help me understand where I'm wrong, that I think a discount market feels different than 2021 because you're not having speculative companies with no earnings and only pie in the sky dreams leading this market. Arc is not up. All the money is going to NVIDIA, Apple, Broadcom, as well JPMorgan, all and many other companies that whether you think they're overvalued or some you can say overvalued, undervalued, they have real earnings. They've been around for a long time period.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That it you know, you may have a robo taxi that comes out from Tesla, but it's going to have a lot more goodies on top. They're sort of doing it backwards because in technology, you used to have these big, you know, you put more stuff on a product. And then as time goes on, it shrinks down and makes it a lot smaller, just like a phone. You know, the first cellular phones are these big, you know, bricks that they had now. You can have so much more on such a smaller package. So they're kind of going at it the wrong direction in my view.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Producing robots that will take this to an absurd valuation that Elon talks about. I don't see that being anything that people really need right now. I don't see any of that happening in this decade, let's say that. And the other thing about their self-driving, we'll know that it works when they say we will indemnify the user for robotaxis or full self-driving because that's what Waymo's done. They take the insurance liability for their robotaxis. And if Tesla does that, then we know that they have something that works. I don't believe that the Tesla hardware on the cars currently, just cameras, is enough. I think that Waymo has, you know, the radar, the LIDAR, all the other stuff.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you know, that's the thing about Tesla, and they get this free pass on saying, oh, we're going to come out with a roadster. And this is like 2018 or 19. It's still not out. People put down huge deposits on this and it's not out. The million cyber truck placeholders that people put $100 deposit on free gift to Tesla for raising capital. I don't see that really as a needle mover. I think that's a loss leader. It's kind of a ridiculous looking car, to say the least. And not easy to produce, not easy to fix if one crashes one. It most likely is a total. Insurance costs are really high on those. But I don't see them.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I remain short Tesla. It's been one that I've had. I trade around it, so it's not like, you know, I've been short since 2012 and I'm hoping it goes back to two. But no, I trade around it. I think that it's going to be very tough for them in the next year with no new cars coming. They keep promising RoboTaxis. I see that to be...”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“says and he's tried to you know turn the narrative towards robots ai robo taxis things that are more moonshot in nature versus selling cars at a decent with a decent margin tesla's got a real problem on its hand because they have older cars that haven't been updated they had a rumored model two more affordable car that looks like that's done they shelved that because the chinese are eating their lunch and i think that the stellantis ceo yesterday on bloomberg said that they have a 30 cost advantage versus other legacy automakers so it's going to be tough for even a tesla to come out and compete with the chinese so i i think again”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, alphabet was trading at highs, and I think the nitpickers looked at a bunch of different things that metrics YouTube was a little light or I'm not sure all the details right here, but I think that they looked at certain things that they wanted to see as great. So their earnings were very good. And I'm thrilled that it's moving lower because I think that's one of the go-to names that I like to buy when it does pull back. I think Tesla, which I've been short, you know, I covered some in my fund at around 140 ahead of the last earnings, which I anticipated to be an unmitigated disaster, which they were. The problem is that Tesla people are believers in whatever Elon Musk”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You have a lot of fund managers that have to belong these stocks to keep up. I haven't kept up. I've tried to look for more esoteric or non-correlated ideas on the long side versus the stuff that I see as overbought.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Was basically every company and there were a lot of new companies that came on. But again, I think that you have a really extended market with valuations that are historically high. I think Microsoft, I looked at it recently, was trading at 38 times earnings. That's high for Microsoft. Apple is up there as well. It was around 35 times earnings. I was short Apple. I covered it when it was at 25 times earnings. And I added back when it was around 30 times earnings because that's kind of the range it's been, but it's moved higher. And we've seen this huge last surge in prices that's more multiple expansion versus earnings growth. So I think that's a leap of faith on investors that are chasing this market higher and forced into the market.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Built out with their data centers. That's going to be a risk. And Meta as well. They went down because they said they were going to increase their CapEx. And if that seems to change in the next quarter with some of these other companies that are really the big spenders and the front of the line with NVIDIA, then we're going to see some pullback. But again, you really haven't seen the internet bubble everybody was moving to the internet and you had a much wider adoption of companies using the internet. And it helped them create scale that they've never had before. I mean, the gap opened up an internet site and look at they didn't need all the stores that they had because people could buy online.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Anything. So NVIDIA really has the sort of the lead on, well, I don't want to say lead because I think everybody else is sort of left behind. They're the only game in town. And if, you know, Microsoft reports next week, I think it's going to be really important to watch because you really haven't seen the earnings through their AI initiatives show up. And that's true with a lot of other companies. You have a lot of announcements that you're going to do, you know, Oracle. They're going to collab with NVIDIA. Oh, great. You know, it's going higher. But Microsoft really hasn't shown the AI earnings yet. And if they come out and say on their conference call that perhaps they're going to accelerate their own chip making, that I think will be a risk if they say that they're getting fully”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Again, in the dot-com bubble or the Y2K bubble, you had a lot of companies that were growing revenues at pretty excessive rates. NVIDIA is really unique because it really is the only game in town. And to their credit, the stock's gone up so much in market cap. I think that's a big risk as well. Because if you have a lot of almost a three trillion dollar company and it goes down a trillion dollars, that's a lot of losses for people. But I think it's fairly unique. And you can look back, you can look at some other names, you know, look, I'm just looking at my screens. AMDs at 140. It was, I think, a lot, lot higher before. And they are a competitor. Intel hasn't.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Expectations for the tech names have been really, really high. And if they don't match those expectations, they could have still good growth and good earnings. But if it's not as great as they want, good is okay, but great is what the market expects. Then we could see some moderation in the equity markets. And that, again, that would be welcome to me because I do best in markets that have some volatility that give me the opportunity to buy things on pullbacks. But, you know, when it's just going straight up and I just don't chase it, it's just not in my DNA to do as much as I wish I did, but it's just not something I do with my process.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“People are not ready for this. If inflation starts to tick higher and the Fed which has basically telegraphed that they're going to cut in September, if they cut and inflation starts to tick higher, the market's not going to know what to do. And I think that if they do cut, it's not necessarily going to be a big rate cut cycle like we've seen in the past. And one or two cuts from these levels really isn't going to make much difference in the grand scheme of things because in the grand scheme of things, the high interest rates that they have haven't really done anything either. So I think it's just going to come down to earnings and moderation in earnings. And that, I think, is going to be an issue. And it's also a game that Wall Street plays with expectations.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And they've been selling vaul at really cheap valuation or low vols. That, I think, is another risk in itself because if things start to unwind, those funds get caught out pretty quick. So we have really basically everybody's in. And I think that the narrative has been this, well, I guess the Fed has dangled the carrot in front of the donkey and the market has just chased that. Oh, they're going to cut rates. They're going to cut rates. And inflation really hasn't moved down in the same magnitude that it did a year ago. And the risk is that you have base effects going forward that could show inflation remaining sticky, possibly increasing. And I had a conversation with my friend Julian Brigden. Oh, I think he's in a bunker right now because he was telling me he's like, Tom, and he speaks in this good British accent.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Start to get a little nervous when it's above 60, they call it the danger zone. So people are complacent in this market. And I don't think shorts are that involved in the market as well. You have CTAs, which if you look on all the different prime brokerages, they're fully long.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We're going to see growth, but it's not going to be hyper growth like we've seen. It's going to continue to grow, but it just may not grow as fast as some people anticipate. And when you think about NVIDIA has gained about a trillion and a half in market cap since April, April, I give you, that is fairly extreme. And so we're seeing a pullback from that. I think that it gets to a point where it's super crowded. And that leads me to another issue, crowding. Everybody's in this market. Retails fully long. Every sentiment poll is at peak levels. It's moderated on a few in the last week and a half. But investors' intelligence is at 64% bulls. And when it gets above 55,”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So with that in mind, what happened with Cisco was that they had great earnings, they were selling networking equipment to all the telecom companies, banks, you know, just all over the world, which they needed to upgrade their systems, again, for Y2K and for the internet that was blowing up and really was a much wider scope of companies that benefited from it. But then what happened is that you started to see a bit of pullback on CapEx. And when that happened, Cisco and others, specifically a lot of semiconductor companies that supplied to Cisco, started to say, hey, oops, we're going to miss earnings. And that, I think, is going to happen again, perhaps with...”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so everybody went out and rushed and bought new computers, upgraded their networking equipment. That was just a mad scramble. And I think that that's seemingly happened again with AI. And when you think about AI, you have to think about the picks and shovels very similar to Cisco. And everybody said, oh, Cisco's PE was so high, it doesn't compare to NVIDIA, which Nvidia trades around 50 times earnings, which isn't cheap. But Nvidia trades at a price to sales over 40 times. And that is expensive. And I believe that is the highest in the S&P.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Going back and perhaps comparing 1999 and this year, there's a lot of comparisons. One, you've had this narrow action with leaders such as NVIDIA. You can add Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla. partly in the last few months into this mix. I think that Going back and people always talk about, oh, it's the dot-com bubble. Well, it really wasn't 99 being the dot-com bubble. It was this mad scramble to avoid the Y2K problems that so many people feared because there was some code that, you know, thinking back that it wasn't going to be able to recognize the year 2000 and everybody's computer was going to blow up.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Was ninety nine in two thousand and maybe it was 98, 99, but we had two years in a row where that happened. And I saw some data recently that showed that only 24% of the S&P has outperformed the index and that is exceptionally low. And if you took out tech, which only 42% of the tech sector was outperforming the index, it was even lower at around 17%. Now you're starting to see some rotation. The banks are starting to act very, very well. And I personally don't think that I want to be involved in banks if we do go into a recession, which I think is possible. It's always been the waiting for Godot for a recession. So many people have predicted it, but I think we're probably going to see a recession in the next year. And especially if the Fed starts cutting rates, they're going to see a recession on the horizon.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because people are looking at performance and saying, well, you're underperforming the S&P. And yeah, I have. I'm fine with that. I'm not fine with it, but I'm just cognizant of that. And the last two years have been tough for those that haven't chased those technology stocks that are trading at excessive valuations, very bubble-like. and thematic like with the AI narrative that we can go into a little bit more after this but I think that the last time we had this type of performance or underperformance by active managers and really it's been underperformance by the majority of stocks within the market versus the S&P.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Caution people that the rotation trade that people are loving right now most likely will turn out to be not as good as they had hoped. And that's the concern I have right now. I'm bearish in the market, blah, blah, blah. I have longs. I have shorts. I have a long, short fund. But I do think that we're starting to see peak tech start to occur.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I think we're starting to see a little bit of change happening, which is great, because it's been for active managers, it's been an actual nightmare because we just haven't had any dispersion in the market to find ideas. Pullbacks are, well, they don't happen. And we're starting to see that develop. And that gives me encouragement going forward. I should actually preface that and say we really haven't seen enough dispersion. In other words, you know, we've been sort of skewed by the S&P and NASDAQ lifting higher and led by, I mean, it's been talked about $100 million, five or six stocks doing all the attribution on the upside. So we're starting to see some changes happening there.”
2024-07-28 · Forward Guidance · Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT