YouSaid · the spoken record

Bill McBride

lines on the record: 142
first: 2016-09-01
most recent: 2016-09-01
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Things that they thought were AAA, and they paid a higher yield than other AAAs. Well, gee whiz, you can sell them an infinite amount of that because people can arbitrage between the AAAs. Once you realize how that whole mechanism worked, then it was obvious how it happened. I just couldn't understand originally why they'd make loans that were never going to get paid.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I wish I had meant Tanta two years earlier as far as mortgages. Everything I know I learned from her. So as far as real estate, you know, I, It was so much fun early on reading through all the technical documents at all of the sites that would provide that as to how they gathered their data. And so I really learned a lot. If I'd known that a little earlier, maybe I could have put all the pieces together just a little bit earlier. It was a weird thing in 2005. To me, I could clearly see that the market was overvalued, that there was really bad mortgages, but I kept asking myself, well, why? Why are they making these mortgages to people that are never going to pay them? I personally would never loan money to people that aren't going to pay me. You know, it took me two or three years to finally really understand how they were rating based on 1990s methodology, the methodology had changed, that you had this real originate to distribute model that was just pulling, you know, people were investing in these.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If you're constantly bearish, I always say that blogs have an incentive to be bearish because it drives traffic. It's kind of like Wall Street analysts have an incentive to be bullish, you know, and it's the rare great economist on Wall Street who can say we've got a problem. And it's, you know, the very few bloggers are willing to go both ways.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You really can't look at the data this way. You need to do this. And it's something I knew really well. Go jump. And, you know, screw you kind of response. And okay, fine.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, they came out way after and it was all gloom and doom yellow journalism. But somebody sent me an article from it and I said, oh, a new site, you know, and I read it and I said, well, I sent the guy an email. And I got the rudest reply. And I went, what the hell? Here I am reaching out. I'm not publishing it on my site. I'm not embarrassing these guys.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Absolutely 100%. If I saw something wrong on another side or they saw something wrong in mine, we would exchange emails. Hey, FYI. Yeah, yeah. Hey, I think that maybe you're looking at this. And it was great because then I could correct my article. Zero Hedge came along. They didn't call the recession at all. Obviously, I didn't call the recovery. They didn't see the housing bubble. None of that because they started. It came out with away.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, back when I first started, and I'm sure this is true for you too, is that there was kind of like camaraderie among the blogs”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“At the Wall Street Journal, I read the article. It's just automatic. I read everything by Paul Krugman. I read, I have my group of people that I always read, and I branch out and read other people too. And sometimes they fall into that group. And then I'll start reading them. If I see their name, oh yeah, I think everybody has to have that filter. I can't waste my time going through 100 posts to find the one little minute. And way back when I don't think I've been to zero head site in five years.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's so overrun with craziness. I only have so much time every day. I think this is a good lesson for everybody, is you have to learn the sites or the newspaper journalists that you want to read. And every once in a while you branch out and pick up other people and then decide whether you want to keep reading them. If I see John Hilsenrath or Nick Tamaris.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You would say go for it. Yeah, I think anybody can do it. I mean, if they have something to add, I mean, you just have to work at it and be put up with a low traffic to start. Right. And how do you, it's not, I wouldn't consider a moneymaker. I mean, if it's somebody's career, but if it's somebody's sidelight.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, I just wrote and wrote and wrote, and people started picking up things. People liked what I wrote, picked it up, spread it around, you know, posts go viral. And, you know, so people ask me, well, how did you advertise? I didn't. How did you spread the word? I didn't. Ever since.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Go ahead. Have fun. You know, look, people ask me how I built my traffic. I could ask you how you built your traffic in my relent.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and then you get suicides, divorce. It's awful. The whole thing is you can't let that go on for five, seven years and hope it's going to resolve itself. And besides, I think Keynes kind of pointed out that you've got a problem and it may never, ever resolve itself. But if the Fed can step up and you can get some fiscal policy, gee, whiz, we turned it around from a financial crisis perspective. We turned this around better than just about anybody ever.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, instead of peaking at 10%, the unemployment rate might have peaked at 20 or 25%. Right. And it's not only those 20 or 25% that get hurt, it's the next 10 or 15% that are pulling way back. They're afraid they're going to lose their jobs too.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, and you kind of understand that except for all the people that are seriously injured during the downturn.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and that, and I felt sorry for him when he was a CEA because he was saying things that really didn't make sense in my view. And I thought, oh man, he's got to be political a little bit. Right, very. But I'm still really happy that he got appointed because you could have got anybody and we could have got somebody really bad who felt like the Fed shouldn't do anything.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He was slow to react to what was happening. But then once, I think one day he woke up and said, holy cow. And everything I've studied all my life, it's happening right now as I'm sitting here, you know.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, anything about the crisis, I always disagree with something, and I'm sure you would too. But I like to see other people's perspective of...”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I thought that was fun. You know, it's interesting because it's just from his perspective. Now, you and I were writing about, you know, anything that's... About the crisis.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay, and what they did with two professors, what they did is they looked at microdata available in each city to see how much household debt people had and how that related to the strength of the recovery or the depth of the recession. And it was very, very interesting and very insightful. So, you know, the more people could borrow, obviously, the more trouble they got into.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And yeah, because it's something I think that's very, very important to understand. And how people are going to be building different projects. And I think they did a really good job. It was very interesting to me. What else? I really liked Think what's the house of debt?”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, well, this book is about the shifting demographics and what it means for businesses and primarily for the real estate industry and housing. Enjoy.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it's, I don't know if it's available yet. I read a preview. It's by Chris Porter and John Burns, both real estate guys and Chris Porter's a demographic guy.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, you don't have to jump on anything. There'll be another good opportunity six months from now or a year from now. He goes, oh, yeah, the deal of the century comes along every year. That's great.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's the only thing he ever really understood that I did. Really? You come and see the Hart monitors and go, what the heck is this all about? That's hilarious. But, you know, when I started writing the blog, he understood that. But, you know, he had some funny sayings. One was the duel the century comes along every year. So, you know, you don't have to like 100.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I was very fortunate to have some very good CEOs that I worked with, Don Judson at Vitalcom. He was an absolute brilliant guy. I was kind of the number two guy there for a number of years. He just would see things. And so he was great. And Don Berry, two Dons, the two Dons, was at the Telecommunications Company. He was the founder of that. And just another. Brilliant positive person who just was a hard worker. Both those guys really promoted my career. So yeah, those two guys I want a lot to.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, millennials, and there could be a little bit more inflation as they compete for products. But I don't see it picking up dramatically like we saw in the 70s at all. All right.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, but I'm not in that camp. I think that we're not seeing the excesses yet. We're not seeing the inflation that the Fed really would need to fight. I think that's going to be slow to come. The demographics is improving in the U.S. Forget about the baby boomers. They're moving on. But we're getting that nice group in the 20s, early 30s.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, but I'm over the camp that recoveries don't, expansions don't die of old age. They die for other reasons. And so we need to see some real excesses. Some people, it's easy to point out excesses or imagined excesses. You could say, well, look at the bond market. The bond yields are so low. Clearly that's going to blow up someday.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was enormously people were pouring money out of their houses. And yeah, I think we're right at that starting to turn positive again. But that can go a long time positive. So, you know, and the economy, so as far as...”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen. But, you know, you look around mortgage equity withdrawal. It's still basically zero. Really? Yeah.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, I would say we're probably closer to the end in the beginning because seven years. We'll go another seven years. It could, actually, because of the slow growth. I don't think that's going to happen.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and after a while, you go, I'm tired of this. Let's chase away all the good commoners and just get it to the point where it's just garbage, and that's what they did.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But you know, we would talk with some, you know, as happens on every commenting thing. At first, it was really good. And we talk about different stocks. But one of the things I discovered at the time is I could mention 10 stocks that I thought were good, and nine of them would do great. And one of them would really underperform. And then every time I would say anything, people come back, weren't you the one who liked XYZ?”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and so that was well, you know, luckily I'm not sitting on any cash right now. I don't know exactly what I would do today. You know, it's funny, one of the things is I don't know what I'm going to do until I need to do it exactly. I like that I don't give advice on investing on a daily basis. You know, back when, because we were talking about the commenting and I participated in this site called Silicon Investor for a little while.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, it's not something I don't write about, but basically everything is at least fairly valued now. I don't see, you know, like in 2012, it was clear to me that you should be out buying as much real estate as you could. 2009, you should be jumping in as hard as you can into the stock market. Right. So, I mean, so what do you do?”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, if you can't work on the weekends to go to school, it makes life completely different. Sure. You know, not everybody did that. Luckily, a lot of people, when I was young, their parents paid it because it wasn't that much either. But so, you know, I do like the idea of making some education. Less expensive.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so I paid my way through school. I could work on the weekends, pay my rent, pay my tuition. I think that that's kind of what we're going to do.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What are they going to do? It's going to take three years. Yeah, you know, I'm not that concerned about student loans either. I think that there's things we can do, lower interest rates. For sure. You know, when I went to school,”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, in LA, you want your car bad for sure. That's how you get to work or get to anything. So, you know, people pay during the foreclosure crisis, people were paying their card loans, but they weren't paying their house loans.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, right now I think we're okay in most areas. I mean, a lot of people focus on the auto loans, but, you know, auto loans are the cars are easy to repossess. The technology that's”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They're definitely related. There's no question. And raising the minimum wage is going to help some. So there's a policy that we can do. I don't think that there's a big negative impact for, I mean, in most areas, especially in the coal field.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, well, we've crushed the unions other than the public unions, which have plenty of problems still. Because they have all these pensions that are crazy. So with the public unions, I'm kind of like, well, we should take a lot of effort and work on the pensions. But when we're talking about improving a lot of the lower 50%, I think... Getting some sort of bargaining for workers, whether they're unionized or some other way, I'm not a labor expert, but I do think that that's one of the keys”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think that one of the key things is you got to have wages up. You have to get wages up for the lower income workers. So how do we do that?”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Times we couldn't tell who owned the house. Well, first of all, owned the note, it was implemented poorly, terrible once it's implemented poorly, it's a bad system. There's no argument for me on that. The general idea I kind of like. Well, if it was done.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It costs you a lot of money. That's one of the things that Tanta was talking about. They had cut the back rooms so much that whole, they just kind of assumed we're never going to have foreclosures. When Tanta was working in that industry, that was very important to check every file to make sure every file was completely correct. You know, you had all every single piece of document, which is what they do again today.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Her predecessor Ed Ryan. Yeah, well, Yeah, but that, you know, to me, that made things a much, much worse. If they had just followed the rules and done things correctly, what do you do?”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I'm sure Well, you know, it really didn't help. It made things obviously much, much worse for everybody that the mortgage industry was cheating on the foreclosures. Constantly. Yeah. And so Pamba.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and about half the states are judicial, you've got to go to court. The other states, it's the straightforward system.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Foreclosures going on. Exactly. If you want to You get that price. Yeah. But it does take extra effort. You do have to explain that to them and go through. I do know a family member, my mom, who wanted to sell in like 2007 and moved to a retirement community. And it worked out great for her. But I went down, we went and looked at the local houses and the inventory was really expanding. And I said, let's underprice everybody. Right. And we sold it right away. And you know what? That guy's got a nice house and it's worth more than he paid for it. Ten years later, sure. Yeah, he's fine. He loves the house, but my mom got that money out. It made her retirement easy. But other people were sticking to their prices, you know, or chasing them down, which is probably the worst thing you can do.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source