YouSaid · the spoken record

Vincent Delaurd

lines on the record: 59
first: 2026-02-11
most recent: 2026-02-11
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“So, the best place is X. My hand out is at Vincent Deliard D E L U R D. You can also find me on LinkedIn, Vincent Derard. Please send me a DM me. You may even, I mean, I'm going to get my stone accommodation at Vincent.com. That's probably the best way. Now, the research is institutional, but I'm always happy to have conversation with smart people, share some of the reports I write every week. And yeah, I'm excited. This is both scary and exciting time for global macro. And I think this is going to be another year where we'll have a lot to talk about in 10 months when we speak again.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But, you know, what's the proper multiple on it? I mean, there is no earnings, there's no cash flow. So it can keep going higher.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Once the crisis was going off, once we've reset prices correctly, I mean, we have, we do have these global imbalances like that. Yeah, the Chinese currency is too cheap and that's making life in the rest of the world very difficult. It's destroying European industry. It's causing this massive deficit in the US. So we need some sort of a global settlement where we agree on how we're going to do things going forward. I hope that will happen probably in the mid-2030s. But in the meantime until we have a proper efficient monetary system and then you'll have these imperfect substitutes. And I think they belong in investors' portfolio. And it's impossible to say, you know, is it overvalued? Is it undervalued? Yes. I mean, I look at chart of gold. I'm worried.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Pick your poison, right? I mean, gold, I tend to have a preference for gold, but obviously silver, platinum, copper has been participating a lot lately, cryptocurrency could be extremely interesting once we kind of walk through this volatility, four-year cycle. Fears, but yeah, it would make sense. Again, I hope both crypto and precious metal, I think, are transition solutions. They're not great. This is not an optimal solution. At some point, we should be able to figure out a better way to solve trade imbalances. I like the idea of this Mara Lago record. I mean, obviously, we're never able to put it together.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Nailed it like 100. It also made me realize how crappy, you know Like if the Bitcoin or gold bugs or silver bug people are right, what a crappy world this is going to be. This is really, I mean, I had to sell a 20% discount to the spot price to mail the thing. I'm still waiting to be paid. I hope we can have a better way to settle transactions and exchanging metals. Because it's not a very pleasant experience. Again, my idea was that I would never sell it, but. The price was so insane that I thought it was made sense. Now, long term. Everything that we talk about, I think, supports a large allocation to.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's been a good year But for what it's worth. Certainly in the case Silva exceeded my expectation. I remember buying physical silver almost 10 years ago at around 15 thinking I'd never sell it, right? This was something I thought I would give my kids. I actually ended up selling it. This probably was only one time in my life where I”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and then lastly, how does commodities and precious metals fit into that framework? Because when I hear your thoughts about this big. Economic reacceleration and that it's not showing up in the soft, noisy data, but it's showing up in cyclical commodities and precious metals have been ripping. Like there is a lot of validation in the price action going on right now. And I'm just curious, how do you take that?”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Cases we'll have invested for 20 years boosts growth. So you have this kind of self fulfilling virtuous cycle where currencies growth and asset returns all move in the same direction. Basically, that would be the exact opposite of the 15 year cycle of US hour performance we're coming from”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I think that was the phase one of that trade. I worry that, you know, with the Green Learn Insanity and Let's Take Over Canada stuff. Now we move to phase two where it's not just the currency that we hedge, but the European, Canadian, Australian, Latin American pension funds, I mean, many of them are clients are starting to look at the US as a source of risk. and start to de-risk the portfolio as we bring money back in Europe, in Japan. I mean, Japan, we certainly have yields at multi-generational highs, that really divorces itself, right? You bring the money back, then put upward pressure on the currency, means that yen return on the S&P 500 or the euro return on the S&P 500 are really negative. And then bringing this capital back, especially in Europe, where in many...”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, South America is a bit too much, but the society of the South America trade, right? When Trump did the tariffs. In April, and that has not happened at all. If you look at the Fed Z one, the flaws of France, you see that France actually bought 2 trillion. In U.S. stocks in the past year. What may have happened is that they started hedging the dollar. So this was kind of, oh, I hate the currency, but I love the stock because, yes, if you're in Europe, you don't have AI plays. And so there's no tech sector to speak of in Europe.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“BlackRock funds. I mean, it's just so unlike, you know, 80% equities and within this 80% equities, it's 80% US stocks in this US stock sleeve. It's 50% of it is in the Mac seven. So it just seems that there is a bigger world out there than just these seven stocks and the biggest risk to anybody's portfolio, I think, is always exposure. And one way to diversify it is to own if you had bought Chinese internet. Has done pretty well. Brazilian ore miners have done really well. Peruvian gold miners have done fantastically well. European banks have been amazing and I keep can keep going down the list. Like I think we have this tendency to really be obsessed with seven stocks when the world is much more interested. Now in terms of flows”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So I've been kind of an international Bull and not bear on US, but I recommended people allocate more to, I mean, Latin America was dramatically underrun for the past three years. It's starting to be better. Europe looks fantastic. Last year, we had a cheap euro. Falling inflation, government stimulus, some of these things are a bit less attractive today. But in general, yes, I would be I would maintain this overweight on international assets also because. General, I think Americans are dressed excessively overweight their domestic stocks. Like you look, your average target date from a portfolio or your vanguards or your...”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What does that do to the steady bid into US risk? Because you're talking about, okay, we're going to have this run at hot mentality for the U.S. economy in 2026. And equity should do well up until probably we see a rate hike. Up until then, you're probably, I imagine in the clear. That's kind of how I felt like the experience of 2022 taught us. But then you also have this dynamic of rest of world and how it's performing and whether there is that continued bid into US equities if we're not seeing as many dollars flow out to the rest of the world because of tariffs and what we're trying to do with the balance of payments. How do you think about those capital flows and whether to be exposed to the US or rest of the world?”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The other dynamic, of course, is what's going on with tariffs and how that affects balance of payments, and then therefore Capital allocation and the bid for U.S. assets. And I'm curious how getting a bit more tactically here on the market allocation.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In late 2025, energy was really the most hated asset. It reminded me of Meta in 2022 or Google in 2024, Chinese stocks. It's uninvestable. It's permanently broken, blah, blah, blah. And in reality, energy is not the best performing sector in the S&P 500. still, I would say still one of the few cheap assets in the US equivalent market.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We experienced it today that comes from the realization that the US does not have the industrial base to support its misery hegemony. That was the forcing bargain of globalization. It's like, well, it would open up, we all get richer, but as we do that, the US deindustrialized, which means that its ability to maintain that global order goes away and it needs to share this power. Now, whether that power sharing will happen peacefully or non-peacefully remains to be seen. But yeah, it is definitely part of the story and it was part of my call for energy.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think that they contribute to this multifaceted crisis, right? You had the technological change, you have the geopolitical change. Clearly, we see this post-World War II, post-Cold War architecture is blowing up. We see the US making major threats against NATO allies. You see, five years of war in Eurasia with very high death rates. So it's part of it, right? And, uh, Obviously, you see the US. I think a lot of what”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Also, at the end of the progressive era. So that's the missing link, if you will, of this beautiful deleveraging that we have not completed. And until we complete it, we will not get out of it. So if you ask me how it ends, it ends with a shift towards more distributive policies. Now, whether that's going to come from a left-leaning kind of Mondami type of government or nativist populist. JD Vance administration, I don't know, but that's where the boy is going.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“very active redistributive policies, basically higher tax rate on the top income, higher corporate income tax rates, and a shift in the way you share economic value added. I mean, we've seen in surge in share of profit and contraction share of wages, you need that to move the other direction to complete the beautiful derivating. So my idea, if we think this is debt cycle idea is as a process, we at the beginning of the process, we are at, you know, shrinking our boosting G, then phase two, which I think would happen either after the midterms or more likely next electoral cycle, will be actual reduced review policies like what we had after the New Deal. And in the 50s, we had marginal income tax rate in north of 70% of the US, 90% in some countries in Europe. And we had very strong antitrust enforcement.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We're going to have the Fed rates and we're going to tilt leverage ratios to create demand for treasuries. We're going to force foreigners to buy. Rules on investment, fiscal stimulus, and so forth. Now, the problem with that is as you do this, as you shrink, suppress R and Boost G, while it goes up is asset prices. I mean, remember, again, I'm sticking with Finance 101 here. The value of a stock is equal to its future cash flow divided by the difference between the cost of equity factor R minus G. So if you increase that difference, multiples go through the roof and you get back to you kind of affordability issue inequality so you can't really get out of this by the beautiful diverging simply by kind of arbitraging this R minus G. What you need is what Radal writes about and I think what he fears is this”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“All we have to do He's basically run G nominal growth hot. And then suppress OR the cost of capital with financial repression. So the idea is we, you know, let me walk back a little bit on this debt cycle analysis is, you know, as you have peace and prosperity and economies expand, rich people get richer, poor people get somewhat poorer, and you reach kind of a breaking point, right? Because at the end of the day, the rich people make money on the poor people and the poor people are too poor. That's very simple. Simplified Marxist 101 for you, but that's the general idea. So you need somehow to kind of rebalance, write down the value of the debt, which is the asset of the rich people and the liability of the poor people. And Raidali has this concept of beautiful deleveraging, which I think is generally the policies that the Schromper administration is trying to achieve. And I'll give them credit for at least tackling the problem. I mean, okay, we're going to suppress R.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, generally I subscribe to the fourth earning debt cycle, Ray Dali O'Neil analysis. I would rebound on the idea that the beautiful data regime, which I think is a bit of a. A misnomer because if you read Radalio, he actually mentions all the elements. Wall Street love the idea of the beautiful data regime because it's kind of the free lunch, right? Oh.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah. How do you think this all resolves itself? Does it just keep getting worse until it gets so bad that it just has to improve? Or do you adopt some of the framings that savory Dalio has where he talks about there's a few ways out of this? It's either a deleveraging. It's going to grab all the money from the rich people and wealth distribution or maybe we get a beautiful deleveraging. Yeah, how do you think about how this all ends up?”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Trading trading down, like the Republican confidence has never mashed, like, I mean, Trump won, you know, looking back, there was kind of a economic golden age to some level, like his personal approval rating was never very high, around because of who he is, but the confidence in his ability to manage the economy was very strong throughout the term. We are now seeing that this time, even with Republicans and of course independence is kind of falling with all the Epsene revelations. So it's shades of gray, but I think this pattern of falling confidence is observed across the rich, the poor, the Republicans, the Democrats, the young and the old. At varying speeds”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We have a lower baseline and that's That's part of my thesis. I mean, what you say is true, you could also look at it in terms of people who own assets versus people who don't K-shaped, like sure, like wealthy folks are doing better than poor people, the old are doing better than the young, the Republicans are more optimistic than the Democrats. All of them”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I love that framing. And it's interesting because, you know, when you look at those consumer sentiment surveys, it's so political these days. You can see that during the Biden administration, it was the Republicans whose consumer sentiment was in the dumps and Democrats were happy. And now these days it's a complete opposite and Republican sentiment is up here medium. It's just like...”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Bubble and finding a nominal growth bubble. Again, these are conditions that we observed before every major revolution in history. Rapid technological change, acceleration of nominal growth, and at the same time a sense that things are unraveling and that contributes to this. Sense that the world is going to burn.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, arguably, you know, this is the best of time. I mean, it's almost kind of reminds me of the Dickens quote in the Tale of Two Cities. You know, it was a time of light, a time of darkness. It was a season of hope. It was a season of despair. And interestingly, what he's doing there is describing revolutionary France. And I think there's a nice parallel there. When we are about to experience revolutionary change, and I believe we are, we have this kind of technological revolution and we see the institutions crumble around us. You see both the light and the darkness at the same time. And that's, I think, the cognitive dissonance that's generated contributes. that we can feel in energy. So yes, three bubbles, stock market bubble, I think it's undeniable that at least part of stock markets are in bubbled kind of volatility that we see, the valuations that we see are extremely high pessimism.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah. I think A lot of the qualities of being a good macroalysis comes from being able to hold two contract two contractor contractory thoughts in your head at the same time and now be overwhelmed by the cognitive dissonance that comes from it and it's very uncomfortable right because the mind likes structure and coherent narrative and in reality the world is complex and every action creates a reaction so you can always spring to something that's moving in the wrong direction and this and that so that's uh where i'm going so i talked about this kind of nominal growth bubble uh at the same time we have a pessimism bubble if you look at sentiment surveys i mean we are at levels not seen since last covid if you ask people about the direction of the country or if you ask young young people about how they feel about the future if you ask people who want to buy a home um i mean not in recent time we've never seen um such pessimism”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of the economy, you have your government sector where I expect we already have five, six percent deficit to GDP and I expect more impulses we get the checkbook policy out, then the private sector is increasing the balance sheet. That's what you do when you invest. You grow the balance sheet. And your household selector savings are extoringly low. So all this to me point to an economy that's accelerating and possibly overeating.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So you're just going to have to, you know, dig holes in the ground, take beams of steel. And that was part of my case for energy, even old school energy, like not just not gas. I mean, the idea is that data centers will be powered eventually by renewable and nuclear. And then NATS is going to be the kind of the bridge energy. And again, these things are massive. They're not regular industrial structure where it's basically just an empty shed, right? You have these rows of servers, much more cooling, much higher wall-to-floor ratio. So the more energy intensive to build them. So yeah, obviously that contributes to the infacial boom of 2026. I mean, if we think about the main sectors.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think with technology, it's always about adoption more so than the technology itself. And we don't know what effects is going to have. So I would leave that in the. To be seen, Tamil type of category. Now, your second question was the impact of the CapEx boom and there we know, right? We don't know what the AI return will be in 15 years and whether the projection that these people make in terms of like GPU lifespan and how quickly they can monetize. But we know that, you know, when you build, I mean, some of these data centers are bigger than Manhattan.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That because it's politically expedient for him to use that. I mean, the bottom line is we don't know. The effect of AI on productivity. That's why I go back to this tax collection and this idea that all we know is income. Income is growing. Now is it inflation? Is it growth? Is it productivity? I don't know. What's our productivity right now? We could argue that it's very high, right? I mean, 10 years ago, we couldn't do this podcast, but we could argue also that the US economy really that much richer because of our conversation? Like, how do you measure productivity? I'm very skeptical of this. Again, all we can see at any given time is income. And what I know is nominal incomes are growing. That's why I keep talking about this nominal growth boom. I'm open to the possibility that there is indeed a productivity component. I mean, of course, like everybody, I use AI and I'm amazed by some of the things that it does. I'm also worried by many other things that it does.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sold supposedly saw the potential of the internet boom and kept price lower and offer great moderation in the 1990s. I think there's a lot of issues narrative. I think a lot of the great disinflation of 1990s had to do with China, had to do with high immigration, things that are globalization, things that we're not having today. It was not just people buying stuff or chatting on AOL chat rooms and buying stuff on eBay. But so I'm somewhat skeptical both of the narrative and its inclusion. I mean, for all his professional life, Kevin Warsh has defended a monetarist view of inflation, right? The famous government of Fairy, always an everywhere monetary phenomenon. So if you buy by this theory things like productivity or government deficits or should matter. So again, we see the same kind of comedian nature where he grabs some.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Let me first answer Wash and then on the economic impact of the CapEx boom. On Wash, yeah, that's basically talking point from the Trump administration asset would be on CNBC all the time making that same point. And again, I think Wars is kind of jumped on the bandwagon there. The growth story, oh, this is, you know, kind of a Greenspan fed, right? Greenspan.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Hopefully, somewhat contained, but the more time passes, the harder it will be to maintain the lie. And you can see the light crack. People know that inflation is not 2.5% or whatever it's going to be at the next release. So you really have to do it now before the lie becomes too obvious. So I think we'll get the cuts. And I think eventually. Yeah, I mean, it would be crazy To not have had the rates conversation with Donald Trump before he was appointed. I mean, that's the condition to get the job is Yule Cut rates.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and it makes activist reissuance, shifting to the format. What does he do as soon as he gets in? So that's why I'm not convinced that Kevin Wars is going to be the hawk that is rumored to be. I also think the window for rate cuts is quite low, quite short. It may be passing as we speak. Now we still have this kind of tailwind from the lagging rants in the mall. That means that CPI is going to be.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that was just not true. I mean, we have like two decades of QE in Europe, in the US and Japan that shows that it's non-inflationary. But what he figured out now is that he can change that. Well, is the Fed balance sheet, growing the Fed balance sheet is inflation rate and shrinking, it must be deflationary. And if I shrink the balance sheet, which we could argue for a moral reason, it's probably a good idea, then that gives me room to give rate cuts. So he kind of twisted his argument into something that would appeal to the new administration. Ferocious critic of Yelen for”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Intelligence, and then you organize a coup in Syria and you bomb Iran. And I could keep RFK for health and human services without. So it's a pattern of this administration to put people to do the exact opposite of what they said they were going to do before getting the job. It's kind of makes for great TV, as you would say, on the apprentice. And I think Kevin Warsh is a smart man. Obviously, he's a political agent. He's very creative with arguments and he's basically found a breach, right? So he for. 15 years now he Demonstrably false model of balance sheet policy. He was part of this, oh, QE is going to be inflationary, you know, there was this op-ed in the 2010s with very smart people on it, saying that, you know, Bern Bernanke was going to ruin the dollar and”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, well, part of my skepticism over the Fed meetings and dot plots and forward guidance comes from Kevin Warsh. He is amazing interviews, you know, where he just rips the fet apart. And he's good at it. I recommend people institute, like listen to Kevin Warsh because he's also funny and he speaks well. He writes well. His op-eds are pretty good and he hates them mad. Ultimately, I'm skeptical that I think Institutions frame leaders rather than leaders frame institution. That's a pattern we see in these administration is you get cash Patel to lead the FBI, right? So you get the Epstein file guy to cover up the Epstein files. You get Tulsi Gabbard at”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When momentum was slowing, but you're still making new highs, the leadership was shifting on the surface and then volatility was re-rising entire segments of the market blowing up. And that would fit nicely into this pattern where we see the market kind of grind higher on higher volatility until the summer. And then by the summer, we get the stimulus, we get the rate cuts. Not that we get great earnings, obviously, because earnings will benefit from this fishing bond, but there won't be that much new fuel to power the advance. And then we have to start countering the, I think, the High chance if the election is held under fair conditions that the Democrats win a landslide and then we have divided government and then we get that kind of shift towards populism on the left.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Bribe the banks into taking them. And the way you bribe banks is by allowing to take up more leverage. So we could have this kind of inflationary acceleration, which makes me quite bullish for now on stocks, although I think we are seeing signs of the market is churning that volatility is picking up. And that, I mean, the current conditions kind of remind me of late 1999, early 2000.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Bring that up, the relevance of that at all to you, yeah. You know, I mean, first of all, he's very smart, he's very charismatic, very good speaker, and then once in a while, it's like a Easter egg in video games. He'll drop something and in like QE for the people, like, what do you mean? Fed Treasury Accord, who knows, there may be something that we're not thinking of. But my general idea is that, yes, fiscal will have to be run extremely loose. The economy is already growing very fast. The Fed is going to cut to the extent that there is such thing as a neutral rate. I think it's higher than the current level of the Fed fund rate. So we are simulating. We have a banking deregulation, especially if we shrink the Fed balance sheet. We certainly need to put these treasuries somewhere else. So we have to basically.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The more time passes, the harder this becomes to unwind. In general, I don't think the Supreme Court will be wise for them to die in the Battle of Terries. I mean, there are so many constitutional battles to pick. So I think there'll be a little something, but by and large. The tariff money will be there and the political incentive to spend it will be very, very large. I mean, the closer we get to the midterm. The larger the risks really of impeachment, maybe criminal prosecution against both Trump and his family. So you really want to avoid that outcome and then we see plenty of these. Attempts, so it could be tariff dividend checks. We hear I forced myself to listen to pretty much every interview that Kevin Wars has given.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think most banks have come up with estimates for the tax reforms that are close to what I had six months ago, about $200 billion in additional tax refunds. I mean, it's huge. It's going to hit in a couple weeks. So even though we know about it, it's like, you know, you know the train is going to hit. I mean, it still hurts. I think there will be some immediate and you'll see that in services, in people eat at the restaurant, take the vacation. So that's the first hit. And then, yes, I expect more fiscal in the second half of the year. The tariff checks are kind of held up with the Supreme Court. My understanding is that it may not come until late March, that that verdict. But as soon as that's clear and my expectation is that”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It kind of brings me back to this idea that the US is kind of moving back towards a kind of emerging market. If you went to a less advanced economy, that's what you would use as an economist. And I think kind of makes sense given everything that's happening in the US to think of the US as a large emerging market.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So that's why, and also there is the issue that I think we're going to talk later about this weird kind of pessimism bubble, this vibe session, where people are actually doing good, but for whole different set of reasons, their reported happiness or their reported sentiment is much lower. All these issues are taken care of with tax collections, right? I mean, no one happily pays taxes has to be real income, it's cash, it's in real time. You just have to be aware of quirks in the data and changes in tax rates. But once you do that, I think you have a fantastic barometer of the economy. And again, this is something that, you know.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Based on the stock price, okay? And you try to predict the stock price of the stock price basically, or when you do the household survey, you know, you try to reach people on the phone. No one picks up the phone these days and you ask them, is somebody in your household working west work, what's not all these things have become blurry.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's going by 10% a year. So that's basically twice the economy of Brazil growing at China-like rates of growth. And I think that's the category that all these official statistics, you know, if you, I mean, what's the PMI? You send like 50 people, like, how do you feel today? You know, what they'll tell you, how do they feel?”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's really, to me, it's the greatest story ever told of American capitalism pretty much since the invention of the iPhone in 2007. And then you had all the development of the apps, you know, the Uber, the Dorash, the YouTube, the OnlyFans, the Instagram. That started to grow very rapidly. Then you had COVID when people work from home and suddenly realized, you know, if you work at the marketing department of a large firm, like, yeah, you probably have a couple hours a day that you could dedicate to something else in your primary job. So you have the technology, you have the incentive, you have the cost of living shock. So that really took off since 2020. And now we're looking at close to a trillion dollar in tax collection from that category. Now assume a 20% tax rate. That means that the underlying tax base is around 5%.”
2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT