YouSaid · the spoken record

Willy Woo

lines on the record: 63
first: 2021-10-27
most recent: 2021-10-27
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Yeah, so I got a newsletter. You can just go to my Twitter profile. I think everyone knows it's WooNomic. It's linked there. So I do now it seems like one or two times a week I do on-chain structure and demand supply forecasting Bitcoins next few weeks to months ahead. So it's great if you're an investor and looking just to take some of the anxiety off with these wild moves. Yeah, so that's the newsletter I write. And yeah, that's pretty much all I run these days on something that people can actually action on. So just go to my Twitter profile and that's about it, really.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett, and how you did commentary over it. So such deep knowledge in these other value and business. Thank you so much. This is great stuff. So I'm still getting great value from this podcast. I'm super happy to be part of it now that it's inside crypto.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, thank you, Pristin. I really enjoyed this podcast even from before you were inside crypto. I'm still listening to the old episodes of We Study Billionaires. And I'm like, I listened to the one with...”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's going to be the qualitative thing. It's going to be Michael Saylor type analysis. You know that this is good. You look at using human intelligence, not just all these kind of Paul Kruger saying it's too volatile, this sort of stuff just doesn't fly. It's just the wrong way to look at this asset”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But even if we were to go to a quant world and be like a renaissance, I'm sure they don't use these crappy metrics. I ran the optimization algo on the fund and I did it on Sharp. And it was like it's rock solid return, very low return. And then like our fund manager did a qualitative pick based on knowing what was underneath these funds. And it just blew it out of proportion. Like it was like overperformed every time. The sharp optimized thing tried to get everything rock solid and not move. And then you run Sortino and it's a little bit better, but it still didn't beat the human thing, you know. So it needed a new type of risk metric, which And it's much better.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“How we understand risk is in traditional markets. And only crypto has gotten into these markets. And I'm saying to you, you've got these wild assets and you go, well, that's not going to work because it's upside volatility. That's not risk. That's just huge reward. And now let's try and get a better metric in what Wall Street's got is pretty crappy. So that's my takeaway this week. Running these metrics through algorithms and they're giving substandard results. And I think where there's room to improve these metrics. So I haven't been tweeting much because I've been deep in the rabbit hole of looking at this stuff. It's just, yeah, eye-openingly bad what we've got out there.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And this is like Sotino, it's much better if you're going to run a fund to track on Sortino. I just realized today, because I'm running optimization, our goes to the fund. And I'm like going, Sultino's crap as well. Because if you were to think about the downside risks and then you run a standard deviation, volatility calculation on the downside, it assumes it's going to be a normal curve, but it's not, right? It's going to be a normal curve around the high mean return. And we're just going to do a cutoff of anything that's negative and we're going to try and think that that's going to behave in a normal probability distribution. That's normal. It's not. So I'm just fabberglasted that these, all these metrics that the traditional world has been using, they're fundamentally broken.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So there's this thing called Sortino, right? Which is like, let's remove all the upside and every day it puts in a down day, let's take that as a sample point and look at the volatility of the downward sample.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Probably don't know. I'm the general partner in 3E hedge funds in crypto, and I'm an analyst, right? And it's really interesting to me because when we talk about risk, you know, like the standard metric for risk is sharp ratio, which is essentially your returns divided by the volatility of returns. And we run this thing called the volatility is using a standard deviation calculation. And I've just realized Sharps crack because it punishes upward volatility. If Bitcoin moons, the risk increases where it's, you know, you only really want to count downside risk.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so we need the holders of Bitcoin to be very decentralized. And part of that means every aspect of this network needs to be decentralized. Because if you get any single centralized choke point, then you can start to control that asset. And then any central point that gets big enough can push us into a new era of fiat. So yeah, ultimately it's a good initiative.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Decentralize where you can capture the energy. When you're very highly concentrated, you want to be park next to a hydroelectric dam and a nuclear power station. When you're wanting to small scale mine, you can be anywhere in the world whether good sunlight, where I'm next to a stream. And so the decentralizes that part of it. So yeah, it's ultimately good and pushing to get this network more and more decentralized because as you get this network more decentralized, we effectively create a monetary base that's similar to gold but without the flaws. Remember the floors on gold is that it's held in a very centralized manner and so a centralized gold leads to fear. We saw that in 1971 when we decoupled off gold because the guys that were meant to have gold didn't so they decoupled.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because of the shelf life of it, had we. Now we're getting to these nanometer sort of scale ships that are down near to the frontier of what we can produce. And so the shelf life of these new AZX are longer and that's what you want because the longer the shelf life of this hardware before it goes obsolete, the more retail can come in because retail is not efficient. There's not many people I know as a retailer that can fly to the manufacturer and then bring it back in person like a highly centralized mining facility can do. So I think more and more development into hardware like this will push these cycles out further and that's going to help more retailers come into the mining and then that's going to also decentralize the network and it's also going to”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To how much does that network worth? And so that is always going to be the correlation. And if your hardware is more efficient, well, I need more of the hardware to burn the same amount of electricity. That's not the right way to look at it. I think the way you want to look at it is to extend the hardware cycle. It used to be, if you're mining Bitcoin a few years back, the shelf life hardware might be nine months before the next AZAC generation would come in and it would obsolete you. And so you had this huge waste issue, but more than that, you had mining operators that would fly and charter a 747, load up with miners, and then fly it to their location to save maybe 36 hours in transit because the shelf life on that hardware was ticking and it ended up being millions of dollars of loss revenue.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's fabulous. I mean, fundamentally the idea is to decentralize the mining network. And if you can get individuals that are mining it in their homes, that's maximum security in decentralization of this network. My comment to him was he talked about the kind of efficiency of the network. You want to be efficient on electricity, which is an easy track to get into because you don't need efficient hardware, but the incentives are going to push for more and more efficiency. But as you get these devices that become more and more efficient, well, it just means I need less dollars to run to produce the same hash rate. So, you know, the incentives just work out that the amount electricity that's going to protect the network is going to be a cost correlation to the price of Bitcoin. How much electricity is going to burn to protect the network?”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The first thing I do is I move it into this new speed of light finance where I can move dollars across a blockchain in seconds and not get blocked and get yields of 17% every second that it's being parked. It's just worlds different and the risks aren't anymore if we're talking US dollars. We're talking US dollars the alternative is the risk of your money being in the bank. So I think that's a different proposition.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They've got bail-in clauses over 100 grand. Do you think over 100 grand they can take? And I can't move it. Moving any kind of significant funds in a bank gets blocks. So the first thing I want to do when I get cash in the bank is get it out of the bank. And even though I want exposure to cash for just the sheer liquidity, a certain amount of safety net if the volatility of Bitcoin is down over a month, I'll move it into exchange. I'll move into exchange and I'll lend it out 70% and then I can move it in US stablecoins like USDC to fund investments. Like most of the investments that I'm doing now, I'll take USDC, even an exchange that I'm working with, they take USDC and even Angelist if you're doing Angel investments, they take USDC now. So like it's like the traditional side of divide, the banking divide is like quicksand for my money to be stuck.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Lending that out 17, and that's a different proposition because what am I doing right now is it would be in a cash account with a bank who I trust even less because the banks are the ones that I think are going to go out of business, not the new finance.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'd make a nuanced point. When we're talking 17% today on lendout rates, there's nuance, right? The lendout rate on Bitcoin today is 3%, and usually it's 0.8%. I'm not talking about putting your Bitcoin on exchange as lending out. I'm talking about putting your US dollars on exchanges.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“decades old where banks are getting so greedy they're squeezing out every last dollar and they don't know where to get the next dollar from but from taking huge risks we're not on that stage in crypto”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, right. And currently we're talking specifically on these kinds of lines of credit for kind of cash and carry type trades is very low risk. And if they have to blow up the assets that are off the books, they've got to blow up their trades. And then that's got to be big enough to blow up the exchange. So I think the risks involved with that in the current state of crypto, it's very young, it's very early. It's not like very early.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Delta neutral trades, what we call the relatively low risk unless they break the algos break or something like that. But generally, if you look at like a 36 month history of these funds, they don't put in a down month. If they do put them down month, it's just like you're relatively small because they shut down their algos. So that risk is actually low. They're not doing the same ridiculous trades that we're seeing, you know, the banking institutions did in 2008 and before that they were taking very large risks. In fact, they bought up trading firms that were very good at taking large risks. Goldman Sachs was the first and then everyone else copied them. And so I actually spoke to the guy that was acquired into Goldman Sachs that did this high risk trading. And they understood risk very well. The problem was these other banks said, whoa, that's like more than half the profit of gold.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“getting lines of credit based on some amount of trust and some assets in their books that may not be priced properly. If they turned out to be toxic, then they cannot cover their losses if they make a loss first. If they make a loss and they cannot cover their losses and that line of credit, then the exchange is up for it. And then the risk to the retail person who's got money on exchanges lending their coins out is if the exchange hasn't got enough asset backing to cover the loss on the loan of credit, which they didn't take any collateral on. So there is certain things that need to happen. Like you need to blow out these institutions that are trading with lines of credit. They need to have toxic assets. They need to also trade very badly. Now, we're talking about cash and carry trades. We're talking about”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Them to increase their yields, most of these exchanges aren't doing fixed yield, they are providing lending markets, and then there's, again, like people and institutions that are running arbitrage from Cantango to spot loaning. You run that arbitrage funding trade, and then you get this loosely coupled, the futures contango impacts the lending. But to your point, it's really, so effectively this is the domino of House of Cards if it plays out, is the funds, the institutions that have”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, let me have a look today. I think it's squeaking out 17% yield as of today. It just jumped again the last two days with this huge run-up.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think that majority of them actually, I'm involved with hedge funds and sometimes you can get a line of credit, you still have to collateralize, but it's very seldom. I mean, there's more and more of these hedge funds coming out now, and it's not like exchanges are going to give you that line of credit willy-nilly anymore. We are seeing things like loan providers that will lend you cash without collateral. And so that's kind of doing the same thing. To do that, you have to have very good reputation. You have to have been around for years and Sean, you've got a history of operating well. So maybe, but I don't think that's the majority of the market. Maybe we're seeing maybe 10, 20% under collateralization from these institutions.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, I see, I see, I see what you're saying, Mel. So it's really the over collateralization. So, you were bidding on this guy that's going to put in two Bitcoins to borrow, one Bitcoin. And then the hedge fund would then also match that with one Bitcoin. So you're actually getting three Bitcoins into a two that's being bought through that system. Right, interesting. I don't know. It's like we need to see this really play out. I don't think these lines are credits where you're under collateralize is, I don't think that's necessarily widespread. Do you have better information than me?”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Let's hear it. I can see what you're saying because there's a lot of long demand, there's a lot of speculative demand on Bitcoin and therefore you can like, you know, it draws in the cash and carry hedge funds that come in to have to buy the underlying to be able to extract the yield.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and I think if we'd moved back to the ETF, the futures-based ETF conversation, I do think that, you know, like Kristen, you were talking about this whole cash and carry trade and that being as big black hole engine that sucks in more and more capital. I can see that. And it's interesting because you want to push back.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I think you eventually do incentivize for that. But I think at a certain point, you can't because you don't have enough monetary base to buy it in because as Bitcoin's value is going up, it's capturing more of the monetary base. Like we're at 1 trillion and let's say Fiat's monetary base is 100 trillion. It's 1%. So at a certain point, you don't have enough fiat monetary base to buy the Bitcoin. So you just can't capture all of it. You run into systemic maxims when you start to look at, you build a big box around the whole system. You go, well, that's our system. There's the cash. There's a Bitcoin.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You can capture all the Bitcoins on exchanges, but you can't capture all the Bitcoins. It comes back to physics, right? Yeah.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You might take the paper contract temporarily whilst you Fill your spot position, right? So if I'm going to buy like a billion dollars of Bitcoin, I'm not going to dump it in the spot markets. I might buy 200 million on spot markets and I'll buy the rest on derivatives because I can deploy right now. And then the price is going to run up, but I'm fine because I've locked in my price in that one hit. So I'm getting a cash settled profit. I take the cash seal profit. I pull it over to Binance, FTX, some of the offshore exchanges which physically trade. You can even do it on Coinbase, right? You just buy it on Coinbase using your cash profits for a proxy you can physically settle. And that's relatively easy to do. It's not the same as maybe the futures of gold where you get cash and now you've got to still find the supplier that's going to sell you that gold and they have huge spreads whereas the spread on spot”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think what you're saying is you can leverage or use the liquidity on futures exchange to effectively buy in. So it's maybe five times more liquid. So you can buy a position size six times what you could without moving the price as much. That's a positive. Obviously the one, the ETF The ETF isn't going to increase the derivatives dominance, the volumes on the derivative exchanges. That is on the CME, which is not physically settled. It is settled in cash. So if you wanted to buy in, you'd still need to like, wow, you do it in offshore exchanges, which are physically settled. I'm thinking.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“See this in the gold market where it's consistently being suppressed by the derivative markets. So even since as early as 2018 with BitMex being around, we could see the impact of these derivative markets. So it's kind of a net negative, I think, for Bitcoin”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It doesn't. It doesn't inflate the coin supply, but it's just interesting. So now imagine a sovereign nation state. So I want to deploy more. It's just an interesting metric.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's really interesting now because you've got this ETF, which is features-based. So in theory, you can buy more than 21 million Bitcoins. That's the starter. You can buy more than 21 million Bitcoins through ETF exposure. Of course, the underlying doesn't change. In a futures market, you can trade to infinity. As long as you can find someone on the other side that's going to sell you that paper contract.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, exponentially growing asset, but the greens signals are a good time to enter. Like if you're scared of In the green zone and hold, just I wouldn't trade it to sell high and buy a low using the red zones because that's not very reliable.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't know if it's something you want to use for price signaling. Like if you can just look at it right now and it said to sell at about 50,000 and now it just turned green today, which is 65,000 as I'm looking at the price right now. So I would have told you to sell low and buy high because you wait because it's a little bit laggy. But it's really telling me the structure of the market that we've been in re-accumulation in these strips. So I'm liking it as a sort of a big zoomed out structure of the market. And it's now we've got two small red strips, no more than a weight, not even close to a year each. And I think that's actually the sign of what's coming, these big four-year cycles are ending. So that's what I'm curious about. I wouldn't necessarily just use when it goes green, it's very safe to buy. I mean, I'd use it as a buy-in.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Six months We had that in 2013 in the double pump where it shot up and then it went sideways to reaccumulate so that that red strip is picking up the bearishness, but it was a reaccumulation phase. And so we had that in that kind of 2019 to 2020 era where Bitcoin chopped around and we had COVID. And it just went sideways for a very long time at around the 10,000 range. And then we had that just recently, which has just ended as of today, I think, where we pull back from our 50, 60,000 trading range down into as low as 29,000. And now we're back up there again and above it.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I don't know the definition. I just don't like it because particularly in Bitcoin, we're in such a volatile asset, and the price can go anywhere and it doesn't, like we know whether or not investors are buying or selling. And now we're looking at this and saying, okay, on-chain its structure is a bull or a bear mark. And that's what I really love about this. And then second thing to pull out of this is, you know, the chart I'm looking at right now, 2012 to 20 almost 22, so almost 10 years. In there, we've got two full-blown Bitcoin beer markets, right? You can define that as like a year or so of bearish structure. And we've got that there. And then in there, we've had three additional red strips, which were, look, that showed bearishness, but they only showed bearishness over no more than like a quarter, maybe.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Being shook out of the market. And this is looking at the price coming down and that compounded with actual investor behavior selling down or buying at the bottom. And so it's neat because it's a nice way of defining with on-chain metrics that this is a bearish phase and this is a bullish phase. Red is like a bear phase and green is a bullish phase and it's unlike the Wall Street definitions that are very fluffy, like what is it? Is it like a, do you know Kresten? It's like, is it a 20% pullback within a time frame, I think, two months or longer or something?”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This chat is more my understanding of it is correct. It's new to me and I don't know the exact calculation that was underneath, but it is using the price domain of these two, whereas I'm using the supply domain. How much of the supply is locked up? So therefore, it's demand and supply. But this is more looking at a ratio of the cost basis in which these two cohorts are ratio at each other. And like, I know it's a very clean child because it picks tops and bottoms of bullish and bearish phases relatively reliably. It doesn't get, it's a little bit delayed. I think it takes a bit of time for the price to move downwards or upwards and then it relies on the holders actually transacting coins in relation to it. So you know that a lot of times you see the price drop and there's no coins being transacted because no one's”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Reliability metric to say we are in for a bull run for the next six months or even longer. It could go for another year. So it's a very good time to be accumulating. We've just coming out of this reaccumulation phase and can see that on-chain very, very clearly as we did this dip, it was an accumulation. It was not a bear market.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are buying significant like $1 million exposure at a time. So that went like retail and they were buying and buying, buying. And that's why we're on peak right now, because it's been five months since they bought in. The last wave of those long-term holders sold to them. And so we're at that point now. They're aged like all the new guys we brought in in the first half of this year and now these long-term holders and they're at peak. And so they're providing the lockup that's necessary to drive us into the six figure. I'm pretty certain that we're going to go past six figures and bitcoin in the next. I can't say which month, but in the next six months looking at this amount is play structure. It's what? Another 50% claim will be there. I think we're going to do that pretty, almost certainly over the next six months, probably much sooner. It could be in a month or two or a week or two the way things are going, but this is a high.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It started to round out that we only had like a week or so of data or it looks about right, looks about where we'll round out. And generally we stay at peak levels. Generally we stay at peak levels for a few months, but you can't rely on that. What actually is happening is these guys that have these coins that have aged more than five months, they start to sell once we get a very, very strong rally. And then you'll start to see this number start to decline. You would have seen this in You would have seen this in the last run up from 10,000 to 60,000 from fourth quarter of last year that we saw effectively the last generation of those long-term holders start to sell down and these new guys came in to buy, right? It's those guys, you know, the high net worth purchases, they were like family officers, high net worth individuals.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Toddlers versus the hodlers that are potentially going to sell, coins that are under five months aging. That's always the bottom. It's always the bottom of a bear mark and an accumulation phase or a re-accumulation phase having pulled back from a prior run. And we're in that right now. And once we're at peak, right? We're at peak.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Tomorrow or the next day, or the next day, or the next day. And it just starts to drop slowly and decay. But at five months of age, there's a cliff and the behavior starts changing. It's like it starts to drop off a cliff. And, you know, if a coin can stay in a wallet for five months or more, it's very unlikely there's a sea change in action. That now starts to become more likely not to be sold and held for years and years and years. This thing takes obviously five months for you to reach that. So it's quite a smooth, reliable metric for the macro. And what we're doing here is running the demand supply over this definition of what is on the demand, which is hoddling and what's in the supply, which is the probability, higher probability of selling. And it's a very clean chart, right? Wherever you see a peak in”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Highly liquid side is just totally nets out to zero consistently. So the full on speculators and then you've got the middle kind of swing tradery part hoddly guy. So you can run these supply shocks and you get the original liquid supply shock. And that's a very good metric even down into trading sort of swing. And then you've got this, what we're looking at here, which is the long-term holder supply shop. If you were to look into wallets and, you know, because as coins enter a wallet, they kind of age like, you know, fine wine. And it's like, you can measure how long the coin stays inside the wallet. And there's a probability distribution that you can see. Like if this coin is dropped into a wallet and it's been there for one day, you know statistically the probability of it moving.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Particular wallets as being owned by exchanges, and there's a lot of data errors. So they created this metric, and it's called liquid supply. And it looks back and it goes, all right, for this cluster of wallet address spaces, because on the blockchain, obviously you only see addresses, you don't know who it is, they forensically cluster all of these address spaces together and they resolve them to individual holders. Now you've got the individual holders, you look back across their wallet history and you go, okay, there's three categorization. There's what I call the Rick Asley, you know, the guy that just keeps stacking and does not sell. For every three Bitcoins that's bought, no more than one Bitcoin moves out of or sold. So anything that's stronger than that is what you call illiquid. They're not selling. And then you've got two other tiers which get more and more liquid.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so there's a whole series of these metrics I've labeled supply shock. And this is the equivalent of on-chain demand and supply. It's an alternative to stock to flow. It's an on-chain model. And we're looking on-chain for different ways in which to measure demand, which demand is like if you're holding Bitcoin every day, you're saying that's huddled demand. I'm holding it. I want exposure to the asset. We look at coins that may potentially be supplied.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The dip in the best possible time. Maybe you're a CEO of a corporate and you want to enter and look good over the next six months without too much shareholder pushback.”
2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT