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Willy Woo

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2021-10-27
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2021-10-27
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  1. “Early 2021. And, you know, and all it took was the fears to be shaken off and we quickly reverted back there. So, you know, it's useful for these shorter time things. I find it more useful as an investor investing. I'm constantly buying and I'm sometimes selling, but mainly I'm buying and I'm like, I need the confidence of where this thing's going to go over the next six months rather than where it's going to go over the next four years. Though I think Plan B's got some new models there that's a little bit closer to the monthly models rather than the full broad macro, but yeah, it's quite different. I think you're more able to take a position, hold it for maybe six months, and then get out using these kind of models. It's more suited to like a swing trader, I would say, and a long-term investor who's looking to.”

    2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “Like a beer market, I can actually get a price model that goes, okay, now we're retracing down into a demand and supply metric that we once crossed, you know, three months ago, four months ago, and we can look at how the market valued it back then and go, well, that's where it should be if the market was feeling the same way about it. And so it can give you much more precise numbers compared to stock to flow. When we were down at I guess 35,000 to 40,000 a few months ago, but said look, this whole thing's out of balance. We're totally in balance right now with the underlying demand was huge was like everyone was bearish, yet this model was saying we needed to get to mid-55, about 55,000 mid-50s to find balance again and retrace to the prices that the market liked to value at it back a few months ago.”

    2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “It's a relative and a shorter time frame model I look at. The stock to flow, you can see it varies, right? It's a theoretical, but it doesn't look at the details. It doesn't look at how much is the real flow coming out because how much of that flow we thought was flow was from miners is actually now being hodled by miners. So it doesn't take that into account. So it's much more broad brushed, but it gives you absolute numbers because it's comparing it stopped to flow to with the cross asset model. It's comparing it to gold. And so it does give you this, and with the standard model, it's comparing to the last 12 years of history or more we've had. It's getting it gives you better absolute numbers. What I'm doing here, it gives you more relative, like I can say we're entering a phase now for the next six months or more of bullish numbers. And then if we're ever in a”

    2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “And then the underlying demand can push it up in a rally again. And then it's kind of good news in that we won't, if I'm right, have to wait through one year of 85% fullback. And so if you were to zoom out, I think we just, the chart looks like a random walk till saturation, whatever valuation that is, you know, if it's 100 trillion like plan B thinks, then it's a random walk up, down, up, down, up, down. And that doesn't just invalidate the stock to flow, right? It's not a demand and supply model, which is what I'm talking to here. Stock to flow just puts a number on it and says that's how much this network is valued next to real estate, next to gold, next to silver and these other assets based on their scarcity.”

    2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “Volume in 2018, you can see that the shape of the chat's completely different. Go on are the parabolics, huge wicks, big ups and downs, sheer verticals, and it's choppy over, you know, we can have like three months of down and then we have three months of sideways and then we might have a really hard run and then it's just weird compared to what maybe an OG would have gotten used to over the 2010 to 2017 first seven years of Bitcoin. We're in a different era and you can see it in the price chart. And so I don't think that we're going to have the same four year cycle if you were to think the end of the four-year cycle is a one-year beer market, like a one-year beer market and an 80% pullback. I think that that's gone. I think a lot of the FOMO gets hit on its head because you've got sal pressure coming from all of these new players.”

    2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “Bitcoin spot exposure through that. And the hedge fund and all the guys in the middle that are taking the yield out of it is really extracting the final value. And remember, this is an annual cost to hold it. So that effectively is a sal pressure because what was bought was not bought spot. You're only buying a fraction of it. The risk goes to profit and fees. So now we've got like much bigger sal pressures than miners and miners are minor. Miners are the minor sal pressure. No pun intended. So like it just does not look like the same dynamics where we had this pristine simple demand and supply within this network. Now we've got the full complexity of a new financial system with derivative markets and so forth. And you'll see it in the chat. Ever since derivatives came on board with BitMec's really strange around.”

    2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. “yield on the Akash and Carrie trade, hold the spots, sell the futures. And like the futures ETF has really incentivizing more of that to happen. So that guy that put in a million dollars to buy Bitcoin in the futures ETF. only be getting 800,000.”

    2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. “Another thing which is extracting fees and selling, effectively it looks like a sal pressure because if an investor comes in and buys say a million dollars of Bitcoin, They go through a futures ETF. Maybe they take and buy a million dollars of futures long contracts. So then the futures long contracts increases in premium of the spot, and you call that container. Contango runs away and gets bigger and bigger. And so that creates an incentive for Like a hedge fund, a doubts and neutral trading fund which says, okay, I'm going to buy the spot since the future's ETF is not doing it. I'm going to buy it as the proxy to hold it. And then they'll sell the futures to bring that Contango down because I was incentivized. And these guys will make, you know, we saw this in early part of this year. They were making like. To 40%”

    2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. “No, this is just the current Binances FTX bitmaxes of this world. That is already significant, probably over two times more cell pressure than Then the miners sell them, right? And then you take the ETF, right? You take not even with the latest ETF that's been accepted by ECC, but we take the grayscale. Hold 650,000 Bitcoins in its trust. That charges a 2% fee, and you can look at it. Since the premium's gone negative on it, it hasn't added new coins into that trust. So you can actually see it slowly dropping in coins under management. And that's from the 2% fee being deducted off it and sold. That is already 4% of the ethical max of the mining network, right? So now you've got another 4% that on top of the exchanges, and then you've got this now futures ETF. The futures ETF”

    2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. “Futures exchanges and they generate masses, billions and billions of dollars in fees. And some of that will be sold into cash because I'm generating it within crypto, they're making Bitcoin as their fee, and then they sell some of it because they've got operational costs. So that's a new supply. And if you were to take those numbers, I was talking to an OTC in the larger desks. Obviously, I've got more information because they handle some of these trades. That cell pressure is like 30% higher than the theoretical max of the 900 Bitcoins kuday is being mined.”

    2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. “Think so. I think with Michael Saylor portfolising the idea of Bitcoin as an investable asset class within investors inside the equity markets, I think that's opened the door. And just looking at the filing numbers and the reports, it looks like that started to happen in 2018, the first kind of companies that were listing, maybe even before that. Yeah, so there's that side of it. And that's just on the mining, the mining. The only thing we used to look at was the mining, which was a supply, which so that supply is slowly reducing and deviating off what the harvesting would suggest. But then you've got this other side of things, which is other supply coming in from sal pressure from exchanges, right? So, for example, now we've got very, very high volume.”

    2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. “To scarcely. So when we look at, like, a lot of what I do is look at the demand and supply. From looking at that, those numbers, and just on a back of the envelope kind of scribble of numbers, you can see that the dynamics change. It's like we used to have supply coming in from the miners, which we still do, but that's changed because now in 2020 onwards we've got a much more sophisticated, complex ecosystem. Miners are now not selling their coins, they're becoming public companies. They're raising through capital markets to hodl their coins because their investors want to expose the asset, not have it sold. So that's changing.”

    2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. “The stock to flow sure its numbers are based on the halving and on that four year, but if you were to kind of take the overall picture, it's essentially using the scarcity metric of this asset to value it. And of course that scarcity is changing, it's changing every day most predominantly it's changing every four-year harvesting. And it's stepwise, right? But like if you zoom out, it's just like you pick a level at any point and this is the scarcity of the asset and this is the price level that predicts, right? So it's kind of second order. It's like a second order influence, the four-year thing. It's really the scarcity at any time in that zone that I think it measures or it tries to predict. And it's not a demand and supply model, right? It's a scarcity model. You look at it.”

    2021-10-27 · We Study Billionaires · BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT