YouSaid · the spoken record

Victoria Greene

lines on the record: 66
first: 2022-07-04
most recent: 2022-07-04
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“I am old, so I'm not on Twitter, but I am on LinkedIn and Facebook. That definitely made me sound super old. If you reach out to our website, g2pripvatevalth.com, there's an address there. We do a weekly newsletter, as well as we do monthly and quarterly updates. So we'd be happy to add you to the distribution list, just reach out and we'll put you guys on that. And we send out some pretty, pretty good stuff sometimes. And every now and then I'm right”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Marcus have rallied 30%, and you feel really stupid, and I'm telling you at the dollar cost average your way in now because we're a little late. So if you make a mistake, the best thing I can say is one, you throw up and get over it. Don't make a mistake, a worse mistake, right? So if you make a mistake and you sold out, fine and you miss it, then just suck it back up and get back in. You know, if you get hit, then you need to stay with it. And I think sometimes it's the compounding mistakes that really, really hurt an investor. I got this wrong, so now I'm going to reach for this, or I miss this. So now I'm going to wait because I got to wait and I'm going to wait. And then that one mistake that cost you five or eight percent suddenly becomes a 30% mistake.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because you missed the rebound days and you say, Well, I don't want to buy it now, right? It's expensive now, it'll come back down. This is just a bear market bounce. So now you set out the first couple days, and then that turns into a month. And suddenly you're sitting out six months to a year later. And now you're like, well, now crap, I got to get back in. So, you know, that's honestly what happens to a lot of people because when the market bottoms as a leading indicator, it bottoms while everything else sucks. And then when you miss it, then you feel like you've missed the opportunity and you're going to wait for it to come back. You know, you don't want to be dumb and buy when it's moved up 8% already. And with this market volatility, you can see this market move, you know, five to eight percent in a week right now, you know, much less, you know. So if you miss those, that's why staying invested even in a bear market, which is terrible. Feels like you're lighting money on fire, but you want to stay invested because I've seen it happen many, many times. And then you don't want to buy it. And then you don't want to buy in. And now we're sitting a year later.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Signals and data points there from technical signals. You know, does the SMP hold this 3815 level? If it breaks, you know, where's it going to go? If you look at the Fibonacci retracements, that's not super awesome when that one breaks. And so I think you just have to be very, very well aware of just hanging in there. So that's not fun. It's boring still. But if I think we're at least halfway through it, which I do, you're probably better off just holding what you own at this point because when that bottom comes, those days right after it tend to be the best days of the rebound. So if you're sitting out, first off, I'm going to say you're not going to feel comfortable investing in the bottom because it's going to be scary. And then secondly, you're going to miss probably the first few days. And then there's this thing and it happened to everybody. It happens at market timers all the time. 09 and 2020 are the best examples, which both happened in March. But so you have your rebound days and then you feel still.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, you want to look for signs, right? The VIX has been super quiet considering how many ugly, ugly downdraws we've had. You know, VIX over 40, RSI actually hitting oversold momentum. You know, the market has been especially up until June. The market was still like, oh, growth is crappy, value is holding up pretty well, energy's still doing well. Finally on June, you actually saw some capitulation of winners, which tends to actually happen as a bear market goes along. So there's kind of stages of a bear market. I think tend to think we're maybe in the sixth, seventh inning, you know, the worst has probably happened. June's super ugly. We'll see. We got a whole what another day. So maybe we can go up like 11% tomorrow and make June a little bit better. But the velocity of this bear market has been pretty fast. So yeah, I think it's stylish now to be a bear. But the thing you have to realize is, you know, you need to be prepared to update your position. So when you feel there are signals, you know, either from Fed and economic.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's great advice. Yeah, know what you own. If you don't understand it, get the hell out and don't get into the triple longs, the triple short. Or they have a five times left. Oh, never, never.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Kind of thrown out in the big wide world of investing, and there's lots of siren lures from lots of ETFs. I mean, you want to go triple net short on the 30-year treasury, knock yourself out. But whoo boy, when that goes wrong on you, it goes wrong and liquidity on those gets locked up too. So I just think investors, that would be kind of my parting thought is I think there's tons of opportunities at all times, right? You know, you might need to be patient just because there's an opportunity that doesn't mean you're going to make money tomorrow or the next month, you know, opportunity investing sometimes comes a year later, but you need to be patient and then you need to understand what you own and how what you own will do during a time of stress. So if you can't see how it did in a 08 or a 2018 or other times where it was very, very stressful or you feel comfortable with the back test or the wrist statistics and what it is, you probably need to avoid it a little bit. Be boring. That's my entire summary. Be boring.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, I don't think because of their supply constraints, I think the market's going to hit. I think you're just going to see, first off, I feel terrible for young people coming into the workforce right now because it's kind of miserable, you know, and it's a little sad. There's kind of this feeling that I can't buy a house or I'm going to be stuck renting and I, you know, I don't have a good job. You know, there's a little feeling of malaise, I think, in the younger generation right now. So I don't think the housing market is going to crash. I'm not quite on that side. I think you just need to be careful what you're buying and understand what you're buying. That would be my best advice I could give, quite frankly, that, you know, chase the risk you understand and you can feel comfortable with. If you don't understand it, don't buy it. So I don't care what it looks like on the screen or how well it's done. If you don't understand it, don't buy it. It's plain and simple. And that'll help you avoid a lot of things. But I think investors, there's a lot of great platforms now, but you've got.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, the interest rate, but if there's interest rate risk where there's no credit risk, right? Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Interest rate risk is real for sure. So there's been like huge sell up, like Annalie or investment REITs that the dividends are like 15%. Are those attractive to you or not really?”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so for your investing, how are you thinking about mortgages, mortgage-backed securities? Because I saw a recent interview, Howard Marks, a legendary investor with the Financial Times. He's getting very aggressive. His own words in all the stuff he invests in, high yield, distressed, mortgages, CLOs. But I'm looking at high yield spreads. I'm thinking he can't be super excited about where high yield is at. Like, there hasn't been that much of a sell-off. But the huge sell-off has been in mortgages, which, you know, for Jenny Mays, are essentially credit risk free, essentially.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Has changed, you know, not to say there aren't people willing to do that, there always will be, but I think people started taking a step back and kind of driven by pandemic and saying, well, what do I want my life to look like? Where do I want to live? Quite frankly, some of those things that people like I didn't think about that necessarily. I just needed a job. Like that wasn't as big of a decision for me. I just wanted a job that paid me money, you know?”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Put the pilots and then low rates because everybody could get a mortgage. Banks wanted to lend money to people, you know, it was easy credit and low rates. So the market worked. And now that the market, you know, you're at a five mortgage, give or take and supply is getting built. You know, it's also is the supply getting built in the right places. You know, there's still some shortages because people, you know, people migrated in ways we hadn't seen before. And I think that migration, you know, kind of tethers in with the whole work from home. That migration is probably going to stick around a little bit because there's a lot more jobs that are acceptable to be done remotely and not, you know, I'm technically an old millennial myself, so don't hate on me, but the millennial and the younger generation does tend to very much care about work-life balance. So the desire to live in a tiny New York City apartment, you know, you see all those laughable pictures where it's like a studio and like the shower in the bathroom or in the kitchen, like people's desires to live in apartments like that and work, you know, 80 hours a week.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so some of it away, we have to go all the way back. What is that like 14 years now? Oh my God. OA really is some of the root cause. So that was such a bad recession that hit specifically the housing market that we underbuilt for about five years, massively underbuilt housing for like five years. So then we're playing catch up now. So we've been playing catch up and it didn't really speed up until more recently. And at the same time, we did that COVID hit with then set us back again. But then people started moving. And again, we used to have all of this great data of here are the known patterns and yeah, we have ebbs and flows in city, out, city, this or that. But people started moving in ways they hadn't moved before. And so then you've seen certain communities like your Austin, Texas, your Miami, Florida's of the world, like just explode because people were no longer as tethered as they used to be to a different location. So I think those two factors were”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As someone who rents in a city, I'm very far away from the housing market. But I look at the chart. I see that mortgage rates have just absolutely exploded higher. How can you explain that? Just supply and demand. More people want mortgages, fewer banks want to do it. Is it the plumbing of the mortgage-backed security market? Because we're seeing some pretty standard deviation moves in terms of moves from treasuries, in terms of spread.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Depends on the labor market. So, if the labor market started hurting badly, then maybe they've got to do something, because right now they can ignore the labor market. So if the labor market starts rearing its ugly head, housing rolls over, liquidity rolls over, something like that, that they need, they're going to need an external catalyst. And I think the only things that would move them, in my opinion, is labor market coming under stress, unemployment rising, and continuing to rise, liquidity drying up in cash markets or in bond markets, or the housing market imploding a little bit. One of those three would definitely start to destabilize. So that point then, they kind of have this thing they can say, well, yeah, inflation's high, but they don't have a but right now. Like, the only thing they have is inflation's high because everything else still works. So as long as everything else is still working, why wouldn't the Federal Reserve hike aggressively?”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To maintain lifestyle, you know, you're starting to see credit balances creep back up because people are trying to maintain lifestyle in an era of very”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and that again, we're so used to things move so fast right now. So even monthly indicators feel slow. Like, you know, PMI and things like that. So I think they're going to contract. You know, I think everybody's under some pressure. You know, we'll hit below 50 for contraction. But I think just generally speaking, the amount of, so if you're an average person, then you're already in a personal recession because of what this has done to your income. So your rent's probably gone up, your gas costs a lot more, your food costs a lot more, and then we all didn't get to travel. So now we're traveling and you're travel definitely costs a lot more. And God forbid you're buying a car. So even if the markets aren't that there, technically, I think you could argue anybody making less than 100,000, even the 100,000 people are feeling like they're in a recession because they're cutting back, you know, or it hurts more and they're dipping into savings or they're putting things on credit cards.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Turn us over and then once the Fed hikes, you know, and things start to really fall apart, then they'll be like, oh, surprise we're dovish. Please stop hurting.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“1932, that one was like the worst one out there. So sometimes you got to make sure you step back and realize there can be other recessions that aren't quite as devastating as 08 was. That's why we're focused on quality. I think you're still short duration. Look that front end of the curves and it's going to keep coming up. You know, come July, you'll be able to buy some really short, you know, bonds making, what, two and a half percent basically. But two and a half percent and eight inflation sucks, but we definitely invest in a relative world, not an absolute world. So you have cash making zero. You have a savings account right now, making maybe 1%, or you can buy a short T-bill or CD making two and a half. And so I'll take my 2.5. I'll sit somewhere safely. And then I want my blue chip stocks. And again, we're trying to avoid landmines this year. We want to be areas we think are going to weather stress. But I think this is going to be short. You know, like I said, I kind of see this turning around in the fall because I think the Fed's going to hike aggressively. That's going to.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So that's more of like a crowning achievement. Like, congratulations, we're in a recession, you know, but everything else, a lot of the damage, the market's a leading indicator, a recession as a lagging indicator. So, you know, you look at this, and that's my concern. And I know that the Fed is saying, yeah, we can land this, that we can soft land it. At this point, I'm just hoping to walk away from the crash landing because I don't really see a soft landing because the Fed historically has not done well with time periods like this. And again, it's not all their fault. They can't control a lot of these things. But look, recessions tend to be shorter. Bear markets tend to be shorter than bull markets. If you look at an average, which we think this is going to be an average recession at best, then it's not going to be the end of the world. So, yeah, it's going to hurt. People are going to lose their jobs. There's going to be stress and pressure, but it's going to be something we got to make sure that you don't over panic. So right now, when people think recession, they think 2008. And sort of.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So we are a team recession, sadly. Sorry. Not to be cheering that on, but we've been calling that for a while. And you're right, it's a technical definition. And they just, I think today revised down Q1 GDP even further. So Q2 is looking a little sketchy. And that would be the technical definition. But I think, you know, not to play, though, let's look around and how does the world feel. But I feel like we're in an emotional recession already. You know, you look at consumer sentiment, you look at where PMIs are heading, you're looking at some of the charts of business expansion and anything like that. You definitely feel a contraction right now hasn't hit the labor market, but we had so much slack in the labor market. It's going to take a little bit for that to catch up, as well as the concerns on housing rolling over, you know, housing definitely hit a bubble. And that may end up rolling a little bit more. So yes, I do think we're in a recession. At some point, I think we'll check that box. And again, by the time we hit a recession, a lot of the damage has been done because it's a lagging indicator.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, if you've heard about it on like Sirius XM radio, probably shouldn't just put your money into it. Or if you get like a internet advertisement for venture capital, like or Facebook advertisement, I've got a couple of those and I'm like, whoa, buddy. I'm happy they can do that. But I think it's also some of those things are very risky. You need to understand what you're getting into. And not saying they're bad investments, but there's so much heightened due diligence you have to do on VC specifically because you're saying, hey, this company is not fully formed, but we're going to make it work and we're going to make a ton of money. But when it is that risk, you really need the right management team, the right access to capital, the right market, you know, the right support and connections to make that company really work. I mean, there are companies that fail every day, not because they're bad products, but because they're poorly run companies or they didn't have the right access. And, you know, that's just the way that this world works.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, interval fund's a mutual fund, but it doesn't have daily nowf and redemptions. Typically, it's monthly or quarterly. So it's basically like a hedge fund light. So technically, it's a mutual fund. You can buy it if it's available on your platform. It's run like a mutual fund. You see it there. There's no extra paperwork. It's a 1099 versus a K1. But, you know, it does redemption process is different. So it's a quarterly lockup typically. And so the way I put it is hedge fund light. It's kind of this way and I'm all about democratizing alternatives, but there's also a reason some alternatives are for ultra-high net worth people is you need to understand what liquidity means. You need to be able to understand what these investments come with a different risk profile than a normal investment. So I always get a little worried whenever new products come out because they may not work as intended or they may end up blowing up.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If you're your early stage company or whatever you are, I'm going to let you handle this money. You're going to make good decisions. And it's good for investors because it's also usually capital call, right? A lot of private equity, you say, yeah, I'll put a million bucks in your fund, but you don't give them a million up front. You typically, you know, they typically have some investments lined up. They close, you give them 200,000, and then sometimes even it starts kicking off income or money or distribution, then you end up not even having to put in what your initial call amount was because they can distribute it back. I like private equity. I think people need to be careful. I know they're coming out with interval funds, which is basically hedge fund light. It's a hedge fund and a mutual fund wrapper where it's like redemptions are smooth and quarterly. And I tend to be very suspect of any new product on a street. Not to say it can't work, right? There's lots of things that can work.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Don't just buy a PE fund because it looks nice and bright and shiny. You know, we tend to like managers that have a track record. We tend to not do startup funds or first vintage fund. You know, everybody says, oh, you know, I used to work at Goldman or at Blackstone. And, you know, I'm really good at what I do. I promise. But sometimes it's a little bit harder than I anticipated when they're outside of the ecosystem they used to exist in. So, you know, we look at that as a way to supplement returns. It does help kind of offset some risk. You know, you have some smoothing there. You're buying real assets, real assets do tend to have a very good, you know, they tend to be a good hold. And they tend to be patient. And when you do private equity, you kind of take some of the emotion out of it because you don't have a choice. You're stuck unless you die. Like you're not getting back out of that unless you die or find somebody to buy it from you. And even then sometimes transferring interest, they won't let you do it. So some of it's also taking out that bad decision from investors and saying, look, you know, you're a real estate company or you've”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The offices, but I think there's going to have to be an acceptance of work from home for some departments. Like technology is a very great department that really IT does not actually need to probably go into the office because they can just remote in and there's very few problems they can't fix that way. And so there are some departments, I think, that work better as a remote department and some departments that need more collaboration or in-person. But what's that going to do as this acceptance has kind of happened? And it's almost a forced acceptance because I think a lot of employees are saying, yeah, no, I'm not going back to the office. That's really cool. Glad you're making us come back to work. Here's my two-week notice. We're in a tight labor market. I'm going to jump to company B. That's going to let me work from home. And commuting right now also is like a massive strain on people's budget. So people are much less willing to come in unless there's a viable reason to come in. But so that's going to continue to shift the environment. And I like private equity because, you know, again, you have to do your due diligence.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Say, of course, they say they had targets, but you saw a lot of SPACs fail. And I think the failure rate was something like 90% or the trading below the IPO price or whatever. So those, I think you can still have a good one. You just need to be aware of what you're buying and a wing and a prayer is not necessarily a great investment strategy. And everything's going to sound good. Like I've never met a product that has a bad backtest and I've never met a spac that didn't have some amazing marketing material. So everything sounds good, but if it's too good to be true, probably is. So if they're promising you these crazy returns, probably is wrong. Private equity, I think, is a good space to be on. You know, liquidity tends to make you more money. I think there's going to be a lot of things changing over the next decade, you know, anything from real estate continuing to shift and what happens to commercial real estate as work from home. Work from home is not going away. Hybrid work, you know, I think companies definitely still want people.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So specs were a really great way for rich people to get richer. I'm going to say the only people that made money in SPACs were the people that were sponsoring the SPACs and the banks. And they were really, really profitable way for those people to make money. I think SPACs made sense when it was a specific thing. Like what DraftKing was, I would say, a successful SPAC. But that was a planned and, you know, cut the IPO thing. And then you have that just explode and everybody has a SPAC and they're raising money and you're saying, oh, he's a smart guy. He's going to find something to buy. And it's a little more complicated than that. So the concept of a SPAC, I don't hate. I did hate where the market went. And I think a lot of people got taken advantage of because it's super easy to make promises because you actually have like minimal disclosures you have to make. You're saying give me my money and I'll go buy something maybe in this industry maybe at some point. And then that, you know, and I feel like people form them without actually having targets, which of course they didn't.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So that's the world of listed equities. What about the more opaque worlds of venture capital, private equity, as well as SPACs? Are you, you know, do you and your clients get involved in, do you guys swim in that water, in those waters as well? Yeah, so what are you sort of seeing there?”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“With so much cash that they love, love pullbacks. You know, you talk to Warren Buffett. Warren Buffett loves it when the market drops because then he can discount chop. And that's what he wants to buy. And so typically under stress, you see consolidation. You saw that when the energy market froze up and you saw like partially get snapped up and some of these other operators get snapped up and merged, which were good deals for the companies that got them because they got pretty good product just because the company got under stress and people panicked and maybe they didn't have enough liquidity. not always a death knell but the company may cease to exist in some form or another”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so you have to look at that and say, okay, so I have a company under stress. It's not making money. Maybe it has a great product that just hasn't been developed yet, but not even just having a good product. You got to be able to sell that product. You got to market that product. You got to innovate that product. You know, like take an apple, for example. They started with computers and now we know them basically for phones. And I bet you in about 15 years, all we're going to know them for is wearable tech and like the chip in our head or whenever we get to there. But, you know, the Apple has continued to evolve, evolve, evolve. And that takes some good strong leadership. So just be careful because sometimes there's a reason things get hit that hard. It's not just because it's unloved. Sometimes people, the company can struggle. And the other flip side of this is sometimes there's great acquisition. So sometimes you'll have a crappy company with a good product that gets under pressure and you have an Apple or an Amazon with billions and billions or a Berkshire.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Reasons things trade where they are, and they're called value drops. So just because it's trading where it is doesn't make it a good stock or a good value, because if it has no profitability and it has high debt, that can definitely go to zero. And I would lovingly remind everybody of pets.com and that hold debacle back in the 2000s. You know, least we forget, 2000 was a great example of unprofitable companies that when the tides turn.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and so it's going to depend stock by stock, but I'm going to say just because a stock drops 70% doesn't mean it can't continue to drop the rest of the 30%. So you go from 500 to 100, that really, really hurts, but there's nothing stopping that from going to 100 to 700 from 100 to 30 and dropping a further 70%. And eventually it'll hit zero. But as you mentioned, some of these unprofitable companies, you know, people talk about the tech bubble. I'm like, we're already in our own bubble. You saw the ArcFund bubble type and the unprofitable company's bubble. And I think they're still going to be punished. And you need to feel comfortable that your stock's not going to go to zero. And sometimes if you have a bad stock that doesn't actually make money and has a lot of debt, you need to fully consider that it can't actually go to zero. And sometimes you get, you know, you have a sunk cost in it and then you talk yourself into keeping it. And there's sometimes a reason it went down to 70%. It's not just because it fell out of favor or blame the hedge funds or all the other reasons we love to blame the hedge for why stocks go down. But sometimes there's a”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“2020, they were still extremely unprofitable. Let's say a stock that, you know, and again, I'll just say Zoom because you mentioned Zoom, Zoom's went from $500 to $100. Where is the intrinsic value? Where's the bottom? Where's the floor?”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“How do you think about a floor, which is a very dangerous word in investment world, almost as dangerous as the word ceiling? But let's take a value company like, oh, I don't know, AT&T, or let's say Berkshire Hathaway. You know, Berkshire Hathaway, God forbid, got cut in half, S&P 500 would do very poorly, but there would become a certain level where you're saying, okay, they have this railroad, they have utilities, they have all these equities. At some point it's trading below its book value. It's trading. You could say I'm not putting a floor on where how low it will go, but I'm putting a floor of intrinsic value within a margin of safety, you know. But how do you do that on something like Zoom or which has a good business model? It is profitable, but or something I might say that is not a profitable company. I won't name any names, but there have been tons of companies that have come out of Silicon Valley, have never ever made a diamond profit. They probably don't know what that word means. And in the best possible world where everyone was staying at home during”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Years to entry are not that high. So everybody basically uses Microsoft Office Suite, most everybody. And so sometimes having the teams integration or you've got like a ring central, you know, VOIP or however you run your company, you tend to work within your own ecosystem. So I think Zoom out is a great product. I think it's going to be difficult for them to grow because a lot of people brought their product. And, you know, and they'll have subscription, but that's recurring revenue. How do you actually grow your company? And they're trying. They're coming out with new features. But I think they're a good poster child. If everybody got super excited about them, there was a time there were certainly undervalued. We all started using Zoom. And then now it is part of one office suite. It's no longer innovative. It's no longer new. It's a tool to be used. And then you have competition.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Which historically means you're not actually banking a lot of profit because you're trying to aggressively change something. That's really hard when liquidity slows down and the world slows down because typically those more aggressive companies have trouble finding debt at a reasonable price. So let's say you want to expand, you're trying to refinance debt and you're a more aggressive company, that tends to put a lot of pressure on you to actually do that in a time of stress because banks are going to want to loan to the IBMs before they loan to little startup here that's going to possibly change the world or, you know, maybe not changing the world is extremely difficult and many companies set out to do that. And let's talk about Zoom, for instance. So Zoom is a great product. There's nothing against Zoom. You know, it was a pandemic, darling. It definitely got way, way, way too expensive. But the problem with Zoom is I now have a lot of people that like Teams now and Microsoft did a better job. You have Slack. You know, you have other technology coming in and they're buried.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So when you're looking around the market, that's one of the things I think I like is right now with resilient revenue stream. So not something that if some people are paying more on food and gas that they're going to stop buying a product, it's more people have to buy your product or people are going to use you. So like a Costco or a Walmart tend to historically do very well during times of stress because they're kind of bargain shopping. And we want to look for that. We're going to want to look for things that people will still want to buy, even if they're under stress. So the high flyers and, you know, no offense, Kathy Wood, I think, is a brilliant person. And her funds are wonderful funds. They're just difficult in this market. Innovation typically comes with cash burn. You're trying to change something. You're doing a lot of R&D. Your balance sheet's usually a little terrible. And then you're burning cash because you're trying to either aggressively enter new markets or you're trying to develop new products. Or, you know, you're doing something different.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's about quality. So, a boring company has good balance sheet, sustainable cash flow, lowered, you know, your debt's lower, usually pays a dividend, there's stability, there are more blue chips. And so like an IBM, I love to talk about IBM because everybody kind of forgets it exists. It still exists. It's very profitable company. And they're kind of doing a turnaround now where they spun off Kindrel and they're working on the hybrid cloud with the Red Hat acquisition they did a couple years ago and it's a decent company, but it pays a 5% yield. It's trading at like a 14 time multiple in tech. And it's a very necessary service for a lot of companies. Even if you have layoffs, you still need IT. Like IT is typically like the last area they lay off because there's no way you can get without IT you need people that understand how the servers work and how to actually get you logged back in when you forget your passwords and you know and generally still looming cybersecurity and network and consulting so I think that area is very resilient”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I remember in 2021 noticing, wow, the more junk the company is, the more it's going up. The more debts it has, the more speculative the future business prospects. Victoria, you said that you were attracted to boring companies, boring investments in 2022. Why was that the case? And why do you think it is that the more exciting companies of 2020 and 2021 are the ones that have performed the worst?”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Every now and then, somebody does hit that big jackpot. You know, people definitely can go to Vegas and win money. But if you play the probability game, the vast majority of people go to Vegas and lose money. But at least when you go to Vegas, it's fun to lose money. I mean, in the stock market, it just kind of gives you heartburn.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Nobody likes that. It's not a popular view. It's much more fun to read everything. But a lot of times you're better off having a boring account and that's your steady eddy. And that's really what you plan on living and retiring on. And then I'll be super happy for you if you hit some small cap that goes up a thousand percent. But I also think you're more at risk of probably losing that than you are at hitting those big jackpot winners. It's like going to Vegas. If you're trading, it's a lot more like Vegas, right?”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, think about your Maslow's hierarchies of needs. If you don't have money to pay your bills, you probably shouldn't have all of it in risky investments. And I get sometimes it's this lure, right, that you see other people getting rich and reddit. And I hate to tell people this, but people lie on the internet all the time. So people will go and brag about that one trade they got right and they'll give you a screenshot of how much money and you're going to be like oh man that person's so smart and they're not telling you about like the 30 of them they got wrong and lost like five times as much money than the one they got right so someone that stuff is very hard to do and i'm very happy that platforms have engaged investors especially young investors i fully love that there you never get back time there's so many things you can do an investment”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You afford to wait a year to sell this if you can't afford to wait a year, maybe, and you're going to need this to pay your utility bill. Maybe it's not the right investment for you. I think it's a good time for investors to do a gut check. Everybody's risky and everybody loves taking risk when the markets are going up. And then suddenly we find out everybody's tree risk tolerance when the markets start turning around and going down. And I'm going to tell you, being a good investor is you need to be a good investor in the up markets and the down markets. And being a bad investor during down markets tends to destroy more wealth than you'll ever build on the upmarket. But liquidity always trumps portfolio strategy because you got to pay a bill. I don't care how down your positions are. You're going to have to pay your bill somehow. So I do definitely tell people they need to understand their liquidity needs. You need to have a little bit of a buffer so you can withstand any downside volatility or having some income sources in that'll support you.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Typically, you see this dry up a little bit, and then you just have to be wary. And I think the biggest thing is if the market's in a lock-up day, like we're down a thousand points, that's a terrible day to sell because that's the day you're going to get the worst price because that's the day traders love because they know they're going to see panic people that are fire selling. So they will give you the worst price possible. Why not? Because you're going to take whatever price they give you if you're on a panic. So I think you definitely have to fight that desire to sell on those nasty days because I think that's where you're most at risk. You know, and either wait or sell little bits. And that way you can kind of control a little bit better, not getting, you know, not having a liquid investment. So I would look at your portfolio, especially small caps are likely traded stuff. Make sure you feel comfortable holding it. You might be holding it a little bit, or you need to be prepared of the small, small block allocations. And right now, I think you need to be stress testing your risk.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are still very, very liquid. And yeah, they're volatile, but the bid ass are still pretty tight. You go down on the small cap market, then I think, yeah, you're going to have a little bit more trouble trading stuff. Well, you can trade it. It's just whatever price you get. You're going to have to just take. And it may be a much wider spread than investors are used to. And I think investors, if you're trading anything risky, you should really be looking at your bid ask bread and going on some sort of analytic software to see what the market's doing and what you're being offered. Because typically you play trade through a platform, right? And not that you have a lot of choice. You either take the price they want or you set a limit order or you don't buy it or sell it. A lot of investors aren't institutions or hedge funds that can pick up the phone and call 10 trading desks and ram something through. But you want to be really focusing on you may have to unload a position slower, maybe instead of selling 100 shares, you're selling 10 shares over 10 days so you don't move the market. And just that acknowledgement that with heightened risk.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's funny you asked. There was actually an article this morning on Bloomberg I was reading about the credit markets actually having a little bit of that problem that some mutual funds that used to be able to unload a position in a couple days are now struggling over weeks and a lot of banks are coming out warning that they don't want to trade that stuff. They don't want it. They don't want it on their balance sheets. And so you're seeing this disconnect happen a little bit mostly in the credit markets and the high yield space. So yeah, you're seeing wider spreads there. But even like the Treasury auction this week wasn't that great. So you're seeing some of these signals that you just have less buyers and sellers and we're still getting pretty good bid ask spreads. You know, some of it's your best execution on the platforms you're using. You just have to be knowledgeable, you know, trade in blocks, you know, bigger size because sometimes small blocks you tend to get a little bit, right? You're buying a couple shares. You tend to not always get the best price or you get a little bit couple pennies, you know, but it adds up. And I think also it's where you're trading in the market. So Apple is still like any of the large cash.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I want to hone in on that. So you say the Fed is withdrawing liquidity, but if there is no liquidity, then the Fed will come back. In what way are you seeing that the Federal Reserve's actions both on rates as well as quantitative tightening impact the market condition? So for example, if I, you know, as a retail investor buy Apple, I see the price as $140. Maybe it's $140 bid, $140 and one penny ask. But I just do it at the market. But a lot of your clients are quite wealthy individuals. So if you're trading in size, are you noticing, oh, wow, hey, what is this? 140, 142 ask? Or, you know, obviously not that big, but in sort of some of the more illiquid stocks, are you seeing just an ability to enter and exit positions? Has that ability less so now that yeah?”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You did not have that steamroll into a Great Depression. And I think that everybody, you know, yes, there was maybe a little bit too much extra stimulus on the back end we didn't need that caused this inflation problem. But during that early part of 2020, I think there was concern we could have an 08 or a 32 type event and you were going to see multiple people in long-term unemployment and then you're going to see housing fall apart. And we saw how well that worked in 08 when housing falls apart. So generally speaking, they did handle that fairly well. But now we're in a different situation where they have to remove liquidity from the market. And that's not good for stocks. There's nobody there kind of providing that. They're actually actively trying to take it away from you. And that tends to be a very uphill battle.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And then, you know, we come back to work in September, and there is going to be a substantial data gap between now and September. So I'm going to say I'm a little data dependent, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 50 in September because if the market is still able to do it, the Fed wants to put as much distance between them and zero so then they have tools to ease as the economy rolls over. You know, I'm not a proponent. They'll be able to do a soft landing.”
2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT