YouSaid · the spoken record

Tony Greer

lines on the record: 61
first: 2024-10-16
most recent: 2024-10-16
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Yes, so if we look in the rear view mirror, you know, we had the triple growth, we had the triple scare earlier in the year where there was the yen carry unwind, NVIDIA had peaked and backed off after splitting and the yield curve was steepening into positive territory. So with that triple whammy, the S&P sold off really sharply to 5,200, rallied right back to the highs, right? And then we had the sort of rate cut sell-off thinking that if the stock market was going to continue rallying while we were raising rates, that it might be reversing and be a sale while we're cutting rates of the economy is weakening. And it turned out we only dipped to 5,600 on that dip and then went right back right back to the highs again. So you got to look in the rearview mirror and have a lot of respect for the S&P technically for what it has done this year and how it sets up for the fourth quarter. I think that's a really key, you know, maybe observation.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, Tony, especially because, like, you know, the first part of this year was such a narrow rally in these specific semis. And there was concern that it was just a super narrow rally and was going to fade lower. But we've actually seen the opposite where the baton has been passed and we've seen the rally broaden out.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah. Well, the rotation, and I'm just turning my head to look at the year-to-date rotation because that's really important to me, Felix. You know, we've got semiconductors up at the top of the sector leaderboard up 42%, but then we've got home builders, gold miners, utility, home construction, financials, all of that's up over 25% on the year. So, man, you know, I mean, you know, we're chasing the semiconductor sector, but it's hard to keep an index down when financials and gold miners and industrials are breaking out like they are, right? It's like a cyclical plus tech plus tech.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It seems like nothing wants to hold it down, and I'm glad he brought up that comparison of what Tech did because if we rewind it to 2022, you'd probably get the opposite story on a hot inflation print. We'd see tech down, but tech soared. So it's interesting. I mean, it feels like, you know, yeah, like you said, if you're an equity bear, you're struggling here. You know, there's the dynamic of, okay, we got a lot of rate cuts. We got a 50 bits cut. But, you know, that's going to drive a pump in bid inequities here. But we've also seen over the last week that you mentioned is that, you know, probabilities of a 50 bits cut, say November, have actually been going down. The economy has been stronger than expected. Long bond yields have been going higher than expected. You would think that that would drag equities lower. But then you have, as you say, you know, it's this economy is better than expected dynamic. It feels like, I don't know, like it's sort of a win-win scenario in equities, don't you think?”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We also just had a week where transports rallied 5%. They're trading at all time highs. Industrials are breaking out to new all-time highs. So, man, if you want to be short and bearish, the S&P, good luck with that, man. You know, like to me, this thing's firing on all cylinders.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And like I said, but maybe this is the opportunity where some of the material sectors are just playing a little bit of catch up to the semiconductor sector that's in the lead. What's interesting though to me is the week that we got headline inflation that last week come in a little bit hotter. The key move, like the obvious move last week were that a few subsectors of tech broke out to new all-time highs. You know, cybersecurity, cloud computing, software, they all broke out to new all time highs kind of simultaneously right as we got through the rate cuts. Yeah, it's pretty amazing. So, to me, it's like, man,”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Steady path lower into the rig cuts and then kind of reverse after the rate cuts. So that's something to keep an eye on. And, you know, with the dollar reversal, we've seen some good headwinds in the commodity trade. So it's been kind of difficult to navigate. But I think that's kind of one place that you have to keep your eye if you're in this commodity trade and that's kind of how the interest rates and the dollar continue to interact with each other. So if bonds are going to go down, the dollar is going to go up. You're going to struggle with the commodity trade or I'm going to struggle with the commodity trade and sort of have to be on my toes for that. That's kind of how I'm looking at the world right now. You know, I'm still pretty bullish stocks for the fourth quarter. It seems like there's a lot of liquidity in the world. The price of Bitcoin is hanging in and VIDI is right to the highs. The S&P is carving new highs right up until this morning. So, I mean, that is very constructive price action. We're trading off of headlines now in the semi-sector, and that's fine and the market will digest that as well.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That rotation where everybody has to pile out of tech and into commodities because of headline inflation scares. That was kind of the 2022 trade, I think it was, where rates were going higher, commodities were going higher, technology was getting beat up because of higher yields and the growth companies were suffering, stuff like that. So I don't know if it's going to be that powerful of a sea change, but it feels like we're getting a little bit of that where base metals can come to life and kind of catch up with precious metals a little bit. You know, the dollar had been in a sort of pretty.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We're all thrown out with the baby in the bathwater for that gross scare that we just lived through that, you know, started over the summer and just recently ran right to the basically into the Fed's rate cut. So that seems like perfect timing for me to be an inflection point where maybe we see a little bit less, you know, we had nothing but semiconductor and tech leadership. Now maybe, you know, gold miners are starting to creep into the leadership picture on the year and they've been posting strong gains behind gold. And I think the rest of the commodity sector has a chance now. I think it got way oversold. I think funds are still short. Energy expecting a weaker economy and a really well supplied market. So I guess I'm looking for the commodities to come to life a little bit and maybe the technology sector to fade a little bit, you know, especially if bonds are a sale and rates are going to trade back up. You know, I don't know that we're in.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Set up for that policy error where we wind up stoking a little bit more headline inflation because of cutting rates so aggressively. You know, I don't, it seems like there's going to be a big rotational change as that happens, right? Like the stock markets survived the look into lower rates and the rate, the first 50 basis point rate cut and wants to keep going. And it feels like that's the direction that we're going to be heading in in stocks, but it does feel like I said, you know, we just got decent non-farm payroll data last week. We got decent employment, decent inflation data that was just a little bit hotter last week. So it feels like, you know, the market can accept that because the economy isn't so bad and the stock market can stay on its feet. And I think that we still see a rotation into more of a commodity trade and, you know, the hard assets.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, sure. Man, Felix, there's a lot to unpack there, but I think, you know, we can start with the semi sector and work backwards since you mentioned that. You know, it was interesting to see NVIDIA trying to break out to new all-time highs and then get rejected by this headline, which sounds like, you know, it's the Biden administration is discussing capping sales of advanced AI chips from NVIDIA and other American companies. So obviously there's the knee-jerk reaction to that that takes about 10% off the price. It also puts a kind of scary, false breakout up at the top of the chart. So maybe this is a turning point in NVIDIA where it gets one last run up to the highs and then it maybe struggles a little bit. I think that the bond market is key to keep an eye on here. You know, the big guys, you know, Druken Miller's short, Jared Dillian's still a chest pounding short in treasuries. It feels like we could be.”
2024-10-16 · Forward Guidance · The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT