YouSaid · the spoken record

Bill McBride

lines on the record: 142
first: 2016-09-01
most recent: 2016-09-01
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“To resell. Yeah, the fix and flip doesn't hurt the market, but the buy to rent. There's millions of homes that were bought to rent.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“How does that sound in terms of? Yeah, yeah, well, you know, that is a problem. And housing historically always has been this kind of chain reaction. One guy sells, then he can buy and another sell and buy and sell and buy. And so this situation we're in today is pretty unique. One of the things that's rarely mentioned is that the reason there's such low inventory, especially at the lower ends, is because of all those investor buying. Sure. Millions and millions of homes by rent.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But the methodology is transparent, so you can go in and it's the same as new home sales or housing starts. You can go and see what they count, what they don't count, how they add them in. That was very important during the crisis because you had to see like a new home sales how they canceled.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They're part of the conspiracy. That's always the answer you get. Those numbers are very, very good. And do they describe everything? No.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It is, it is impossible, and there are independent ways to measure some of that. And it looks good too. Whether you look at ADB employment, which is a private measure.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You could call them up and ask them questions. Oh, yeah. And they're very helpful. So it's possible to disagree that, oh, there's a different way to measure it, but to say that they're doing it fake is outrageous.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Academically driven. You can go to their website. You can understand exactly what they do, what they don't do, and any changes which have been minor over the years in how they gather data. So they're completely transparent.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think there's probably a better organization than the BLS as far as telling us being transparent on how they do their work.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well to me, housing, new home sales, housing starts, I always start there Employment, of course, is the big dog. So, I mean, if employment went negative for several months in a row, I would really be now.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Session anytime. Yeah, so I hope to hang around long enough to do that. And I don't see one in the near term at all, so I guess I'm going to be around for a while.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, first of all, when I started the blog, I didn't take any advertising for two or three years. I didn't even think about it. So it really was just a hobby. People said, Hey, take advertising. And so I eventually did. There's not a whole lot of money in it. But it pays for some nice dinners out”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, I'm talking about myself. So when you get a little older, now I'm still doing things, but yeah, I don't think I'm as excited about spending a lot of hours a day working. But you”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, and you're out of the prime working age. As you get past 60, which I can say happens, you have less energy. Oh, you're speaking.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that's unrealistic, obviously. I mean, employment is up substantially since 2009. You know, the economy is growing slowly from a GDP perspective. That's driven, in my view, by two main things. One is for some reason productivity is down, something that I don't think anybody can really control, at least measure productivity. But also, and a key thing that's very rarely mentioned is demographics. The prime working age population started decreasing, not workforce, but population in about 2010 and decreased for five or six years. And that's because of all the baby boomers.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, yeah. I mean, so those guys I chat with, I chat with several of them all the time. And it's, so it helps me focus on what's important in economics and how to understand it. And I think they like that I really dig through the data. And so it's kind of a mutual thing”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't know if I'm a leading light, but it's very nice, all those things people have said about me. But always had an interest in economics. I've always had an interest in housing. I study hard. I dig hard to try to understand the data. And I've worked with a lot of economists since I started the blog. A lot of academic economists that I call friends now.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, yeah. And the whole industry changed. They went away from the three C's where you're looking at credit and collateral and capacity to pay. And we just went to FICO scores.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, but you know, she was stunning. Before she started writing for the blog, I probably wrote longer pieces. And then when she showed up, she undergraduate degree was in literature. Her pieces were brilliant. One of her goals, she said, was to make blogs entries could be long and still well read, which she accomplished. She would explain mortgage issues in complete detail and all that stuff still on the blog. People from the Federal Reserve were... And she was scared because they were all the mortgage industry was pulling back on the risk management side. Hey, this money.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, this is what happened, and she commented a lot in 2005. In 2006, she disappeared. From the comments about six months later, she reappeared and she told me that she had been diagnosed with stage four ovarian cancer, had left her job, and she had stopped commenting because she wasn't able to and she didn't even think she was going to live. And so I then asked her, well, why don't you come and write for the blog if you're not working? Because she's working in the mortgage industry. And it took me a little convincing, but she started in, I think her first post was in December 2006. And almost two years before she passed away.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Call it my mortgage bank or friends, and they go, Oh, yeah, she's right. So I instantly corrected, I'm on my blog, and I'd credit Tanta, or she would say, hey, yeah, that's, you know, she was really sharp. She knew everything and she was very quick-witted. And so that's how I actually got to know my co-blogger through the comments. That's where I met her.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, she showed up and was commenting and every time she would either correct something I had said if I said something about the mortgage industry and I would.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That article. Well, you know, I'm sure some of your commenters were outstanding, many of mine were. I'm sure we're going to talk about my co-blogger Tanta at some point. I met Tanta through the comments.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, you know, and we don't have that for the most part. And, you know, those people that are racists are bigoted in some way, we've tried to abandon. But I keep it because a lot of the old timers are still there But they chat more than the economic content, and they're kind of friends. Right. So, you know, I just leave it for them. If people don't like the comments, then don't participate. Don't read the comments. Exactly. That's my view. And if there's ever the anti-Semitic things, I've banned so many people from that.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We do have a comment section where people have to register So you can't just get the drive by carters. So the trolling goes down, but it's basically off topic most of the time. Right. Buzz”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, I was really focused on trying to get the regulators to pay attention to it. And that was a very frustrating process because they were paying attention to it, but they couldn't do anything. Their hands were tied. And, you know, the regular person, you know, I started my blog. I was writing for friends and relatives. So I was mostly just saying, hey, If they asked me, I would tell them, don't buy. Please don't buy anything, but you put a blog out there in public and all of a sudden people start reading it.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Equivalent city. If you talk to somebody who was very concerned about housing, it could make a good argument on making bad mortgages, they would always go talk to somebody who was impressive background, who would say, oh, and house prices never go down. There's nothing to worry about. And so I think for the average person who's getting their information that way, it was difficult to see that there was a problem. Now, I run into people all the time to say, you know, I thought there was something really wrong. So most people in the back of their minds, especially people in areas like, you know, Southern California, Florida, Nevada, they were thinking, I think a lot of people were going, there's something wrong here.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And there were some award winning articles. Name some names. David Stretfield, who was at the LA Times at the time, now he's in New York Times. He won awards for his housing articles. They were excellent. And, you know, I mean, so there were plenty of good articles, but I think they got lost in the bad articles. And, you know, and you know how the balanced media works. Classic full.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, you know, I think that was one of the issues back in 2005 the media, I don't think. But to say that people missed it completely is wrong, there were some excellent articles”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I never understood why people say real estate prices never go down. I never understood it because there's plenty of evidence, even though we don't have the data that we have today, there was still plenty of evidence.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, but one of the things is if you remember, I'm sure you do back in 2005, is the data wasn't very good or very available, especially on house prices. We had what's now the FHFA house price index just based on the Fannie and Freddie mortgages, but we didn't have Kay Schiller publicly available or CoreLogic publicly available or several of the other Zillow, that wasn't even somebody's thought yet. And so now we have so much better data. And some of those guys, Killer and Corelogic, have published their data back to previous times. And you can see those ups and downs. And so the people that were saying there were no ups and downs there was no real good data for them to make that argument. And obviously they had never lived in Southern California because I'd seen the ups and downs in the house prices. Absolutely. And like there was a real boom in the 80s. House prices peaked around 1990 in my area and they slid all the way until 1996.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, you could see the ups and downs. There were times when my dad was clearly struggling financially. Luckily my mom was an elementary school principal. So she had a good steady income so they could offset each other.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's how we ended up there. That makes sense. Coronado Island in that whole area. Right. Oh, yeah, San Diego was booming the whole time I, you know, we moved there when I was five. And so, you know, I was there until I went away to college. There was boom time back in the 60s and 70s. But even then, there were big waves.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No kidding. My mother was a real estate agent. So it was I at least saw what he was doing and chatted with him about it after I started my career. I was more science and technology oriented. But I always have been interested in real estate. And so, you know, I mean, I had that little bit of a background of what they went through. And I saw my dad go through the ups and downs.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I do slip in a sentence or two here and there about what I think is happening with that data. And then every once in a while I will, like you're saying, write an overview piece of where I think we are in the economy and where we're going. You know, back in 2005, one of the things I focused on was I was actually calling up regulators and asking them why they're not doing anything. So I would write about Hal, which e the regulators are not doing their job. And here's why.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“10 to 1 with no money down. And so after she told me the story, I said, How can you afford that? When she started telling me about the teaser rate she had for the first year or two, I said, well, what happens when that comes due? And she goes, well, I'll just either, you know, either I will have more income or I'll sell the unit. And I thought, well, gee, if this is happening all over the place, there's going to be no one to sell it to. So I went home that day and started calling some mortgage bankers I knew. And I said, is this really possible? Oh, yeah. you know you don't have to have you know anything no income you know the ninja loans no income no jobs you know she was yeah no asset she was she was a great client she had a job you know”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This condo she bought for $400 and some thousand dollars and she had already told me she was making she had moved up this is an o000.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, you know, I was at the gym one day and I was talking to this attractive young lady who was a secretary for the Hurley t-shirt company. Oh, sure. Yeah, I know Hurley Surf and all that stuff. And one day she came in and she goes, Bill, I just bought a conductor.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, economics is always a hobby for me, and I specialize in that when I got my MBA, that was my focus. In the early 2000s, I had a few things that I was doing. In 2004, I remember thinking, what is a blog? And I think I stumbled across yours, the big picture, if you remember Angry Bear when it was written, the three PhD economists. And so that kind of inspired me. I said, well, you know, to really understand it, I'll just do one. So I'll start a blog. But I'm not going to write it about. Politics, like most of the blogs I saw. And what I want to focus on is housing because of what I was seeing in Southern California.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, we grew very quickly. We designed telemetry for most of the major medical device companies. They started using ours under their own name. And then we took it public in 96. And then sold it to GE Medical.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, if you're in particular wards in the hospital, postcardiac surgery, they like to take you off the bedside monitor and put you on a little telemetry unit so you can get up and walk around and still be monitored. Okay. And so that's the use for it. We also pick up other parameters in addition to ECG. And then we send it back to a central monitor that they can have a nurses station that can monitor the people walking around the hospital.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Than medical. Yes. And undergraduate Greece in chemistry. So, you know, it was kind of a mix of things. And so what we did is we We kind of revolutionized that industry because in the 80s was when everybody was making the transition to digital in a lot of different areas. And we used some of the cell phone technology to make the first digital cardiac telemetry.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A larger company? Yeah, well, we started it in the 80s. We were designing cardiac telemetry, which is. It's like a little box that you wear on you in the hospital that connects the, picks up your ECG and sends it to a central monitor in the hospital. It's for in-hospital use.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source