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Danielle DiMartino Booth

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2020-02-27
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2020-02-27
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  1. It is a group of 30 of the world's most powerful central bankers and financiers. I wish I would have known that that existed because it took me too long to figure out that all central bankers appeared to be cut from the same stripe. And the reason that it is so difficult to extricate ourselves, it's because everybody around the world is using the same guidebook. It's the same playbook.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. Bite the bullet and get an engineering degree. And after the engineering degree, they can get a higher advanced degree in whatever they want. But to get an engineering degree, there's many different forms of engineering in this world, many different stripes, but get that as your base When I was in business school, when I got my NBA in finance, it was always those damn engineers who threw the curve. They're raging successes later on in life.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. So, I'm clearly most pessimistic about the printing press running 24-7. Making us even more reliant on the largesse of the Fed. Optimistic? I am optimistic because I'm close enough to my children and watching them get an education and learning about charter schools to begin thinking that there's some kind of grassroots desire to begin education reform, which I think is so much more important than anything else in this country is reforming education.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. I travel for fun almost as much as I travel for work. And I always try when I'm traveling for work to have a little bit of fun in there, whether it's one of my favorite restaurants in New York or if I'm in London seeing something that I would never see when I had this big speech in Australia. Wow, it was life-changing to see that beautiful country, unfortunately, before the big wildfires.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. Even though I did it internally for nine years. But after I left the Fed, I have learned how important liquidity is to the financial markets. I'm going to quote current Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and say, let's see what happens if you take the liquidity away. So I've learned to not fight the Fed.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. Goldfinch. Goldfinch is probably one of the best written books. Out there, period end. So if you've not read either of those

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. So I like to read books that are almost off in their brilliance. The book that's had the greatest impact on my career is the Lords of Finance, hands down

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. Here I am. He gave me a great respect for the School of Economics, and I gave him a great respect for the financial markets, and it's been one of the loveliest collaborations of my career.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. And he taught me how to be more accepting of the school of economics and be less resentful, even though my father may rest in peace. He taught economics and finance, and I said, Never will I ever go there. But he.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. So I would say that the most important mentor was Charlie Harvey Rosenblum. And Harvey took me under his wing. He was the director of research at the Dallas Fed. He was the right-hand to Richard Fisher.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. It's too long. You know what? But watching Italians cry in the rain when their engine blocks crack is something magical about that.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. With a transmission and a 5C just. It's been tried a few times And don't get me wrong. Like I said, recently you're a bit of a car guy, right? I went to my first F1 race, didn't want to leave. I'm like, no, no, surely you can go a few more laps

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. Investment graded that makes mom and dad sleep at night because they know it's money good. Well, guess what? I wouldn't own half of whatever's in there.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. Shouldn't bond buyers know that? Bianco has some insane numbers that he can trail out about the 46,000 firms and the 413,000 different registered investment advisors and the millions of accounts that exist are all basically look like the same damn high. One of the slices of that pie is an investment grade bond ETF that

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. I don't want to know, and a buddy of mine who used to work at one of the big three credit rating agencies, the stories that I've heard right out of her mouth, the management is twisting arms to maintain investment grade ratings. I'm like, No, thank you, not in my portfolio.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. And my muni bonds have never, I mean, throughout ups, downs, in betweens right now They're fat and they have been a 40-yard

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. Central banks are the only game in town. Hell, I did well in Puerto Rico, but you have to be bold in your allegations. Gold should be 10%. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. I think you have to be bold, bold, bold in your asset allocations. I really, really do when there's as much Global uncertainty as there is. I

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. Subject you've talked about of all people on planet Earth, the person who wrote the expose, I had to learn after the fact don't fight the Fed.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. Everything on And I get asked by people all the time. Well, even if we go into recession, the Fed can just keep printing. And even if we go into recession, the stock market's going to stay up.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. Even if it's temporary, and even if they make up some of it. I mean, it's like all of a sudden. In the UK, Janet Yellen, because the favorite buzzword on Wall Street now is transitory. It's all transitory. It's all transitory.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. They have flat, whatever. Germany's in recession, and you just saw some really ugly employment data post pre-coronavirus come out of Germany So that industrial slowdowns in China is for sure In whatever

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  23. Unless there's a global calamity that is big enough to put the world in recession. I'm not somebody who thinks that we can completely decouple the entire Canadian yield curve is inverted, all of it, all the way up to 30 years. Mexico, where I'm presenting at the Bank of Mexico, Bonxico next week. They're in recession. They're not getting out of recession anytime soon. We've never not been in recession. If Canada goes, Germany for sure is in recession as well.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  24. I say as long as the Fed is printing, they cannot be fought. That's my biggest mistake in my entire career was that I knew when I left the Fed with PTSD in a bad way. I knew in my guts that as long as they printed enough that they were going to hold up risky asset prices, it didn't matter what valuations were. That hasn't changed. I had to learn it the hard way.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  25. It means it's not good. It means that, and this was something that was, again, internally debated at the Fed, if you want to impose these capital requirements, if you want to impose these compliance requirements, do it for the big banks, but for God's sake, don't do it for small and mid-sized lenders. If you do, they're going to go way out on the risk spectrum and make the crazy commercial real estate loans that they've got right now.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  26. Every time I hear a central banker talk about how much the sanctity of the financial system and how much stronger our banks are, I'm like, you might want to reference your own data, Federal Reserve, on commercial real estate loans. On bank balance sheets. And see that they've gone through the roof because of regulatory costs that were associated with Dodd-Frank, small and mid-sized banks in this country are not in good shape.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  27. Tall as skyscraper in Midland Odessa, so those are going to be the tallest thing between Dallas and Los Angeles. But, I mean, that funding was pulled. It would have ended up just about as good as the late 1980s Rolls-Royce dealership in Midland, Odessa.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  28. I was invaded by living in Texas. I'm like, what is this Greenwich Private Equity Firm doing down here? Well, they got making it rain. That's what they do. They had some money. I mean, they were going to build the...

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  29. I don't even think that that would fly given the sensitivity, given the wall. Look, every time there's been a wall of refinancing, you would blow up what's left of the shale patch right now. Because there's so much paper that has to be refinanced this year. And God help us next year. For the next five years, it's like $71 billion, 64% of debt. To be brief announced in the next five years.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  30. We've discussed this again. You can try and see what happens if rates rise if you step back. Don't go to 10% on overnight. Go to 4% or 5% and see what happens. See how...

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  31. Oh gosh, it's all borrowed money. No, no, no, no. I just wrote a recent paper on this. The growth of the Fed's balance sheet literally moves in lockstep, in lockstep with the growth of the energy industry. I didn't say it was free to build. I said it employed. It employed people who don't have college degrees. So would infrastructure, so does.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  32. This is what we've been seeing, what we saw in the automobile sector. Worldwide as China urbanized, which was just a huge boom to the current recovery. That's what we saw with fracking is it put blue-collar people to work.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  33. And by the way, it puts a lot of blue collar workers to work for years. This is fantastic for years at a time. This is great.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  34. I don't even know how fiats get on the island because there are some potholes here in New York that are big enough that they could swallow a small car. Right. I mean, you want to spend money, for God's sake, spend it on infrastructure. Everybody.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  35. Very first, I've written a weekly every single week since I left the Fed in June of 2015. The very first thing that I wrote was how Congress abdicated its authority to the Federal Reserve. 100%. It's time for the fiscal authorities to do their damn job.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  36. Australia is an aberration, but in a good sense of the word, they never went to the zero bound. And that was our fatal flaw, the Bernanke doctrine was the fatal flaw, the idea that we absolutely had to go to the zero bound. I think that Jay Powell is so correct in pushing back against negative interest rates. I even hope he stops at one

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  37. Something that is literally extremely flammable. So now there are certain high-rise buildings in Melbourne and in Sydney that you kind of know not to buy at.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  38. But they don't own our biggest port. They don't have a 50-year lease on our biggest port in Melbourne. They don't own an island I went on the island on the Great Barrier Reef. They haven't put up all of these skyscrapers. That, by the way, are wrapped with something that is extremely flammable. So

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  39. How far can this be 28 years in counting, but we have not had a benefactor named China I had a speech in Australia. I was there for 12 days. Just about everything is not made in China but owned by China.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  40. I mean, you got to go back to biblical times before you had a banking system to just say, oh, it's going to be really easy. Let's just do this debt jubilee. Did somebody say private debt markets? Oh, God, what are we going to do with those? It's more complicated than what it's made out to be. And I think somebody at the Fed, somebody has got to deal with having the beginning and the end of a recession.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  41. The Fed should set interest rates more the Fed needs to let these markets somehow someway normalize. If you talk to people who say that the Fed is going to blow up the balance sheet to $10 trillion, it's going to ease into the next recession, ease even more through the next recession, and eventually we'll have a debt jubilee and sing kumbaya and walk off into the sunset. I'm excited.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  42. It is It's not practical. Not in the world we live in. We can deglobalize all we want, but we're never going to unglobalize. There's a difference between the two

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  43. Disarmament. No. I mean, look at what the Chinese have done for everybody who always says, God, you've got to end the Fed. Just get rid of it. I'm like, look at what the Chinese can do with our intellectual property. Okay, now put it on steroids and see what they can do to our financial system.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  44. Amen. And they've really just opened some very nice hotels. There's plenty of room for the tourists. But go downtown, stay downtown. For heaven's sake, don't get stuck in that traffic.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  45. The aging of Austin, and now you have Fifth Street, which is where people my age go because they don't want to go on 6th Street because germs are no longer for sharing at our age. So, you know, but

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  46. Up in Maine, always the first person there at the lodge, so you can suck up all the bandwidth and turn your Bloomberg on.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  47. Investors don't fight the Fed, but there's one cohort out there that doesn't fight the Fed harder than the people who don't fight the Fed, and that's the Fed itself. The Fed never fights itself. It never fights the market. Fights WIRP new. Type it into your Bloomberg. It never fights expectations of rate cuts. And it never even fights expectations of Fed moves when it came to Ben Bernanke was completely guided in terms of the size of the tapering of quantitative easing way back when by what the survey from the New York Fed was saying. The Fed is guided by the financial markets and it will do what they tell it to do.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  48. I don't know that the market would end up at 9 or 10 percent, but I know that if the market was to end up at 4 or 5 percent, given that the Fed wants to put a new replacement for LIBOR out there, it would be the worst possible development.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  49. I don't think we know. Barry, I think that we would see rates be a lot higher than they are. It's a little problematic when you're running trillion-dollar deficits.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  50. I would like to see the markets figure it out without having the pacifier. Lison, thank you. Being the pacifier being the Federal Reserve. We only had a 2% portfolio insurance position against the stock market. Capitalization in 1987, that was just 2%. The risk parity trade is only about 10%. So let's just throw it up against the wall. Let's see what happens. Let's let credit volatility come unhinged and see what happens.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source