YouSaid · the spoken record

Vincent Daniel

lines on the record: 157
first: 2022-02-06
most recent: 2022-02-06
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Like a lot of names like that, where if you have a good, a good handle on the underlying commodity or underlying anything, you gotta good thesis there. You say that's a persistent theme is seeking out things that are underappreciated. Like in cannabis.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Everybody, everybody, everybody again go back to how we think about things. And I really love the thought process of the capital cycle, right? Where is all the money going? All the money is going to tech, not only in the investors, but CapEx is tech, everything is tech. And where aren't they investing? And obviously it's energy. And so when all the money floods in, returns go down, when the money floods out, returns go up. And so we kind of like that dynamic where returns are going up. No one owns it. And, you know, a fixed expense base with a variable revenue base that, you know, that you get max leverage, like only a gold miner, right? Expenses stay the same fixed price. And then gold price go up to 2,000 and you make a lot of money. And so we...”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, if you ever had an environment where somehow, some way, energy prices went up and somehow some way, these companies gained discipline to make sure that they didn't continue to drill, you had this massive opportunity set and these names. And that was the theme and the thesis associated with our energy names. And it's not just Wellington.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“ExxonMobil, and ExxonMobil was like number 75, right? Meaning it was the 75th largest holding. So there were 75 other names before ExxonMobil owned by, say, a Wellington or a Newberger.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We did Wellington, we did T row, we did Newberger, so we looked at what's their number, their highest energy holding of their list.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that was a function of when I think about it is when we started studying ESG, our typical contrarian heads went to, well, what they're starving this sector. And it's a combination of ESG and also the fracking, boom, and bust of the 2012 to 2015 era. And we realized like, wow. We need this fuel. We need oil. We need gas. We need coal. And they're not spending any CapEx on the market whatsoever. So when you think about it that way and you looked at where the stocks were, and also in addition to that from the capital markets perspective, you couldn't find a major institutional holder any of these large oil and gas names. Remember we did the exercise where we were going through the holders list of all of the major players. You named the major investors that are out there and say, okay, spot the first energy name. And you had to go”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“These companies have been able to prepare their balance sheets. And again, like Peabody Coal is basically locked out of the financing market, right? The ESG people will never, the banks will never give them capital. And so when you're forced into a hole like that, you have to, a lot of financial discipline on the companies. And paying down debt. And we sort of, so that's how we got into it. Nuclear is kind of a gateway drug. Gateway drug. Same thing with the energy thesis. The energy thesis we got into during COVID because we were looking at propane prices. We're like, oh, people are going to use propane. And so we got into our resources, one of the bigger propane players in the country. And then we fumble our way into, you know, kept on buying ungodly amounts of energy stocks. Yeah.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“goes back to how we like to invest and how we think about investing. We do a lot of thematic investings. We come up with a thesis and go test it out. And the nice thing about two of us, we can call bullshit on each other like part of it's not really working. On the nuclear idea is that we went down and where's all this power coming from? And then so that we got actually got into coal, sort of the back doorway. Of trying to look at how the grid's powered. We look at all these coal stocks and they've been crushed by ESG and we're like, wow, these stocks are really stinking cheap. And so, you know, we own coal stocks and they are stinking cheap. And maybe they'll just stay this way for a long time. But, you know, the thing is with high coal prices like this.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Would say the evidence and more of a fundamental basis as to why to do it is that regardless of what Europe thinks about nuclear, and that's changing, regardless of what the United States thinks about nuclear, and that's changing both to the positive, Europe will see. China is adopting this. And it was that catalyst and the fact that they were building, think to the tune of 30 to 50 nuclear plants over the next 10 years that told us that whether people like it or not, nuclear is going to be a major player over the next 10 years when it comes to energy and particularly clean energy. And that was, and this is a true investment where quite frankly, it's very volatile, but we have not sold anything associated. If anything, we add on dips because it's hard to believe that this is not going to be. And the risks are sadly obvious. I'd rather not even get into it. Anyone could...”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's just impossible. Look, sadly, Germany learned that you can't necessarily rely on wind alone if you have a bandwidth wind season, you're going to have some serious energy issues if you're solely, not solely, but predominantly relying on wind. Nuclear is one of the great baseline powers that emits and produces clean energy. And that was part of the religion that I've slowly, sadly, or I've developed that this is one of the alternatives and I'm a big believer in energy that there's not one category killer is that we need all of this to work together and probably have redundancies in order to make this all work. So if that's the case, then you start to really truly believe in nuclear as an option and should be an option. What gave us the...”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Have two conflicting thoughts in my head when it came to funny. I strive and I think Porta strives. We strive very hard not to be hypocrites, right? I'll get to what I'm trying to get at with that. In addition to that, you try not to develop a religion about anything, particularly in investing you can't do so. However. You truly believe in the academic merits of ESG, which is clean energy. You start doing a little bit of math, and I can't say we've done all the math. You can't get there without nuclear being evolved.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And how were you going to power the grid? Like our friend Rohan came into town and he goes, you wouldn't believe how many two-wheelers, motorbikes call them two-wheelers over there are all electric in India. And I go, well, yeah, the dirty little secret is it's all powered by coal plants. And so our thought process was that the only way you're going to, you know, We can be short, our Tesla. On the other hand, the nuclear power was going to power the grid that supplied all these EVs.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The other thing we did is a friend of ours because we don't have the patience nor time to do this, but he invested in the fixed income side and the debt instruments of these companies. And it's a fantastic business. I mean, huge yields. Again, another example of a pretty big motif, your business niche. And our advice to him is just to keep milking it as long as it lasts. The arbit will close eventually, but it's pretty big ARP at this point.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“One of the names that we have is rolling up various retail establishments as well as having their own brand, and they happen to be on more of the premium side. So the vertically integrated is appealing to us. But again, it is extremely early. The one thing we do want, because we don't know the extent of the timing of when the big bang catalyst is going to happen is we want someone with superior balance sheets because you want to make sure they make it through.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think you're still just in the very, very, very early innings of what's going to happen. And, you know, yes, you want to sell the picks and shovels, but there's money to make all of the food chain, you know, whether it's one of our companies we've been buying is Scott's Miracle Grow. And we always have a tendency to like quirky and weird management teams. And they, as Scott's Miracle Grow, has pivoted to the hydroponics business as well as a tack on. We have that. And then we have companies that touch the plant as well.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, it is. It's horrible. But the last thing you want to do is provide them additional revenue streams. Not only that, I always felt like exercise bikes of any kind as a fad. So why in the world am I going to lock up to an annuity stream? But I tend to be more in the fruitable cheap side, sadly.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I think I actually was thinking about it today. It's weird how. Investors react to when people had a view at a time. You know, there's a saying that you never get fired for being bullish when everyone else is bullish even if it goes down, but you do get fired for being bearish when everyone else is bullish and it goes up. I was thinking that in March 2020, there were some hyper bulls and hyper bears. The hyper bulls obviously were right, but it seems like people still have way more respect for the hyper bears, even though they're wrong than the hyper bulls.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When you're bearish and you're short and you lose money when the market goes down because your lungs go down more than your shorts. You know, people were just like, you know, oh, what are we going to? And so that was a dark moment for Vinny and I.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“100 baggers. Those are probably long gone right now, but fair. But if we were running institutional capital, their tolerance for pain of an investment, and it's not big for us yet, but at some point it probably will be. Their tolerance of pain for something that might not work two or three months is extremely low. And so one of the things I think about as you ask the question is I would never want to give up our duration because we think that's the real outfit creation, one of the big alpha creators for us and see what.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We don't know when federal legislation is going to pass for cannabis. It could be this year. It could be next year. We're hoping it's this year. But we don't know. And so when people ask me, what's the catalyst and when is it going to work? The answer is I sadly do not know. But what I do know is that I think it's highly probable that it will pass because it seems like both sides of the aisle seem to pass it. And when it does, this could be one of those investments that give 3 to 5x type returns on your investment. And that's the stuff we like to be involved in.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The only thing I'll add which adds to the element of cannabis and probably uranium in a lot of our trades as well, investments as well, is this concept of duration. So in this second generation of SeaWolf, right now it's just our money. So our duration is infinite. And to us, duration is one of the most vital Factors that is required for people like us. To make outsized returns.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We make reasonable assumptions and put in great risk reward trades. And that's what we do all day long. And so we think this is at this point a washed out, good risk-reward trade that even if they don't get the safe bill passed, I think that the growth will kind of carry us and they're very, they're sort of garpy names at this point, growth at reasonable price. And so that's sort of the thought process there.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Roadmap. And one of the reasons that you can't really invest in cannabis stocks is obviously illegal at this point. They're completely shut out of the banking system. They can't list in the US. And so you got, I mean, the list is long of why you can't own these stocks. Our thought process is that The safe banking bill passes, it'll be a just massive catalyst to unlock a lot of the value and allow people to see what is a great little growth industry. And the cost of capital is going to come down. Tax rates will come down. The ability to be in indices will go up. It's sort of like three or four simple catalysts that allow massive rerates. And so, I mean, also a lot of stuff we do, you know, Vin and I are the smartest guys out there. We use our common sense. And, you know, people come up with fancy DCF models. We don't do that.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We got into it a couple years ago through Danny. Danny really, you know, after he retired from the hedge fund business, got into it with a friend of his, and they were in private equity, and so we invested in that private equity. And we like the thesis and just sort of watched sort of from the cheap seats. And then we started watching these stocks get demolished last year. The funny thing about growth bros rail on value investors said we only like to buy stupid companies with cheap valuations like that. We just like a gross, we've always said we prefer to buy a growth stock at the right valuation. And so you look at there's not many really growth industries besides software in this country. There are a couple, but cannabis is one of them. And it's going to happen so piecemeal that you're going to have a nice...”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, look how we invest, right? Contrarian. I mean, we sort of become more contrarian as we gotten older. But the big short was a contrarian trade. A lot of stuff where we like to buy really mispriced assets and one off and we've never owned anything that looks like an index, never really shorted anything that looks like an index. I mean, And we won off all the time. The cannabis is interesting.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But that gets back to the whole idea of Pelotong going to, let's say, the hundred specs that were out there, 95 are probably... But there were probably five gems. And we don't have the time, but what we'd love to do is outsource some of the ideas that we have to specialists who do have the time, who make it their focus, and hopefully finding those gems first, and then we could sort of not only just invest with him, but also tack on to them within our seawolf portfolio as well.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, funny, we invested with a friend of ours that we worked with a long time ago who just specializes in SPACs. And that's our thought process is that he'll be able to wade through this mess of the SPAC market and find a couple gems. And so that was our thought process, and I'm still early in that game. We just invested into the year.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So after 2008, the CDO machine, the securitization, that whole environment was a tiny fraction of what it was. It really became something like a hinterland of finance. Do you think now that we've had a huge crash in SPACs where SPACs that we're trading at $10, and then they went up to $25 are now trading at two? Do you think that that environment of there just won't be far fewer deals as there were in 2020, 2021? Or do you think that hope springs eternal?”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think you had that with Bill Ackman had a spec where I actually he wanted to buy very good companies, forget one of them, but the other one was Bloomberg. But a successful spec is for a promoter, for someone who has a SPAC is one that does a deal quickly. And the quality doesn't matter. His standards are way too high. So I don't think they've made a deal yet.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Us when we were going through it and just speaking to bankers Just sitting there and you're like, I can't live with myself doing this. This is just not who we are. You can't get us in front of people marketing and I can't bullshit to people. It just wouldn't work”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Again, the specs really. The banker has got a whole of the SPAC market and they went wild. When you were buying a, if you were buying a 10 bucks, you were paying overpaying on a PE basis a takeout. You were paying full valuation for these companies. It just, it made no sense. We actually went down the road of maybe trying to do a spec and we looked at each other and said, this is all BS.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Conversely, named like Snowflake, or think of an Amazon or Microsoft reported last night, I'm not saying Microsoft is super high multiple, but these companies who are extremely profitable with high margins, they'll be okay, the stocks might go down a lot, but they'll be fine, assuming their business, their underlying business models are fine. I would not want to be in the camp right now of a nonprofit company or a nonprofitable company about tech. A nonprofitable company that is reliant on three to four or five equity raises to achieve their TAM potential”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's the nonprofitable entities Right now, or what we had up until a few months ago was zero cost of equity capital for these companies. They had the ability to lose money and they had a mandate to lose money. And investors gave them the benefit of the doubt, hoping that their TAMs would be achieved by 2035. What we've seen is that that rug has been pulled out underneath them. And so all of a sudden, I hate to say we mentioned it a few times, Peloton has been the modern day poster child, that once the rug is pulled out and you actually have to start making money because you have a massive cash burn and investors aren't going to give you money again, and all of a sudden you have to alter your entire operations. You sadly have to fire personnel and employees, and there goes your growth.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What do you think is the companies that are really failing now falling over are unprofitable technology, unprofitable high growth, high multiple, high-priced sales? What do you think is a bigger factor? What do you think is the worst factor to have being ridiculously overpriced in terms of price of sales, but profitable? I might propose a snowflake or something that on a price of sales multiple isn't at 100, but it's just not that profitable in business.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeti, or there's a lot of beyond meat, or there's Peloton, I guess you can, it's not really a tech stock equipment manufacturer with an attached potential annuity stream. Yeah, and take it even a little step further. The annuity, low growth thinking McDonald's proctor gamble, just the low rate of interest allowed people to elevate the multiples of these names and treat them more like long-duration bonds. That's the scary to a certain extent some of these companies are trading at similar multiples to Google, which is insane to me.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are there other companies that aren't a tech stock? They're not a platform stock, but they have multiples or they had multiples like one. I'm thinking of, you know, I have some oat milk this morning, oatly, that one, or all birds. I don't know. Maybe I love all birds, but it's trading, you know, it's a stock that's trading as if it's like a tech stock.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, that was part of the unlock. The stock was just way too overvalued. And for a company that basically was bailed out twice during COVID, the investor had to inject money in because they basically would have failed. Bear Stern style. And so people have very short memories. It's amazing.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and so the whole thing's a game. And so, you know, I think as you get older and see how, understand how the game works, we're able to last year really pick apart when the unlocks were starting to come. And one of our favorite was Robin Hood last year. That was fun where we were like, this thing is going to fall. And we didn't sort of anticipate this big of a retail crash and...”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It goes back to this is bringing up old anger. I don't know why I do this myself. But the. We eclipsed the IPO market of 2000 last year, right? I think the regular IPOs eclipsed it and then you had Tack on the SPACs. It was right there. It always goes back to follow the money. And the investment bankers are always looking for a deal. And in 2006, it was the CDO machine. They fed it like crazy and they were making tons of money. And this year it was the equity capital markets and debt capital markets. These guys made a ton of money. And when they do these IPOs, they don't just IPO the company, they game it, right? They only list like 5% of the company and then they shoot these things to create.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What seems so warped is like bank balance sheets, which is sovereign debt. Living in 99 and 2000, it feels more like that that I think the equity and the derivatives of the tech bubble that we have created is going to unwind, which didn't bring down the entire system. So if we think about what we expect next, assuming the Fed remains hawkish, and we do believe that will happen. The next shoot a drop is VC private capital, right? Where those marks are still significantly elevated. And I don't know how they can remain elevated when the one bastion of price discovery they have or they're out, so to speak, which is public markets, has dropped 50, 40, 50, 60 percent. There's no way these private companies are worth what they're worth if the public mark is significantly low.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I personally think it is. I do. It feels that way. Yeah. It definitely feels that way. And so, you know, getting back to this question you asked, I think earlier before when I was talking about my biggest.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So is that environment where credit spreads aren't really moving, but you're having a huge compression in high multiple tech stocks, does that make you think that 2000, 99, is a better analog than 2008 now?”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, except at the bottom, no one likes a bear. Nobody. No, except at the bottom, they'll actually start watching the big short again. And then you'll see it come out on HBO or Showtime. That probably will mark the bottom.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not just to destroy the wealth effect, to destroy the flow of money that is floating through the system, right? Because when that starts to happen, then all of a sudden, if the credit markets aren't working, then we really have a problem. And the Fed knows it. And then they're going to have to act. Right now, the credit markets are behaving. And I think they're behaving because While I would have believed that the growth bros had the The Fed put, and I believe they do, the real Fed put. Now, I personally would like to see a little price discovery and everything. But my view is, I think in reality, if we're thinking about how we're going to apply our portfolio, I'm of the belief that if they do widen the Fed's going to have to change their”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Even after Well, the interesting thing about the current market right now is that despite the calamity that has been happening in equity markets, fixed income markets haven't really, particularly credit markets haven't really moved all that much, which Think it is interesting in the fact that to get a true meltdown or said differently, to truly get the Fed off the hawkish pivot that they made, you're going to need credit markets to go south for credit spreads to widen. Still doing QE.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm not saying whether buying micro strategy or Bitcoin was good or a bad idea, but what I am asserting is that it was a much better idea than buying the convertible debt of, because you had very low upside, right? And tons of downside.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Going towards zero at this point That's our problem with the economy. There's just so much debt. There's just not a lot of growth to it. At some point, the rubber. Hit the road in terms of What are we going to do? And so I just think we're probably closer to that moment here. And so, I mean, I'm sort of. More bearish by the second. I should probably, you know.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Rates are manipulated by the Fed and by just general central banks. So And I think rates can't really People know that There's nothing without the Goal in monetary stimulus is just not that much growth to the economy, and the Fed sort of said that with their RSTAR.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, actually, what I'm suggesting is if it wasn't for quantitative easing, the Fed wouldn't have spent the money that they did. They wouldn't be able to, the government wouldn't be able to spend the money that they did. Or if they did decide to spend the money that they did, rates would be significantly higher because investors who require a rate of return would need a higher rate than what the Federal Reserve needed, which is effectively zero.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When you say that the Federal Reserve enabled the government to spend, government spends via the treasuries, it issues bonds, the Federal Reserve buys bonds not from the Treasury itself, but from big banks who could buy that auction from the Treasury. So if you connect the dots, debt monetization, that could be alleged. When you say that it helped it, though, are you saying that if quantitative easing bond yield would rise because the government was just spending handle for fist?”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT