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Victoria Greene

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2022-07-04
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2022-07-04
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  1. “They're fully committed on inflation. And whatever happens in the labor market, they really don't care because the labor market's so tight, it's absorbing any problems. After this labor market starts to kind of creep up a little bit and unemployment rate starts to creep up, at some point the Fed's going to have to say, hey, we can't have this singular focus on inflation. We've got to, you know, we've got to worry about unemployment. And at that point, that's when I think they're going to switch a little bit more dovish. And at that point is definitely an area that I want to be a market buyer. But right now I would ask, you know, what would stop the Fed from continuing to hike? What possible reason? There's no rule saying I can't go over 3%. And, you know, there's things we think that'll happen, but, you know, they're going to keep going and they're going to go at a fast clip because quite frankly, the market is over 75 basis points just fine in June. And I think the market is ready for 75 in July. And there's then this lovely gap in August because nobody in finance works in August.”

    2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “Pushing up. Every time we were bouncing a little bit, we were hitting lower highs, which is a bad chart pattern to have. And then your macro started changing fairly quickly. And so I think you kind of start looking at those and you realize, hey, I need to be a little more cautious. And we're looking for signals that absolutely were V buyers of this market. I think it's still a little early. You know, we haven't really been deploying a lot of capital to snap things up. I think it's a little early for growth since the Fed, and our view is going to continue to be hawkish. And we adhere by the prime directive, don't fight the Fed. And right now, the Fed is tightening. The Fed's going to run off their balance sheet a little bit. And, you know, we always look for catalysts. So we're always thinking about what are we looking for, what's been changing. So for us, what we're really looking for right now is that if unemployment starts creeping up, which it might, you know, you're starting to see tech companies, right? They're starting to have some layoffs in the more aggressive sectors. So right now, the Fed is laser focused and they've said that.”

    2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “Yeah. So it was like clockwork in 21. Remember, we go down 10% and it was literally like it hit like $9.99 and it bounced and it bounced and it hit that trend line and that uptrend was support was in there and support started breaking. And then, you know, we saw what was happening with Russia and Ukraine and the macro and that started changing opinions. And I think that's one thing, you know, we talked about conviction earlier. You have to be willing to change if the data changes. Like you can't just put blinkers on and be like, no, no, no, no, no. Everything's fine still, you know, and I think investors have to be willing to take new data, not to say you knee jerk on it. Not every data point is important or market moving. But if you get new data, then you have to be willing to change what you see in the market. So yeah, we were absolutely buyers of the dips because that worked like clockwork, right? Went down 10%. You bought it. It went back up and it hit new highs, went down 10% and you bought it. But then we started hitting lower highs, right? So instead of higher highs and”

    2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “Over the past ten years, Victoria, I think people who bought the dips have been rewarded. If the S&P sells off 8%, you got to buy, you will be rewarded for that. But I get the sense that over this past year, as the S&P 500 went down 8%, you weren't convinced that now is the time to buy the dip. Why, yeah, and I just want to make that clear for the audience that you have had what is for you an unusually bearish bias this year. So you have been right as well as long energy. What is that view centered around? It hasn't centered around necessarily the growth value. It's more around the Fed, around inflation. To show us your macro thesis and why you thought this wasn't a minor blip, this was like a serious correction could be on the horizon.”

    2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “Hitting levels that were very overvalued, you know, and it's hard sometimes investors just look at the SP 500 and I have to remind them that right now as a cap-weighted index, it's very similar to the Russell 1,000 growth or the NASDAQ, not quite as volatile as the NASDAQ, but so, so tech heavy. You start looking at the top 10 stocks and you realize, you know, you're owning the Fang plus Tesla. Basically, when you own SPY or any of the S&P 500, nothing wrong with that. But, you know, people think that this big diversified index because it's got 500 stocks in it, but you kind of start to look at the weighting and you realize 10 stocks are going to dominate how that index does. And the other 490, they kind of matter, but not really.”

    2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “Do you remember Obama's cash for clunkers? That was trying to get some really, really, really old trucks off the road. And they thought those things would be gone by now. And you ended up having to pay people to give up their whole cars to get to admission standards. So kind of look at that and you realize adoption is a little bit slower. So I think you just have to feel comfortable and again buy low sell high when we were selling at the end of last year, tech stocks were flying extremely high. And you'd have these back to back to back years that they made so much money. And, you know, I'm not going to say we got out of it completely. I wish I could say that. But, you know, we certainly trim the position back and we've been taking all those gains back off. And that helped bunker us a little bit better and be a little bit more prepared because I am a proponent that, you know, history rhymes. So anytime you have these massive run-ups like we saw off the 2020 low, we're getting nervous, right?”

    2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. “So there's nothing wrong with them. I'll first out say this. I'm not a tech hater. You know, first off, I own like seven ample products. So obviously I like solely support Apple's stock price with just the things I buy. But we got worried, right? So one, the growth versus value is that had gotten so wide and dispersed and everything is”

    2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. “And you did though. You did have a cautious view on the market. You've been positioning your clients away from sort of the high beta risk assets into sort of safe stuff. Tell us why you did that. And also, maybe you said you rotated out of large cap growth last year. Why did you do that?”

    2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. “Out of bottom because it's gonna feel worse. Like when the market bottomed in 2020, it was March and everything was terrible, terrible, right? So yeah, I was going down 10%, but at that point, more people were thinking, well, this is like the end of the stock market. We're going to go to zero than people were thinking to buy it. And then even look at 2008 when that when we bottomed in March of 09, unemployment was still rising and things were terrible. We generally thought this was going to be a great depression. And so we talk about, oh, I'll just know when to get back in. But I'm like, really, really? You're going to tell me you're scared now and you're going to pull the trigger when things are worse. And it's very hard to do.”

    2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. “You know, about taxes. And really, what are you trying to solve? So if you're just saying, I'm worried it's going to go down another 10%, I would argue a lot of investors are better off just holding that 10% and grinning and bearing it than trying to time it. Because when that market turns, I'm going to call you and say, hey, maybe we should buy this. And you're going to think I'm insane because you already think the world is terrible right now. Just wait till the market goes down further. It's going to feel like a complete dumpster fire. And so it's very hard for investors actually to get back in. We talk ourselves into it. Well, we know the market's going to go. We know the market's going to go down. So great. Let's sell and sit on the sidelines. But one, do we really know? Like the Fed could change its mind. We could have new data come out. Like things happen all the time. If the market followed a very known path, there wouldn't be a market. We'd all know. And then two is it's very hard to actually pull the trigger.”

    2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. “10 seconds off every lap. So if I can continue to make good decisions for you, help you avoid bad decisions, then we're picking up all of those basis points and it really adds up by the end of the year. And so we really focus on efficiency. And then you have to fight your personal biases. And a lot of times we're talking clients through very difficult periods. So, you know, right now there's a lot of stress in the market. And the fundamental buy low and sell high, you know, we override that, right? We're creatures of fight or flight and the desire to flight right now is extremely high. And so a lot of times we just want to give you good data points. Okay. So let's talk through the pros and cons. Let's talk through what can happen at the end of the day. It's truly your money. So if you tell me to sell, we'll absolutely sell and sit you on the sidelines. I don't care. I get paid either way. I'm fee-based. But we want to tell you, you know, the pros and cons, you know, what are the risks? What are the opportunity costs? What are the true costs?”

    2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. “Do you have a long term loss? I want to book it because I can carry those forward. And so you have to be active and you have to be prudent, but you really need to be focused on, you know, do I think the market's going to be higher a year from now? Yes, I do actually in a year. I think it'll be higher in five years, yes, then some of these shifts, it's more, okay, what parts of the markets do I want to own? And then how do I benefit you, the client? Can I do all of this tax law selling? Can I put you in some proxies? Can I, you know, shorten up and look at how much we're getting paid on the front end right now and make you more income than you used to be making on bonds and make sure we're minimizing cash drag. You know, all those things that maybe they add a half a percentage point. But, you know, I heard it explain once. It's like swimming laps in a pool. If you're swimming 500 meters and you want to take a minute off, you don't just swim one lap a minute faster. You're trying to take”

    2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. “So realize a bunch of tax consequences. And then what I'm calling you in six months to buy it back, like there's an actual true cost to a lot of investors. So I think you just have to be firm on your views. You have to have conviction. And I always say there's such a fine line between conviction and stupidity. And you got to make sure you walk it, right? Because conviction in a trade means, hey, maybe it's not going well yet, or maybe I'm wrong short term, or, you know, there's a lot of pressure, but I still think this is going to work. And you have to be very certain that you're not falling into biases, right? That you're looking for confirmation of information that just, you know, you're looking at everything deeply, you're stress testing it, you're looking at different sources, you're asking yourself, am I right? And if you have conviction, often it's best just to grin and bear it, because if it's short-term and we're in a taxable account, then I don't really think it does you anything to liquidate. That doesn't mean we're not active. We've been harvesting losses everywhere this year. Absolutely.”

    2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. “And I would argue the investor that does that usually is doing it poorly. So no, we typically are moving gradually or in shifts. So we'll have different kind of a waterfall or a layer cake necessarily. We have to have some liquidity and maybe we'll have some T-bills and then some munis and then our large cap growth or value. And then there's things like we started shifting out a large growth in 21. So we were more in value. And if there's something material that happens, sure, I can take your whole value allocation and move it over just like that. That's not a problem. But we also have to be kind of cognizant of what the effect is. If it's a short-term pullback and I'm going to cause you a million or two in capital gains, is it really worth it? You know, you got to really think through, okay, is this a fundamental shift or is this just some noise and it's going to be ugly for a little bit and you're going to want to throw up every time you read your statement? But at the end of the day, you're better off just grid and bearing it because why do I want to necessarily”

    2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  15. “Yes, so people trust their savings with you and you really have to make sure that they make good decisions. So it's not, you're not just sort of expressing a macro view. It's not just, oh my God, I love Apple and I don't like Amazon. Or I think the Fed is going to hike and we're going to get into that. Or I think the price of oil is going to go to 300 or negative. actually people you're managing people's wealth over time. Can you talk a little bit about what it's like if you have a macro view or if you want to get a little bit more aggressive into stocks or a little bit less aggressive out of stocks? How do you, you don't just make a pivot, you know, perhaps a retail investor, they can go 100% S&P 500 to negative 100 S&P 500 in a day. But you can't just do that, right? You got to be responsible.”

    2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  16. “Sure. So we're Ultra High Net Worth Private Wealth Boutique Firm. We work with individuals typically with 10 million plus. We do portfolio management. Some family office services and making sure that their lives are just a little bit easier. So a lot of times we're not hedge fund. We're trying to sustain wealth, build wealth, generational wealth. And then generally make sure that they can meet their goals and objectives. So if they have $25 million, that means you can't necessarily spend $3 million a year, which sometimes is not a fun conversation to have with people. You know, it's amazing that people can have the burn rate. And then really we focus on good, smart portfolio management. So how do we make you money in the long term? How do we avoid bad decisions? How are we tax efficient? And really our goal is to maximize as much as possible the net after tax return to the client. So that means if I'm turning and burning and realizing a bunch of”

    2022-07-04 · Forward Guidance · Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT