YouSaid · the spoken record

Vincent Delaurd

lines on the record
59
first
2026-02-11
most recent
2026-02-11
sittings or episodes
1
sources
podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

  1. “One is capital gains. And of course, because we have an everything bubble, we have massive capital gains and every year more and more. And that's part of the story for 2026, by the way. People will pay the capital gains in their rear. So the treasury will get back to a lot of money that, in my opinion, could fund more spending. And then the other part is around 1 trillion from that 1.2 trillion bucket. And that's all income that you does not come from capital gains or your primary job. And that's what I see as a proxy for the gig economy.”

    2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “And it's reported daily. Now, of course, you have all sorts of quirks, right? People get paid around the first and the 15th. It's Monday, Friday effects, and things like that. So you kind of need to be careful with the date range when you look at this data. And that's why that 20% figure in January, I mean, it's probably excessive. I mean, now I have more data. It's more around like 12, 13%, but it's still remarkable. So that's one bucket. And when I think about it, I think about that with LDADA as a proxy for the, call that the formal economy people who have a job at a big corporation with benefits and 41K and so forth. And that's going fine. I mean, actually very rapidly. Now, the part that's even more interesting is this non-without individual income category, which is around 1.2 trillion a year in taxes. And that's basically two buckets.”

    2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “I mean, on a personal level, I was meant to work for the French Ministry of Finance and I. That's where my fascination with Stax is came because that's what the French Ministry of Finance does is heavy taxis population. That's your job. And I always thought like, okay, if you... Tax collection are the most natural measure of economic activity. I mean, especially that withheld employment income tax. I mean, for those who are not Americans, so when I get paid from Sonex every two weeks, there's about 25% of my paycheck that doesn't even go to my bank account and goes straight from Sonix to the Treasury. And that's to pay basically my taxes. And then when I pro 15 calm, we kind of adjust. But that number, assuming there is no change in the tax code is in the excellent proxy for how much income there is in the economy.”

    2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “Simplest solution to the 40-week crisis is we're not going to fix the healthcare system. We're not going to get government spending, send people checks is the easiest way. And again, because of that boom in tax correction, there's a lot more fiscal boom than people believe there is. I mean, it's not through fiscal virtue. Obviously, spending is very high, but because tax collections are so strong and tariffs in about $400 billion a month and nominal GDP is exploding, we actually have fiscal room for significant stimulus in 2026.”

    2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “And starting now, we're going to get massive refund checks. So the one beautiful bill is retroactive. So people overpay the taxes in 2025. So in the next four weeks, we're going to get about $200 billion in tax reform checks that are going to hit. And then most academic studies show that it's kind of like, you know, you win the lottery, right? When you have a windfall gain, you just spend it right away. That's the first part of the stimulus. And then after that, yeah, I'm a breatha that we have a very Difficult political equation for the administration. We have a lot of. Things coming up lately that make not just the administration, but a lot of people look pretty bad. And we badly need something to distract so that something could be a war which is quite expensive. But I would also think that something would be checks. I mean, obviously”

    2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “So, I go into 2026 with the same outlook with maybe one added worry is that this growth story might even get too hot. I don't think people realize how quickly the U.S. economy is growing in nominal terms. I'm not necessarily buying the view that we have this amazing productivity boom. All I can see now is nominal incomes are growing very rapidly. Tax collections so far this year, I buy more than 10% on personal income”

    2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. “The main way I check that is now with official data. I'm convinced that we have, we've always had structural issues with the establishment survey or the household survey. Now we not even able to get the data or if we do get the data and the data doesn't please the supreme leader, the data collectors get fired. So I think it's quite important to look at Things that actually tell the reality, which is tax corrections. And that's one of the reasons for my calls that we would not have a recession in 2022, in 2023, in 2024, 2015, and not 2026 because I could see tax collections where generally increasing between 5% and 10%. For last year, we were at about 8%. Now you can argue that there are some distributional issues. There may be some inflation, there may be some bracket creep, yada, yada, but it's still extremely strong nominal growth.”

    2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. “Yeah, I was only partially joking when I said not much has changed since 10 months ago. I mean, I feel like every episode I go to, I'm still fighting the same windmills, you know, like Don Quixote and the Cervantes movie. So the windmills are these imaginary recessions that seem to come back like reruns of the scream movie. And every time I tend to be skeptical on it. I generally maintain my kind of great reset idea that we have this higher growth, higher rate, higher productivity, higher inflation, higher deficits. And that until proven otherwise, this kind of growth scares are to be faded.”

    2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. “So, yes, three bubbles, stock market bubble. I think it's undeniable. A pessimism bubble, and finally, a nominal groove bubble. These are conditions that we observed before every major revolution in history. Rapid technological change, acceleration abdominal growth, and at the same time a sense that things are unraveling. I mean, the current conditions kind of remind me of late 1999, early 2000. So we could have this kind of inflationary acceleration, which makes me quite...”

    2026-02-11 · Forward Guidance · How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT