YouSaid · the spoken record

Danielle DiMartino Booth

lines on the record: 143
first: 2020-02-27
most recent: 2020-02-27
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“They were lying, but they didn't have to lie for long because the meltdown in the market catalyzed by the shutdown in the credit markets, shutdown share buybacks, people got afraid enough in Q4 of 2018 scared Jay Powell. Jay Powell knows one thing, October 2012, FOMC transcript. QE is blowing a fixed income duration bubble across the entire credit spectrum, that's a quote.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You've got redemptions on high yield ETFs. You have the IMF, the BIS, all these global entities are like JPAL, you got a problem on your hands. The collateral backing these fixed income ETFs was trading by appointment only. Spreads were gapping out. Yields were going through the roof. And you have this quiet at first, then it got really loud chorus of CFOs on Wall Street saying, we're going to behave and stop buying back our stock because we're going to have to pay attention to our balance sheets.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay, so I'm going based off that. What happened on Halloween 2018 when Moody's downgraded General Electric's debt was what was the game changer for JPAL. JPAL still doesn't give a damn about the stock market. But he cannot not care about the bond market, which is whatever it is, almost $10 trillion. 74% of GDP non-financial debt all-time record high in this country. So Halloween, GE debt gets downgraded. November 14, 2018, the high-yield bond market shuts down. Goodbye, good night, Irene, for $41 record days.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I'll tell a really quick story because it's not the stock market you have to be directly concerned with. It's keeping the bond market open.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The 2009 ugly contraction in world trade, ugly recession. And here we are with this phenomena we're staring at. So we have rising continuing jobless claims and contracting world trade. And Bupkis going on in the economy.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Forget coronavirus. This thing's going to fall off a cliff. But my buddy Lacey Hunt taught me that you go back to your recession starting in 80. If a U.S. recession is accompanied by contracting world trade, it's a nasty recession.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This is all pre coronavirus. No, no, no, no. Oh, really? This is May through November. We only have a small snapshot because it's extremely lag data.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You've never seen global debt. Right now we've seen year over year there's another global debt monitor. The next one for it's very lagged. The next one's coming out in December. But you've seen that going down on a year-over-year basis since I believe May of 2019.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It is a little misleading. Set that aside. Set that aside. We've still seen starting in October four consecutive months of year over year increases in not seasonally adjusted continuing claims. That is, the number of Americans collecting unemployment insurance on a year-over-year clean basis has been increasing since October.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But some states like North Carolina, there are a handful of states that permanently shortened the length of time. Right. That you can collect unemployment insurance. Some states made up for the extra expense by raising the premiums that employers had to pay for unemployment insurance.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We'd look at that number, we follow it very closely, and it is off of the lowest base you can imagine because ninety eight plus percent of people who qualify for unemployment insurance. Now, some states have made it a lot harder and more expensive, and they've upped the premiums on these. So Moody's has done some good work showing that you don't even have the same percentage of Americans on unemployment insurance right now, which is why they came to the conclusion that jobless claims are inherently understated because in the aftermath of the crisis, a lot of states made it harder and or shortened the time that you could be on unemployment insurance.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think that you have seen some very strange things happen. So we follow at Quill not seasonally adjusted, continuing unemployment claims. Because just because you apply for unemployment insurance doesn't mean you're going to get it”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it is kind of shocking because so is global trade. So are several other metrics that have never coexisted without being in recession. So something is intervening to make everything better right now. If the money that's being pumped into the system is not going into any kind of lending of any sort because it's not, then it has to find a home.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The Fed is about a hundred billion dollars a month run rate as things stand right now commercial industrial lending is at the largest banks is negative on a year-over-year basis.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That is a whole nother story, and that's what happened with QE2, and that's what happened with QE3, it was time to begin normalizing and the fear factor kicked in.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I would agree with that. But we've had 23 months of core CPI north of the 2% target If you were to make one tweak to the PCE, the Fed would have long since started to normalize rates. They're literally hiding behind a metric that they know and recognize is broken. I'm fine with the PFI. I'm fine with it because we'd have been normalizing a long time ago.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So in 2009 and 2010, internal debate occurs. Everybody inside the Fed is like, we might not have the right inflation metric. We might have seen this crisis coming had we incorporated something like, oh, I don't know, real estate and financial asset prices into some inflation metric. So it was decided that something had to be done because it was broken. And then they did nothing. And then I got really pissed off and wrote fed up.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, at which point Jim Bullard, who knew he had a sense of humor, raises his hand and says, let me get this straight. This is how we make monetary policy in America, crap in, crap out? That's the gist of it because the PCE uses as an input Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement rates, which is an absolute insult to every American who's actually paying for real overpriced health care.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So some trepidatious Fed staffer in the back of the room in the Eckles building raised his hand and said Well, if we don't use it our models are gonna break.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In my life, at least, it's a minimum headline CPI. Why don't we have something more realistic and reasonable that we're following?”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To be vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. So his very first FOMC meeting, Fisher says, I only have one question. Why on earth do you use this convoluted PCE?”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, so Stanley Fisher was vice chairman of the Fed for a while. Jim Bianco one afternoon we spent an entire afternoon fishing trying to debate why on earth the godfather of central banking, who Ben Bernanke had on speed dial in case he had an existential crisis. Why is this legend of central banking would come out of retirement?”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And right now, rents are going up at such a fast pace, and we haven't captured that in the CPI. And we could talk about that all day long.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Both of them have their problems, but one has a lot bigger wart than the other. They both understate housing, both of them.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm not opposed to what you just described. And there are certain rationale as long as we can keep the quality up. But you did at some point ask me why I wrote this book.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because, by the way, Social Security and Medicare are no longer actuarial theories. They're cash flow issues over the next few years.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Health care for all. If you're talking about student loan forgiveness, forget the pony part. You're still talking about doubling the debt. Quickly.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay, my hair was on fire when he said that. But other than that, it was great. I mean, the whole rest of the play, it was fine.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Absolutely not. But again, To look out at a crowd as President Trump did recently and to say to Kevin Wars, you know, if you were there right now, at least I'd have negative interest rates just like Germany, and I'd be getting paid for my debt. I mean, these are the things.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We do, and the $25 trillion you're throwing out there has nothing to do with modern monetary theory at all. That's what we're going to have like in 18 months, for God's sake, as quickly as the deficit is growing. But what they're talking about is something more that's upwards of closer to 50%.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We have been, but that does not mean that foreign buyers of our debt have completely stepped back. Now, I will say that China has methodically and for years been reducing the maturity of U.S. treasuries with no negative.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“MMT. But the thing about MMT is, hey, again, go back to the fact that we do have reserve currency status, but we can't piss all over it because we are. You have been.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We care about it because we don't have the same latitude that Japan has because Japan's sovereigns are mostly owned by the Japanese internally inside the country”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But it's a good way to kind of hide the evils of having 23 trillion, whatever the debt clock says downtown, 23 trillion in counting of national debt.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If we'd been borrowing way out there, then our interest expense would be a hell of a lot higher. And nobody wants that interest. I don't know if it would be them. How much higher would it be? Of course it would be higher.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Have, but you've also seen the duration of the treasury holdings of the United States until this 20-year bond issuance that was recently announced. You've seen the duration of Treasuries come way in while the United Kingdom has gone the absolute opposite way. Because if we were to be borrowing money at the maturities where we should be borrowing money, 50, 100, you name it. I'm with you on that also.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“How is the fit? As long as you keep government debt super, super, super cheap, then you can keep these programs alive and well, as opposed to removing your legal framework. So you're making it a job of the private sector. I mean, it is time to make.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. And you ask the average one of these people who are basically living off the government, how much would you have to have an entry position job pay you in order for you to come off the sidelines and work? And it's a heck of a lot more money than they would be getting as a starting salary.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, look, I think that there's a little bit of confusion here. Look, when you are facilitating Uncle Sam to quietly blow up debt. And debt throughout the Obama administration grew quickly. A lot of this was in order to fund fiscal spending. But if you're teaching the lesson to the powerful politicians that run the country, that there are absolutely no ramifications for, you can run up as much debt as you please because it's going to be just about free. Okay, then you're going to cause a sclerosis, an atrophying in the labor force. So it doesn't matter how hard the Fed tries to pull somebody off the sidelines. If they're not qualified to fill the position, it's not going to be filled.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No. But that second employment mandate is what has caused the Fed's mission creep and the lower for longer. They're trying to pull that one last employee in off the sidelines. Really? At the expense of”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But nevertheless, that was a crucial error made on the part of Congress. And people are like, you know, you'll never be able to get Congress to say that the Fed can do negative interest rates or buy corporate bonds or buy stocks. And I'm like, when push comes to shove, Congress will vote for anything.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, out of stagflation, high unemployment, and high inflation. Yes, yes, yes. Misery index was through the roof. I get it.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, there is that second mandate that has caused the Fed to completely go off the rails. And that is minimizing the unemployment rate. Maximizing employment. That was given to them in 77, 78 by Congress.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I would think that the best role for the Fed to play is making sure that the dollar you pull out of your wallet, A, you can still pull out of your wallet. Sorry, Ken Rogoff. But B, is worth the same amount of money tomorrow that it is today.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it wasn't so much Alan Greenspan, the deeply flawed chairman had he not had two successors. In his wake, who adopted identical philosophies, it's just each iteration of successor was even more afraid of their shadow than the prior.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“On what basis? I mean, look what happened with this repo thing recently. That's a few huge banks. Basically throwing their weight around the financial system.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So they're front running the Fed. They've been taught since the weeks and the months that followed 1987 that they can front run the Fed.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Was the hardest thing to get past the lawyers for the books. In the days and the weeks and the months that followed, he's got the guys on the New York Market's desk calling Bond desks all across the street. And saying, we're about to inject liquidity just so you know wink, wink.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Absolutely. On october twentieth, instead of presenting in Dallas, Texas, he got on an airplane, flew back to Washington, DC, released a statement that said the Federal Reserve in my new popular life is now going to backstop the banking and financial systems. Okay, the middle part I put in there, but the banking and financial systems were part of a very short statement that the Fed released the day after the stock market crash.”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Some schmo had to wake up and write it at 5 30 in the morning and he had his stock market briefing every single day on the”
2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source