YouSaid · the spoken record

Tony Greer

lines on the record: 61
first: 2024-10-16
most recent: 2024-10-16
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Like we both watch every single episode, we prepare for each episode. We take notes. We put, you know, we have graphics. We have discussions about what we're talking about. And we're trying to do a really good job. So that's a good place to kind of get to know us and see if you want to get a feel for our newsletters, which are knock on wood doing great. And I would say that's it. If any of your subscribers want to email me, you can just email me direct at Tony at tgmacro.com. I'd be happy to answer any questions anybody has about any of my products. And I've got a great Slack channel of TG Macro members and we've got about 150 red-blooded hungry traders in there. And that's been a great addition to my portfolio of kind of business offerings. I've got a lot of great people in there putting in a lot of really useful information during the course of every day. And it never stops. So that's been really, really cool part of the business development this year.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Appreciate that. I really do. We're getting really rave reviews and we're grateful to people that are commenting and being so encouraging to us. Like we've got people telling us that it's their favorite podcast already and I'm really humbled by that. But Jared and I work really careful, really hard on our trade.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, sure, man. I'm on Twitter at TGMacro.com is where I have some examples of my newsletter. I do a great podcast with Jared Dillian called The Macro Dirt Podcast.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's still a lot of length and semiconductors. Obviously, it's the best performing sector on the year. So those are two things that I kind of have in mind for the next, you know, kind of looking through into the next quarter, you know, and seeing maybe we get that point of headline inflation bond sells off, rates go higher, the tech market gets, you know, beat up a little bit, cyclicals can survive. That's kind of the way that I'm looking for this to pan out in the fourth quarter.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm with the bigger guys like Druk and Jared Dillian in their sort of bearish bond camp, you know, like I said, I feels like we may be set up for that policy era where we see more inflation and bonds can back off. So you can call me a cautious bond bear. That's fine. So I still think AI craze is going to kind of, you know, I feel like we're pricing in the finest moments of AI now. And maybe that can back off. Like, especially if this run, this NVIDIA run to the highs is squashed by this headline. And that turns out to put another top on the chart, like the whole semiconductor sector can kind of deflate a little bit. And if we're going to see that kind of scenario where we have higher yields and a sell off in bond market, then that's going to be the center of the breakdown in technology if rates go higher. If you ask me, you know, there's still a lot of retail land.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you know, it goes along with the idea of my perma view on fiat currency debasement and weakness, right? And so Bitcoin seems to be reacting well against that. As a hedge to that. And I think just like we said, technically speaking, it's been consolidating for so long that when it breaks, it's going to break and go. And so it just seems like if it can go from 70 to 150K or something like that, that that's a trade I want to be a part of. That's for damn sure.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Cryptocurrency. Broadly speaking, it looks like they are definitely a risk asset in the US where when liquidity is high in pumping and NVIDIA's on the highs, like Bitcoin is on the highs and things like that. So I have respect for it there. And it looks like to me like it's coiling up for a huge move. Like we've, you know, we had that initial explosion to 70K like the second time, right? And then we consolidated between 50 and 70. But the longer this thing consolidates up near the highs, the more I want to buy a breakout into new high territory.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I've got a close eye on Bitcoin technically, I would say, just from a perspective of this thing was left for dead on the table twice. And came back to life. And so that's that leads me to believe that it is not going away. And in my Slack channel, we pay a really close attention to the flows and the corporate inflows are unbelievable in no uncertain terms, right? So they're serious, serious players making serious commitments.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you know, FX trading, those are speedometers on my dashboard. Those aren't risk categories for me, right? I'm just kind of watching the dollar and the euro versus the wan kind of seeing the general direction of the dollar. That kind of gives me the indication as to whether I should step on the brakes or step on the gas of my commodity trades. You know, so if I see the dollars vulnerable, I'm probably going to try to, you know, piece together a little bit more commodities in my portfolio. And if I feel like it's going to shortcover, I'm probably going to get out of some of those quick, especially like the mining and sensitive stocks like that. But that's it. That's it. I have to say that I'm just kind of. Being very opportunistic and short term with them.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And if it does that again, we just banged our head on it and back and filled a little bit in the last couple weeks. But I think if it gets through 10K, it's going to keep cruising. We stay in this scenario within this range with rates in the dollar, I think that that's what will happen.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And in terms of copper, copper is kind of like copper's like a reed on the Chinese economy and not much more to me lately. You know what I mean? It's also got a huge dollar tailwind to it when the dollar sales off, copper rallies, when the dollar rallies, copper sells off, you know, it's kind of the front base metal that leads the charge in both whichever direction. I lean bullish because I suppose that, you know, I feel like we just spent a long time pounding support in commodities and especially in base metals. I feel like the dollar trajectory is most naturally lower and that that means higher base metals as well. So that's another reason that I can get on board. And if we're kind of at the bottom of a growth scare in the economy for the US and in China, then there's any upticks there, then that should be good for copper too. We're kind of in the upside of the copper range where it can actually get exciting and bust through LME 10K.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know, so that kind of tells me that everybody is kind of long silver, like, oh, gold's raging, silver is going to eventually rage. And I think that while it may make sense to own some upside calls or something that won't get you killed in silver, it's not the trade that I'm chasing. It's not the trade that I'm chasing down. I'm chasing the gold trade down. And if silver goes great, but silver's 32 bucks and silver was 32 bucks when gold was $2,000. Where's the trade there? If silver was keeping up, it would be a $50 item right now, and it's not. So that's my view on silver, that it may pop through this kind of triple top that we've developed now, but the trade is gold and precious metals.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know silver, I have a very specific view, and that is that it's along for the gold ride, right? Silver is to me much more of an industrial than precious metal than it used to be, you know, now that it's such a huge component in solar panels and some of the other alternative energy and it's just way more of an industrial metal for its uses than it is a precious. And everybody that I talk to. Is also long and bullish silver and upset and want a reason for why it's not keeping up with gold.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It depends on what time frame certainly, but I think that there might be some real bang for the buck in the short bond trade. And it might happen a lot faster than a gold rally. I just feels like the bond markets are coming from a place where they were mispriced on the upside Rates were too low. We were pricing in way too much of a growth scare. Like it was like a growth shit your pants, you know, like it was everything was going to stop. And that's just not the case in the US economy. So since I feel like we're set up for that policy error where we may be back in the scenario where we're watching headline inflation data for a number that's hotter than expected and could derail the bond market. I kind of, I think I probably go towards that trade a little bit more, quite honestly.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But I don't have, I have only, all I have on is a core position in gold that I've had on for years, and it's not likely to change much. From time to time, upsize it and trade out and upsize and trade out, but I have not, I haven't upsized, I have traded out of my last upsize at like 2,200 or 2,300, and I haven't upsized again since then. So it hasn't given me a real chance to dig my heels in in terms of a dip in price. So I haven't been able to get big again. And so I'm just kind of riding with a core position that's not going to, it's kind of something I don't trade.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you know, I think it's the kind of Druken Miller trade where he's expecting in either administration and he made this comment when they were neck and neck in the polls, but he made a comment that like, you know, either admin and we are heading towards massive Fiscal irresponsibility I guess he's thinking about low rates money printing, the whole thing. And that's why he short treasuries, which to me is a pretty good scenario for gold. So that's kind of, I still think that, you know, gold's best days are ahead of it. I try not to do too much cheerleading about it because that usually means that I should be making a sale.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think I have really high hopes. I think it gets up above 3,000, maybe by the end of this year. Or at least early next year, and then we'll see what happens. But I think that there's going to be a day in gold when it's trading like panic buying at the top of this rally. And then eventually we'll get to a point where that gets way over its skis and it's a sale. But I think we're going to see that first. I really do.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I think gold is still breaking out beautifully. You know, it spends so many years consolidating that it's going to probably spend as many years rallying now. And I think that every analyst on the street has a price target that's too low, right? Like if we're blowing through anybody's price targets, people tend to put super price, super conservative price targets on gold. And, you know, because they only think it can rally $100 in a year. And I kind of tend to think that we may get to a point where gold starts rallying like Bitcoin in 2020 and just starts going up faster the higher it goes. And I don't know, you know, maybe that's a tail event and maybe that's not entirely likely. But the way that it's trading, it's been the price action is perfect. The reaction to headlines is perfect. And that can go on for a really long time. And that's kind of the mode that I'm in now with gold where I.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Finally, everybody gets the trade, yeah, yeah, meanwhile, I think it should go to 5,000 Probably really early and way too optimistic with that idea, too”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, there is nothing but fiat currency debasement everywhere you look with our deficit flying to new highs, Europe spending like drunken sailors. Like the case for the case for fiat currency losing buying power like never goes away, you know, and it's even stronger today than it's ever been and it's now like now you feel like as a guy that's been bullish gold for years, you're like, oh, finally everybody is like getting it.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Gold man, gold. Gold is bull market. It's been a beautiful breakout. Yeah, I mean, we've tacked a thousand dollars almost onto that breakout through 1800. It has been so orderly that if you bought the breakout, you're never out of the money and you sleep like a baby at night, right? Like the gold, if it pulls back, it pulls back to 20 and 50 day moving averages, right? Not even to 200 day moving averages. It's a trending bull market. Central banks are buying. Saudi Arabia is buying on the sneak.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you got to have your eye on them. You know, obviously one economic data point away from moving the oil market a couple of percent, right? Like a strong number is usually good for oil, a weak number is usually bad. You know, it's the same as us where the two 800 pound guerrilla economies out there that one sneezes, the other one catches a cold. So you kind of have to be, you know, kind of have to have half an eye on China at the very least to see if their data is just coming in in line and how the economy is doing in terms of trade and commodities since they're one of the biggest consumers. But like I said, the market feels kind of boring and balanced right now. You know, that's the one commodity that.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you know, only because it sets up for that sell off in crude oil if we do get a Trump win, you know, that I would imagine that people are going to expect gas prices to go lower because that's the way he rolls and rates to go lower. And so, yeah, I do think that that might be an okay trade. I usually try not to get that cute with the markets. I'd probably just put on the XLE long and try to manage it against the way crude oil is trading. I totally think there's opportunity there. There's opportunity there just like in base metals and we'll go whichever direction you want.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And then, if you know, God forbid there's a second Trump admin, I would imagine that they're going to open the floodgates on IT spending and really, really improve their earnings efficiency and things like an operational capacity and things like that. And I'm just, I get really bullish that sector.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Administration that would likely send the price of gas lower, even where the economy really thrives with dollar 50 a gallon gasoline. I could see that scenario happening, but I would imagine that the energy companies are going to kind of back off with that and then absolutely take off because they're so set up for success right now, you know, with really clean balance sheets and they've been saving up money by not doing any IT spending because they're in there were an administration that hates the industry, so they're not going to go invest in it during this administration. They got their hands in their pockets and they're going to wait it out.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, you know, we're kind of in this push and pull between a well supplied market in an economy that's not booming. And, you know, maybe there's maybe the Middle East tension is keeping the prices in the mid-70s rather than into the high 60s or something like that. That's kind of pulling a little slide on the downside. So maybe Oil likes these prices around here, you know, and I'm not going to fight it much. I still think that there's a lot of opportunity in the oil stocks. I think that if Donald Trump gets elected, that the XLE sector is going to be one to own because I think that there'll initially be a knee-jerk reaction lower if Trump gets elected because he's a drill baby drill guy. Like we might get to 15, we might drill 15 million barrels a day under a Trump.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, I doubt it. So that's what the market's saying now. I haven't been extremely bullish in oil. I haven't like it's the one sector that's been the drag because it seems so well supplied, right? It's kind of this, you know, this plenty of liquid supplies. Diesel fuel gasoline like those are the fuel is actually what's leading the oil complex lower right there's plenty of diesel fuel spreads are loose refiners are well positioned they have more diesel fuel coming out than they know what to do with and the price is dragging lower you know kind of keeping the oil market very very much capped there's no rush for refiners to buy early because there's plenty of supply in the markets and the inventory data continues to show that”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I want to That's a good question. I don't think that the markets are, I don't see much of a Middle East risk premium in the markets at 70, 75, or $80, right? I consider risk premium like we saw when. Russia pushed back on NATO's Ukraine invasion, right? And oil prices went to $130. Like, that's oil premium to me. That's like nobody knows which way the next 20 bucks is, right? That's why oil trades with a premium at $75, I think it's pricing in precisely no activity between Israel. The market to me is saying, Israel, you say you're striking Iran in their refineries, bullshit. That's what the market is saying right now. It's saying bullshit. No, you're not. You're lying. You're talking up a big game. Oh, here comes another surprise attack that you're going to advertise in the newspaper.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, exactly, exactly. Everybody lowers their expectations to in line with prices, and then everybody's got a new upside target. And so we'll start the whole game all over again.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“One of the strengthening factors in the SP is like SP earnings are trending hard up into the right. You know, like they're constantly, they're doing better, they're rallying, you know, it's like, it's really hard to keep the index down when it's built for success like that, right? Kicking out losers and adding bigger winners and things.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To cut rates a couple more times, we'll see a little more headline inflation. We'll see the data get better, and the market's going to say, oh, shit, that's the end of the Fed rate cuts, and the bond market probably sells off. So, you know, that's always been the pushing pull. You know, it's the read between the Fed, the bond market, the market's expectations, what the S&P is doing. But one of the factors in the S&P that's like, I don't mean to take it back to stocks again, but one of the strange.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, it always has been, you know, it's always that argument, you know, it always starts with that argument of, you know, is the Fed okay? You know, what does the Fed have to do? Are they being forced to do something? You know, and that it all starts with that. And then it starts with watching the Fed and see how they manage rate expectations and then watching the bond market to see how far ahead of expectations the market actually is. You know, like we got a pretty clear, I guess, you know, we got the clear hardcore rally in the bond market when we were pricing, we were at the highs of it when we were pricing in the most rate cuts, right? And then we started pricing in less rate cuts because the data change, et cetera, and treasuries backed off hard. So that's kind of like that's kind of the generational push and pull, right? And now we'll see what happens if history, what we've, what we've seen is the will continue.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's a lot of opportunity here, and it's all happening within this really aggressive rotation that's taking place right now.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Pricing in. Well, first of all, there are people that are maybe hedging some of the SP gains. And then we've got just volatility trading higher, possibly preempting a sell-off from higher levels, right? So we're in a little bit of a higher volatility regime. The stock market can handle it. And the bond market is going to be data dependent and very emotional now, where I feel like, you know, we're one cut into a cycle, but I feel like weak economic data makes the market say, oh man, the Fed's got to cut a lot more. You know, like we're going to go on these big dovish easing trades now and better economic data says, oh, wow, maybe the Fed can take their foot off the gas. And now we do like the growth trades and things like that.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Great expectations. We've got a steepening of the yield curve, right? Which makes total sense. And we're going to see that we're going to hope that it steepens at a reasonable pace that the equity market can deal with. Because what you see a lot during the steepening yield curve and what we saw when we had that big sell off in the S&P back to down to 5200 earlier this year, what happens is the VIX responds to that, right? The VIX sees the yield curve steepening out of negative territory where we're predicting recession. And the VIX says, wait a minute, there is an interest rate change afoot. The VIC says, I don't know what that means for equities yet. Right? We just saw the VIX trade from a sort of median price of thirteen up to a median price of call it nineteen twenty right now, right? So we've got the S&P at the highs, but we're in a higher valley regime because the volatility markets are.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Most important thing, I think, to watch is watch the curve, like you said, right? There's been a lot of volatility in the last couple of days. The curve, let's talk twos, tens to keep it generic, right? We just had, we had that pinned in negative territory for a record amount of time. You know, now it's starting to, well, it has begun steepening. It's into it's just into positive territory from a level of like call it 30 minus 30 minus 40 minus 20 bips for the whole year kind of thing. So with the change in Fed.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That was way better than expected. And you're like, wait a minute, if they're cutting rates this aggressively into the bottom of the growth scare, then they may ignite inflation again and kind of cause that problem to reemerge, right? Where we have the bond market tanking and things like that. So it's risky. I'm not going to say that they've made a policy error yet. I'm just saying that there are a few signs out on the landscape that say that that's something maybe we should look out for. And if that's the trade, if that is the policy error and rates are going to go higher and inflation is going to creep back into the picture, then we're back to being long the commodity stocks and basic materials and natural resources and things like that.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, no, they were totally within range. And so I think that they did a good job with that. And now on this side of it, you know, we priced in a whole rack of rate cuts, right? Starting with the first one of September, 50 bips, and then we had nine priced in after that or whatever we were, wherever we were at the peak. You know, to me, that looked like the overshot, right? It's like, wait a minute, the economy is weakening, but it's not like one of those scenarios where I've got friends losing jobs left and right, you know, like it's not that. If that's the scenario and they're cutting rates and now all of a sudden you see after a 50-bit rate cut, the first Upside surprise and employment data in I don't know how many series of data That's just worth noting They just cut 50 basis points, and last week we got a non farm payroll data.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and I don't like to go too deeply into this stuff because I'm not an economist, right? I'm a trader, and I am a Fed watcher, so I do have the idea that, you know, seeing them, you know, we were just, you know, the last battle that we had was getting inflation from 9% back into the bottle at 2.5%, 3%, right? That took a Herculean effort by the Federal Reserve, right? They did an unbelievable job managing interest rate expectations. We rose fed funds to five and a half percent, leveled them off, the stock market tolerated it. And in my opinion, the Fed did an unbelievable job battling that headline inflation data, like unbelievable. That's why when people say that Fed lost control of the markets or something like that, I kind of quietly laugh hysterically”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think that point about reacting and seeing how markets react to specific events is super key. So I want to shift gears a little bit to what we've been seeing with the Fed and macro. You had mentioned earlier in the show that there was potential for this 50 bits policy mistake. And what I find really funny is that we got a 50 bits cut. But in a way, we actually saw financial conditions somewhat tighten because the long bond has been just the yields have been surging. Mortgage rates have been surging since that cut, which just really shines a light on how important, you know, positioning and where the market is versus what actually occurs. So do you want to unpack that idea of potential for a policy mistake here on going 50 versus 25? And what's your view on that?”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, it's glorious. It's glorious. I mean, you could have shorted NVIDIA up against the old highs and made money. You can buy the software breakout into strength and make money. You can get long financials as they're roaring into earnings and make money. I mean, this is great trader stuff. You know, it doesn't get any better than this.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Being in these trades, especially the way the market's been this year, the way the breakouts have been working, you know, the market is just as perfectly functional as it can be right now.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Break out through technical resistance to all time highs. That's a trade that I've got to be in. Right, they've been these three sectors internet, software, excuse me, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and software, they've largely been consolidating all year, right? They're trailing semiconductors in the tech hierarchy. You know, they're up kind of 15, 20% on the year, maybe 20 something percent on the year, but they've been trailing, and now they just had a fresh breakout. So when I look back at that and I say, okay, we made it through the inflation data. rates are a little bit higher the stock market can tolerate it and these sectors are breaking out like i'm in right so i've added those i've re-added the s p to my view matrix i've added the software sectors as a new long to my view matrix and now we're just managing that risk you know i understand they may back off and these may be the highs but i'm a trader and i got to be in this you know and if it backs off i'm going to sell it and get out and do something else smarter you know but i have no problem”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you know, I'm looking, I navigate it. Felix, by looking at reactions, right? And every day and every week is a market reaction to something, right? So the way that I navigate it as a trader is last week as I see it developing, the CPI is out hotter than expected, right? The bond market and stock market can tolerate it. And look what's breaking out. Software, cloud storage, right? So what I do is I navigate right into those positions while they're kind of telegraphing a breakout into CPI PPI. We get CPI and PPI out of the barn. That unknown is removed. And now we've got some nice follow through in those tech sectors. So that's just like one very small example of how I try to navigate this market. And it's all about taking the trade the market's giving you, right? And if we're going to have these three sectors simultaneously.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To like 3,000 during his administration, you know, and it was really, really unbelievable move. And like we said before, something that the markets are starting to telegraph as he takes a new lead in the polls, you know, three weeks out from today. So I guess that's significant.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We just lowered rates, which could be a potential policy error. You know, we could get back into that scenario like we discussed just a few minutes ago where it's 2022 again and the risk of headline inflation being a lot worse than expected becomes the dislocation risk in the bond market, meaning dislocation lower when yields rally in response to inflationary data. So I think that that, you know, I have that in the back of my mind for things that could take place next year. But I think that it's going to be overridden by the sort of emotion that will be involved with the Trump victory if that happens for the markets. I think that that was really his signature move, you know, where he took the markets, the S&P from like, man, where was it? Like 12 or 1300 stuff.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you know, I do think it's a warranted concern. I think that this, you know, this Biden administration has been spending money like a drunken sailor, like all of their predecessors, right? Like, so we've increased the deficit massively. We've increased credit card debt massively.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Stock market is going to love that. Like, I think the SP might go to 7,000 under a second Trump administration with a lot of relief that we won't be going down the Kamala Harris, you know, unrealized capital gains tax route and, you know, all the other bullshit that she's trying to sell people to get votes and things like that. So I think that'll be a great relief. And it feels like we're pricing that in now. You know, the thing that's not being priced in is, you know, lower yields. I guess we kind of, you know, we kind of just saw that with the most recent Treasury rally where we priced in this huge growth scare. So that kind of rhymed with Trump trade stuff because he's definitely going to keep rates low. That's if he can keep inflation under check, right?”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, I want to, I like to try to stay neutral on elections, especially while they were polling in neutral territory. It looks like the Kamala facade is burning down a little bit. And I think that people realize that she's actually campaigning against her own administration's actions kind of thing. You know, like we got to, you know, like, so I think that, you know, she keeps writing her own Trump commercials, right? And Wallace is writing his own Trump commercials saying we can't have four more years of this, right? So obviously she takes a nosedive in the polls and the market says, wow, the S&P almost doubled under the last Trump administration. We should probably pay attention to that. And I definitely think that that's partially responsible for the next leg. This last leg up here in the S&P, you know, it sounds like that if Trump does get elected, that it's going to be another low regulation, smaller government, low rate admin.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To say, like, look in the rear view mirror. We just held a steep dip to 5200 that held the 200 day moving average. Then we held a shallower dip to 5,600 or whatever it was. And then we just blasted to 6K. I mean, that's a freaking bull market. That is a raging bull market. And, you know, that's, I think, the way that you have to play it. I've been in and out of the S&P a couple of times this year. I wrote it for 10 months on the long side from November 23 to about August. got out and then got back in again at the, I guess in the middle of September as we got through the rate cut and it looked like things are getting back on their feet again and I'm going which way the market tells me and when I see cyclical sectors and technology breaking out at the same time man the S&P is an easy long for me”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT