YouSaid · the spoken record

Vincent Daniel

lines on the record: 157
first: 2022-02-06
most recent: 2022-02-06
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Was fun. Yes. Oh, it was stressful. Very. So the way we think about keeping it simple, the way we think about financial services, and there's really KPIs, key performance indicators. One is net interest margins, as you mentioned, the other was credit. In early 2009, or credit quality, in early 2009, you were at peak charge-offs for the financial services system.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But we were sitting there in February We were sitting there in late February buying stocks. We were buying banks. I remember we'd try to go the highest quality banks we could find. We were buying them. And they were going down like 10, 12, 15% a day at that point because people at that point just, you know, they were maybe they tried to buy, I figured out how it worked, but they were trying to buy the dip. And then it just went puke. They puked everything. You know, the Fed came in and gave Goldman and all these guys money and sort of stabilized the system. No nine was a very good year for us. We were 40% or something like that.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I think that I don't go crazy about QE1 because, you know, if you read the book or seen the movie, there's a point where we're sitting on St. Patrick's Cathedral steps and we really don't, I hate people that go. I think market's going to crash. That was the one time where we all thought the market was going to crash because the banking system was just completely insolvent and everything was just broken. And we were legitimately scared that like we weren't, the market wasn't going to open. Banks weren't going to open. And so... And so from that point on, like the Fed was like, oh, this has never happened again. And they've had the spigots on ever since.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think the Fed rightly or wrongly, and we think wrongly, but others can think otherwise, price discovery to the downside is not going to be allowed no matter what. And so for the last 12, 13 years, I think one of the primary roles of the Fed was to suppress any form of price discovery to the downside. And that's very difficult for us, right? Every time when we felt like we were about to kick the football, Lucy would pull it away. And it wasn't that we wanted to be bearish. It's just that there were circumstances that presented themselves that we should have been bearish. But you come to learn that the Fed was not going to allow you to act and invest the way you wanted to.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I can answer it just going a little further back. I came to work on Wall Street in 1996, first on the sell side, and then eventually came to work with Steve Eisman, Port Collins, Brad Burning, Danny Moses. That was our first foray onto the buy side. And throughout our career, I'll speak my career. The concept of price discovery has eroded, right? So there used to be price discovery in markets, but slowly but surely the Fed has prohibited any material deviations in price discovery to the downside. So when I think about Porter's comment that he had to in terms of we were the last to fight the Fed and win, we were truly the last to be allowed to experience price discovery on the short side, right? After the great housing crisis.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, when 08 hit, you know, we were really on point. We knew what was going on. We saw in the data. We knew where all the bonds were hiding and we were really ahead of things. And we knew the Fed was behind the curve. And they really missed it. And so, you know, so when they did QE1 and then QE2, we were sort of laughing like these guys don't know what they're doing. And then QE three and four and five. It just kept coming. And so, you know, obviously we don't have a ton of respect for them. You have to, but that probably hurt us, it definitely hurt us last cycle. I mean, we didn't believe in all the sort of run-up and tech valuations and all that kind of stuff. And so we sort of, we missed out. I mean, poorly, we just didn't, we didn't profit like, you know, we're not Chase Coleman.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, you know, a lot of investing is where you came from, how you grew up, how you were taught. And, you know, we grew up and we lived through, if any lived through the subprime auto crisis, I wasn't quite in the business yet then. And then in the dot-com crash and then the 08 crash. And so we obviously have a bearish tilt to us because we've seen, and we cover financials. And so you see rolling credit cycles all the time. And if you do on a global basis, you see Japan blow up. Wherever there's growth, eventually it dies and stuff blows up. And so having lived through different cycles. I think we have that bias.”
2022-02-06 · Forward Guidance · The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT