YouSaid · the spoken record

Bill McBride

lines on the record: 142
first: 2016-09-01
most recent: 2016-09-01
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“That's the Yeah, you know, but there's more than the National Association of Realtors there. They're complaining about state and national. Yeah, well, they are, clearly. But if you own a home and it's pretty much equivalent to your neighbor and he sold it for $600,000 and the agents tell you, well, you're only going to get $500,000 for yours, you think that agent's crazy”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Change the plugs, whatever. I think most places would require a permit. Makes sense. You have to have the electrical inspector to make sure it was done to code. To code, absolutely. But a lot of people do that without permits.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, it depends on what you do. Obviously, I think in any area you can retile your bathroom without a permit. I think if you move the electricity around. Yeah.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and they try to do some permitting with something permitted, but a lot of people put in a new bathroom without permitting it.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, something like that. But, you know, even that has obvious flaws. What if the people didn't maintain it? What if they put in a new kitchen?”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, yeah, and I think that it's very possible that that's being overstated a little bit. Who knows? I really don't know. Nobody knows. And I mean, there's a lot of estimating that goes on, but that whole industry is undergoing dramatic change right now. For sure. And the online sites have just changed it dramatically. So they could measure that a lot better. And so we've talked about how they might be missing some high-rise condos. existing home sales and commissions I think could be measured a lot better house prices I think is an interesting thing the FHFA does an excellent job and they have an expanded series it doesn't get the publicity it deserves”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'd like to see them do that. And the other thing is when they're calculating GDP, they're just estimating the percentage that the salesperson gets. Which has been.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, well, they sample what they do is they sample certain large multiple listing services and that's they base it off that and then every what they were doing is every 10 years they they would go to the census bureau and look at how many houses it sold and then they would try to rejigger it, yeah, if you will so”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But their role is a cheerleader. I mean, National Association Home Builder, their role, the home builders really want to know what's happening. And so when they gather data from them and distribute it, it's real. And same with Mortgage Bankers Association. I'm not saying the NARS data isn't real. They spin it. They spin it. They spin it very positively. And it's not really gathered in a very scientific way.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, those guys, they're straight shooters and they do an excellent job. National Associate Home Builder, same thing. The NAR, for some reason, they're more cheerleader oriented.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In housing, and then the first. Well, you know, when we're talking about the NAR, I have a good relationship with a lot of the industry people at MBA, Mortgage Bankers Association.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think housing is so important that I would definitely go through the methodology of each of those. One of the interesting things I think is for housing starts. If I'm remembering this correctly, it might be New Home Sales. They don't include certain condos. So if they're side-by-side condos, they include them, but if they're high-rise condos, they don't. And it's really complicated. And we're moving to where there's more of those being built. So we could have more units coming on the market than anybody's really aware of.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and they will. Household formation. And they will. And the problem with household formation data, see, there's an area that we could really improve. Everybody uses the HVS housing vacancy survey or whatever. And that data is not consistent with the annual census or the 10-year census. And the census bureau is aware of that, and they're trying to figure out why that data is so inconsistent. But that's something they could do a much better job of, I think, is. Household formation”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, yeah, one of the nice things about for multifamily is there's the demographics have been incredibly positive for them at the same time you had all these people moving out of foreclosed homes and looking for a place to rent. Now a lot of those houses were bought to rent and so that you would think, oh, well, you wouldn't have this multifamily, but you do have this huge surge in people in the 20s. And that's the main rental demographic. So there's a big cohort there. They're not going to buy, well, they're starting to move into the buying years. They're moving up.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's about eight to one. Okay, that's about maybe 10 to 1 even. It used to be closer, maybe six to one, existing to new. There's been...”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Was assisting home sales is just a mortgage. It's not a big deal. Yeah, that's the, yes, people do frequently buy a little more furniture. But from the direct sale, that's all it is, is the broker's fee and a few other fees. Right. Mortgages that adds to the economy. But when you build a new home sales, the whole price is new. It's that you've added to the existing wealth of the country. So it's a big deal. What's the rate?”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Take a three month. That's one of the reasons I do graphs anyway, is because it kind of can show you where you're at. Yeah, this would be a little spike up and”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Like today. It invariably. That's Oh, yeah, yeah. I would say, hey, it's great. It's a great, great number. I wouldn't. Lyphamine reversion. Yeah, yeah. And if you go back to that,”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, after the Great Depression, they started really collecting much better employment data. I was kind of hoping after the Great Recession that there would be an emphasis on collecting better housing data. I think they could improve the housing data.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, anytime you have something that you want to understand, the first thing you have to do is measure it because then if you say you make a policy change, well, how do you know if it did anything if you're not if you can't measure it? It's like losing weight or something. If you don't get on the scale, how do you know if you've really lost weight? I guess you could check your belt. Yeah, but that's another measurement system.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Back to the United States. Yeah, I mean, they're actually very good in the world. The United States is just excellent. Well, we start.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or they see their own circumstances and maybe believe that that's more widespread. Maybe for whatever reason they're seeing more inflation than the inflation data shows. And because of how they spend their money, no question rent's gone up faster than inflation. So if a rent's a big portion of somebody's monthly spending, they're going to think those inflation numbers are incorrect. So there's some of that. It's just that I think people are taking that people in positions of some power are taking that or commentators and just attacking data right and left. And like we were talking earlier, you have to have a good system of collecting data and you have to be transparent on the data. And that's what we have. The United States probably has the best data in the world.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now I got to go But you know, there are people that are rejecting data and going with what they want it to be. They want the data to be this for whatever reason, whether it's political or cognitive disease.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not just the unemployment data, but I'd have to go back through my piece, but I forget all the things I was pulling out. Some of it”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They wrote a beautiful piece. And I think this is probably the first time anyone got obituary for being a blogger. She was so famous.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because they quoted me in the New York Times talking about Tanta. I can imagine. And obviously they had her real name in that article too.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No kidding. That was the first time. I believe that was the first time my name came out. And then after that, my name is in the open, so I went ahead and just started saying, yeah, that's me.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, there's only so many people that could be writing what she wrote. And then very few of those were women. But so, you know, then as long as she wanted to stay anonymous, I stayed anonymous too. I didn't want pressure on her. And so the first time.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And she was very concerned that if she said certain things, she may never get another job. And actually, people in the industry knew who she was. Amen.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, first, I started that way just because I thought that's how you did it. I mean, I just, oh yeah, calculated risk. I thought it was fun. You know, people don't need to know who I am. The people who are originally sent to knew who I was. When Tanta came on board, Tanta was very concerned. She was very obviously very hopeful that she would recover.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, well, you know, I think I saw the other day there's more PR people now than there are journalists in America by two to one or something that explains a whole lot.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and then they realized that it's all complimentary anyway. Right. In fact, we would drive traffic for them. We'd mentioned that, oh, hey, wait, this guy had a good thing about this, and people would go read that traffic. And it got to the point where journalists would send me their articles and say, hey, if you like this, could you mention it or link to it? Because the editors were saying, hey, get some blog mentions. Yeah. It really helped them. When did that?”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, not that he's writing a site called The Economist View, which had the information, you know? So, you know, that's what they were comfortable doing, but not the referencing the blogs. It took a different, but they shifted and theyll.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, they would, the media would mention people like Professor Jim Hamilton in San Diego or Mark Thoma, but they would always mention that, oh, Mark Thomas, a professor at University of Oregon. Right. It was an official.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“At colleges. And it was immediately after that that we started getting mentioned everywhere. And a lot of the reporters I know wanted to mention us much sooner.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I wasn't trying to make any money. I wasn't trying to start a war. Tanta, when she came on, she used to call me up. She's furious. Yeah, she'd go, Bill, they ripped off your story or they ripped off my story. And so then she wrote a piece about how if you want to use our information, boy, you really should mention that where you got it from. That's just kind of standard practice in journalism. Stop steal.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, people would call me up and we would chat about a story, possible angles, ways to write it. And every time they would go, my editor will not let me mention that you're writing a blog calculator risk. Can I mention that you used to be the executive of this company and use your real name? I said, no. You know, if you can't, I'll help you on stories all you want. And that goodwill over time paid off. But I said, no, I just want to stay anonymous. I didn't know why at the time, but it was just kind of fun for me.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was awesome. You know, it was funny because one of my commenters wrote a fiction book partially in the comments called American Apocalypse. He's a lawyer, unfortunately, has passed away now. But it became a pretty good seller on Amazon. Really? And he wrote it in the comments, and people would, it was a fiction thing about, you know, if the financial crisis had really gotten bad. I mean, total Second Great Depression or worse. But, you know, it's just kind of like you and Belon Nation, except for he started it in the commons. And it was fun. It was kind of fun to read along. That's amazing.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And you could get a little bit of that on Twitter now. And somebody might take a picture of the parking lot. Of course, then you don't really know if it's real or not. That's become, and”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Investigation. It was awesome. You get that kind of local color. Somebody knew something about the company. Not insider information, driving by a company. No, just support.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and that's where I met a lot of great people, including my co-blogger. To me, I was talking about this a little bit earlier is I remember using Yahoo Finance when it first came out. That's right. You'd comment on a company and the comments are great. It didn't take long since they were all public for that just to go completely downhill and be completely useless.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, yeah, they have their topics. They want to talk about it's unrelated. It's completely different. In 2005, 2006, when I would post something, the topics were on topic. I mean, the comments were on topic. And it's exciting.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, in general, I don't mean your comments. Our comments, since you have to register, they're okay, but they're more clicky, and they're long-term people who just talk about off-topic subjects. Clicky not.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I went, wow, what happened there? And then something interesting happened is one of those readers was one of the three PhD economists at Angry Bear, and he called me up and said, hey. Could you write a weekly column about housing? Because I was completely focused on housing at the time. And so I wrote that”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And he mentioned something that I had written, and all of a sudden my traffic was a hundred readers a day out of the blue. A hundred.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Boiled frog. Yeah, right. It happened over time. It was interesting because at first, I'd say the first month because you see the traffic data, you know, I was just sending it to friends and relatives. All those posts now have lots of hits, but that's because people have gone back in time. Years later. Maybe in February 2005, Dr. David Alteg of Cleveland Fed or Atlanta Fed now, I guess. He stumbled on my blog somehow.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“16, 17 hours a day. I did sleep a little, and every once in a while they have to set my alarm clock for the middle of the night because I knew something crazy was coming.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's not negative yet. It's a positive, you know, I know several people personally that own maybe three or eight. They'd rather.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, then they have to move it to somewhere else. And what are you going to do? And those guys, rents have gone up substantially. They were buying these things with cap rates of 12, 15% when they bought them, and the rents have gone up dramatically. So on their original money, they're just cranking it. If they sell it, even if they can avoid paying capital gains.”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Individual investors or both. A combination. I know moms and pops that bought six, eight places. I know some larger investors that bought thousands. And for the most part, none of them are selling. Really? Yeah. Now, why is”
2016-09-01 · Masters in Business · Interview With Bill McBride: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source